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Two- and three-wheelers Historical case study · data as of 01 Jul 2026 · published 04 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

Bajaj Auto — 100-point case study

How Bajaj Auto looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 01 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: BAJAJ-AUTO · BSE: 532977
Close on 01 Jul 2026	₹9,842.00
Market cap then	₹2,70,461 crore
Valuation	P/E 25.6× · P/B 6.96×
Momentum	RSI (14) 44 · 1-year return +17.2%
Next 3 months	+2.1% vs Nifty 50 -6.6% (to 01 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

10 bullish · 26 neutral · 0 caution · 13 bearish — the picture was mixed.

Fundamental — 50 points

13 bullish · 28 neutral · 6 caution · 2 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Data note: Bajaj Auto's ₹12,000-per-share buyback by tender offer (record date 24 Jun 2026) was open on the snapshot date (1–7 Jul 2026), which can affect trading around that period.

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 01 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope -0.30%/day	Bearish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.30% a day — a short-term downtrend.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return +8.8%	Bullish	The 100-session trend line was up (+0.08%/day) and the stock was +8.8% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return +17.2%	Bullish	Compared with a year earlier the price was +17.2%. A strong positive year.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 10,224.85 / 30W 9,683.92	Neutral	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 10,834.00→10,268.00; lows 10,078.50→9,902.00	Bearish	The two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	18.5	Neutral	ADX at 18.5 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 17.4 / –DI 27.2	Bearish	–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	10,038.15 (-2.0%)	Bearish	Close of 9,842.00 was 2.0% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	10,135.42 (-2.9%)	Bearish	Close of 9,842.00 was 2.9% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	9,453.07 (+4.1%)	Bullish	Close of 9,842.00 was 4.1% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 9,869.64 / 21E 10,005.55	Bearish	The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 10 Jun 2026.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bullish	The 50-day average was 7.2% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
13	50-day SMA slope	+3.4% in 20 sessions	Bullish	The 50-day average rose 3.4% over the past month — rising.
14	MA ribbon alignment	10,038 / 10,135 / 9,813 / 9,453	Neutral	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	9,834.67 (+0.1%)	Bullish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 9,834.67; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	43.6	Bearish	RSI at 43.6 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	none	Neutral	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD -115.93 / signal -73.75	Bearish	MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	-43.78 → -42.18	Bullish	The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
20	MACD vs zero line	-115.93	Bearish	MACD below zero means the 12-day EMA was below the 26-day EMA — a negative momentum regime.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 25.0 / %D 16.4	Bullish	Slow stochastic at 25.0 was mid-range with %K above %D.
22	Williams %R (14)	-55.5	Neutral	%R of -55.5 put the close in the middle of its 14-day range.
23	CCI (20)	-90	Neutral	CCI at -90 was within the normal ±100 band.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	-1.0%	Neutral	Price changed -1.0% over ten sessions.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.26 (bands 9,628.61–10,447.69)	Neutral	%B of 0.26 — inside the bands, lower half.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 8.2% (39th pct of 6M)	Neutral	Band width was at the 39th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
27	ATR (14)	₹225.28 (2.3% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹225.28, or 2.3% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	21.7% vs 1Y 22.3%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 21.7%, close to the one-year level of 22.3%.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	9,554.33–10,442.88	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	0.96	Neutral	A beta of 0.96 means the stock tended to move roughly in line with the Nifty 50 day to day.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 0.53× / 5-day 1.01×	Neutral	The final session traded 0.53× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.01× — normal participation.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 1.13	Neutral	Average volume on up days was 1.13× that on down days — balanced.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV falling	Bearish	OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	falling (20d)	Bearish	The A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	-0.16	Bearish	CMF at -0.16 indicated net outflows.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	33.4	Bearish	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 33.4.
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹383 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹383 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	9,646.25 / 9,395.50 / 8,773.11	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 9,646.25, 2.0% below the close, then 9,395.50, 8,773.11.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	10,035.64 / 10,809.50	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 10,035.64, 2.0% above the close, then 10,809.50.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 9,834.67 \| R1 9,907.33 \| S1 9,769.33	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 9,834.67; the close was above it.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 10,312 \| 38.2% 9,990 \| 50.0% 9,729 \| 61.8% 9,468	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month rise from 8,624.00 to 10,834.00, the close was nearest the 50.0% retracement at 9,729.00.
42	52-week high / low	H 10,834.00 / L 7,858.50	Neutral	The close was 9.2% below the 52-week high and 25.2% above the 52-week low.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	3 open; latest gap-up 01 Jul at 9,750.00	Neutral	There were 3 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 01 Jul 2026, left an open level at 9,750.00 that price had not revisited.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	pullback inside a larger uptrend	Neutral	Rule-based pattern scan: pullback inside a larger uptrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 9,501.00–10,452.00	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 9,501.00–10,452.00.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary green candle	Neutral	On 01 Jul the candle opened 9,762.00, ranged 9,762.00–9,900.00 and closed 9,842.00: Ordinary green candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 9,704.50–10,242.88; Tenkan 9,884.50 / Kijun 10,167.50	Neutral	Price was inside the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — an undecided Ichimoku setup.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M -7.8% / 3M +5.8%	Bullish	The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 5.8 points over three months and underperformed by 7.8 points over one month.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M +15.7%	Bullish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 15.7 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
50	Technical summary	10 bullish · 13 bearish · 26 neutral · 0 caution	Neutral	Across the 49 readings the technical picture was mixed. Levels that mattered: support 9,646.25, resistance 10,035.64. This is a description of the chart on 01 Jul 2026, not a forecast.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 01 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 01 Jul 2026 close.

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	25.6×	Neutral	At ₹9,842.00 the market valued the company at about ₹2,70,461 crore, or 25.6× the ₹10,574 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
2	Price / Book	6.96×	Neutral	Market cap was 6.96× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹38,832 crore.
3	Price / Sales	4.30×	Neutral	The company was valued at 4.30× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹62,904 crore.
4	EV / EBITDA (approx.)	23.6×	Neutral	Enterprise value (market cap + ₹22,713 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 23.6× trailing operating profit of ₹12,427 crore.
5	Earnings yield	3.9%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹3.9 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	1.25	Neutral	P/E of 25.6 divided by 3-year profit growth of 20.4% a year gives a PEG of 1.25. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Note: the Mar 2026 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹1,894 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	1.52%	Neutral	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹150 a share, a 1.52% yield on the ₹9,842.00 price.
8	Market capitalisation	₹2,70,461 cr	Neutral	At about ₹2.70 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
9	Graham number vs price	₹3,497.71 vs ₹9,842.00	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹3,497.71; the price was 181% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+23.4%	Bullish	Revenue for FY26 was ₹62,905 crore, +23.4% versus FY25.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+41.0%	Bullish	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹17,832 crore of revenue, +41.0% on the same quarter a year earlier.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+44.4%	Caution	FY26 net profit was ₹10,574 crore, +44.4% on FY25's ₹7,325 crore. Note: the Mar 2026 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹1,894 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	+93.8%	Caution	Quarterly profit was ₹3,492 crore versus ₹1,802 crore a year earlier (+93.8%). Note: the Mar 2026 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹1,894 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	19.9%	Bullish	Revenue compounded at 19.9% a year from FY23 to FY26.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	20.4%	Caution	Net profit compounded at 20.4% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: the Mar 2026 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹1,894 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	17.8%	Bullish	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 17.8% a year.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+46.6%	Caution	Reported EPS went from ₹262.29 to ₹384.41 (+46.6%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Note: the Mar 2026 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹1,894 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Operating margin FY26	21%	Neutral	Operating profit (EBITDA) was 21% of sales in FY26 versus 19% in FY25.
19	Operating margin trend (4 quarters)	21% → 18% → 23% → 17%	Bearish	Quarterly margins moved from 21% to 17% over the last four quarters — contracting.
20	Net profit margin FY26	16.8%	Neutral	₹16.8 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26.
21	Return on equity FY26	28.6%	Bullish	FY26 profit was 28.6% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak.
22	ROCE FY26	28%	Bullish	Return on capital employed (debt + equity) was 28% in FY26.
23	Return on assets FY26	13.75%	Neutral	Net profit was 13.75% of total assets.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	24%	Neutral	The company paid about 24% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%.
25	Other income share of pre-tax profit	19%	Neutral	Non-operating 'other income' of ₹2,668 crore made up 19% of pre-tax profit.

D. Balance sheet

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Debt / equity	0.58	Neutral	Borrowings of ₹22,713 crore were 0.58× equity — moderate leverage.
27	Debt / EBITDA	1.73×	Neutral	Debt equalled 1.73 years of FY26 operating profit.
28	Interest coverage	12.9×	Bullish	Earnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 12.9 times.
29	Book value growth	+10.4%	Bullish	Shareholders' equity grew +10.4% from ₹35,188 crore to ₹38,832 crore in FY26.
30	Capital work in progress	₹1,521 cr (13% of fixed assets)	Neutral	Projects under construction (CWIP) were 13% of fixed assets — a modest pipeline.
31	Working capital days	22 days	Neutral	Working capital tied up equalled 22 days of sales (FY25: -6). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations.
32	Cash conversion cycle	-1 days	Neutral	It took -1 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit.
33	Debtor days	20 (FY25 15)	Caution	Customers took 20 days on average to pay, versus 15 a year earlier — a notable stretch in collections.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹2,597 cr	Bullish	The business generated ₹2,597 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹-1,406 crore in FY25.
35	Free cash flow FY26	₹1,885 cr	Bullish	After capital spending, free cash flow was ₹1,885 crore.
36	Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)	0.25×	Caution	Operating cash flow was 0.25× reported profit — cash lagged profits; worth watching.
37	Free-cash-flow yield	0.7%	Neutral	FY26 free cash flow was 0.7% of the snapshot market cap.
38	Free cash flow — 3-year total	₹5,459 cr	Bullish	Free cash flow over FY24–FY26 added up to ₹5,459 crore.
39	Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)	₹712 cr	Neutral	Implied capital expenditure was about ₹712 crore, 1.1% of sales.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	39%	Neutral	The company paid out about 39% of FY26 profit as dividends.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	29% / 80% / 39%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+0.4%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital changed +0.4% (₹279 cr → ₹280 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	55.01% (-0.02 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 55.01% at Mar 2026 versus 55.03% a year earlier.
44	Foreign institutional holding	8.82% (-2.79 pts YoY)	Bearish	FIIs held 8.82% at Mar 2026, down from 11.61% a year before.
45	Domestic institutional holding	14.35% (+3.43 pts YoY)	Bullish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 14.35%, up from 10.92%.
46	Number of shareholders	3.1 lakh (-8.8% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 3.4 lakh to 3.1 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	5/8	Neutral	Passed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, operating margin improved, ROA improved, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: CFO > net profit, leverage fell, asset turnover improved.
49	Automated screen flags	3 strength(s) · 1 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Company expected to deliver solid quarterly performance; Strong return on equity history: 3-year ROE of 26.3%; Consistent dividend payouts maintained at 49.4%. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 7.23 times its book value. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
50	Fundamental summary	13 bullish · 2 bearish · 28 neutral · 6 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 01 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 25.6×, P/B 6.96×. This describes the data, not a recommendation.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 01 Apr 2026 – 01 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

04 May 2026 Bajaj Auto April 2026 total sales rise 40% to 5,13,792 units — Total sales of 5,13,792 units, up 40% YoY; domestic 2,48,210 units (+13%) and exports 2,65,582 units (+83%). source
06 May 2026 Bajaj Auto Q4 FY26 profit up 34%; Rs 150 dividend and up to Rs 5,633 crore buyback announced — Standalone Q4 FY26 net profit Rs 2,746 crore (+34% YoY) on revenue from operations of Rs 16,005 crore (+32%). Board declared Rs 150/share dividend (record date May 29, 2026) and a buyback of up to Rs 5,633 crore at Rs 12,000 per share. source
30 Jun 2026 Bajaj Auto buyback at Rs 12,000 per share to open July 1 — Tender-offer buyback of 46.94 lakh shares (about 1.68% of paid-up capital) worth Rs 5,632.80 crore; record date June 24, 2026, tender window July 1-7, 2026; promoters not participating. source
01 Jul 2026 Bajaj Auto buyback: record date June 24, offer open July 1-7, 2026 — Buyback details listing record date June 24, 2026, offer period July 1-7, settlement July 14 and share extinguishment July 23, 2026. source

What happened next (01 Jul 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹9,842.00 to ₹10,045.00 by 01 Oct 2026 (+2.1%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.6% — outperforming by 8.7 points.
Highest ₹12,470.00 on 01 Sep 2026; lowest ₹9,716.00 on 02 Jul 2026.
S1 9,646.25: held on a closing basis.
S2 9,395.50: held on a closing basis.
R1 10,035.64: cleared on a closing basis on 06 Jul 2026.
R2 10,809.50: cleared on a closing basis on 22 Jul 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 01 Oct 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 21 Jul 2026): revenue ₹21,689 crore (+65.1% YoY), net profit ₹3,189 crore (+44.3% YoY), operating margin 21% vs 21% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).

Later news

02 Jul 2026 Bajaj Auto June 2026 sales rise 28% to 4.63 lakh units — Total June sales of 4,63,202 units (+28% YoY); domestic 2,09,837 (+11%), exports 2,53,365 (+47%). Q1 FY27 volumes 14,38,251 units (+29%). source
21 Jul 2026 Bajaj Auto Q1 FY27: standalone profit up 42%, consolidated profit up 46% — Standalone net profit Rs 2,983 crore (+42% YoY) on revenue of Rs 17,244 crore (+37%); consolidated net profit Rs 3,226 crore and consolidated revenue Rs 21,689 crore. Exports exceeded 7 lakh units in a quarter for the first time. source
22 Jul 2026 Bajaj Auto shares hit 52-week high after Q1 results — Shares rose over 4% to a 52-week high of Rs 10,838 on NSE the day after the Q1 FY27 results. source
01 Aug 2026 Bajaj Auto July 2026 sales up 30% to 4,74,677 units — July total sales 4,74,677 units (+30% YoY); domestic 2,20,192, exports 2,54,485 (+39%). source
01 Sep 2026 Bajaj Auto August 2026 sales grow 28% to 5,35,764 units — Total sales 5,35,764 units (+28% YoY); domestic 2,55,708 (+10%), exports 2,80,056 (+51%). source

Educational summary. On 01 Jul 2026 the technical picture was mixed and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved +2.1% against -6.6% for the Nifty 50. A mixed chart gave no clear message, and the outcome shows why mixed readings are hard to act on. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Bajaj Auto today.

Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 04 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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