IT-enabled services (BPM)Historical case study · data as of 29 Jul 2026 · published 01 Nov 2026 (95 days later)
Firstsource Solutions — 100-point case study
How Firstsource Solutions looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 29 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 29 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.64%/day
Bullish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.64% a day — a short-term uptrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +38.5%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.22%/day) and the stock was +38.5% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -11.0%
Bearish
Compared with a year earlier the price was -11.0%. A weak year for the stock.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 258.00 / 30W 253.83
Bullish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 249.30→274.01; lows 225.10→227.20
Bullish
The two most recent swing points showed higher swing highs and higher swing lows — classic uptrend structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
21.5
Bullish
ADX at 21.5 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 41.2 / –DI 14.3
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
258.00 (+13.8%)
Bullish
Close of 293.58 was 13.8% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
254.60 (+15.3%)
Bullish
Close of 293.58 was 15.3% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
281.54 (+4.3%)
Bullish
Close of 293.58 was 4.3% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 267.06 / 21E 259.97
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 10 Jul 2026.
The 50-day average was 9.6% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+4.4% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 4.4% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
258 / 255 / 239 / 282
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
273.97 (+7.2%)
Bullish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 273.97; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
72.5
Caution
RSI at 72.5 was overbought (≥70) — strong momentum but stretched.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 6.50 / signal 4.42
Bullish
MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
1.07 → 2.09
Bullish
The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 1.17 (bands 231.40–284.60)
Caution
%B of 1.17 — close above the upper band, an overextended move.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 20.6% (56th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 56th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹11.12 (3.8% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹11.12, or 3.8% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
47.4% vs 1Y 44.9%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 47.4%, close to the one-year level of 44.9%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
237.15–283.61
Bullish
The close was above the upper channel — a strong trending push.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.32
Neutral
A beta of 1.32 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 12.51× / 5-day 2.77×
Neutral
The final session traded 12.51× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 2.77× — heavier than usual participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 5.58
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 5.58× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹110 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
260.00 / 251.10 / 234.66
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 260.00, 12.9% below the close, then 251.10, 234.66.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
324.00 / 334.08 / 345.40
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 324.00, 10.4% above the close, then 334.08, 345.40.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 273.59 | R1 318.49 | S1 248.69
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 273.59; the close was above it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 231 | 38.2% 249 | 50.0% 263 | 61.8% 277
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month fall from 324.00 to 202.00, the close was nearest the 61.8% retracement at 277.40.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 381.40 / L 202.00
Neutral
The close was 23.0% below the 52-week high and 45.3% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
1 open; latest gap-up 10 Jul at 245.45
Neutral
There was 1 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 10 Jul 2026, left an open level at 245.45 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
rising channel
Bullish
Rule-based pattern scan: rising channel — successive higher highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 228.70–274.01
Bullish
The close was breakout above the prior 20-day range of 228.70–274.01 — a range break.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Bullish marubozu-type candle
Bullish
On 29 Jul the candle opened 266.00, ranged 266.00–298.50 and closed 293.58: Bullish marubozu-type candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 245.28–249.97; Tenkan 274.80 / Kijun 262.85
Bullish
Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M +26.9% / 3M +37.4%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 37.4 points over three months and outperformed by 26.9 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M -1.8%
Neutral
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 1.8 points behind the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
28 bullish · 2 bearish · 15 neutral · 4 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 260.00, resistance 324.00. This is a description of the chart on 29 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 29 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Jun 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 29 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
30.8×
Neutral
At ₹293.58 the market valued the company at about ₹20,750 crore, or 30.8× the ₹674 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
4.73×
Neutral
Market cap was 4.73× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹4,385 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
2.17×
Neutral
The company was valued at 2.17× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹9,556 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
15.2×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹2,922 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 15.2× trailing operating profit of ₹1,556 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
3.2%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹3.2 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
3.26
Caution
P/E of 30.8 divided by 3-year profit growth of 9.5% a year gives a PEG of 3.26. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-97 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
1.87%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹5.5 a share, a 1.87% yield on the ₹293.58 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹20,750 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.21 lakh crore the company was a small-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹115.38 vs ₹293.58
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹115.38; the price was 154% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+19.7%
Bullish
Revenue for FY26 was ₹9,556 crore, +19.7% versus FY25.
FY26 net profit was ₹674 crore, +13.5% on FY25's ₹594 crore. Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-97 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%. Caution if a one-off item distorted the figure.
13
Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)
+27.3%
Caution
Quarterly profit was ₹205 crore versus ₹161 crore a year earlier (+27.3%). Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-97 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
Revenue compounded at 16.6% a year from FY23 to FY26.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15
Profit CAGR (3 years)
9.5%
Neutral
Net profit compounded at 9.5% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-97 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
13.5%
Bullish
Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 13.5% a year.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17
EPS growth FY26 (reported)
+13.4%
Caution
Reported EPS went from ₹8.41 to ₹9.54 (+13.4%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-97 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
1 strength(s) · 0 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 50.4%. No weaknesses flagged. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
12 bullish · 1 bearish · 32 neutral · 4 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 29 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 30.8×, P/B 4.73×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 29 Apr 2026 – 29 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
06 May 2026Firstsource Solutions reports Q4 and FY26 results; FY26 revenue crosses US$1 billion — Q4 FY26 revenue was Rs 25,835 million (+19.5% YoY) with EBIT margin 12.2% and PAT Rs 2,052 million; FY26 revenue rose 19.7% to Rs 95,564 million with reported PAT Rs 6,744 million. FY27 guidance: 10-13% constant-currency revenue growth and 12.25-12.75% EBIT margin. source
08 May 2026Firstsource Solutions share price jumps 17% after Q4 results and FY27 guidance — The stock rose about 17% to Rs 275.25 on Friday, May 8, 2026, which DSIJ attributed to the Q4 FY26/FY26 results and FY27 growth guidance; quarterly profit was hit by exceptional expenses. source
14 Jul 2026Firstsource files FY26 annual report and notice of 25th AGM — The FY2025-26 annual report, filed with the AGM notice, highlights 17 large deal wins, the Pastdue Credit Solutions and TeleMedik acquisitions, and the Rs 5.50 interim dividend. It puts headcount at 36,205 as of March 2026. source
29 Jul 2026Firstsource Solutions surges about 12% on heavy volumes — The stock rose about 11.7% intraday on July 29, 2026, with about 2.1 crore shares traded worth over Rs 600 crore. No specific company announcement was cited as the trigger. source
What happened next (29 Jul 2026 → 30 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹293.58 to ₹292.90 by 30 Oct 2026 (-0.2%) while the Nifty 50 moved -4.9% — outperforming by 4.7 points.
Highest ₹341.90 on 05 Aug 2026; lowest ₹246.65 on 11 Sep 2026.
S1 260.00: broken on a closing basis on 07 Sep 2026.
S2 251.10: broken on a closing basis on 11 Sep 2026.
R1 324.00: cleared on a closing basis on 03 Aug 2026.
R2 334.08: cleared on a closing basis on 05 Aug 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 07 Aug 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 06 Aug 2026): revenue ₹2,725 crore (+22.9% YoY), net profit ₹166 crore (-1.8% YoY), operating margin 17% vs 16% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
01 Aug 2026Firstsource Solutions gains 19% in the week of July 27-31 — The stock closed the week at about Rs 302, up 19% against a 2.4% rise in the Sensex. The biggest single-day gain was 11.8% on July 29. source
06 Aug 2026Firstsource Q1 FY27: revenue up 22.9% YoY, profit falls 19% QoQ; shares slump over 13% — Q1 FY27 revenue was Rs 27,249 million (+22.9% YoY) and EBIT margin was 12.4%. Reported PAT was Rs 1,659 million after Rs 563 million of exceptional charges, and FY27 guidance was reiterated. The stock closed down about 13.7% on the day. source
30 Sep 2026Firstsource Solutions shares jump up to 9% intraday on heavy volume — The stock rose as much as 8.8% intraday to Rs 270.70 after five straight losing sessions, on about twice its normal volume. No fresh company filing was cited, and the move came amid strength in IT stocks. source
29 Oct 2026Firstsource Q2 FY27: revenue up 22.2% to Rs 28,256 million, PAT up 29.7%; guidance lower end raised — Q2 FY27 revenue was Rs 28,256 million (+22.2% YoY), EBIT margin was 12.5% and PAT was Rs 2,328 million. FY27 constant-currency revenue growth guidance was narrowed to 10.5-13%. source
Educational summary. On 29 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -0.2% against -4.9% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Firstsource Solutions today.
Method designed by our founder, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 01 Nov 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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