Housing financeHistorical case study · data as of 23 Jul 2026 · published 26 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Aptus Value Housing Finance India — 100-point case study
How Aptus Value Housing Finance India looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 23 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Aptus is a housing finance company (a lender), so some points use lender metrics — NPAs, capital adequacy, AUM growth — from its results releases. NII and NIM were not stated in the sources we found and show as n/a.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 23 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.48%/day
Bullish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.48% a day — a short-term uptrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +9.1%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.32%/day) and the stock was +9.1% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -18.7%
Bearish
Compared with a year earlier the price was -18.7%. A weak year for the stock.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 275.57 / 30W 256.84
Bullish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 277.95→295.00; lows 259.10→274.85
Bullish
The two most recent swing points showed higher swing highs and higher swing lows — classic uptrend structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
29.0
Bullish
ADX at 29.0 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 28.9 / –DI 25.0
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
287.75 (-1.1%)
Bearish
Close of 284.70 was 1.1% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
273.23 (+4.2%)
Bullish
Close of 284.70 was 4.2% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
269.69 (+5.6%)
Bullish
Close of 284.70 was 5.6% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 293.77 / 21E 287.59
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 12 Jun 2026.
The 50-day average was 1.3% above the 200-day. The most recent signal was a golden cross on 16 Jul 2026.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+4.4% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 4.4% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
288 / 273 / 254 / 270
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
291.47 (-2.3%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 291.47; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
50.0
Neutral
RSI at 50.0 was in the neutral 45–55 zone.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 7.27 / signal 7.70
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
1.95 → -0.43
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.43 (bands 265.55–309.94)
Neutral
%B of 0.43 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 15.4% (48th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 48th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹8.81 (3.1% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹8.81, or 3.1% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
31.0% vs 1Y 32.6%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 31.0%, close to the one-year level of 32.6%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
270.56–305.66
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.17
Neutral
A beta of 1.17 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.71× / 5-day 0.77×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.71× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.77× — lighter than usual participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.80
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 1.80× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹34 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — moderately liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
281.12 / 273.30 / 257.21
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 281.12, 1.3% below the close, then 273.30, 257.21.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
293.80 / 309.00 / 322.55
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 293.80, 3.2% above the close, then 309.00, 322.55.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 289.52 | R1 304.18 | S1 270.03
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 289.52; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 282 | 38.2% 265 | 50.0% 251 | 61.8% 237
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month rise from 193.03 to 309.00, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 281.63.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 364.00 / L 193.03
Neutral
The close was 21.8% below the 52-week high and 47.5% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
1 open; latest gap-up 08 Apr at 203.82
Neutral
There was 1 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 08 Apr 2026, left an open level at 203.82 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
rising channel
Bullish
Rule-based pattern scan: rising channel — successive higher highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 259.10–309.00
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 259.10–309.00.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary red candle
Neutral
On 23 Jul the candle opened 293.00, ranged 283.00–294.40 and closed 284.70: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 243.46–265.99; Tenkan 294.57 / Kijun 284.05
Bullish
Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M +8.2% / 3M +11.2%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 11.2 points over three months and outperformed by 8.2 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M +12.3%
Bullish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 12.3 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
20 bullish · 6 bearish · 23 neutral · 0 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 281.12, resistance 293.80. This is a description of the chart on 23 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 23 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Jun 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 23 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
15.2×
Neutral
At ₹284.70 the market valued the company at about ₹14,293 crore, or 15.2× the ₹943 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
2.82×
Neutral
Market cap was 2.82× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹5,060 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Revenue (interest earned)
6.52×
Neutral
Market cap was 6.52× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹2,192 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
Profit / Book (earnings power)
18.6%
Neutral
Trailing profit was 18.6% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 2.82× for.
How to read: Information only.
5
Earnings yield
6.6%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹6.6 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
0.65
Bullish
P/E of 15.2 divided by 3-year profit growth of 23.3% a year gives a PEG of 0.65. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
1.58%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹4.5 a share, a 1.58% yield on the ₹284.70 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹14,293 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.14 lakh crore the company was a small-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹206.39 vs ₹284.70
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹206.39; the price was 38% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+25.3%
Bullish
Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹2,192 crore, +25.3% versus FY25.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
2 strength(s) · 2 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company has delivered good profit growth of 28.7% CAGR over last 5 years; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 30.2%. Weaknesses: Promoter holding is low: 23.9%; Promoter holding has decreased over last 3 years: -38.3%. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
19 bullish · 1 bearish · 29 neutral · 0 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 23 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 15.2×, P/B 2.82×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 23 Apr 2026 – 23 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
06 May 2026Aptus Value Housing Q4 profit jumps 26% to Rs 261 crore, announces Rs 2.50 dividend — Q4 FY26 consolidated net profit Rs 261 cr vs Rs 207 cr; revenue Rs 574 cr (+18.6%); second interim dividend Rs 2.50/share; board approved raising up to Rs 3,000 cr via NCDs. source
08 May 2026Aptus Value Housing Finance Q4 FY26 results: PAT Rs 261 crore — AUM Rs 13,107 cr (+21% YoY), record Q4 disbursements Rs 1,242 cr, FY26 spread 8.9%, GNPA up to 1.52% from 1.19%; dividend record date 15 May 2026. source
29 Jun 2026Aptus Value shares: Citi initiates 30-day catalyst watch, target hints at 31% upside — Citi (Buy, TP Rs 350) expects Q1 FY27 disbursement growth to rebound to ~34% YoY and AUM growth ~21.5%; stock rose ~3% intraday to Rs 273.25. source
07 Jul 2026Aptus Value Housing Finance sets date for first quarter results — Board meeting scheduled for July 31, 2026 to approve Q1 FY27 (Apr-Jun) unaudited results; trading window closed from July 1. source
What happened next (23 Jul 2026 → 23 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹284.70 to ₹196.47 by 23 Oct 2026 (-31.0%) while the Nifty 50 moved -5.3% — underperforming by 25.7 points.
Highest ₹288.40 on 31 Jul 2026; lowest ₹193.61 on 23 Oct 2026.
S1 281.12: broken on a closing basis on 24 Jul 2026.
S2 273.30: broken on a closing basis on 31 Jul 2026.
R1 293.80: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 309.00: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 31 Jul 2026.
31 Jul 2026Aptus reports 19% surge in Q1 net profit to Rs 261 crore — Q1 FY27 PAT Rs 261 cr (+19%); AUM Rs 13,648 cr (+21%); disbursements Rs 1,053 cr (+36%); GNPA rose to 1.70% from 1.50%, NNPA 1.30%. Stock fell ~5.8% that day. source
21 Aug 2026CARE Ratings reaffirms Aptus Value Housing Finance at CARE AA; Stable — CARE reaffirmed AA (Stable) on Rs 2,100 cr bank facilities and NCDs, and assigned AA (Stable) to proposed Rs 450 cr NCD VIII. source
03 Sep 2026Aptus Value Housing Finance plans analyst meeting on September 4 — Company to meet analysts/investors Sept 4; recap notes Q1 GNPA up to 1.7% on seasonal collection pressure, management phasing out sub-Rs 7 lakh loans, FY27 AUM growth guidance 22-24%. source
14 Oct 2026Down 24% in 3 months, Choice sees 48% upside in Aptus Value Housing Finance, initiates with Buy — Choice Institutional Equities initiates with Buy, TP Rs 330; flags GNPA rise to 1.7% and 30+ DPD of 6.87% as risks. source
Educational summary. On 23 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -31.0% against -5.3% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Aptus Value Housing Finance India today.
Method designed by our founder, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 26 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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