Coal India — 100-point case study
What happened next (3 months): -4.2% vs Nifty 50 -7.3%
Every morning: the national and international news that moves Indian shares, explained by sector — and 10 new NSE/BSE stocks taken apart on 50 technical and 50 fundamental points, using data from 95 days ago, with what happened next.
What happened next (3 months): -4.2% vs Nifty 50 -7.3%
What happened next (3 months): -10.4% vs Nifty 50 -7.3%
What happened next (3 months): -4.6% vs Nifty 50 -7.3%
What happened next (3 months): +12.2% vs Nifty 50 -7.3%
What happened next (3 months): -6.5% vs Nifty 50 -7.3%
What happened next (3 months): +15.3% vs Nifty 50 -7.3%
What happened next (3 months): -6.5% vs Nifty 50 -7.3%
What happened next (3 months): -0.8% vs Nifty 50 -7.3%
What happened next (3 months): -9.4% vs Nifty 50 -7.3%
What happened next (3 months): -11.4% vs Nifty 50 -7.3%
Published 04 Oct 2026 · data as of 01 Jul 2026
Published 03 Oct 2026 · data as of 30 Jun 2026
The RBI MPC started its October meeting on 5 October, with the decision due on 7 October; the repo rate currently stands at 5.25%. Markets are widely anticipating a 25 basis point hike to 5.50%, against a backdrop of August CPI inflation at 4.82%, WPI inflation at 9.92% and fuel and power inflation at 22.93%. Crude oil above $100 a barrel and a rupee near 96 per dollar are also cited as pressures.
Why it matters: The repo rate feeds into loan and deposit rates across the economy, so a change affects borrowing costs for households and companies and the margins of lenders. Rate-sensitive areas such as housing and vehicle purchases tend to respond most directly to the cost of credit.
Iran's parliament speaker said the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until seven conditions based on the 'Islamabad memorandum' are met, after the US rejected an Iranian reopening proposal the previous week. The strait has been disrupted for more than seven months since the 28 February strikes; in peacetime about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas passes through it.
Why it matters: India imports most of its crude oil and much of its LNG, so a prolonged disruption keeps energy import costs, freight and insurance elevated. This feeds into fuel costs, the trade deficit and the rupee.
Brent crude rose 0.79% to $103.06 a barrel on Monday, 5 October, while WTI gained 0.50% to $91.57, after Yemen's Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and the Khurais area. At its Sunday meeting OPEC+ kept November production targets unchanged. Gulf producers are running about 5 million barrels per day below pre-war February levels because of disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters: Crude is India's largest import, so sustained prices above $100 raise input costs for fuel-intensive industries and add to inflation and pressure on the current account. Upstream producers' realisations generally move with crude prices.
The Nifty 50 fell 3.1% and the Sensex 2.7% in the week ended 3 October, extending their losing run to eight weeks, which the report calls the longest in 25 years. FIIs were net sellers for a seventh straight week, selling ₹34,966 crore of equities, while DIIs bought ₹33,455 crore. Rising US Treasury yields, West Asia tensions, crude above $100, a weak rupee and a 13% monsoon shortfall were listed as headwinds.
Why it matters: Persistent foreign selling puts pressure on large, heavily foreign-owned sectors, while domestic institutional buying, largely funded by mutual fund flows, partly offsets it. The balance between the two shapes broad market liquidity.
FPIs were net sellers of ₹35,860 crore of Indian equities in September, reversing net inflows of ₹29,630 crore in August and ₹20,200 crore in July. Withdrawals so far in 2026 total about ₹2.7 lakh crore, more than the ₹1.66 lakh crore for all of 2025. Foreign investors also withdrew money from debt through the Fully Accessible Route (₹10,431 crore), the Voluntary Retention Route (₹5,049 crore) and the general route (₹5,246 crore).
Why it matters: Foreign flows affect demand for large-cap shares, bond yields and the rupee at the same time. Analysts cited high US interest rates, crude prices and a shift of money towards other Asian markets as reasons.