Private-sector bank (govt/LIC-owned)Historical case study · data as of 31 Jul 2026 · published 03 Nov 2026 (95 days later)
IDBI Bank — 100-point case study
How IDBI Bank looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 31 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: IDBI Bank is majority-owned by the Government of India and LIC, and its strategic sale was a major price driver in this period. Financial tables are Screener consolidated; bank metrics (NIM, NPAs, CASA, capital adequacy) are the bank's reported standalone figures, so profit numbers differ slightly between the two.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 31 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.10%/day
Bullish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.10% a day — a short-term uptrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +10.4%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.07%/day) and the stock was +10.4% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -9.6%
Neutral
Compared with a year earlier the price was -9.6%. Little net progress over twelve months.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 81.41 / 30W 86.40
Neutral
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 92.25→89.94; lows 80.17→82.66
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
34.7
Bullish
ADX at 34.7 shows a strong trend in force. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 23.1 / –DI 12.0
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
84.59 (-1.0%)
Bearish
Close of 83.75 was 1.0% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
80.88 (+3.5%)
Bullish
Close of 83.75 was 3.5% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
90.27 (-7.2%)
Bearish
Close of 83.75 was 7.2% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 84.58 / 21E 84.26
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 12 Jun 2026.
The 50-day average was 10.4% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+5.5% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 5.5% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
85 / 81 / 79 / 90
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
85.23 (-1.7%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 85.23; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
49.9
Neutral
RSI at 49.9 was in the neutral 45–55 zone.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 0.76 / signal 1.22
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-0.33 → -0.46
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.37 (bands 81.40–87.78)
Neutral
%B of 0.37 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 7.5% (7th pct of 6M)
Caution
Band width was at the 7th percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown).
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹2.60 (3.1% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹2.60, or 3.1% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
29.9% vs 1Y 46.7%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 29.9%, below the one-year level of 46.7%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
79.47–89.18
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.53
Neutral
A beta of 1.53 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.33× / 5-day 0.60×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.33× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.60× — lighter than usual participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.52
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 1.52× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price fell — volume diverged from price.
About ₹107 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
82.66 / 80.54 / 73.76
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 82.66, 1.3% below the close, then 80.54, 73.76.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
87.44 / 89.94 / 92.25
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 87.44, 4.4% above the close, then 89.94, 92.25.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 84.62 | R1 89.07 | S1 79.30
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 84.62; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 74 | 38.2% 83 | 50.0% 89 | 61.8% 96
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month fall from 117.55 to 61.01, the close was nearest the 38.2% retracement at 82.61.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 118.38 / L 61.01
Neutral
The close was 29.3% below the 52-week high and 37.3% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
2 open; latest gap-up 15 Jun at 75.62
Neutral
There were 2 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 15 Jun 2026, left an open level at 75.62 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
rising channel
Bullish
Rule-based pattern scan: rising channel — successive higher highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 80.17–89.94
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 80.17–89.94.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary red candle
Neutral
On 31 Jul the candle opened 84.50, ranged 83.60–84.74 and closed 83.75: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 80.22–81.93; Tenkan 85.05 / Kijun 85.06
Bullish
Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -1.6% / 3M +8.8%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 8.8 points over three months and underperformed by 1.6 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty Bank
3M +6.0%
Bullish
Against its sector index (Nifty Bank) the stock was 6.0 points ahead over three months.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
15 bullish · 10 bearish · 22 neutral · 2 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 82.66, resistance 87.44. This is a description of the chart on 31 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 31 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Jun 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 31 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
9.8×
Neutral
At ₹83.75 the market valued the company at about ₹90,073 crore, or 9.8× the ₹9,237 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
1.31×
Neutral
Market cap was 1.31× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹68,564 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Revenue (interest earned)
3.10×
Neutral
Market cap was 3.10× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹29,020 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
Profit / Book (earnings power)
13.5%
Neutral
Trailing profit was 13.5% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 1.31× for.
How to read: Information only.
5
Earnings yield
10.3%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹10.3 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
0.28
Bullish
P/E of 9.8 divided by 3-year profit growth of 35.3% a year gives a PEG of 0.28. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
n/a
Neutral
Dividend history in our data window was not available.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹90,073 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.90 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹110.99 vs ₹83.75
Bullish
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹110.99; the price was 25% below it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+0.4%
Neutral
Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹29,020 crore, +0.4% versus FY25.
NIM — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was 4.15% in Jan–Mar 2026 (as reported). Above ~3.5% is strong for an Indian bank.
Bullish 3.5% or more · Bearish below 3.0% · Neutral 3.0–3.5%.
19
Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)
+17.0%
Bullish
Core interest income after interest expense was ₹3,851 crore, +17.0% year on year (standalone, as reported).
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
2 strength(s) · 5 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Stock is trading at 1.19 times its book value; Company has delivered good profit growth of 43.5% CAGR over last 5 years. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 7.78% over past five years; Company has a low return on equity of 13.2% over last 3 years; Contingent liabilities of Rs.2,89,480 Cr; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
15 bullish · 2 bearish · 32 neutral · 0 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 31 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 9.8×, P/B 1.31×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 01 May 2026 – 31 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
19 May 2026India weighs lower reserve price to revive IDBI Bank stake sale — After the privatisation attempt stalled in March, officials were reported to be considering a reserve price cut of up to 20% and reopening the process with earlier bidders including Fairfax Financial. source
18 Jun 2026IDBI Bank shares fall over 5% a day after a 17% jump — Shares rose about 17% on June 17 on stake-sale hopes amid reports the government sought fresh financial bids, then fell over 5% on June 18 after the bank said it had no undisclosed price-sensitive information. source
02 Jul 2026Government targets Rs 50,000-55,000 crore from IDBI Bank strategic sale in FY27 — The government and LIC are offering a combined 60.72% stake; Fairfax India reportedly submitted a revised all-cash bid of about Rs 77 per share on June 25, 2026. source
14 Jul 2026IDBI Bank shares rise about 5% on report of revised bids — Shares rose after a report that the government received revised bids from Fairfax Financial and Emirates NBD, with the sale expected to conclude within a month. source
18 Jul 2026IDBI Bank Q1 FY27 net profit rises 5% to Rs 2,115 crore — NII rose 10% YoY to Rs 3,486 crore, NIM was 3.61%, gross NPA 2.30%, net NPA 0.16%, and net advances grew 22% YoY. source
What happened next (31 Jul 2026 → 02 Nov 2026)
Price went from ₹83.75 to ₹78.94 by 02 Nov 2026 (-5.7%) while the Nifty 50 moved -3.9% — underperforming by 1.9 points.
Highest ₹96.25 on 26 Aug 2026; lowest ₹75.70 on 26 Oct 2026.
S1 82.66: broken on a closing basis on 11 Aug 2026.
S2 80.54: broken on a closing basis on 21 Oct 2026.
R1 87.44: cleared on a closing basis on 24 Aug 2026.
R2 89.94: cleared on a closing basis on 26 Aug 2026.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and crossed above on 26 Aug 2026.
24 Aug 2026IDBI Bank shares surge up to 10% on Fairfax deal progress report — Shares rose as much as 10.5% on reports the government was nearing acceptance of Fairfax Financial's revised offer; regulatory clearances were still pending. source
08 Sep 2026No agreement reached with Fairfax on IDBI Bank valuation — The government and Fairfax had not agreed a price for the 60.72% stake; Fairfax's reported bid of about Rs 81 per share was below trading levels and shares fell 10.6%. source
15 Oct 2026Cabinet approves Fairfax stake purchase in IDBI Bank; shares fall on profit booking — The Cabinet approved Fairfax buying the stake for Rs 52,878 crore; shares fell about 6% after a 13% rise the previous day. The board was to consider Q2 FY27 results on October 17. source
21 Oct 2026IDBI Bank shares slip below Fairfax deal price after Q2 profit drop — Shares fell about 3% to below the Rs 81 per share deal price for the 60.72% stake; September-quarter net profit fell 39% YoY to Rs 2,205 crore from Rs 3,627 crore. source
Educational summary. On 31 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -5.7% against -3.9% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold IDBI Bank today.
Method designed by our founder, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 03 Nov 2026); index — Nifty 50, Nifty Bank via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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