FMCG — personal careHistorical case study · data as of 28 Jul 2026 · published 31 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Emami — 100-point case study
How Emami looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 28 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
8 bullish · 31 neutral · 0 caution · 10 bearish — the picture was mixed.
Price chart
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 28 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope -0.12%/day
Bearish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.12% a day — a short-term downtrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return -11.8%
Bearish
The 100-session trend line was down (-0.08%/day) and the stock was -11.8% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -27.7%
Bearish
Compared with a year earlier the price was -27.7%. A weak year for the stock.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 405.10 / 30W 437.55
Neutral
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 435.00→428.75; lows 376.40→392.85
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
15.9
Neutral
ADX at 15.9 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 19.3 / –DI 13.8
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
413.48 (-1.5%)
Bearish
Close of 407.10 was 1.5% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
406.36 (+0.2%)
Bullish
Close of 407.10 was 0.2% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
468.95 (-13.2%)
Bearish
Close of 407.10 was 13.2% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 410.63 / 21E 410.67
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 28 Jul 2026.
The 50-day average was 13.3% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
-3.5% in 20 sessions
Bearish
The 50-day average fell 3.5% over the past month — declining.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
413 / 406 / 420 / 469
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
413.83 (-1.6%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 413.83; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
47.7
Neutral
RSI at 47.7 was in the neutral 45–55 zone.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 0.21 / signal 0.75
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-0.86 → -0.54
Bullish
The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.25 (bands 400.52–426.43)
Neutral
%B of 0.25 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 6.3% (0th pct of 6M)
Caution
Band width was at the 0th percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown).
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹12.15 (3.0% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹12.15, or 3.0% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
26.4% vs 1Y 26.0%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 26.4%, close to the one-year level of 26.0%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
386.15–435.25
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
0.69
Neutral
A beta of 0.69 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.39× / 5-day 0.95×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.39× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.95× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.03
Neutral
Average volume on up days was 1.03× that on down days — balanced.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹25 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — moderately liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
405.05 / 393.80 / 385.50
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 405.05, 0.5% below the close, then 393.80, 385.50.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
418.80 / 433.92 / 477.00
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 418.80, 2.9% above the close, then 433.92, 477.00.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 412.28 | R1 429.82 | S1 389.57
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 412.28; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 412 | 38.2% 434 | 50.0% 452 | 61.8% 470
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month fall from 528.00 to 376.40, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 412.18.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 634.20 / L 376.40
Neutral
The close was 35.8% below the 52-week high and 8.2% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
none
Neutral
No unfilled price gaps in the last six months.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
falling channel
Bearish
Rule-based pattern scan: falling channel — successive lower highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 394.75–435.00
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 394.75–435.00.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary red candle
Neutral
On 28 Jul the candle opened 414.00, ranged 406.50–419.50 and closed 407.10: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 402.74–426.70; Tenkan 407.18 / Kijun 413.93
Neutral
Price was inside the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — an undecided Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -0.5% / 3M -11.4%
Bearish
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 11.4 points over three months and underperformed by 0.5 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M -12.9%
Bearish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 12.9 points behind the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
5 bullish · 18 bearish · 25 neutral · 1 caution
Bearish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 405.05, resistance 418.80. This is a description of the chart on 28 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 28 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Jun 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 28 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
22.9×
Neutral
At ₹407.10 the market valued the company at about ₹17,750 crore, or 22.9× the ₹774 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
6.07×
Neutral
Market cap was 6.07× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹2,924 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
4.70×
Neutral
The company was valued at 4.70× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹3,780 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
18.7×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹162 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 18.7× trailing operating profit of ₹959 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
4.4%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹4.4 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
3.13
Bearish
P/E of 22.9 divided by 3-year profit growth of 7.3% a year gives a PEG of 3.13. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
2.46%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹10 a share, a 2.46% yield on the ₹407.10 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹17,750 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.18 lakh crore the company was a small-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹163.66 vs ₹407.10
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹163.66; the price was 149% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
-0.8%
Bearish
Revenue for FY26 was ₹3,780 crore, -0.8% versus FY25.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
4 strength(s) · 2 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company is almost debt free; Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 28.5%; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 52.9%; Debtor days have improved from 42.3 to 33.2 days. Weaknesses: The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 5.58% over past five years; Tax rate seems low. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
8 bullish · 10 bearish · 31 neutral · 0 caution
Neutral
On the numbers published by 28 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture was mixed. Valuation: P/E 22.9×, P/B 6.07×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 28 Apr 2026 – 28 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
07 May 2026Emami board approves agreement to acquire 60% stake in IncNut Digital — Emami's board approved a share subscription and purchase agreement to acquire a 60% stake in IncNut Digital, whose subsidiary IncNut Lifestyle Retail owns the personalised beauty and personal care brands Vedix and SkinKraft. source
21 May 2026Emami Q4 FY26 consolidated net profit falls 11.7% YoY to Rs 143.2 crore — Q4 FY26 revenue from operations declined 3.9% YoY to Rs 925.1 crore, EBITDA fell 14.9% to Rs 186.7 crore (margin 20.2% vs 22.8%), and PAT fell 11.7% to Rs 143.2 crore. FY26 revenue was Rs 3,779.5 crore (-0.8%) and PAT Rs 775.3 crore (-3.4%). The stock closed down about 3% on the day. source
02 Jun 2026Emami completes acquisition of 59.69% stake in IncNut Digital — Emami acquired 2,05,767 equity shares of IncNut Digital, a 59.69% stake, making it a subsidiary; the remaining 0.31% under the agreement was pending. The filing was dated 1 June 2026. source
30 Jun 2026Promoter entity Suraj Finvest releases 1.6 lakh pledged Emami shares — Promoter group company Suraj Finvest released 160,000 pledged Emami shares (0.04% of share capital) held with DCB Bank; its encumbered shares fell to 10,618,992, or 2.43% of total share capital. source
What happened next (28 Jul 2026 → 30 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹407.10 to ₹359.75 by 30 Oct 2026 (-11.6%) while the Nifty 50 moved -3.9% — underperforming by 7.7 points.
Highest ₹416.20 on 07 Aug 2026; lowest ₹357.00 on 30 Oct 2026.
S1 405.05: broken on a closing basis on 30 Jul 2026.
S2 393.80: broken on a closing basis on 04 Aug 2026.
R1 418.80: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 433.92: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 04 Aug 2026): revenue ₹1,039 crore (+14.9% YoY), net profit ₹139 crore (-15.2% YoY), operating margin 22% vs 23% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
04 Aug 2026Emami Q1 FY27: revenue up 15% to Rs 1,039 crore, net profit down 15% to Rs 138.9 crore — The board approved Q1 FY27 results on 4 August 2026. Consolidated total income rose 14.3% YoY to Rs 1,057.71 crore while net profit fell 15.4% to Rs 138.94 crore; the tax rate rose to about 29%. The shares closed 3.5% lower at Rs 391.8 that day. source
25 Aug 2026Emami shareholders approve re-appointment of Harsha Vardhan Agarwal as MD at 43rd AGM — At the 43rd AGM on 25 August 2026, shareholders approved the re-appointment of Harsha Vardhan Agarwal as Vice-Chairman and Managing Director for five years from 1 April 2027 and a revision of his monthly remuneration from Rs 30 lakh to Rs 34 lakh. source
29 Aug 2026Company Secretary Ravi Varma to step down from Emami — Ravi Varma, Company Secretary and Compliance Officer, resigned on 28 August 2026 with effect from 31 August 2026; no successor was named in the announcement. source
17 Sep 2026Emami board approves Rs 282 crore open-market share buyback at up to Rs 475 per share — The board approved a buyback of up to Rs 282 crore through the open-market route on stock exchanges at a maximum price of Rs 475 per share. The shares rose about 5% intraday on the announcement. source
09 Oct 2026Emami closes buyback early after purchasing 73 lakh shares — Emami closed its open-market buyback at the end of trading on 9 October 2026, ahead of schedule, having bought back 73,00,000 shares for about Rs 281.24 crore (99.73% of the maximum size) at an average price of Rs 385.26. source
Educational summary. On 28 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture was mixed. Over the next three months the stock moved -11.6% against -3.9% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Emami today.
Method designed by our founder, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 31 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction