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Telecom equipment & optical fibre Historical case study · data as of 30 Jul 2026 · published 02 Nov 2026 (95 days later)

HFCL — 100-point case study

How HFCL looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 30 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: HFCL · BSE: 500183
Close on 30 Jul 2026	₹184.69
Market cap then	₹28,304 crore
Valuation	P/E 86.0× · P/B 5.79×
Momentum	RSI (14) 39 · 1-year return +139.9%
Next 3 months	+25.2% vs Nifty 50 -5.2% (to 30 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

9 bullish · 21 neutral · 4 caution · 15 bearish — the picture leaned negative.

Fundamental — 50 points

8 bullish · 29 neutral · 2 caution · 10 bearish — the picture was mixed.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 30 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope -0.80%/day	Bearish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.80% a day — a short-term downtrend. Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return +72.4%	Bullish	The 100-session trend line was up (+1.28%/day) and the stock was +72.4% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish. Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return +139.9%	Bullish	Compared with a year earlier the price was +139.9%. A strong positive year. Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 199.01 / 30W 124.06	Neutral	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages. Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 229.50→229.40; lows 134.93→160.66	Neutral	The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure. Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	26.2	Bearish	ADX at 26.2 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction. Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 22.4 / –DI 30.8	Bearish	–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement. Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	210.36 (-12.2%)	Bearish	Close of 184.69 was 12.2% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	195.44 (-5.5%)	Bearish	Close of 184.69 was 5.5% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	107.92 (+71.1%)	Bullish	Close of 184.69 was 71.1% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 198.09 / 21E 203.08	Bearish	The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 27 Jul 2026. Bullish 9-day above 21-day · Bearish 9-day below 21-day · No neutral zone.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	last golden cross 20 Apr 2026	Bullish	The 50-day average was 81.1% above the 200-day. The most recent signal was a golden cross on 20 Apr 2026. Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13	50-day SMA slope	+20.5% in 20 sessions	Bullish	The 50-day average rose 20.5% over the past month — rising. Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14	MA ribbon alignment	210 / 195 / 146 / 108	Bullish	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bullish (20 > 50 > 100 > 200). Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	209.17 (-11.7%)	Bearish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 209.17; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water. Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	39.1	Bearish	RSI at 39.1 reflected soft, below-average momentum. Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	bearish divergence	Caution	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: bearish divergence: price made a higher high but RSI made a lower high. Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD -1.41 / signal 3.70	Bearish	MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative. Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	-3.74 → -5.11	Bearish	The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening. Bullish histogram rising (momentum improving) · Bearish histogram falling (momentum weakening) · No neutral zone.
20	MACD vs zero line	-1.41	Bearish	MACD below zero means the 12-day EMA was below the 26-day EMA — a negative momentum regime. Bullish MACD above zero · Bearish MACD below zero · No neutral zone.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 15.1 / %D 11.4	Caution	Slow stochastic at 15.1 was in oversold territory (<20). Bullish between 20 and 80 with %K above %D · Bearish between 20 and 80 with %K below %D · Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
22	Williams %R (14)	-92.5	Caution	%R of -92.5 put the close near the bottom of its 14-day range. How to read: Caution above –20 (near the top) or below –80 (near the bottom). Neutral in the middle. This point is never tagged Bullish or Bearish.
23	CCI (20)	-161	Bearish	CCI at -161 signalled an unusually strong downward deviation (<–100). Bullish above +100 (unusually strong upward move) · Bearish below –100 (unusually strong downward move) · Neutral within ±100.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	-17.7%	Bearish	Price changed -17.7% over ten sessions. Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B -0.01 (bands 185.20–235.52)	Caution	%B of -0.01 — close below the lower band, an overextended drop. How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 23.9% (50th pct of 6M)	Neutral	Band width was at the 50th percentile of the last six months, a normal level. How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27	ATR (14)	₹11.19 (6.1% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹11.19, or 6.1% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect. How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	54.7% vs 1Y 47.7%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 54.7%, close to the one-year level of 47.7%. How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	180.17–226.06	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout. Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	1.47	Neutral	A beta of 1.47 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day. How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 0.83× / 5-day 1.28×	Neutral	The final session traded 0.83× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.28× — heavier than usual participation. How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 1.01	Neutral	Average volume on up days was 1.01× that on down days — balanced. Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV falling	Bearish	OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move. Bullish OBV rising · Bearish OBV falling · No neutral zone.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	falling (20d)	Bearish	The A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume. Bullish A/D line rising · Bearish A/D line falling · No neutral zone.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	-0.04	Neutral	CMF at -0.04 indicated roughly balanced money flow. Bullish above +0.05 (net inflows) · Bearish below –0.05 (net outflows) · Neutral between –0.05 and +0.05.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	45.3	Neutral	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 45.3. Bullish MFI 55–80 · Bearish MFI 20–45 · Neutral 45–55. Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹528 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹528 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — highly liquid. How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	160.66 / 134.93 / 74.50	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 160.66, 15.0% below the close, then 134.93, 74.50. How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	208.98 / 220.03 / 228.97	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 208.98, 13.2% above the close, then 220.03, 228.97. How to read: Information only.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 198.41 \| R1 215.78 \| S1 167.33	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 198.41; the close was below it. How to read: Information only.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 189 \| 38.2% 165 \| 50.0% 145 \| 61.8% 125	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month rise from 59.82 to 229.50, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 189.46. How to read: Information only.
42	52-week high / low	H 229.50 / L 59.82	Neutral	The close was 19.5% below the 52-week high and 208.7% above the 52-week low. Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	6 open; latest gap-down 24 Jul at 207.01	Neutral	There were 6 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 24 Jul 2026, left an open level at 207.01 that price had not revisited. How to read: Information only.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	pullback inside a larger uptrend	Neutral	Rule-based pattern scan: pullback inside a larger uptrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.) Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 181.05–229.50	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 181.05–229.50. Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary red candle	Neutral	On 30 Jul the candle opened 193.00, ranged 183.90–195.53 and closed 184.69: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own. Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 147.37–183.94; Tenkan 204.53 / Kijun 205.28	Bullish	Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup. Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M -14.2% / 3M +71.9%	Bullish	The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 71.9 points over three months and underperformed by 14.2 points over one month. Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M +200.0%	Bullish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 200.0 points ahead of the Nifty 50. Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50	Technical summary	9 bullish · 15 bearish · 21 neutral · 4 caution	Bearish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 160.66, resistance 208.98. This is a description of the chart on 30 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 30 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Jun 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 30 Jul 2026 close.

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	86.0×	Neutral	At ₹184.69 the market valued the company at about ₹28,304 crore, or 86.0× the ₹329 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth. How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2	Price / Book	5.79×	Neutral	Market cap was 5.79× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹4,891 crore. How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3	Price / Sales	5.72×	Neutral	The company was valued at 5.72× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹4,949 crore. How to read: Information only.
4	EV / EBITDA (approx.)	39.7×	Neutral	Enterprise value (market cap + ₹1,896 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 39.7× trailing operating profit of ₹760 crore. How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5	Earnings yield	1.2%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹1.2 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds. How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	75.47	Bearish	P/E of 86.0 divided by 3-year profit growth of 1.1% a year gives a PEG of 75.47. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	0.05%	Neutral	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹0.1 a share, a 0.05% yield on the ₹184.69 price. Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8	Market capitalisation	₹28,304 cr	Neutral	At about ₹0.28 lakh crore the company was a small-cap. How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9	Graham number vs price	₹39.26 vs ₹184.69	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹39.26; the price was 370% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number. Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+21.7%	Bullish	Revenue for FY26 was ₹4,949 crore, +21.7% versus FY25. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% (revenue fell) · Neutral 0–10%.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+127.7%	Bullish	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹1,824 crore of revenue, +127.7% on the same quarter a year earlier. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+90.2%	Bullish	FY26 net profit was ₹329 crore, +90.2% on FY25's ₹173 crore. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%. Caution if a one-off item distorted the figure.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	n/a	Neutral	Quarterly profit was ₹184 crore versus ₹-83 crore a year earlier (n/a). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	1.4%	Bearish	Revenue compounded at 1.4% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	1.1%	Bearish	Net profit compounded at 1.1% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	2.3%	Bearish	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 2.3% a year. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+65.9%	Bullish	Reported EPS went from ₹1.23 to ₹2.04 (+65.9%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Operating margin FY26	15%	Neutral	Operating profit (EBITDA) was 15% of sales in FY26 versus 11% in FY25. How to read: Information only — normal margins differ a lot by industry.
19	Operating margin trend (4 quarters)	3% → 18% → 19% → 17%	Bullish	Quarterly margins moved from 3% to 17% over the last four quarters — expanding. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral when broadly stable.
20	Net profit margin FY26	6.6%	Neutral	₹6.6 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26. How to read: Information only.
21	Return on equity FY26	7.3%	Bearish	FY26 profit was 7.3% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak. Bullish above 18% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–18%. Around 15% or more is generally considered good.
22	ROCE FY26	11%	Neutral	Return on capital employed (debt + equity) was 11% in FY26. Bullish above 20% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–20%.
23	Return on assets FY26	3.71%	Neutral	Net profit was 3.71% of total assets. Bullish banks only: 1.5% or more · Bearish banks only: below 1% · Information only for non-banks.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	23%	Neutral	The company paid about 23% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%. How to read: Information only. India’s base corporate rate is about 25%.
25	Other income share of pre-tax profit	15%	Neutral	Non-operating 'other income' of ₹63 crore made up 15% of pre-tax profit. How to read: Caution above 25% (headline profit leans on non-core income). Neutral otherwise.

D. Balance sheet

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Debt / equity	0.39	Neutral	Borrowings of ₹1,896 crore were 0.39× equity — moderate leverage. Bullish below 0.3 (very low leverage) · Bearish above 1 (high leverage) · Neutral 0.3–1.
27	Debt / EBITDA	2.48×	Neutral	Debt equalled 2.48 years of FY26 operating profit. Bullish below 1× · Bearish above 3× · Neutral 1–3×.
28	Interest coverage	2.8×	Bearish	Earnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 2.8 times. Bullish above 8× · Bearish below 3× · Neutral 3–8×, or not meaningful when interest is negligible.
29	Book value growth	+19.9%	Bullish	Shareholders' equity grew +19.9% from ₹4,079 crore to ₹4,891 crore in FY26. Bullish above 10% (banks: above 12%) · Bearish below 0% (non-banks only) · Neutral otherwise.
30	Capital work in progress	₹486 cr (40% of fixed assets)	Neutral	Projects under construction (CWIP) were 40% of fixed assets — a big expansion pipeline not yet earning. How to read: Information only. Above 20% means a big expansion pipeline that is not yet earning.
31	Working capital days	208 days	Neutral	Working capital tied up equalled 208 days of sales (FY25: 179). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations. How to read: Information only. Lower is generally more efficient; negative means suppliers or customers fund the business.
32	Cash conversion cycle	218 days	Neutral	It took 218 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit. How to read: Information only. Shorter is generally better.
33	Debtor days	163 (FY25 170)	Neutral	Customers took 163 days on average to pay, versus 170 a year earlier. How to read: Caution when debtor days rose more than 20% in a year (collections stretching). Neutral otherwise.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹-378 cr	Bearish	The business generated ₹-378 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹396 crore in FY25. Bullish positive and higher than the year before · Bearish negative · Neutral when positive but lower. Information only for banks.
35	Free cash flow FY26	n/a	Neutral	Free cash flow line not available on source page. Bullish positive · Bearish negative · Neutral when not available.
36	Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)	-1.15×	Caution	Operating cash flow was -1.15× reported profit — cash lagged profits; worth watching. Bullish above 1× (profits well backed by cash) · Caution below 0.7×. Neutral 0.7–1×.
37	Free-cash-flow yield	n/a	Neutral	Not available. Bullish above 4% · Neutral at 4% or less.
38	Free cash flow — 3-year total	n/a	Neutral	Not available. Bullish positive total · Bearish negative total · Neutral when not available.
39	Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)	n/a	Neutral	Not available. How to read: Information only.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	10%	Neutral	The company paid out about 10% of FY26 profit as dividends. How to read: Information only. High payout suits mature businesses; growing firms often keep more.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	9% / 8% / 10%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year. Bullish paid every year · Neutral when irregular. Never tagged Bearish.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+6.2%	Caution	Paid-up equity capital changed +6.2% (₹144 cr → ₹153 cr). A fall indicates a buyback; a rise indicates new shares were issued. Bullish fell 1% or more (a buyback) · Caution when it rose 1% or more (new shares issued). Neutral when unchanged, or for a bonus/split.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	28.29% (-3.29 pts YoY)	Bearish	Promoters owned 28.29% at Jun 2026 versus 31.58% a year earlier. Bearish fell more than 1 percentage point in a year · Neutral otherwise. Never tagged Bullish.
44	Foreign institutional holding	15.74% (+7.99 pts YoY)	Bullish	FIIs held 15.74% at Jun 2026, up from 7.75% a year before. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
45	Domestic institutional holding	10.92% (-3.12 pts YoY)	Bearish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 10.92%, down from 14.04%. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
46	Number of shareholders	7.3 lakh (-14.7% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 8.6 lakh to 7.3 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest. How to read: Information only — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares. How to read: Information only. Any sizeable pledge is a risk to note.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	4/8	Bearish	Passed: positive profit, operating margin improved, ROA improved, asset turnover improved. Failed: positive operating cash flow, CFO > net profit, leverage fell, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49	Automated screen flags	1 strength(s) · 6 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Company is expected to give good quarter. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 6.27 times its book value; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 2.27% over past five years; Company has a low return on equity of 6.82% over last 3 years; Dividend payout has been low at 8.89% of profits over last 3 years; Company has high debtors of 163 days; Promoter holding has decreased over last 3 years: -9.55%. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.) How to read: Information only.
50	Fundamental summary	8 bullish · 10 bearish · 29 neutral · 2 caution	Neutral	On the numbers published by 30 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture was mixed. Valuation: P/E 86.0×, P/B 5.79×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 30 Apr 2026 – 30 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

30 Apr 2026 HFCL shares gain over 10% on record Q4 FY26 results, order book at Rs 21,206 crore — HFCL reported FY26 revenue of Rs 4,949 crore (up ~22%) and PAT of Rs 329 crore (up ~90%); Q4 revenue was Rs 1,824 crore versus Rs 800 crore a year earlier. Export revenue was Rs 2,047 crore (41% of revenue) and the order book reached a record Rs 21,206 crore. source
11 May 2026 HFCL wins export orders worth about Rs 184 crore for optical fiber cables — HFCL disclosed two export orders totalling about USD 19.32 million (Rs 183.95 crore) for customised optical fiber cables, to be executed by August 2026. source
27 May 2026 HFCL hits fresh 52-week high after Rs 135 crore RailTel order — Shares rose up to 9% to Rs 176.50 intraday after HFCL received a Rs 135.09 crore annual maintenance order from RailTel for a secure defence data-centre network; the stock was up about 154% in calendar 2026 at that point. The board had recommended a Rs 0.20 per share dividend for FY26. source
10 Jul 2026 HFCL secures Rs 2,666 crore BharatNet Phase III order from RVNL — HFCL won a contract of about Rs 2,666.09 crore from Rail Vikas Nigam for BharatNet Phase III (Uttar Pradesh West), covering supply, installation, OFC network build and 10 years of operations and maintenance. source
22 Jul 2026 HFCL Q1 FY27: net profit Rs 246 crore, revenue up 120% — For Apr-Jun 2026 HFCL reported revenue of Rs 1,914.98 crore (up 119.85% YoY) and consolidated PAT of Rs 245.64 crore versus a loss of Rs 29.3 crore a year earlier. EBITDA margin was 23.25%, the order book was about Rs 26,665 crore, and FY27 revenue growth guidance was raised to 40% from 20%. source

What happened next (30 Jul 2026 → 30 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹184.69 to ₹231.29 by 30 Oct 2026 (+25.2%) while the Nifty 50 moved -5.2% — outperforming by 30.4 points.
Highest ₹282.25 on 21 Oct 2026; lowest ₹191.01 on 31 Jul 2026.
S1 160.66: held on a closing basis.
S2 134.93: held on a closing basis.
R1 208.98: cleared on a closing basis on 05 Aug 2026.
R2 220.03: cleared on a closing basis on 12 Aug 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 22 Jul 2026): revenue ₹1,915 crore (+119.9% YoY), net profit ₹246 crore (n/m — loss or no profit a year earlier YoY), operating margin 22% vs 3% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).

Later news

08 Sep 2026 HFCL shares rise for third straight session after annual report — Shares gained as much as 16% over three sessions, touching Rs 255.15 on NSE, after the annual report detailed FY26 results, an order book of Rs 26,665 crore as of June 30, 2026, and planned optical fibre and cable capacity expansion plus a defence facility in Andhra Pradesh. source
11 Sep 2026 HFCL signs USD 244 million global OFC supply agreement; schedules investor meetings — HFCL signed a three-year supply agreement worth about USD 244 million (Rs 2,329 crore) with a multinational for high-fibre-count optical fiber cables (dated September 1, 2026), and scheduled analyst/investor meetings on September 18, 23 and 29. A final dividend of Rs 0.20 per share had a record date of September 22, 2026. source
19 Oct 2026 HFCL Q2 FY27 net profit rises over fivefold to Rs 394 crore — For Jul-Sep 2026 HFCL reported consolidated revenue of Rs 2,541.79 crore (up 143.62% YoY) and net profit of Rs 394.22 crore versus Rs 71.92 crore a year earlier; EBITDA margin was 25.89%. The order book stood at Rs 28,911 crore and FY27 revenue growth guidance was set at at least 80%. source

Educational summary. On 30 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture was mixed. Over the next three months the stock moved +25.2% against -5.2% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold HFCL today.

Method designed by our founder, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 02 Nov 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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