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Financial services holding company Historical case study · data as of 01 Jul 2026 · published 04 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

Bajaj Finserv — 100-point case study

How Bajaj Finserv looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 01 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

CodesNSE: BAJAJFINSV · BSE: 532978
Close on 01 Jul 2026₹1,797.60
Market cap then₹2,87,920 crore
ValuationP/E 14.6× · P/B 3.70×
MomentumRSI (14) 58 · 1-year return -12.5%
Next 3 months-3.6% vs Nifty 50 -6.6% (to 01 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

16 bullish · 23 neutral · 2 caution · 8 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Fundamental — 50 points

10 bullish · 29 neutral · 1 caution · 9 bearish — the picture was mixed.

Price chart

1,5611,7291,8962,0632,231Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26R2 1,855R1 1,805S1 1,729S2 1,652Snapshot 01 JulWhat happened next →
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Bajaj Finserv is a holding company (Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Allianz insurers). Screener's consolidated net profit includes minority interest and is roughly double the profit attributable to Bajaj Finserv shareholders, so profit-based ratios should be read with care.

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 01 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

A. Trend

#PointReadingTagCommentary
1Short-term trend (20 days)slope +0.33%/dayBullishOver the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.33% a day — a short-term uptrend.
2Medium-term trend (~5 months)3M return +2.9%BearishThe 100-session trend line was down (-0.15%/day) and the stock was +2.9% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
3Long-term trend (1 year)1Y return -12.5%BearishCompared with a year earlier the price was -12.5%. A weak year for the stock.
4Weekly chart trend10W 1,756.71 / 30W 1,860.57NeutralOn the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
5Swing structure (highs/lows)last highs 1,817.60→1,801.80; lows 1,693.80→1,640.50BearishThe two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure.
6ADX (14) — trend strength20.7BullishADX at 20.7 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
7+DI vs –DI+DI 19.8 / –DI 16.4Bullish+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.

B. Moving averages

#PointReadingTagCommentary
8Price vs 20-day SMA1,739.30 (+3.4%)BullishClose of 1,797.60 was 3.4% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
9Price vs 50-day SMA1,764.22 (+1.9%)BullishClose of 1,797.60 was 1.9% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
10Price vs 200-day SMA1,933.28 (-7.0%)BearishClose of 1,797.60 was 7.0% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
119 / 21 EMA crossover9E 1,771.21 / 21E 1,759.10BullishThe 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 19 Jun 2026.
12Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)no cross in data windowBearishThe 50-day average was 8.7% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
1350-day SMA slope+0.1% in 20 sessionsNeutralThe 50-day average rose 0.1% over the past month — flattening.
14MA ribbon alignment1,739 / 1,764 / 1,819 / 1,933BearishThe 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bearish (20 < 50 < 100 < 200).
15Monthly anchored VWAP1,782.83 (+0.8%)BullishAnchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 1,782.83; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.

C. Momentum

#PointReadingTagCommentary
16RSI (14)57.8BullishRSI at 57.8 showed positive momentum without being overbought.
17RSI divergence (last 40 days)noneNeutralComparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
18MACD line vs signalMACD 8.01 / signal 0.98BullishMACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
19MACD histogram (5-day change)9.35 → 7.02BearishThe histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
20MACD vs zero line8.01BullishMACD above zero means the 12-day EMA was above the 26-day EMA — a positive momentum regime.
21Stochastic (14,3,3)%K 84.4 / %D 80.9CautionSlow stochastic at 84.4 was in overbought territory (>80).
22Williams %R (14)-7.0Caution%R of -7.0 put the close near the top of its 14-day range.
23CCI (20)77NeutralCCI at 77 was within the normal ±100 band.
24Rate of change (10-day)+0.6%NeutralPrice changed +0.6% over ten sessions.

D. Volatility

#PointReadingTagCommentary
25Bollinger Band position (%B)%B 0.81 (bands 1,646.53–1,832.08)Neutral%B of 0.81 — inside the bands, upper half.
26Bollinger width / squeezewidth 10.7% (62nd pct of 6M)NeutralBand width was at the 62nd percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
27ATR (14)₹39.81 (2.2% of price)NeutralA typical day's range was about ₹39.81, or 2.2% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
28Historical volatility (30-day)22.1% vs 1Y 22.5%NeutralAnnualised 30-day volatility was 22.1%, close to the one-year level of 22.5%.
29Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)1,679.08–1,839.87NeutralThe close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
30Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)1.31NeutralA beta of 1.31 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.

E. Volume & money flow

#PointReadingTagCommentary
31Volume vs 20-day averagelast day 1.56× / 5-day 1.15×NeutralThe final session traded 1.56× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.15× — normal participation.
32Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)ratio 1.58BullishAverage volume on up days was 1.58× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
33On-Balance Volume (20d)OBV risingBullishOBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
34Accumulation/Distribution linerising (20d)BullishThe A/D line rose, meaning closes tended to be in the upper part of daily ranges on meaningful volume.
35Chaikin Money Flow (20)0.11BullishCMF at +0.11 indicated net inflows.
36Money Flow Index (14)62.0BullishMFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 62.0.
37Liquidity (avg daily turnover)₹199 cr/dayNeutralAbout ₹199 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.

F. Price levels

#PointReadingTagCommentary
38Support levels (S1/S2/S3)1,728.84 / 1,651.60 / 1,597.00NeutralNearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 1,728.84, 4.0% below the close, then 1,651.60, 1,597.00.
39Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)1,805.32 / 1,854.80 / 2,075.67NeutralNearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 1,805.32, 0.4% above the close, then 1,854.80, 2,075.67.
40Monthly pivot points (for next month)P 1,782.83 | R1 1,824.17 | S1 1,756.27NeutralClassic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 1,782.83; the close was above it.
41Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)23.6% 1,711 | 38.2% 1,782 | 50.0% 1,840 | 61.8% 1,897NeutralMeasuring the 6-month fall from 2,082.00 to 1,597.00, the close was nearest the 38.2% retracement at 1,782.27.
4252-week high / lowH 2,195.00 / L 1,597.00NeutralThe close was 18.1% below the 52-week high and 12.6% above the 52-week low.
43Unfilled price gaps (6M)2 open; latest gap-up 15 Jun at 1,692.00NeutralThere were 2 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 15 Jun 2026, left an open level at 1,692.00 that price had not revisited.

G. Patterns

#PointReadingTagCommentary
44Price structure / chart patterncounter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrendNeutralRule-based pattern scan: counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
45Breakout / breakdown (20-day)range 1,640.50–1,801.80NeutralThe close was inside the prior 20-day range of 1,640.50–1,801.80.
46Latest candlestickOrdinary green candleNeutralOn 01 Jul the candle opened 1,760.00, ranged 1,741.50–1,809.40 and closed 1,797.60: Ordinary green candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
47Ichimoku Cloudcloud 1,757.45–1,759.65; Tenkan 1,775.45 / Kijun 1,729.05BullishPrice was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.

H. Relative strength & summary

#PointReadingTagCommentary
48Relative strength vs Nifty 501M -0.5% / 3M -0.1%NeutralThe stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 0.1 points over three months and underperformed by 0.5 points over one month.
49Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)6M -4.0%BearishNo sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 4.0 points behind the Nifty 50.
50Technical summary16 bullish · 8 bearish · 23 neutral · 2 cautionBullishAcross the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 1,728.84, resistance 1,805.32. This is a description of the chart on 01 Jul 2026, not a forecast.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 01 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 01 Jul 2026 close.

A. Valuation

#PointReadingTagCommentary
1P/E (trailing 12 months)14.6×NeutralAt ₹1,797.60 the market valued the company at about ₹2,87,920 crore, or 14.6× the ₹19,669 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms.
2Price / Book3.70×NeutralMarket cap was 3.70× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹77,915 crore.
3Price / Sales1.91×NeutralThe company was valued at 1.91× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹1,50,893 crore.
4EV / EBITDA (approx.)12.7×NeutralEnterprise value (market cap + ₹4,29,914 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 12.7× trailing operating profit of ₹56,742 crore.
5Earnings yield6.8%NeutralThe inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹6.8 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)0.85BullishP/E of 14.6 divided by 3-year profit growth of 17.2% a year gives a PEG of 0.85. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
7Dividend yield (trailing 12M)0.08%NeutralDividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹1.5 a share, a 0.08% yield on the ₹1,797.60 price.
8Market capitalisation₹2,87,920 crNeutralAt about ₹2.88 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
9Graham number vs price₹1,159.35 vs ₹1,797.60NeutralBenjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹1,159.35; the price was 55% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.

B. Growth

#PointReadingTagCommentary
10Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)+13.2%BullishRevenue for FY26 was ₹1,50,530 crore, +13.2% versus FY25.
11Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)+5.7%NeutralThe Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹38,494 crore of revenue, +5.7% on the same quarter a year earlier.
12Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)+12.0%BullishFY26 net profit was ₹19,669 crore, +12.0% on FY25's ₹17,558 crore.
13Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)+9.9%NeutralQuarterly profit was ₹5,226 crore versus ₹4,756 crore a year earlier (+9.9%).
14Revenue CAGR (3 years)22.4%BullishRevenue compounded at 22.4% a year from FY23 to FY26.
15Profit CAGR (3 years)17.2%BullishNet profit compounded at 17.2% a year from FY23 to FY26.
16Revenue CAGR (5 years)20.0%BullishOver five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 20.0% a year.
17EPS growth FY26 (reported)+10.2%BullishReported EPS went from ₹55.57 to ₹61.24 (+10.2%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).

C. Profitability

#PointReadingTagCommentary
18Operating margin FY2638%NeutralOperating profit (EBITDA) was 38% of sales in FY26 versus 37% in FY25.
19Operating margin trend (4 quarters)41% → 38% → 35% → 38%BearishQuarterly margins moved from 41% to 38% over the last four quarters — contracting.
20Net profit margin FY2613.1%Neutral₹13.1 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26.
21Return on equity FY2626.2%BullishFY26 profit was 26.2% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak.
22ROCE FY2611%NeutralReturn on capital employed (debt + equity) was 11% in FY26.
23Return on assets FY262.59%NeutralNet profit was 2.59% of total assets.
24Effective tax rate FY2627%NeutralThe company paid about 27% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%.
25Other income share of pre-tax profit-1%NeutralNon-operating 'other income' of ₹-382 crore made up -1% of pre-tax profit.

D. Balance sheet

#PointReadingTagCommentary
26Debt / equity5.52BearishBorrowings of ₹4,29,914 crore were 5.52× equity — high leverage.
27Debt / EBITDA7.53×BearishDebt equalled 7.53 years of FY26 operating profit.
28Interest coverage1.9×BearishEarnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 1.9 times.
29Book value growth+7.6%NeutralShareholders' equity grew +7.6% from ₹72,396 crore to ₹77,915 crore in FY26.
30Capital work in progress₹321 cr (5% of fixed assets)NeutralProjects under construction (CWIP) were 5% of fixed assets — a modest pipeline.
31Working capital days-364 daysNeutralWorking capital tied up equalled -364 days of sales (FY25: -377). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations.
32Cash conversion cycle23 daysNeutralIt took 23 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit.
33Debtor days23 (FY25 23)NeutralCustomers took 23 days on average to pay, versus 23 a year earlier.

E. Cash flow

#PointReadingTagCommentary
34Operating cash flow FY26₹-55,301 crBearishThe business generated ₹-55,301 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹-61,750 crore in FY25.
35Free cash flow FY26₹-56,619 crBearishAfter capital spending, free cash flow was ₹-56,619 crore.
36Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)-2.81×CautionOperating cash flow was -2.81× reported profit — cash lagged profits; worth watching.
37Free-cash-flow yield-19.7%NeutralFY26 free cash flow was -19.7% of the snapshot market cap.
38Free cash flow — 3-year total₹-1,86,896 crBearishFree cash flow over FY24–FY26 added up to ₹-1,86,896 crore.
39Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)₹1,318 crNeutralImplied capital expenditure was about ₹1,318 crore, 0.9% of sales.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#PointReadingTagCommentary
40Dividend payout ratio FY262%NeutralThe company paid out about 2% of FY26 profit as dividends.
41Dividend consistency (3 years)2% / 2% / 2%BullishPayout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year.
42Share capital change (FY25→FY26)+0.0%NeutralPaid-up equity capital changed +0.0% (₹160 cr → ₹160 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution.

G. Ownership

#PointReadingTagCommentary
43Promoter holding58.72% (-1.92 pts YoY)BearishPromoters owned 58.72% at Mar 2026 versus 60.64% a year earlier.
44Foreign institutional holding7.23% (-0.30 pts YoY)NeutralFIIs held 7.23% at Mar 2026, down from 7.53% a year before.
45Domestic institutional holding11.76% (+2.77 pts YoY)BullishMutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 11.76%, up from 8.99%.
46Number of shareholders6.0 lakh (-15.1% YoY)NeutralThe shareholder count moved from 7.1 lakh to 6.0 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47Promoter pledgenone reportedNeutralOur source showed no pledged promoter shares.

H. Quality & summary

#PointReadingTagCommentary
48Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)3/8BearishPassed: positive profit, operating margin improved, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: positive operating cash flow, CFO > net profit, leverage fell, ROA improved, asset turnover improved.
49Automated screen flags1 strength(s) · 3 weakness(es)NeutralStrengths: Company's median sales growth is 20.2% of last 10 years. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 3.56 times its book value; Company has low interest coverage ratio; Company has a low return on equity of 13.8% over last 3 years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
50Fundamental summary10 bullish · 9 bearish · 29 neutral · 1 cautionNeutralOn the numbers published by 01 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture was mixed. Valuation: P/E 14.6×, P/B 3.70×. This describes the data, not a recommendation.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 01 Apr 2026 – 01 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

What happened next (01 Jul 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)

Later news

Educational summary. On 01 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture was mixed. Over the next three months the stock moved -3.6% against -6.6% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Bajaj Finserv today.

Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 04 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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