HDB Financial Services — 100-point case study
What happened next (3 months): -28.7% vs Nifty 50 -5.0%
Every morning: the national and international news that moves Indian shares, explained by sector — and 10 new NSE/BSE stocks taken apart on 50 technical and 50 fundamental points, using data from 95 days ago, with what happened next.
What happened next (3 months): -28.7% vs Nifty 50 -5.0%
What happened next (3 months): -5.0% vs Nifty 50 -6.6%
What happened next (3 months): +1.4% vs Nifty 50 -6.6%
What happened next (3 months): -9.0% vs Nifty 50 -5.0%
What happened next (3 months): -11.0% vs Nifty 50 -5.0%
What happened next (3 months): -23.4% vs Nifty 50 -5.0%
What happened next (3 months): -13.6% vs Nifty 50 -5.0%
What happened next (3 months): -14.9% vs Nifty 50 -5.0%
What happened next (3 months): -0.9% vs Nifty 50 -5.0%
What happened next (3 months): -1.9% vs Nifty 50 -5.0%
Published 15 Oct 2026 · data as of 10 Jul 2026
Published 14 Oct 2026 · data as of 10 Jul 2026
Published 13 Oct 2026 · data as of 10 Jul 2026
Published 12 Oct 2026 · data as of 09 Jul 2026
Published 11 Oct 2026 · data as of 08 Jul 2026
Published 10 Oct 2026 · data as of 07 Jul 2026
Published 09 Oct 2026 · data as of 06 Jul 2026
Yemen's Houthi movement said attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities would continue, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported more incidents and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. The IEA's October Oil Market Report said global supply rose by 2.5 million barrels per day in September to 102.3 million barrels per day as Gulf exports moved closer to pre-war levels, but warned the market remains vulnerable to further disruption. Brent crude for December delivery traded at $106.50 per barrel during the session, according to AFP market data.
Why it matters: India imports most of its crude oil, so sustained high prices tend to raise fuel and input costs, widen the import bill and weigh on the rupee. Companies that buy fuel or oil-based raw materials usually feel the pressure most, while crude producers tend to benefit from higher realisations.
US consumer prices rose 3.7% year-on-year in September, which put a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month back on the table, a Reuters market report said. Markets began pricing a possible hike, the dollar hit an 18-month high, and worries over how the AI buildout will be financed added to the selling. The Nasdaq fell 1.9% and the US tech sector fell 2.6%.
Why it matters: Higher US interest rates and a stronger dollar tend to make emerging markets less attractive to foreign portfolio investors, which can mean outflows from Indian equities. A global tech selloff tends to sway sentiment toward Indian IT services, while a stronger dollar raises the rupee value of their export earnings.
Government data released on Monday showed India's CPI inflation rose to 5.54% in September 2026 from 4.83% in August, higher than expected. The report pointed to rising food prices, especially vegetables, along with higher international crude prices, a weaker rupee and uncertainty over farm output linked to El Nino and a deficient monsoon.
Why it matters: Higher retail inflation reduces the room for interest rate cuts and can lift bond yields, which usually weighs on rate-sensitive sectors. Food inflation also squeezes household budgets, especially for mass-market consumer spending.
India's WPI inflation rose to 11.39% year-on-year in September 2026 from 9.92% in August, according to Commerce and Industry Ministry data. Fuel and power inflation was the highest at 25.85% (from 22.93%), the WPI food index rose 8.66% (from 7.05%), and manufactured products inflation rose to 9.76% (from 8.37%).
Why it matters: Wholesale prices reflect input costs for businesses, so a sharp rise tends to squeeze margins for manufacturers that cannot pass costs on quickly. Producers of the commodities whose prices are rising can see better realisations.
On Saturday the RBI barred firms from rebooking cancelled rupee-linked derivatives, cut the threshold for transactions without underlying exposure, and required banks to set aside 20% cash against certain FX contracts, Reuters reported. It also moved to shift oil marketing companies' dollar purchases away from the spot market and to temper corporate demand for forward dollars. Bankers said the measures cover only current account transactions and not ECB hedging or foreign portfolio investors' hedges.
Why it matters: Steps that curb dollar demand can steady the rupee, which eases imported inflation and costs for importers. They can also make hedging costlier for companies and change how banks run their FX business.