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Oil refining & marketing Historical case study · data as of 06 Jul 2026 · published 09 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

Indian Oil Corporation — 100-point case study

How Indian Oil Corporation looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 06 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: IOC · BSE: 530965
Close on 06 Jul 2026	₹141.68
Market cap then	₹1,99,699 crore
Valuation	P/E 4.6× · P/B 0.91×
Momentum	RSI (14) 50 · 1-year return -6.6%
Next 3 months	-10.9% vs Nifty 50 -9.0% (to 08 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

9 bullish · 30 neutral · 0 caution · 10 bearish — the picture was mixed.

Fundamental — 50 points

13 bullish · 32 neutral · 3 caution · 1 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Data note: Daily prices are from EquityPandit (Yahoo Finance pages could not be fetched) and are not adjusted for dividends.

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 06 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope +0.13%/day	Bullish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.13% a day — a short-term uptrend. Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return +4.4%	Bearish	The 100-session trend line was down (-0.26%/day) and the stock was +4.4% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish. Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return -6.6%	Neutral	Compared with a year earlier the price was -6.6%. Little net progress over twelve months. Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 140.86 / 30W 152.20	Neutral	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages. Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 148.47→148.24; lows 130.53→133.55	Neutral	The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure. Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	17.0	Neutral	ADX at 17.0 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction. Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 32.5 / –DI 20.3	Bullish	+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure. Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	141.57 (+0.1%)	Bullish	Close of 141.68 was 0.1% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	141.29 (+0.3%)	Bullish	Close of 141.68 was 0.3% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	154.87 (-8.5%)	Bearish	Close of 141.68 was 8.5% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 141.64 / 21E 141.60	Bullish	The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 16 Jun 2026. Bullish 9-day above 21-day · Bearish 9-day below 21-day · No neutral zone.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	last death cross 29 Apr 2026	Bearish	The 50-day average was 8.8% below the 200-day. The most recent signal was a death cross on 29 Apr 2026. Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13	50-day SMA slope	+0.2% in 20 sessions	Neutral	The 50-day average rose 0.2% over the past month — flattening. Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14	MA ribbon alignment	142 / 141 / 150 / 155	Neutral	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range. Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	141.38 (+0.2%)	Bullish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 141.38; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit. Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	50.2	Neutral	RSI at 50.2 was in the neutral 45–55 zone. Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	none	Neutral	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price. Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD 0.11 / signal 0.27	Bearish	MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative. Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	-0.12 → -0.17	Bearish	The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening. Bullish histogram rising (momentum improving) · Bearish histogram falling (momentum weakening) · No neutral zone.
20	MACD vs zero line	0.11	Bullish	MACD above zero means the 12-day EMA was above the 26-day EMA — a positive momentum regime. Bullish MACD above zero · Bearish MACD below zero · No neutral zone.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 35.5 / %D 38.3	Bearish	Slow stochastic at 35.5 was mid-range with %K below %D. Bullish between 20 and 80 with %K above %D · Bearish between 20 and 80 with %K below %D · Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
22	Williams %R (14)	-66.5	Neutral	%R of -66.5 put the close in the middle of its 14-day range. How to read: Caution above –20 (near the top) or below –80 (near the bottom). Neutral in the middle. This point is never tagged Bullish or Bearish.
23	CCI (20)	7	Neutral	CCI at 7 was within the normal ±100 band. Bullish above +100 (unusually strong upward move) · Bearish below –100 (unusually strong downward move) · Neutral within ±100.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	-1.2%	Neutral	Price changed -1.2% over ten sessions. Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.51 (bands 134.53–148.61)	Neutral	%B of 0.51 — inside the bands, upper half. How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 9.9% (36th pct of 6M)	Neutral	Band width was at the 36th percentile of the last six months, a normal level. How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27	ATR (14)	₹3.30 (2.3% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹3.30, or 2.3% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect. How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	28.0% vs 1Y 26.3%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 28.0%, close to the one-year level of 26.3%. How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	135.27–147.94	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout. Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	1.16	Neutral	A beta of 1.16 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day. How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 0.60× / 5-day 0.98×	Neutral	The final session traded 0.60× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.98× — normal participation. How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 1.25	Bullish	Average volume on up days was 1.25× that on down days — accumulation-leaning. Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV rising	Bullish	OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move. Bullish OBV rising · Bearish OBV falling · No neutral zone.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	falling (20d)	Bearish	The A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume. Bullish A/D line rising · Bearish A/D line falling · No neutral zone.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	-0.19	Bearish	CMF at -0.19 indicated net outflows. Bullish above +0.05 (net inflows) · Bearish below –0.05 (net outflows) · Neutral between –0.05 and +0.05.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	50.7	Neutral	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 50.7. Bullish MFI 55–80 · Bearish MFI 20–45 · Neutral 45–55. Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹195 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹195 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid. How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	138.50 / 133.55 / 130.38	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 138.50, 2.3% below the close, then 133.55, 130.38. How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	146.34 / 154.98 / 162.25	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 146.34, 3.3% above the close, then 154.98, 162.25. How to read: Information only.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 141.29 \| R1 144.16 \| S1 138.81	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 141.29; the close was above it. How to read: Information only.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 144 \| 38.2% 153 \| 50.0% 160 \| 61.8% 167	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month fall from 188.96 to 130.22, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 144.08. How to read: Information only.
42	52-week high / low	H 188.96 / L 130.22	Neutral	The close was 25.0% below the 52-week high and 8.8% above the 52-week low. Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	5 open; latest gap-up 12 Jun at 135.65	Neutral	There were 5 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 12 Jun 2026, left an open level at 135.65 that price had not revisited. How to read: Information only.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend	Neutral	Rule-based pattern scan: counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.) Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 133.55–148.47	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 133.55–148.47. Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46	Latest candlestick	Doji	Neutral	On 06 Jul the candle opened 141.60, ranged 140.92–143.75 and closed 141.68: Doji — indecision. Single candles are weak signals on their own. Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 138.92–148.54; Tenkan 143.31 / Kijun 141.01	Neutral	Price was inside the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — an undecided Ichimoku setup. Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M -2.4% / 3M -3.3%	Bearish	The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 3.3 points over three months and underperformed by 2.4 points over one month. Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M -6.3%	Bearish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 6.3 points behind the Nifty 50. Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50	Technical summary	9 bullish · 10 bearish · 30 neutral · 0 caution	Neutral	Across the 49 readings the technical picture was mixed. Levels that mattered: support 138.50, resistance 146.34. This is a description of the chart on 06 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 06 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 06 Jul 2026 close.

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	4.6×	Neutral	At ₹141.68 the market valued the company at about ₹1,99,699 crore, or 4.6× the ₹43,677 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms. How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2	Price / Book	0.91×	Neutral	Market cap was 0.91× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹2,19,518 crore. How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3	Price / Sales	0.25×	Neutral	The company was valued at 0.25× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹7,84,415 crore. How to read: Information only.
4	EV / EBITDA (approx.)	4.3×	Neutral	Enterprise value (market cap + ₹1,31,822 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 4.3× trailing operating profit of ₹77,061 crore. How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5	Earnings yield	21.9%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹21.9 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds. How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	0.08	Caution	P/E of 4.6 divided by 3-year profit growth of 55.1% a year gives a PEG of 0.08. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2023, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it. Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	7.06%	Bullish	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹10 a share, a 7.06% yield on the ₹141.68 price. Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8	Market capitalisation	₹1,99,699 cr	Neutral	At about ₹2.00 lakh crore the company was a large-cap. How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9	Graham number vs price	₹329.52 vs ₹141.68	Bullish	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹329.52; the price was 57% below it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number. Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+3.5%	Neutral	Revenue for FY26 was ₹7,84,415 crore, +3.5% versus FY25. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% (revenue fell) · Neutral 0–10%.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+6.7%	Neutral	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹2,08,289 crore of revenue, +6.7% on the same quarter a year earlier. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+216.8%	Bullish	FY26 net profit was ₹43,677 crore, +216.8% on FY25's ₹13,789 crore. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%. Caution if a one-off item distorted the figure.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	+81.4%	Bullish	Quarterly profit was ₹15,176 crore versus ₹8,368 crore a year earlier (+81.4%). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	-2.3%	Bearish	Revenue compounded at -2.3% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2023, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	55.1%	Caution	Net profit compounded at 55.1% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2023, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	16.6%	Caution	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 16.6% a year. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2023, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+209.6%	Bullish	Reported EPS went from ₹9.63 to ₹29.81 (+209.6%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Operating margin FY26	10%	Neutral	Operating profit (EBITDA) was 10% of sales in FY26 versus 5% in FY25. How to read: Information only — normal margins differ a lot by industry.
19	Operating margin trend (4 quarters)	7% → 9% → 11% → 12%	Bullish	Quarterly margins moved from 7% to 12% over the last four quarters — expanding. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral when broadly stable.
20	Net profit margin FY26	5.6%	Neutral	₹5.6 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26. How to read: Information only.
21	Return on equity FY26	21.5%	Bullish	FY26 profit was 21.5% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak. Bullish above 18% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–18%. Around 15% or more is generally considered good.
22	ROCE FY26	19%	Neutral	Return on capital employed (debt + equity) was 19% in FY26. Bullish above 20% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–20%.
23	Return on assets FY26	8.25%	Neutral	Net profit was 8.25% of total assets. Bullish banks only: 1.5% or more · Bearish banks only: below 1% · Information only for non-banks.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	24%	Neutral	The company paid about 24% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%. How to read: Information only. India’s base corporate rate is about 25%.
25	Other income share of pre-tax profit	12%	Neutral	Non-operating 'other income' of ₹7,139 crore made up 12% of pre-tax profit. How to read: Caution above 25% (headline profit leans on non-core income). Neutral otherwise.

D. Balance sheet

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Debt / equity	0.60	Neutral	Borrowings of ₹1,31,822 crore were 0.60× equity — moderate leverage. Bullish below 0.3 (very low leverage) · Bearish above 1 (high leverage) · Neutral 0.3–1.
27	Debt / EBITDA	1.71×	Neutral	Debt equalled 1.71 years of FY26 operating profit. Bullish below 1× · Bearish above 3× · Neutral 1–3×.
28	Interest coverage	7.9×	Neutral	Earnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 7.9 times. Bullish above 8× · Bearish below 3× · Neutral 3–8×, or not meaningful when interest is negligible.
29	Book value growth	+17.7%	Bullish	Shareholders' equity grew +17.7% from ₹1,86,488 crore to ₹2,19,518 crore in FY26. Bullish above 10% (banks: above 12%) · Bearish below 0% (non-banks only) · Neutral otherwise.
30	Capital work in progress	₹86,049 cr (41% of fixed assets)	Neutral	Projects under construction (CWIP) were 41% of fixed assets — a big expansion pipeline not yet earning. How to read: Information only. Above 20% means a big expansion pipeline that is not yet earning.
31	Working capital days	-30 days	Neutral	Working capital tied up equalled -30 days of sales (FY25: -41). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations. How to read: Information only. Lower is generally more efficient; negative means suppliers or customers fund the business.
32	Cash conversion cycle	41 days	Neutral	It took 41 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit. How to read: Information only. Shorter is generally better.
33	Debtor days	7 (FY25 9)	Neutral	Customers took 7 days on average to pay, versus 9 a year earlier. How to read: Caution when debtor days rose more than 20% in a year (collections stretching). Neutral otherwise.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹76,142 cr	Bullish	The business generated ₹76,142 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹34,452 crore in FY25. Bullish positive and higher than the year before · Bearish negative · Neutral when positive but lower. Information only for banks.
35	Free cash flow FY26	n/a	Neutral	Free cash flow line not available on source page. Bullish positive · Bearish negative · Neutral when not available.
36	Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)	1.74×	Bullish	Operating cash flow was 1.74× reported profit — profits were well backed by cash. Bullish above 1× (profits well backed by cash) · Caution below 0.7×. Neutral 0.7–1×.
37	Free-cash-flow yield	n/a	Neutral	Not available. Bullish above 4% · Neutral at 4% or less.
38	Free cash flow — 3-year total	n/a	Neutral	Not available. Bullish positive total · Bearish negative total · Neutral when not available.
39	Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)	n/a	Neutral	Not available. How to read: Information only.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	27%	Neutral	The company paid out about 27% of FY26 profit as dividends. How to read: Information only. High payout suits mature businesses; growing firms often keep more.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	40% / 30% / 27%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year. Bullish paid every year · Neutral when irregular. Never tagged Bearish.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+0.0%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital changed +0.0% (₹13,772 cr → ₹13,772 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution. Bullish fell 1% or more (a buyback) · Caution when it rose 1% or more (new shares issued). Neutral when unchanged, or for a bonus/split.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	51.50% (+0.00 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 51.50% at Mar 2026 versus 51.50% a year earlier. Bearish fell more than 1 percentage point in a year · Neutral otherwise. Never tagged Bullish.
44	Foreign institutional holding	9.84% (+2.45 pts YoY)	Bullish	FIIs held 9.84% at Mar 2026, up from 7.39% a year before. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
45	Domestic institutional holding	9.10% (-0.87 pts YoY)	Neutral	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 9.10%, down from 9.97%. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
46	Number of shareholders	27.9 lakh (-12.5% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 31.9 lakh to 27.9 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest. How to read: Information only — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares. How to read: Information only. Any sizeable pledge is a risk to note.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	7/8	Bullish	Passed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, CFO > net profit, leverage fell, operating margin improved, ROA improved, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: asset turnover improved. Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49	Automated screen flags	3 strength(s) · 0 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Stock is trading at 0.81 times its book value; Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 6.53%; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 32.3%. No weaknesses flagged. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.) How to read: Information only.
50	Fundamental summary	13 bullish · 1 bearish · 32 neutral · 3 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 06 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 4.6×, P/B 0.91×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 06 Apr 2026 – 06 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

10 Apr 2026 IndianOil chairman says commercial LPG supply significantly increased to stabilise market — IOC Chairman A.S. Sahney said fuel supply is adequate and refineries are running at full capacity amid West Asia-related supply disruption. He said commercial LPG supply had been substantially increased. source
21 Apr 2026 IOCL assures adequate fuel and LPG supply in Punjab — IOC said fuel and LPG supplies in Punjab remained stable with sufficient depot and outlet stocks. It said commercial LPG allocation had risen to about 70% and urged consumers to avoid panic booking. source
18 May 2026 Indian Oil's FY26 profit triples; board recommends Rs 1.25 final dividend — IOC reported FY26 standalone net profit of Rs 36,802 crore versus Rs 12,962 crore in FY25, and Q4 FY26 standalone profit of Rs 11,378 crore. The board recommended a final dividend of Rs 1.25 per share, taking FY26 total to Rs 8.25. source
19 May 2026 Indian Oil approves Rs 1,064 crore sustainable aviation fuel JV; plans Rs 32,700 crore FY27 capex — IOC approved a Rs 1,064 crore joint venture with M11 Energy Transition to produce sustainable aviation fuel. It also outlined Rs 32,700 crore of FY27 capex and targeted Panipat refinery capacity of 25 MMTPA by December. source
25 May 2026 OMC shares rise after fourth fuel price hike in 10 days; IOC up 4% — Oil marketing company shares rose after petrol and diesel prices were raised again and crude prices fell. IOC gained 4.15% to Rs 145.30 intraday. source

What happened next (06 Jul 2026 → 08 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹141.68 to ₹126.25 by 08 Oct 2026 (-10.9%) while the Nifty 50 moved -9.0% — underperforming by 1.9 points.
Highest ₹145.20 on 03 Aug 2026; lowest ₹125.27 on 08 Oct 2026.
S1 138.50: broken on a closing basis on 08 Jul 2026.
S2 133.55: broken on a closing basis on 15 Sep 2026.
R1 146.34: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 154.98: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 31 Jul 2026): revenue ₹2,66,407 crore (+38.5% YoY), net profit ₹-1,141 crore (-116.8% YoY), operating margin 2% vs 7% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).

Later news

17 Jul 2026 Indian Oil schedules July 31 board meeting for Q1 FY27 results — IOC said its board would meet on July 31, 2026 to approve results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The trading window was closed from July 1 to August 2. source
31 Jul 2026 IOC reports Q1 FY27 loss as crude costs rise — IOC reported a standalone net loss of Rs 2,662 crore and a consolidated net loss of Rs 1,141 crore for the June 2026 quarter, attributed mainly to high input costs and inventory losses. Standalone revenue from operations was Rs 2,75,972 crore. source
03 Aug 2026 Indian Oil to commission refinery expansions by year-end — In a July 31 exchange filing, IOC said capacity expansions at Panipat, Koyali, Barauni and Paradip refineries were nearing completion with start-ups scheduled by end-2026. Several projects have exceeded their original budgets. source
10 Sep 2026 Indian Oil Panipat refinery nears completion of maintenance turnaround — IOC was reported to be restarting crude units at Panipat after a 35-day maintenance shutdown. The turnaround supports the project to raise Panipat capacity from 15 to 25 MMTPA by December 2026. source
21 Sep 2026 IOCL to invest Rs 2,449 crore in Kochi-Kanyakumari-Thoothukudi gas pipeline — IOC approved investment of about Rs 2,449 crore (about $256 million) to build a natural gas pipeline from Kochi to Thoothukudi. source

Educational summary. On 06 Jul 2026 the technical picture was mixed and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -10.9% against -9.0% for the Nifty 50. A mixed chart gave no clear message, and the outcome shows why mixed readings are hard to act on. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Indian Oil Corporation today.

Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 09 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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