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Ports and logistics Historical case study · data as of 01 Jul 2026 · published 04 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

Adani Ports & SEZ — 100-point case study

How Adani Ports & SEZ looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 01 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: ADANIPORTS · BSE: 532921
Close on 01 Jul 2026	₹1,848.20
Market cap then	₹4,25,769 crore
Valuation	P/E 33.3× · P/B 4.44×
Momentum	RSI (14) 59 · 1-year return +27.7%
Next 3 months	-6.0% vs Nifty 50 -6.6% (to 01 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

22 bullish · 20 neutral · 2 caution · 5 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Fundamental — 50 points

13 bullish · 33 neutral · 1 caution · 2 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 01 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope +0.02%/day	Neutral	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.02% a day — a flat, sideways phase.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return +34.3%	Bullish	The 100-session trend line was up (+0.29%/day) and the stock was +34.3% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return +27.7%	Bullish	Compared with a year earlier the price was +27.7%. A strong positive year.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 1,792.09 / 30W 1,572.01	Bullish	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 1,857.80→1,849.50; lows 1,745.20→1,777.90	Neutral	The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	16.0	Neutral	ADX at 16.0 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 25.9 / –DI 16.7	Bullish	+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	1,812.97 (+1.9%)	Bullish	Close of 1,848.20 was 1.9% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	1,760.17 (+5.0%)	Bullish	Close of 1,848.20 was 5.0% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	1,530.47 (+20.8%)	Bullish	Close of 1,848.20 was 20.8% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 1,813.96 / 21E 1,804.65	Bullish	The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 10 Apr 2026.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bullish	The 50-day average was 15.0% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
13	50-day SMA slope	+10.1% in 20 sessions	Bullish	The 50-day average rose 10.1% over the past month — rising.
14	MA ribbon alignment	1,813 / 1,760 / 1,612 / 1,530	Bullish	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bullish (20 > 50 > 100 > 200).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	1,848.43 (-0.0%)	Bearish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 1,848.43; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	59.3	Bullish	RSI at 59.3 showed positive momentum without being overbought.
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	bearish divergence	Caution	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: bearish divergence: price made a higher high but RSI made a lower high.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD 16.53 / signal 21.88	Bearish	MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	-7.97 → -5.35	Bullish	The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
20	MACD vs zero line	16.53	Bullish	MACD above zero means the 12-day EMA was above the 26-day EMA — a positive momentum regime.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 40.6 / %D 30.8	Bullish	Slow stochastic at 40.6 was mid-range with %K above %D.
22	Williams %R (14)	-30.1	Neutral	%R of -30.1 put the close in the middle of its 14-day range.
23	CCI (20)	185	Bullish	CCI at 185 signalled an unusually strong upward deviation (>+100).
24	Rate of change (10-day)	+1.4%	Neutral	Price changed +1.4% over ten sessions.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.95 (bands 1,773.61–1,852.32)	Neutral	%B of 0.95 — inside the bands, upper half.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 4.3% (13th pct of 6M)	Caution	Band width was at the 13th percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown).
27	ATR (14)	₹42.57 (2.3% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹42.57, or 2.3% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	19.4% vs 1Y 26.9%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 19.4%, below the one-year level of 26.9%.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	1,720.64–1,891.40	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	1.46	Neutral	A beta of 1.46 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 1.75× / 5-day 1.02×	Neutral	The final session traded 1.75× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.02× — normal participation.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 0.97	Neutral	Average volume on up days was 0.97× that on down days — balanced.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV falling	Bearish	OBV fell over the month while price rose — volume diverged from price.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	falling (20d)	Bearish	The A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	-0.06	Bearish	CMF at -0.06 indicated net outflows.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	74.3	Bullish	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 74.3.
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹427 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹427 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	1,777.90 / 1,744.75 / 1,683.20	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 1,777.90, 4.0% below the close, then 1,744.75, 1,683.20.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	none above	Neutral	No swing-high resistance above within a year — the stock was near its highs.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 1,848.43 \| R1 1,881.47 \| S1 1,815.17	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 1,848.43; the close was below it.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 1,743 \| 38.2% 1,656 \| 50.0% 1,587 \| 61.8% 1,517	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month rise from 1,292.00 to 1,881.70, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 1,742.53.
42	52-week high / low	H 1,881.70 / L 1,290.50	Bullish	The close was 1.8% below the 52-week high and 43.2% above the 52-week low.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	3 open; latest gap-up 04 May at 1,677.00	Neutral	There were 3 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 04 May 2026, left an open level at 1,677.00 that price had not revisited.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	rising channel	Bullish	Rule-based pattern scan: rising channel — successive higher highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 1,745.20–1,857.80	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 1,745.20–1,857.80.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary green candle	Neutral	On 01 Jul the candle opened 1,829.50, ranged 1,815.40–1,881.70 and closed 1,848.20: Ordinary green candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 1,558.70–1,710.25; Tenkan 1,826.10 / Kijun 1,813.45	Bullish	Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M +1.0% / 3M +31.3%	Bullish	The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 31.3 points over three months and outperformed by 1.0 points over one month.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M +30.8%	Bullish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 30.8 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
50	Technical summary	22 bullish · 5 bearish · 20 neutral · 2 caution	Bullish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 1,777.90, resistance n/a. This is a description of the chart on 01 Jul 2026, not a forecast.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 01 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 01 Jul 2026 close.

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	33.3×	Neutral	At ₹1,848.20 the market valued the company at about ₹4,25,769 crore, or 33.3× the ₹12,782 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
2	Price / Book	4.44×	Neutral	Market cap was 4.44× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹95,959 crore.
3	Price / Sales	10.99×	Neutral	The company was valued at 10.99× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹38,736 crore.
4	EV / EBITDA (approx.)	21.6×	Neutral	Enterprise value (market cap + ₹63,566 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 21.6× trailing operating profit of ₹22,641 crore.
5	Earnings yield	3.0%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹3.0 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	1.00	Bullish	P/E of 33.3 divided by 3-year profit growth of 33.3% a year gives a PEG of 1.00. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	0.41%	Neutral	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹7.5 a share, a 0.41% yield on the ₹1,848.20 price.
8	Market capitalisation	₹4,25,769 cr	Neutral	At about ₹4.26 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
9	Graham number vs price	₹721.12 vs ₹1,848.20	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹721.12; the price was 156% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+27.1%	Bullish	Revenue for FY26 was ₹38,736 crore, +27.1% versus FY25.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+26.5%	Bullish	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹10,738 crore of revenue, +26.5% on the same quarter a year earlier.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+15.6%	Bullish	FY26 net profit was ₹12,782 crore, +15.6% on FY25's ₹11,061 crore.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	+9.4%	Neutral	Quarterly profit was ₹3,308 crore versus ₹3,023 crore a year earlier (+9.4%).
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	22.9%	Bullish	Revenue compounded at 22.9% a year from FY23 to FY26.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	33.3%	Bullish	Net profit compounded at 33.3% a year from FY23 to FY26.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	25.3%	Bullish	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 25.3% a year.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+8.2%	Neutral	Reported EPS went from ₹51.35 to ₹55.58 (+8.2%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Operating margin FY26	59%	Neutral	Operating profit (EBITDA) was 59% of sales in FY26 versus 60% in FY25.
19	Operating margin trend (4 quarters)	60% → 58% → 60% → 56%	Bearish	Quarterly margins moved from 60% to 56% over the last four quarters — contracting.
20	Net profit margin FY26	33.0%	Neutral	₹33.0 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26.
21	Return on equity FY26	16.2%	Neutral	FY26 profit was 16.2% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak.
22	ROCE FY26	14%	Neutral	Return on capital employed (debt + equity) was 14% in FY26.
23	Return on assets FY26	6.98%	Neutral	Net profit was 6.98% of total assets.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	14%	Neutral	The company paid about 14% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%.
25	Other income share of pre-tax profit	14%	Neutral	Non-operating 'other income' of ₹2,152 crore made up 14% of pre-tax profit.

D. Balance sheet

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Debt / equity	0.66	Neutral	Borrowings of ₹63,566 crore were 0.66× equity — moderate leverage.
27	Debt / EBITDA	2.78×	Neutral	Debt equalled 2.78 years of FY26 operating profit.
28	Interest coverage	4.2×	Neutral	Earnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 4.2 times.
29	Book value growth	+54.1%	Bullish	Shareholders' equity grew +54.1% from ₹62,269 crore to ₹95,959 crore in FY26.
30	Capital work in progress	₹12,689 cr (10% of fixed assets)	Neutral	Projects under construction (CWIP) were 10% of fixed assets — a modest pipeline.
31	Working capital days	-33 days	Neutral	Working capital tied up equalled -33 days of sales (FY25: -114). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations.
32	Cash conversion cycle	60 days	Neutral	It took 60 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit.
33	Debtor days	60 (FY25 53)	Neutral	Customers took 60 days on average to pay, versus 53 a year earlier.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹20,356 cr	Bullish	The business generated ₹20,356 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹17,226 crore in FY25.
35	Free cash flow FY26	₹5,074 cr	Bullish	After capital spending, free cash flow was ₹5,074 crore.
36	Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)	1.59×	Bullish	Operating cash flow was 1.59× reported profit — profits were well backed by cash.
37	Free-cash-flow yield	1.2%	Neutral	FY26 free cash flow was 1.2% of the snapshot market cap.
38	Free cash flow — 3-year total	₹21,930 cr	Bullish	Free cash flow over FY24–FY26 added up to ₹21,930 crore.
39	Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)	₹15,282 cr	Neutral	Implied capital expenditure was about ₹15,282 crore, 39.5% of sales.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	13%	Neutral	The company paid out about 13% of FY26 profit as dividends.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	16% / 14% / 13%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+6.7%	Caution	Paid-up equity capital changed +6.7% (₹432 cr → ₹461 cr). A fall indicates a buyback; a rise indicates new shares were issued.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	68.02% (+2.13 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 68.02% at Mar 2026 versus 65.89% a year earlier.
44	Foreign institutional holding	13.25% (-0.18 pts YoY)	Neutral	FIIs held 13.25% at Mar 2026, down from 13.43% a year before.
45	Domestic institutional holding	13.86% (-0.87 pts YoY)	Neutral	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 13.86%, down from 14.73%.
46	Number of shareholders	11.0 lakh (-13.2% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 12.6 lakh to 11.0 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	4/8	Bearish	Passed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, CFO > net profit, leverage fell. Failed: operating margin improved, ROA improved, asset turnover improved, no meaningful dilution (<3%).
49	Automated screen flags	2 strength(s) · 3 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Company has delivered good profit growth of 21.0% CAGR over last 5 years; Company's median sales growth is 20.3% of last 10 years. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 4.17 times its book value; Promoter holding has decreased over last quarter: -1.99%; Tax rate seems low. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
50	Fundamental summary	13 bullish · 2 bearish · 33 neutral · 1 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 01 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 33.3×, P/B 4.44×. This describes the data, not a recommendation.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 01 Apr 2026 – 01 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

02 Apr 2026 Adani Ports crosses 500 MMT cargo in FY26, record March volumes — APSEZ reported 500.8 MMT of cargo handled in FY26, led by about 19% YoY container growth, and a record monthly volume of about 46 MMT in March 2026. source
29 Apr 2026 Adani Ports hits record high ahead of Q4 results — Shares touched a record Rs 1,672, up about 25% in a month, ahead of the April 30 board meeting to approve Q4 FY26 results and consider a dividend. source
30 Apr 2026 Q4 FY26 results: PAT Rs 3,308 crore, dividend Rs 7.50 per share — Q4 FY26 consolidated revenue rose 26.5% to about Rs 10,738 crore; FY26 PAT rose 15.6% to Rs 12,782 crore. The board recommended a Rs 7.50 dividend, record date June 12, 2026. source
04 May 2026 April 2026 cargo volumes up 15% YoY — APSEZ handled 43.1 MMT in April 2026, up 15% YoY, with strength in container and dry cargo; the shares rose about 2.9% in trade. source
02 Jun 2026 May 2026 cargo volumes up 16% YoY — APSEZ reported 16% YoY cargo growth in May 2026, led by liquids (+33%) and containers (+17%). source

What happened next (01 Jul 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹1,848.20 to ₹1,737.80 by 01 Oct 2026 (-6.0%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.6% — outperforming by 0.6 points.
Highest ₹1,891.10 on 03 Jul 2026; lowest ₹1,593.10 on 31 Aug 2026.
S1 1,777.90: broken on a closing basis on 24 Jul 2026.
S2 1,744.75: broken on a closing basis on 29 Jul 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 31 Aug 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 29 Jul 2026): revenue ₹10,821 crore (+18.6% YoY), net profit ₹3,650 crore (+10.2% YoY), operating margin 58% vs 60% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).

Later news

29 Jul 2026 Q1 FY27: net profit up 10% to Rs 3,650 crore, revenue up 19% — Consolidated net profit rose 10% to Rs 3,650 crore and revenue rose 19% to Rs 10,821 crore, with growth across domestic ports, international ports, marine and logistics. source
04 Aug 2026 July 2026 cargo volumes up 15% YoY — APSEZ handled about 46.3 MMT in July 2026, up 15% YoY, with dry cargo up 21%; FY27 year-to-date volumes reached 184.4 MMT. source
02 Sep 2026 Record 50 MMT monthly cargo in August 2026 — APSEZ handled a record 50 MMT in August 2026, with dry cargo up 25% and containers up 15% YoY; year-to-date volume was 234.4 MMT, up 16%. source
09 Sep 2026 Adani Ports wins Paradip Port dry bulk berths contract — APSEZ received a Letter of Award for two dry bulk berths at Paradip Port on a 30-year BOT basis, adding 18 MMT capacity and taking its portfolio to 671 MMT. source

Educational summary. On 01 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -6.0% against -6.6% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Adani Ports & SEZ today.

Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 04 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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