Consumer lending NBFCHistorical case study · data as of 01 Jul 2026 · published 04 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Bajaj Finance — 100-point case study
How Bajaj Finance looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 01 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Prices are adjusted for the June 2025 1:2 split and 4:1 bonus. Lender metrics (NPA, NIM, CRAR, AUM growth) are consolidated figures taken from news and broker reports of the results, not the official release; NIM for Q4 FY26 is from one broker note.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 01 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.84%/day
Bullish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.84% a day — a short-term uptrend.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +15.0%
Neutral
The 100-session trend line was down (-0.03%/day) and the stock was +15.0% over three months, so the medium-term picture was neutral.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +8.4%
Neutral
Compared with a year earlier the price was +8.4%. Little net progress over twelve months.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 939.24 / 30W 942.31
Neutral
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 992.25→948.40; lows 889.00→860.45
Bearish
The two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
27.8
Bullish
ADX at 27.8 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 37.4 / –DI 11.6
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
937.81 (+8.2%)
Bullish
Close of 1,014.90 was 8.2% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
931.02 (+9.0%)
Bullish
Close of 1,014.90 was 9.0% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
967.82 (+4.9%)
Bullish
Close of 1,014.90 was 4.9% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 981.17 / 21E 954.53
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 16 Jun 2026.
12
Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)
no cross in data window
Bearish
The 50-day average was 3.8% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
13
50-day SMA slope
+3.2% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 3.2% over the past month — rising.
14
MA ribbon alignment
938 / 931 / 930 / 968
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
1,013.07 (+0.2%)
Bullish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 1,013.07; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
70.7
Caution
RSI at 70.7 was overbought (≥70) — strong momentum but stretched.
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 23.79 / signal 15.47
Bullish
MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
9.16 → 8.31
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
20
MACD vs zero line
23.79
Bullish
MACD above zero means the 12-day EMA was above the 26-day EMA — a positive momentum regime.
21
Stochastic (14,3,3)
%K 90.6 / %D 88.3
Caution
Slow stochastic at 90.6 was in overbought territory (>80).
22
Williams %R (14)
-6.7
Caution
%R of -6.7 put the close near the top of its 14-day range.
23
CCI (20)
118
Bullish
CCI at 118 signalled an unusually strong upward deviation (>+100).
24
Rate of change (10-day)
+5.8%
Bullish
Price changed +5.8% over ten sessions.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.89 (bands 840.04–1,035.59)
Neutral
%B of 0.89 — inside the bands, upper half.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 20.9% (88th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 88th percentile of the last six months, so volatility was elevated.
27
ATR (14)
₹24.34 (2.4% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹24.34, or 2.4% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
28.0% vs 1Y 29.2%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 28.0%, close to the one-year level of 29.2%.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
907.29–1,004.68
Bullish
The close was above the upper channel — a strong trending push.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.54
Neutral
A beta of 1.54 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.69× / 5-day 1.25×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.69× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.25× — heavier than usual participation.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.24
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 1.24× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
34
Accumulation/Distribution line
rising (20d)
Bullish
The A/D line rose, meaning closes tended to be in the upper part of daily ranges on meaningful volume.
35
Chaikin Money Flow (20)
0.06
Bullish
CMF at +0.06 indicated net inflows.
36
Money Flow Index (14)
71.9
Bullish
MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 71.9.
37
Liquidity (avg daily turnover)
₹933 cr/day
Neutral
About ₹933 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — highly liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
982.28 / 908.12 / 888.00
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 982.28, 3.3% below the close, then 908.12, 888.00.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
1,038.39 / 1,095.25
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 1,038.39, 2.3% above the close, then 1,095.25.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 1,013.07 | R1 1,027.23 | S1 1,000.73
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 1,013.07; the close was above it.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 849 | 38.2% 886 | 50.0% 917 | 61.8% 947
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month fall from 1,046.00 to 787.90, the close was nearest the 61.8% retracement at 947.41.
42
52-week high / low
H 1,102.50 / L 787.90
Neutral
The close was 7.9% below the 52-week high and 28.8% above the 52-week low.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
1 open; latest gap-up 15 Jun at 921.00
Neutral
There was 1 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 15 Jun 2026, left an open level at 921.00 that price had not revisited.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
broad sideways range
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: broad sideways range. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 860.45–1,010.95
Bullish
The close was breakout above the prior 20-day range of 860.45–1,010.95 — a range break.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary green candle
Neutral
On 01 Jul the candle opened 1,000.40, ranged 998.90–1,025.40 and closed 1,014.90: Ordinary green candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 890.08–926.29; Tenkan 986.70 / Kijun 942.93
Bullish
Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M +11.5% / 3M +12.0%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 12.0 points over three months and outperformed by 11.5 points over one month.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M +9.0%
Bullish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 9.0 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
50
Technical summary
23 bullish · 3 bearish · 20 neutral · 3 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 982.28, resistance 1,038.39. This is a description of the chart on 01 Jul 2026, not a forecast.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 01 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 01 Jul 2026 close.
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
32.7×
Neutral
At ₹1,014.90 the market valued the company at about ₹6,32,072 crore, or 32.7× the ₹19,332 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
2
Price / Book
5.54×
Neutral
Market cap was 5.54× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹1,13,999 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
3
Price / Revenue (interest earned)
7.68×
Neutral
Market cap was 7.68× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹82,322 crore.
4
Profit / Book (earnings power)
17.0%
Neutral
Trailing profit was 17.0% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 5.54× for.
5
Earnings yield
3.1%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹3.1 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
1.73
Neutral
P/E of 32.7 divided by 3-year profit growth of 18.9% a year gives a PEG of 1.73. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
0.59%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹6 a share, a 0.59% yield on the ₹1,014.90 price.
8
Market capitalisation
₹6,32,072 cr
Neutral
At about ₹6.32 lakh crore the company was a large-cap, among the largest listed companies in India.
9
Graham number vs price
₹357.55 vs ₹1,014.90
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹357.55; the price was 184% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+19.1%
Bullish
Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹81,985 crore, +19.1% versus FY25.
11
Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)
+18.1%
Bullish
The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹21,606 crore of revenue, +18.1% on the same quarter a year earlier.
12
Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)
+15.2%
Bullish
FY26 net profit was ₹19,332 crore, +15.2% on FY25's ₹16,779 crore.
13
Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)
+22.2%
Bullish
Quarterly profit was ₹5,553 crore versus ₹4,546 crore a year earlier (+22.2%).
14
Revenue CAGR (3 years)
25.6%
Bullish
Revenue compounded at 25.6% a year from FY23 to FY26.
15
Profit CAGR (3 years)
18.9%
Bullish
Net profit compounded at 18.9% a year from FY23 to FY26.
16
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
25.2%
Bullish
Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 25.2% a year.
17
EPS growth FY26 (reported)
+14.2%
Bullish
Reported EPS went from ₹26.77 to ₹30.56 (+14.2%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).
C. Profitability
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
18
Net interest margin (Q4 FY26)
9.60%
Bullish
NIM — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was 9.60% in Jan–Mar 2026 (as reported). Above ~3.5% is strong for an Indian bank.
19
Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)
+20.0%
Bullish
Core interest income after interest expense was ₹11,781 crore, +20.0% year on year (standalone, as reported).
20
Net profit margin FY26
23.6%
Neutral
₹23.6 of every ₹100 of interest-led revenue ended up as net profit in FY26.
21
Return on equity FY26
18.4%
Bullish
FY26 profit was 18.4% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak.
22
Leverage (assets ÷ equity)
4.9×
Neutral
Total assets were 4.9× equity — normal for banks, which fund most assets with deposits.
23
Return on assets FY26
3.45%
Bullish
Net profit was 3.45% of total assets. For banks, ROA above 1% is considered healthy.
24
Effective tax rate FY26
25%
Neutral
The company paid about 25% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%.
25
Q4 FY26 standalone profit (reported)
₹5,553 cr (+22.1%)
Bullish
The bank's own (standalone) Jan–Mar 2026 profit as reported was ₹5,553 crore, +22.1% year on year.
D. Asset quality & capital
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
26
Gross NPA (Q4 FY26)
1.01%
Bullish
Gross non-performing assets were 1.01% of loans — low by Indian standards.
27
Net NPA (Q4 FY26)
0.41%
Bullish
After provisions, net NPAs were 0.41% of loans.
28
CASA ratio
n/a
Neutral
Not reported in our sources for this period.
29
Capital adequacy (CRAR)
21.55%
Bullish
Capital adequacy was 21.55%, comfortably above the RBI minimum of 11.5% (incl. buffer).
30
Loan (advances) growth
+22.0%
Bullish
Advances grew +22.0% year on year (as reported).
31
Deposit growth
-4.0%
Bearish
Deposits grew -4.0% year on year (as reported).
32
Borrowings (consolidated)
₹4,35,112 cr
Neutral
Borrowings were ₹4,35,112 crore at Mar 2026 — lenders that don't take deposits fund their loans this way.
33
Book value growth
+17.9%
Bullish
Equity grew +17.9% to ₹1,13,999 crore — banks need book growth to support loan growth.
E. Cash flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
34
Operating cash flow FY26
₹-65,790 cr
Neutral
Operating cash flow was ₹-65,790 crore. For banks this swings with deposit and loan flows, so it says little about profitability.
35
Investing cash flow FY26
₹-3,389 cr
Neutral
Investing flows for banks mostly reflect securities and fixed-asset purchases.
36
Financing cash flow FY26
₹67,433 cr
Neutral
Financing flows reflect borrowings raised/repaid and dividends paid.
37
Net cash flow FY26
₹-1,746 cr
Neutral
Overall cash and balances changed by ₹-1,746 crore in FY26.
38
Investment book growth
-11.2%
Neutral
The investment portfolio (mostly government securities) moved -11.2% to ₹30,578 crore.
39
Loan growth minus deposit growth
+26.0 pts
Caution
Loans grew 22.0% and deposits -4.0%. When loans outpace deposits for long, banks must pay up for funding — a margin risk.
F. Dividends & shareholder returns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
40
Dividend payout ratio FY26
20%
Neutral
The company paid out about 20% of FY26 profit as dividends.
41
Dividend consistency (3 years)
15% / 21% / 20%
Bullish
Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year.
42
Share capital change (FY25→FY26)
+401.6%
Neutral
Paid-up equity capital rose +401.6%, consistent with a bonus issue or split — shareholders' ownership was not diluted.
G. Ownership
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
43
Promoter holding
54.71% (-0.02 pts YoY)
Neutral
Promoters owned 54.71% at Mar 2026 versus 54.73% a year earlier.
44
Foreign institutional holding
21.33% (-0.12 pts YoY)
Neutral
FIIs held 21.33% at Mar 2026, down from 21.45% a year before.
45
Domestic institutional holding
15.10% (+0.32 pts YoY)
Neutral
Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 15.10%, up from 14.78%.
46
Number of shareholders
10.0 lakh (+42.1% YoY)
Neutral
The shareholder count moved from 7.1 lakh to 10.0 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47
Promoter pledge
none reported
Neutral
Our source showed no pledged promoter shares.
H. Quality & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)
Strengths: Company has delivered good profit growth of 34.2% CAGR over last 5 years; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 18.6%; Company's median sales growth is 29.4% of last 10 years. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 5.18 times its book value; Company has low interest coverage ratio; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
50
Fundamental summary
20 bullish · 1 bearish · 27 neutral · 1 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 01 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 32.7×, P/B 5.54×. This describes the data, not a recommendation.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 01 Apr 2026 – 01 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
04 Apr 2026Bajaj Finance Q4 FY26 business update: AUM crosses Rs 5 lakh crore — Quarterly business update reported AUM of about Rs 5.10 lakh crore at 31 March 2026 (+22% YoY), 12.89 million new loans in Q4 (+20.5%), a customer franchise of 119.33 million, and a deposit book of about Rs 68,550 crore, down from Rs 71,403 crore a year earlier. source
28 Apr 2026CRISIL reaffirms Bajaj Finance at AAA/Stable, assigns rating to Rs 25,000 crore NCDs — CRISIL reaffirmed its long-term AAA/Stable and short-term A1+ ratings and assigned AAA/Stable to a new Rs 25,000 crore NCD programme, citing scale, capitalisation and group support, while flagging credit costs rising to 2.1% in 9MFY26. source
29 Apr 2026Bajaj Finance Q4 FY26 consolidated PAT rises 22% to Rs 5,553 crore; Rs 6 dividend — For Jan-Mar 2026, consolidated PAT rose about 22% YoY and NII rose 20% to Rs 11,781 crore. AUM grew 22% to Rs 5,09,975 crore. Gross NPA was 1.01% and net NPA 0.41%. The board recommended a final dividend of Rs 6 per share, with a record date of 30 June 2026. source
29 Apr 2026Board approves raising borrowing limit to Rs 5.5 lakh crore — At the same board meeting, directors approved raising the borrowing limit from Rs 3.75 lakh crore to Rs 5.5 lakh crore, subject to shareholder approval at the AGM scheduled for 30 July 2026. source
30 Apr 2026Bajaj Finance shares gain after Q4 results — The stock rose after the Q4 FY26 results. CRAR was 21.55% at 31 March 2026 and the provision coverage ratio on Stage 3 assets was 60%. source
20 May 2026Bajaj Finance allots Rs 1,025 crore of 10-year NCDs at 8.08% — The company allotted 1,02,500 secured NCDs of Rs 1 lakh each with an 8.08% coupon, maturing 20 May 2036 with a put option in May 2029, to be listed on BSE's wholesale debt segment. source
What happened next (01 Jul 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹1,014.90 to ₹948.30 by 01 Oct 2026 (-6.6%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.6% — outperforming by 0.0 points.
Highest ₹1,176.40 on 03 Aug 2026; lowest ₹937.30 on 01 Oct 2026.
S1 982.28: broken on a closing basis on 24 Sep 2026.
S2 908.12: held on a closing basis.
R1 1,038.39: cleared on a closing basis on 07 Jul 2026.
R2 1,095.25: cleared on a closing basis on 31 Jul 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 29 Sep 2026.
02 Jul 2026Q1 FY27 business update: AUM up 24% YoY, deposits about Rs 68,500 crore — The quarterly business update showed AUM growing about 24% YoY at 30 June 2026 and a deposit book of about Rs 68,500 crore. source
30 Jul 2026Bajaj Finance Q1 FY27 consolidated PAT up 28% to Rs 6,081 crore — For Apr-Jun 2026, consolidated PAT rose 28% YoY and NII rose 23% to Rs 12,571 crore. AUM grew 24% to Rs 5,46,944 crore. Gross NPA improved to 0.96% (from 1.03%) and net NPA to 0.39% (from 0.50%). source
31 Jul 2026Bajaj Finance shares jump 7% to 52-week high after Q1 results — The stock rose about 7% to a 52-week high of Rs 1,128 on the day after the Q1 FY27 results. source
07 Aug 2026Bajaj Finance falls nearly 6% on RBI draft curbs on NBFC revolving credit — Shares fell about 6% after RBI draft guidelines proposed that NBFCs without credit card authorisation could not offer revolving credit products. This raised concerns over the company's flexi-loan business. source
Educational summary. On 01 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -6.6% against -6.6% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Bajaj Finance today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 04 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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