10 new case studies · 14 news items · updated 03 Oct 2026ContactEducation only · not investment advice
Manage Our FinanceIndian stock case studies · every morning

Today › FMCG & cigarettes › ITC

FMCG & cigarettes Historical case study · data as of 30 Jun 2026 · published 03 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

ITC — 100-point case study

How ITC looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 30 Jun 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

CodesNSE: ITC · BSE: 500875
Close on 30 Jun 2026₹286.95
Market cap then₹3,59,423 crore
ValuationP/E 17.1× · P/B 4.96×
MomentumRSI (14) 43 · 1-year return -31.1%
Next 3 months-10.8% vs Nifty 50 -6.0% (to 01 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

9 bullish · 20 neutral · 0 caution · 20 bearish — the picture leaned negative.

Fundamental — 50 points

13 bullish · 27 neutral · 5 caution · 4 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

244293341389437Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26R2 312R1 295S1 275Snapshot 30 JunWhat happened next →
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: FY25 and the Jan–Mar 2025 quarter include a large one-off gain linked to the ITC Hotels demerger (Jan 2025), which makes FY26 profit growth look much worse than the underlying business.

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 30 Jun 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

A. Trend

#PointReadingTagCommentary
1Short-term trend (20 days)slope +0.24%/dayBullishOver the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.24% a day — a short-term uptrend.
2Medium-term trend (~5 months)3M return -1.5%BearishThe 100-session trend line was down (-0.11%/day) and the stock was -1.5% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
3Long-term trend (1 year)1Y return -31.1%BearishCompared with a year earlier the price was -31.1%. A weak year for the stock.
4Weekly chart trend10W 295.56 / 30W 317.15BearishOn the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week.
5Swing structure (highs/lows)last highs 314.25→294.55; lows 300.10→275.05BearishThe two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure.
6ADX (14) — trend strength15.9NeutralADX at 15.9 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
7+DI vs –DI+DI 18.3 / –DI 21.9Bearish–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.

B. Moving averages

#PointReadingTagCommentary
8Price vs 20-day SMA286.25 (+0.2%)BullishClose of 286.95 was 0.2% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
9Price vs 50-day SMA297.52 (-3.6%)BearishClose of 286.95 was 3.6% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
10Price vs 200-day SMA348.09 (-17.6%)BearishClose of 286.95 was 17.6% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
119 / 21 EMA crossover9E 289.30 / 21E 290.03BearishThe 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 25 May 2026.
12Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)no cross in data windowBearishThe 50-day average was 14.5% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
1350-day SMA slope-1.6% in 20 sessionsBearishThe 50-day average fell 1.6% over the past month — declining.
14MA ribbon alignment286 / 298 / 303 / 348BearishThe 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bearish (20 < 50 < 100 < 200).
15Monthly anchored VWAP284.55 (+0.8%)BullishAnchored to the start of June, the volume-weighted average price was 284.55; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.

C. Momentum

#PointReadingTagCommentary
16RSI (14)42.7BearishRSI at 42.7 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
17RSI divergence (last 40 days)bullish divergenceBullishComparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI made a higher low — selling momentum was fading.
18MACD line vs signalMACD -1.61 / signal -2.52BullishMACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
19MACD histogram (5-day change)1.57 → 0.91BearishThe histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
20MACD vs zero line-1.61BearishMACD below zero means the 12-day EMA was below the 26-day EMA — a negative momentum regime.
21Stochastic (14,3,3)%K 68.1 / %D 73.3BearishSlow stochastic at 68.1 was mid-range with %K below %D.
22Williams %R (14)-47.8Neutral%R of -47.8 put the close in the middle of its 14-day range.
23CCI (20)28NeutralCCI at 28 was within the normal ±100 band.
24Rate of change (10-day)-0.3%NeutralPrice changed -0.3% over ten sessions.

D. Volatility

#PointReadingTagCommentary
25Bollinger Band position (%B)%B 0.53 (bands 276.26–296.25)Neutral%B of 0.53 — inside the bands, upper half.
26Bollinger width / squeezewidth 7.0% (25th pct of 6M)NeutralBand width was at the 25th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
27ATR (14)₹4.57 (1.6% of price)NeutralA typical day's range was about ₹4.57, or 1.6% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
28Historical volatility (30-day)18.8% vs 1Y 19.5%NeutralAnnualised 30-day volatility was 18.8%, close to the one-year level of 19.5%.
29Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)281.24–298.54NeutralThe close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
30Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)0.56NeutralA beta of 0.56 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.

E. Volume & money flow

#PointReadingTagCommentary
31Volume vs 20-day averagelast day 1.28× / 5-day 0.78×NeutralThe final session traded 1.28× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.78× — lighter than usual participation.
32Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)ratio 0.99NeutralAverage volume on up days was 0.99× that on down days — balanced.
33On-Balance Volume (20d)OBV risingBullishOBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
34Accumulation/Distribution linerising (20d)BullishThe A/D line rose, meaning closes tended to be in the upper part of daily ranges on meaningful volume.
35Chaikin Money Flow (20)0.15BullishCMF at +0.15 indicated net inflows.
36Money Flow Index (14)60.5BullishMFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 60.5.
37Liquidity (avg daily turnover)₹404 cr/dayNeutralAbout ₹404 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.

F. Price levels

#PointReadingTagCommentary
38Support levels (S1/S2/S3)275.05NeutralNearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 275.05, 4.3% below the close.
39Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)294.55 / 311.72 / 326.92NeutralNearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 294.55, 2.6% above the close, then 311.72, 326.92.
40Monthly pivot points (for next month)P 285.52 | R1 295.98 | S1 276.48NeutralClassic pivots from June's high/low/close gave a pivot of 285.52; the close was above it.
41Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)23.6% 307 | 38.2% 326 | 50.0% 342 | 61.8% 358NeutralMeasuring the 6-month fall from 409.50 to 275.05, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 306.78.
4252-week high / lowH 427.00 / L 275.05BearishThe close was 32.8% below the 52-week high and 4.3% above the 52-week low.
43Unfilled price gaps (6M)2 open; latest gap-down 27 May at 301.10NeutralThere were 2 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 27 May 2026, left an open level at 301.10 that price had not revisited.

G. Patterns

#PointReadingTagCommentary
44Price structure / chart patterncounter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrendNeutralRule-based pattern scan: counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
45Breakout / breakdown (20-day)range 275.05–294.55NeutralThe close was inside the prior 20-day range of 275.05–294.55.
46Latest candlestickBearish engulfingBearishOn 30 Jun the candle opened 291.50, ranged 285.50–291.60 and closed 286.95: Bearish engulfing. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
47Ichimoku Cloudcloud 302.45–308.09; Tenkan 290.02 / Kijun 291.02BearishPrice was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.

H. Relative strength & summary

#PointReadingTagCommentary
48Relative strength vs Nifty 501M -1.3% / 3M -5.6%BearishThe stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 5.6 points over three months and underperformed by 1.3 points over one month.
49Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)6M -20.4%BearishNo sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 20.4 points behind the Nifty 50.
50Technical summary9 bullish · 20 bearish · 20 neutral · 0 cautionBearishAcross the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 275.05, resistance 294.55. This is a description of the chart on 30 Jun 2026, not a forecast.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 30 Jun 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 30 Jun 2026 close.

A. Valuation

#PointReadingTagCommentary
1P/E (trailing 12 months)17.1×NeutralAt ₹286.95 the market valued the company at about ₹3,59,423 crore, or 17.1× the ₹21,018 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
2Price / Book4.96×NeutralMarket cap was 4.96× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹72,507 crore.
3Price / Sales4.56×NeutralThe company was valued at 4.56× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹78,869 crore.
4EV / EBITDA (approx.)13.2×NeutralEnterprise value (market cap + ₹2,399 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 13.2× trailing operating profit of ₹27,318 crore.
5Earnings yield5.8%NeutralThe inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹5.8 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)6.65CautionP/E of 17.1 divided by 3-year profit growth of 2.6% a year gives a PEG of 6.65. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Note: the Mar 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹15,391 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
7Dividend yield (trailing 12M)5.05%BullishDividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹14.5 a share, a 5.05% yield on the ₹286.95 price.
8Market capitalisation₹3,59,423 crNeutralAt about ₹3.59 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
9Graham number vs price₹147.84 vs ₹286.95NeutralBenjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹147.84; the price was 94% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.

B. Growth

#PointReadingTagCommentary
10Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)+4.7%NeutralRevenue for FY26 was ₹78,868 crore, +4.7% versus FY25.
11Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)-5.0%BearishThe Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹17,825 crore of revenue, -5.0% on the same quarter a year earlier.
12Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)-40.0%CautionFY26 net profit was ₹21,018 crore, -40.0% on FY25's ₹35,052 crore. Note: the Mar 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹15,391 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
13Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)-72.4%CautionQuarterly profit was ₹5,470 crore versus ₹19,808 crore a year earlier (-72.4%). Note: the Mar 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹15,391 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
14Revenue CAGR (3 years)3.6%BearishRevenue compounded at 3.6% a year from FY23 to FY26.
15Profit CAGR (3 years)2.6%CautionNet profit compounded at 2.6% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: the Mar 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹15,391 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
16Revenue CAGR (5 years)9.9%NeutralOver five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 9.9% a year.
17EPS growth FY26 (reported)-40.5%CautionReported EPS went from ₹27.77 to ₹16.51 (-40.5%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Note: the Mar 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹15,391 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.

C. Profitability

#PointReadingTagCommentary
18Operating margin FY2635%NeutralOperating profit (EBITDA) was 35% of sales in FY26 versus 34% in FY25.
19Operating margin trend (4 quarters)32% → 34% → 34% → 39%BullishQuarterly margins moved from 32% to 39% over the last four quarters — expanding.
20Net profit margin FY2626.6%Neutral₹26.6 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26.
21Return on equity FY2629.5%BullishFY26 profit was 29.5% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak.
22ROCE FY2639%BullishReturn on capital employed (debt + equity) was 39% in FY26.
23Return on assets FY2622.45%NeutralNet profit was 22.45% of total assets.
24Effective tax rate FY2625%NeutralThe company paid about 25% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%.
25Other income share of pre-tax profit9%NeutralNon-operating 'other income' of ₹2,523 crore made up 9% of pre-tax profit.

D. Balance sheet

#PointReadingTagCommentary
26Debt / equity0.03BullishBorrowings of ₹2,399 crore were 0.03× equity — very low leverage.
27Debt / EBITDA0.09×BullishDebt equalled 0.09 years of FY26 operating profit.
28Interest coverage330.8×BullishEarnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 330.8 times.
29Book value growth+3.5%NeutralShareholders' equity grew +3.5% from ₹70,030 crore to ₹72,507 crore in FY26.
30Capital work in progress₹1,602 cr (7% of fixed assets)NeutralProjects under construction (CWIP) were 7% of fixed assets — a modest pipeline.
31Working capital days47 daysNeutralWorking capital tied up equalled 47 days of sales (FY25: 45). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations.
32Cash conversion cycle164 daysNeutralIt took 164 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit.
33Debtor days18 (FY25 23)NeutralCustomers took 18 days on average to pay, versus 23 a year earlier.

E. Cash flow

#PointReadingTagCommentary
34Operating cash flow FY26₹18,464 crBullishThe business generated ₹18,464 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹17,627 crore in FY25.
35Free cash flow FY26₹16,332 crBullishAfter capital spending, free cash flow was ₹16,332 crore.
36Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)0.88×NeutralOperating cash flow was 0.88× reported profit — reasonable cash backing.
37Free-cash-flow yield4.5%BullishFY26 free cash flow was 4.5% of the snapshot market cap.
38Free cash flow — 3-year total₹45,580 crBullishFree cash flow over FY24–FY26 added up to ₹45,580 crore.
39Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)₹2,132 crNeutralImplied capital expenditure was about ₹2,132 crore, 2.7% of sales.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#PointReadingTagCommentary
40Dividend payout ratio FY2688%NeutralThe company paid out about 88% of FY26 profit as dividends.
41Dividend consistency (3 years)84% / 52% / 88%BullishPayout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year.
42Share capital change (FY25→FY26)+0.2%NeutralPaid-up equity capital changed +0.2% (₹1,251 cr → ₹1,253 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution.

G. Ownership

#PointReadingTagCommentary
43Promoter holdingNo promoter (widely held)NeutralThe company has no identified promoter group — ownership is spread among institutions and the public.
44Foreign institutional holding34.83% (-5.04 pts YoY)BearishFIIs held 34.83% at Mar 2026, down from 39.87% a year before.
45Domestic institutional holding49.15% (+3.96 pts YoY)BullishMutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 49.15%, up from 45.19%.
46Number of shareholders40.4 lakh (+10.8% YoY)NeutralThe shareholder count moved from 36.5 lakh to 40.4 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47Promoter pledgenone reportedNeutralNot applicable — no promoter group.

H. Quality & summary

#PointReadingTagCommentary
48Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)4/8BearishPassed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, operating margin improved, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: CFO > net profit, leverage fell, ROA improved, asset turnover improved.
49Automated screen flags4 strength(s) · 1 weakness(es)NeutralStrengths: Company is almost debt free; Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 5.67%; Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 35.2%; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 74.5%. Weaknesses: The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 9.87% over past five years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
50Fundamental summary13 bullish · 4 bearish · 27 neutral · 5 cautionBullishOn the numbers published by 30 Jun 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 17.1×, P/B 4.96×. This describes the data, not a recommendation.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 1 Apr – 30 Jun 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

What happened next (30 Jun 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)

Later news

Educational summary. On 30 Jun 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -10.8% against -6.0% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold ITC today.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 03 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

More case studies today

₹1,293.90close 30 Jun
Oil, gas, retail & telecomNSE: RELIANCEData as of 30 Jun 2026

Reliance Industries — 100-point case study

Technical
Fundamental

What happened next (3 months): -9.8% vs Nifty 50 -6.0%

Technical: negativeFundamental: positiveP/E 18.3×P/B 1.94×RSI 431Y -13.8%
₹797.95close 30 Jun
Private-sector bankNSE: HDFCBANKData as of 30 Jun 2026

HDFC Bank — 100-point case study

Technical
Fundamental

What happened next (3 months): -9.6% vs Nifty 50 -6.0%

Technical: positiveFundamental: positiveP/E 15.5×P/B 2.10×RSI 601Y -20.3%
₹1,375.20close 30 Jun
Private-sector bankNSE: ICICIBANKData as of 30 Jun 2026

ICICI Bank — 100-point case study

Technical
Fundamental

What happened next (3 months): -4.7% vs Nifty 50 -6.0%

Technical: positiveFundamental: positiveP/E 17.0×P/B 2.72×RSI 661Y -4.9%