IT services Historical case study · data as of 30 Jun 2026 · published 03 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

Infosys — 100-point case study

How Infosys looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 30 Jun 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: INFY · BSE: 500209
Close on 30 Jun 2026	₹1,000.40
Market cap then	₹4,05,990 crore
Valuation	P/E 13.8× · P/B 4.37×
Momentum	RSI (14) 31 · 1-year return -37.5%
Next 3 months	+3.5% vs Nifty 50 -6.0% (to 01 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

2 bullish · 12 neutral · 3 caution · 32 bearish — the picture leaned negative.

Fundamental — 50 points

19 bullish · 28 neutral · 0 caution · 2 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 30 Jun 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope -1.05%/day	Bearish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 1.05% a day — a short-term downtrend.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return -21.7%	Bearish	The 100-session trend line was down (-0.31%/day) and the stock was -21.7% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return -37.5%	Bearish	Compared with a year earlier the price was -37.5%. A weak year for the stock.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 1,122.23 / 30W 1,334.99	Bearish	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 1,206.90→1,278.90; lows 1,153.60→1,109.00	Neutral	The two most recent swing points showed a higher high but a lower low — mixed structure.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	22.0	Bearish	ADX at 22.0 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 17.3 / –DI 41.6	Bearish	–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	1,124.05 (-11.0%)	Bearish	Close of 1,000.40 was 11.0% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	1,160.39 (-13.8%)	Bearish	Close of 1,000.40 was 13.8% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	1,402.51 (-28.7%)	Bearish	Close of 1,000.40 was 28.7% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 1,057.46 / 21E 1,102.07	Bearish	The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 10 Jun 2026.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bearish	The 50-day average was 17.3% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
13	50-day SMA slope	-5.2% in 20 sessions	Bearish	The 50-day average fell 5.2% over the past month — declining.
14	MA ribbon alignment	1,124 / 1,160 / 1,253 / 1,403	Bearish	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bearish (20 < 50 < 100 < 200).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	1,124.45 (-11.0%)	Bearish	Anchored to the start of June, the volume-weighted average price was 1,124.45; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	30.7	Bearish	RSI at 30.7 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	bullish divergence	Bullish	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI made a higher low — selling momentum was fading.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD -42.67 / signal -31.39	Bearish	MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	-12.34 → -11.28	Bullish	The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
20	MACD vs zero line	-42.67	Bearish	MACD below zero means the 12-day EMA was below the 26-day EMA — a negative momentum regime.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 5.9 / %D 8.2	Caution	Slow stochastic at 5.9 was in oversold territory (<20).
22	Williams %R (14)	-97.5	Caution	%R of -97.5 put the close near the bottom of its 14-day range.
23	CCI (20)	-131	Bearish	CCI at -131 signalled an unusually strong downward deviation (<–100).
24	Rate of change (10-day)	-11.9%	Bearish	Price changed -11.9% over ten sessions.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.08 (bands 976.03–1,272.08)	Neutral	%B of 0.08 — inside the bands, lower half.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 26.3% (90th pct of 6M)	Neutral	Band width was at the 90th percentile of the last six months, so volatility was elevated.
27	ATR (14)	₹34.94 (3.5% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹34.94, or 3.5% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	41.6% vs 1Y 28.3%	Caution	Annualised 30-day volatility was 41.6%, well above the one-year level of 28.3%.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	1,029.19–1,169.49	Bearish	The close was below the lower channel — a strong trending push.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	0.72	Neutral	A beta of 0.72 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 1.58× / 5-day 1.14×	Neutral	The final session traded 1.58× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.14× — normal participation.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 0.79	Bearish	Average volume on up days was 0.79× that on down days — distribution-leaning.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV falling	Bearish	OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	falling (20d)	Bearish	The A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	-0.20	Bearish	CMF at -0.20 indicated net outflows.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	23.0	Bearish	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 23.0.
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹1,709 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹1,709 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — highly liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	996.00	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 996.00, 0.4% below the close.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	1,162.50 / 1,200.95 / 1,288.90	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 1,162.50, 16.2% above the close, then 1,200.95, 1,288.90.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 1,091.77 \| R1 1,187.53 \| S1 904.63	Neutral	Classic pivots from June's high/low/close gave a pivot of 1,091.77; the close was below it.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 1,169 \| 38.2% 1,276 \| 50.0% 1,362 \| 61.8% 1,448	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month fall from 1,728.00 to 996.00, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 1,168.75.
42	52-week high / low	H 1,728.00 / L 996.00	Bearish	The close was 42.1% below the 52-week high and 0.4% above the 52-week low.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	5 open; latest gap-down 19 Jun at 1,125.30	Neutral	There were 5 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 19 Jun 2026, left an open level at 1,125.30 that price had not revisited.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	falling channel	Bearish	Rule-based pattern scan: falling channel — successive lower highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 1,026.00–1,278.90	Bearish	The close was breakdown below the prior 20-day range of 1,026.00–1,278.90 — a range break.
46	Latest candlestick	Bearish marubozu-type candle	Bearish	On 30 Jun the candle opened 1,030.00, ranged 996.00–1,030.40 and closed 1,000.40: Bearish marubozu-type candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 1,178.97–1,232.95; Tenkan 1,079.25 / Kijun 1,137.45	Bearish	Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M -15.2% / 3M -25.9%	Bearish	The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 25.9 points over three months and underperformed by 15.2 points over one month.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty IT	3M -10.4%	Bearish	Against its sector index (Nifty IT) the stock was 10.4 points behind over three months.
50	Technical summary	2 bullish · 32 bearish · 12 neutral · 3 caution	Bearish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 996.00, resistance 1,162.50. This is a description of the chart on 30 Jun 2026, not a forecast.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 30 Jun 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 30 Jun 2026 close.

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	13.8×	Neutral	At ₹1,000.40 the market valued the company at about ₹4,05,990 crore, or 13.8× the ₹29,474 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms.
2	Price / Book	4.37×	Neutral	Market cap was 4.37× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹92,852 crore.
3	Price / Sales	2.27×	Neutral	The company was valued at 2.27× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹1,78,650 crore.
4	EV / EBITDA (approx.)	9.8×	Neutral	Enterprise value (market cap + ₹9,176 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 9.8× trailing operating profit of ₹42,279 crore.
5	Earnings yield	7.3%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹7.3 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	1.99	Neutral	P/E of 13.8 divided by 3-year profit growth of 6.9% a year gives a PEG of 1.99. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	4.80%	Bullish	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹48 a share, a 4.80% yield on the ₹1,000.40 price.
8	Market capitalisation	₹4,05,990 cr	Neutral	At about ₹4.06 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
9	Graham number vs price	₹611.45 vs ₹1,000.40	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹611.45; the price was 64% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+9.6%	Neutral	Revenue for FY26 was ₹1,78,650 crore, +9.6% versus FY25.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+13.4%	Bullish	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹46,402 crore of revenue, +13.4% on the same quarter a year earlier.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+10.2%	Bullish	FY26 net profit was ₹29,474 crore, +10.2% on FY25's ₹26,750 crore.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	+20.9%	Bullish	Quarterly profit was ₹8,509 crore versus ₹7,038 crore a year earlier (+20.9%).
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	6.8%	Neutral	Revenue compounded at 6.8% a year from FY23 to FY26.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	6.9%	Neutral	Net profit compounded at 6.9% a year from FY23 to FY26.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	12.2%	Bullish	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 12.2% a year.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+12.9%	Bullish	Reported EPS went from ₹64.32 to ₹72.59 (+12.9%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Operating margin FY26	24%	Neutral	Operating profit (EBITDA) was 24% of sales in FY26 versus 24% in FY25.
19	Operating margin trend (4 quarters)	24% → 24% → 23% → 24%	Neutral	Quarterly margins moved from 24% to 24% over the last four quarters — broadly stable.
20	Net profit margin FY26	16.5%	Neutral	₹16.5 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26.
21	Return on equity FY26	31.2%	Bullish	FY26 profit was 31.2% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak.
22	ROCE FY26	40%	Bullish	Return on capital employed (debt + equity) was 40% in FY26.
23	Return on assets FY26	19.10%	Neutral	Net profit was 19.10% of total assets.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	26%	Neutral	The company paid about 26% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%.
25	Other income share of pre-tax profit	8%	Neutral	Non-operating 'other income' of ₹3,033 crore made up 8% of pre-tax profit.

D. Balance sheet

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Debt / equity	0.10	Bullish	Borrowings of ₹9,176 crore were 0.10× equity — very low leverage.
27	Debt / EBITDA	0.22×	Bullish	Debt equalled 0.22 years of FY26 operating profit.
28	Interest coverage	97.1×	Bullish	Earnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 97.1 times.
29	Book value growth	-3.1%	Bearish	Shareholders' equity grew -3.1% from ₹95,818 crore to ₹92,852 crore in FY26.
30	Capital work in progress	₹526 cr (2% of fixed assets)	Neutral	Projects under construction (CWIP) were 2% of fixed assets — a modest pipeline.
31	Working capital days	33 days	Neutral	Working capital tied up equalled 33 days of sales (FY25: 39). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations.
32	Cash conversion cycle	72 days	Neutral	It took 72 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit.
33	Debtor days	72 (FY25 70)	Neutral	Customers took 72 days on average to pay, versus 70 a year earlier.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹33,986 cr	Neutral	The business generated ₹33,986 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹35,694 crore in FY25.
35	Free cash flow FY26	₹31,259 cr	Bullish	After capital spending, free cash flow was ₹31,259 crore.
36	Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)	1.15×	Bullish	Operating cash flow was 1.15× reported profit — profits were well backed by cash.
37	Free-cash-flow yield	7.7%	Bullish	FY26 free cash flow was 7.7% of the snapshot market cap.
38	Free cash flow — 3-year total	₹87,725 cr	Bullish	Free cash flow over FY24–FY26 added up to ₹87,725 crore.
39	Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)	₹2,727 cr	Neutral	Implied capital expenditure was about ₹2,727 crore, 1.5% of sales.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	66%	Neutral	The company paid out about 66% of FY26 profit as dividends.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	73% / 67% / 66%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	-2.4%	Bullish	Paid-up equity capital changed -2.4% (₹2,073 cr → ₹2,024 cr). A fall indicates a buyback; a rise indicates new shares were issued.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	14.38% (-0.22 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 14.38% at Mar 2026 versus 14.60% a year earlier.
44	Foreign institutional holding	28.45% (-4.44 pts YoY)	Bearish	FIIs held 28.45% at Mar 2026, down from 32.89% a year before.
45	Domestic institutional holding	43.19% (+4.87 pts YoY)	Bullish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 43.19%, up from 38.32%.
46	Number of shareholders	27.5 lakh (+7.9% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 25.5 lakh to 27.5 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	7/8	Bullish	Passed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, CFO > net profit, operating margin improved, ROA improved, asset turnover improved, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: leverage fell.
49	Automated screen flags	4 strength(s) · 2 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 4.64%; Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 30.8%; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 68.5%; Company's working capital requirements have reduced from 42.0 days to 32.7 days. Weaknesses: Promoter holding has decreased over last quarter: -0.56%; Promoter holding is low: 13.8%. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
50	Fundamental summary	19 bullish · 2 bearish · 28 neutral · 0 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 30 Jun 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 13.8×, P/B 4.37×. This describes the data, not a recommendation.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 1 Apr – 30 Jun 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

23 Apr 2026 Infosys Q4 FY26: net profit up 21% YoY to Rs 8,501 crore; revenue up 13% to Rs 46,402 crore — Q4 FY26 consolidated net profit Rs 8,501 crore (+20.87% YoY) on revenue of Rs 46,402 crore (+13.38%); FY26 large deal wins $14.9 billion. Board recommended a final dividend of Rs 25/share (record date 10 Jun 2026). source
23 Apr 2026 Infosys guides FY27 revenue growth of 1.5%-3.5% in constant currency — Infosys guided FY27 revenue growth of 1.5% to 3.5% in constant currency with operating margin of 20%-22%. FY26 growth was 3.1%. source
24 Apr 2026 Infosys shares fall ~5% to 52-week low after Q4 results — Shares fell to a 52-week low the day after Q4 FY26 results as the modest FY27 guidance disappointed investors; NSE close was Rs 1,154.60 (-6.93%). source
19 Jun 2026 Infosys shares slump after Accenture cuts revenue guidance — Infosys fell sharply after Accenture narrowed its FY2026 revenue growth forecast to 3-4% in local currency, dragging Indian IT; Nifty IT hit a 52-week low. source
23 Jun 2026 45th AGM: Nilekani sees $400 billion AI-first services opportunity by 2030 — At the 45th AGM, Chairman Nandan Nilekani said AI will amplify rather than displace IT services firms and that Infosys works with 90% of its top 200 clients on AI. Infosys also announced an expanded multi-year collaboration with GlobalFoundries the same day. source
24 Jun 2026 Infosys stock near six-year low — Shares touched a 52-week low of Rs 1,026.10 and were down about 35% year-to-date on BSE, amid AI-disruption fears and Accenture's guidance cut. source

What happened next (30 Jun 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹1,000.40 to ₹1,035.00 by 01 Oct 2026 (+3.5%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.0% — outperforming by 9.5 points.
Highest ₹1,195.00 on 10 Aug 2026; lowest ₹980.40 on 29 Sep 2026.
S1 996.00: broken on a closing basis on 01 Jul 2026.
R1 1,162.50: cleared on a closing basis on 03 Aug 2026.
R2 1,200.95: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 23 Jul 2026): revenue ₹48,211 crore (+14.0% YoY), net profit ₹7,775 crore (+12.3% YoY), operating margin 24% vs 24% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Shareholding Mar → Jun 2026: Promoters 14.38% → 13.82%, FIIs 28.45% → 27.09%, DIIs 43.19% → 42.78%.

Later news

23 Jul 2026 Infosys Q1 FY27: revenue up 14% to Rs 48,211 crore; net profit up ~12%; FY27 guidance narrowed to 1.5%-3% — Q1 FY27 revenue Rs 48,211 crore (+14.03% YoY, $5.08 billion), net profit Rs 7,769 crore attributable (Rs 7,775 crore incl. minority, +12.29%); large deals $3.6 billion. FY27 cc revenue guidance narrowed to 1.5%-3.0%, margin 20%-22% retained. source
23 Jul 2026 Ashiss Kumar Dash named CEO Designate; to succeed Salil Parekh on 1 April 2027 — The board appointed Ashiss Kumar Dash as CEO Designate; he will succeed Salil Parekh as CEO & MD from 1 April 2027, with Parekh continuing through 31 March 2027. source
29 Jul 2026 Infosys shares jump over 5% as Jefferies adds stock to model portfolio — Shares rose 5.27% intraday to Rs 1,162.30 after Jefferies added Infosys to its India model portfolio and upgraded IT to Neutral, citing easing AI concerns. source
16 Sep 2026 Infosys expands Indore campus; Q2 FY27 results set for 23 October — Infosys inaugurated a 330,000 sq ft Software Development Block at Indore and scheduled its Q2 FY27 results for 23 October 2026. source

Educational summary. On 30 Jun 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved +3.5% against -6.0% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Infosys today.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 03 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50, Nifty IT via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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