Adani Enterprises — 100-point case study
What happened next (3 months): -10.4% vs Nifty 50 -6.6%
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What happened next (3 months): -10.4% vs Nifty 50 -6.6%
What happened next (3 months): -6.0% vs Nifty 50 -6.6%
What happened next (3 months): -5.6% vs Nifty 50 -6.6%
What happened next (3 months): -11.4% vs Nifty 50 -6.6%
What happened next (3 months): -11.1% vs Nifty 50 -6.6%
What happened next (3 months): +2.1% vs Nifty 50 -6.6%
What happened next (3 months): -6.6% vs Nifty 50 -6.6%
What happened next (3 months): -3.6% vs Nifty 50 -6.6%
What happened next (3 months): -8.0% vs Nifty 50 -6.6%
What happened next (3 months): -7.7% vs Nifty 50 -6.6%
Published 03 Oct 2026 · data as of 30 Jun 2026
Eight of ten economists surveyed by Business Standard expect the RBI Monetary Policy Committee to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points from 5.25% at its 5-7 October meeting. Respondents cited retail inflation rising to 4.8% in August from 4.45% in July and crude oil staying above $100 a barrel; one respondent (Bank of Baroda's Madan Sabnavis) expected no change. Q2 GDP growth of 7.8%, above RBI projections, has also led economists to expect an upward revision to the FY27 growth forecast.
Why it matters: A repo rate increase generally raises borrowing costs for companies and households and can lift deposit and lending rates, which affects bank margins, loan demand and the valuation of rate-sensitive businesses. The policy statement's inflation and growth projections also shape bond yields and the rupee.
Brent crude rose more than 3% to around $107-108 a barrel after President Trump rejected Iran's plan, announced at the UN General Assembly, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for sanctions relief, release of frozen funds and an end to the US naval blockade. Al Jazeera reported only 132 transits through the strait during 21-27 September, against roughly 130 daily crossings before the conflict began in late February. About one-fifth of global oil supply normally passes through the waterway.
Why it matters: India imports most of its crude oil, so sustained high prices tend to widen the trade and current account deficits, pressure the rupee and feed into inflation. Higher crude raises input costs for fuel-intensive industries while supporting realisations for upstream oil producers.
Foreign portfolio investors sold roughly Rs 35,000 crore of Indian equities during the week, including net outflows of Rs 9,484.22 crore on Thursday, the heaviest single-day foreign selling in six months. Domestic institutional investors bought Rs 10,041.84 crore of equities the same day. The Sensex and Nifty recorded an eighth consecutive weekly decline, their longest losing streak since 2001, amid Brent above $100, a weaker rupee and US 10-year Treasury yields at their highest since 2007.
Why it matters: Large and persistent foreign outflows tend to weigh most on heavily owned large-cap stocks and add pressure on the rupee, while domestic institutional buying, largely from mutual fund inflows, can partly offset the selling.
The rupee closed 37 paise lower at 96.31 against the US dollar, its weakest level in over two months, after touching an intraday low of 96.34. Forex traders cited risk aversion in global markets, surging global bond yields and foreign investor selling. Traders quoted in the report expected the rupee to trade with a negative bias.
Why it matters: A weaker rupee raises the cost of imports such as crude oil, electronics and fertiliser, and can add to inflation, while increasing the rupee value of export earnings. Currency depreciation can also reduce returns for foreign investors measured in dollars.
The US economy added 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, against economists' expectations of 84,000. The figure was also below the prior 12-month average monthly gain of 45,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
Why it matters: US labour data influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy and Treasury yields; higher US yields have historically drawn capital away from emerging markets like India, while signs of a slowing US economy can affect demand for Indian IT services and exports.