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Aluminium and copper Historical case study · data as of 02 Jul 2026 · published 05 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

Hindalco Industries — 100-point case study

How Hindalco Industries looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 02 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: HINDALCO · BSE: 500440
Close on 02 Jul 2026	₹949.20
Market cap then	₹2,13,273 crore
Valuation	P/E 15.9× · P/B 1.56×
Momentum	RSI (14) 34 · 1-year return +35.9%
Next 3 months	-0.8% vs Nifty 50 -7.3% (to 01 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

9 bullish · 22 neutral · 2 caution · 16 bearish — the picture leaned negative.

Fundamental — 50 points

6 bullish · 36 neutral · 3 caution · 4 bearish — the picture was mixed.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Data note: Prices from Yahoo Finance except mid-Jul to late-Aug 2025 from equitypandit.com (matched Yahoo on overlapping dates). Consolidated figures include Novelis (USA).

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 02 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope -0.78%/day	Bearish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.78% a day — a short-term downtrend. Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return +9.5%	Bullish	The 100-session trend line was up (+0.16%/day) and the stock was +9.5% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish. Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return +35.9%	Bullish	Compared with a year earlier the price was +35.9%. A strong positive year. Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 1,041.24 / 30W 966.04	Neutral	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages. Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 1,080.00→1,176.00; lows 1,022.10→970.00	Neutral	The two most recent swing points showed a higher high but a lower low — mixed structure. Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	27.2	Bearish	ADX at 27.2 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction. Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 14.2 / –DI 31.4	Bearish	–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement. Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	1,010.26 (-6.0%)	Bearish	Close of 949.20 was 6.0% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	1,049.03 (-9.5%)	Bearish	Close of 949.20 was 9.5% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	911.17 (+4.2%)	Bullish	Close of 949.20 was 4.2% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 969.64 / 21E 1,003.13	Bearish	The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 11 Jun 2026. Bullish 9-day above 21-day · Bearish 9-day below 21-day · No neutral zone.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bullish	The 50-day average was 15.1% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window. Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13	50-day SMA slope	+2.9% in 20 sessions	Bullish	The 50-day average rose 2.9% over the past month — rising. Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14	MA ribbon alignment	1,010 / 1,049 / 993 / 911	Neutral	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range. Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	947.90 (+0.1%)	Bullish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 947.90; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit. Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	34.0	Bearish	RSI at 34.0 reflected soft, below-average momentum. Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	none	Neutral	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price. Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD -31.04 / signal -23.30	Bearish	MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative. Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	-10.69 → -7.74	Bullish	The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving. Bullish histogram rising (momentum improving) · Bearish histogram falling (momentum weakening) · No neutral zone.
20	MACD vs zero line	-31.04	Bearish	MACD below zero means the 12-day EMA was below the 26-day EMA — a negative momentum regime. Bullish MACD above zero · Bearish MACD below zero · No neutral zone.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 6.4 / %D 6.3	Caution	Slow stochastic at 6.4 was in oversold territory (<20). Bullish between 20 and 80 with %K above %D · Bearish between 20 and 80 with %K below %D · Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
22	Williams %R (14)	-89.5	Caution	%R of -89.5 put the close near the bottom of its 14-day range. How to read: Caution above –20 (near the top) or below –80 (near the bottom). Neutral in the middle. This point is never tagged Bullish or Bearish.
23	CCI (20)	-101	Bearish	CCI at -101 signalled an unusually strong downward deviation (<–100). Bullish above +100 (unusually strong upward move) · Bearish below –100 (unusually strong downward move) · Neutral within ±100.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	-5.8%	Bearish	Price changed -5.8% over ten sessions. Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.20 (bands 909.86–1,110.67)	Neutral	%B of 0.20 — inside the bands, lower half. How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 19.9% (83rd pct of 6M)	Neutral	Band width was at the 83rd percentile of the last six months, a normal level. How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27	ATR (14)	₹27.61 (2.9% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹27.61, or 2.9% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect. How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	30.6% vs 1Y 27.8%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 30.6%, close to the one-year level of 27.8%. How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	948.09–1,054.23	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout. Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	0.85	Neutral	A beta of 0.85 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day. How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 0.49× / 5-day 1.11×	Neutral	The final session traded 0.49× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.11× — normal participation. How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 0.90	Neutral	Average volume on up days was 0.90× that on down days — balanced. Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV falling	Bearish	OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move. Bullish OBV rising · Bearish OBV falling · No neutral zone.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	falling (20d)	Bearish	The A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume. Bullish A/D line rising · Bearish A/D line falling · No neutral zone.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	-0.19	Bearish	CMF at -0.19 indicated net outflows. Bullish above +0.05 (net inflows) · Bearish below –0.05 (net outflows) · Neutral between –0.05 and +0.05.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	40.9	Bearish	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 40.9. Bullish MFI 55–80 · Bearish MFI 20–45 · Neutral 45–55. Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹711 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹711 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — highly liquid. How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	923.85 / 892.15 / 835.95	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 923.85, 2.7% below the close, then 892.15, 835.95. How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	975.27 / 1,023.95 / 1,048.70	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 975.27, 2.7% above the close, then 1,023.95, 1,048.70. How to read: Information only.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 949.73 \| R1 961.97 \| S1 936.97	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 949.73; the close was below it. How to read: Information only.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 1,096 \| 38.2% 1,046 \| 50.0% 1,006 \| 61.8% 966	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month rise from 835.95 to 1,176.00, the close was nearest the 61.8% retracement at 965.85. How to read: Information only.
42	52-week high / low	H 1,176.00 / L 657.50	Neutral	The close was 19.3% below the 52-week high and 44.4% above the 52-week low. Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	3 open; latest gap-down 23 Jun at 1,003.60	Neutral	There were 3 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 23 Jun 2026, left an open level at 1,003.60 that price had not revisited. How to read: Information only.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	pullback inside a larger uptrend	Neutral	Rule-based pattern scan: pullback inside a larger uptrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.) Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 937.50–1,159.90	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 937.50–1,159.90. Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary green candle	Neutral	On 02 Jul the candle opened 942.05, ranged 942.05–962.50 and closed 949.20: Ordinary green candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own. Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 977.88–1,072.02; Tenkan 977.80 / Kijun 1,056.75	Bearish	Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup. Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M -20.1% / 3M +3.6%	Bullish	The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 3.6 points over three months and underperformed by 20.1 points over one month. Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M +17.5%	Bullish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 17.5 points ahead of the Nifty 50. Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50	Technical summary	9 bullish · 16 bearish · 22 neutral · 2 caution	Bearish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 923.85, resistance 975.27. This is a description of the chart on 02 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 02 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 02 Jul 2026 close.

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	15.9×	Neutral	At ₹949.20 the market valued the company at about ₹2,13,273 crore, or 15.9× the ₹13,391 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple. How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2	Price / Book	1.56×	Neutral	Market cap was 1.56× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹1,36,583 crore. How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3	Price / Sales	0.78×	Neutral	The company was valued at 0.78× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹2,74,944 crore. How to read: Information only.
4	EV / EBITDA (approx.)	9.0×	Neutral	Enterprise value (market cap + ₹99,165 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 9.0× trailing operating profit of ₹34,877 crore. How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5	Earnings yield	6.3%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹6.3 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds. How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	1.61	Neutral	P/E of 15.9 divided by 3-year profit growth of 9.9% a year gives a PEG of 1.61. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-2,061 crore; the Mar 2026 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-3,146 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons. Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	0.53%	Neutral	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹5 a share, a 0.53% yield on the ₹949.20 price. Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8	Market capitalisation	₹2,13,273 cr	Neutral	At about ₹2.13 lakh crore the company was a large-cap. How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9	Graham number vs price	₹902.86 vs ₹949.20	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹902.86; the price was 5% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number. Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+15.3%	Bullish	Revenue for FY26 was ₹2,74,944 crore, +15.3% versus FY25. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% (revenue fell) · Neutral 0–10%.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+20.4%	Bullish	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹78,133 crore of revenue, +20.4% on the same quarter a year earlier. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	-16.3%	Caution	FY26 net profit was ₹13,391 crore, -16.3% on FY25's ₹16,002 crore. Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-2,061 crore; the Mar 2026 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-3,146 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%. Caution if a one-off item distorted the figure.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	-50.9%	Caution	Quarterly profit was ₹2,597 crore versus ₹5,284 crore a year earlier (-50.9%). Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-2,061 crore; the Mar 2026 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-3,146 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	7.2%	Neutral	Revenue compounded at 7.2% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	9.9%	Neutral	Net profit compounded at 9.9% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-2,061 crore; the Mar 2026 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-3,146 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	15.8%	Bullish	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 15.8% a year. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	-16.3%	Caution	Reported EPS went from ₹71.20 to ₹59.59 (-16.3%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-2,061 crore; the Mar 2026 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-3,146 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Operating margin FY26	13%	Neutral	Operating profit (EBITDA) was 13% of sales in FY26 versus 13% in FY25. How to read: Information only — normal margins differ a lot by industry.
19	Operating margin trend (4 quarters)	12% → 14% → 12% → 13%	Neutral	Quarterly margins moved from 12% to 13% over the last four quarters — broadly stable. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral when broadly stable.
20	Net profit margin FY26	4.9%	Neutral	₹4.9 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26. How to read: Information only.
21	Return on equity FY26	10.3%	Neutral	FY26 profit was 10.3% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak. Bullish above 18% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–18%. Around 15% or more is generally considered good.
22	ROCE FY26	13%	Neutral	Return on capital employed (debt + equity) was 13% in FY26. Bullish above 20% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–20%.
23	Return on assets FY26	3.89%	Neutral	Net profit was 3.89% of total assets. Bullish banks only: 1.5% or more · Bearish banks only: below 1% · Information only for non-banks.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	28%	Neutral	The company paid about 28% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%. How to read: Information only. India’s base corporate rate is about 25%.
25	Other income share of pre-tax profit	-22%	Neutral	Non-operating 'other income' of ₹-4,074 crore made up -22% of pre-tax profit. How to read: Caution above 25% (headline profit leans on non-core income). Neutral otherwise.

D. Balance sheet

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Debt / equity	0.73	Neutral	Borrowings of ₹99,165 crore were 0.73× equity — moderate leverage. Bullish below 0.3 (very low leverage) · Bearish above 1 (high leverage) · Neutral 0.3–1.
27	Debt / EBITDA	2.84×	Neutral	Debt equalled 2.84 years of FY26 operating profit. Bullish below 1× · Bearish above 3× · Neutral 1–3×.
28	Interest coverage	6.3×	Neutral	Earnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 6.3 times. Bullish above 8× · Bearish below 3× · Neutral 3–8×, or not meaningful when interest is negligible.
29	Book value growth	+10.4%	Bullish	Shareholders' equity grew +10.4% from ₹1,23,709 crore to ₹1,36,583 crore in FY26. Bullish above 10% (banks: above 12%) · Bearish below 0% (non-banks only) · Neutral otherwise.
30	Capital work in progress	₹49,526 cr (38% of fixed assets)	Neutral	Projects under construction (CWIP) were 38% of fixed assets — a big expansion pipeline not yet earning. How to read: Information only. Above 20% means a big expansion pipeline that is not yet earning.
31	Working capital days	2 days	Neutral	Working capital tied up equalled 2 days of sales (FY25: 23). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations. How to read: Information only. Lower is generally more efficient; negative means suppliers or customers fund the business.
32	Cash conversion cycle	65 days	Neutral	It took 65 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit. How to read: Information only. Shorter is generally better.
33	Debtor days	36 (FY25 30)	Neutral	Customers took 36 days on average to pay, versus 30 a year earlier. How to read: Caution when debtor days rose more than 20% in a year (collections stretching). Neutral otherwise.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹10,250 cr	Neutral	The business generated ₹10,250 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹24,410 crore in FY25. Bullish positive and higher than the year before · Bearish negative · Neutral when positive but lower. Information only for banks.
35	Free cash flow FY26	₹-19,508 cr	Bearish	After capital spending, free cash flow was ₹-19,508 crore. Bullish positive · Bearish negative · Neutral when not available.
36	Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)	0.77×	Neutral	Operating cash flow was 0.77× reported profit — reasonable cash backing. Bullish above 1× (profits well backed by cash) · Caution below 0.7×. Neutral 0.7–1×.
37	Free-cash-flow yield	-9.1%	Neutral	FY26 free cash flow was -9.1% of the snapshot market cap. Bullish above 4% · Neutral at 4% or less.
38	Free cash flow — 3-year total	₹-7,124 cr	Bearish	Free cash flow over FY24–FY26 added up to ₹-7,124 crore. Bullish positive total · Bearish negative total · Neutral when not available.
39	Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)	₹29,758 cr	Neutral	Implied capital expenditure was about ₹29,758 crore, 10.8% of sales. How to read: Information only.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	8%	Neutral	The company paid out about 8% of FY26 profit as dividends. How to read: Information only. High payout suits mature businesses; growing firms often keep more.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	8% / 7% / 8%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year. Bullish paid every year · Neutral when irregular. Never tagged Bearish.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+0.0%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital changed +0.0% (₹222 cr → ₹222 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution. Bullish fell 1% or more (a buyback) · Caution when it rose 1% or more (new shares issued). Neutral when unchanged, or for a bonus/split.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	34.65% (+0.00 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 34.65% at Mar 2026 versus 34.65% a year earlier. Bearish fell more than 1 percentage point in a year · Neutral otherwise. Never tagged Bullish.
44	Foreign institutional holding	29.96% (+1.81 pts YoY)	Bullish	FIIs held 29.96% at Mar 2026, up from 28.15% a year before. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
45	Domestic institutional holding	21.35% (-3.33 pts YoY)	Bearish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 21.35%, down from 24.68%. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
46	Number of shareholders	6.9 lakh (+1.5% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 6.8 lakh to 6.9 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest. How to read: Information only — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares. How to read: Information only. Any sizeable pledge is a risk to note.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	4/8	Bearish	Passed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, operating margin improved, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: CFO > net profit, leverage fell, ROA improved, asset turnover improved. Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49	Automated screen flags	1 strength(s) · 2 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Company has delivered good profit growth of 35.2% CAGR over last 5 years. Weaknesses: Company has a low return on equity of 12.5% over last 3 years; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.) How to read: Information only.
50	Fundamental summary	6 bullish · 4 bearish · 36 neutral · 3 caution	Neutral	On the numbers published by 02 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture was mixed. Valuation: P/E 15.9×, P/B 1.56×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 02 Apr 2026 – 02 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

21 Apr 2026 Hindalco likely to replace Trent in Sensex in June rejig — Business Standard reported that Hindalco was expected to replace Trent in the Sensex at the June 2026 rebalance, with analysts estimating passive inflows of about Rs 3,800 crore. source
19 May 2026 Novelis reports $84 million Q4 net loss on Oswego fire costs — Hindalco's US subsidiary Novelis reported a fiscal Q4 net loss of $84 million, attributed to fire incidents at its Oswego, New York plant, while net sales rose 4% to $4.8 billion. source
19 May 2026 Hindalco plans brownfield smelter and power expansion in Odisha — Hindalco plans to raise aluminium smelting capacity at its Odisha facility from 680,000 to 900,000 tonnes a year and captive power from 1,230 MW to 1,530 MW within existing premises. source
22 May 2026 Hindalco Q4 FY26 net profit falls 51%; Rs 5 dividend recommended — Hindalco reported Q4 FY26 consolidated revenue of Rs 78,133 crore (up 20% YoY) and net profit of Rs 2,597 crore (down about 51%), hit by exceptional items linked to the Novelis Oswego disruption; the board recommended a Rs 5 per share dividend. source
23 Jun 2026 Vedanta, NALCO, Hindalco fall in June as metal stocks consolidate — Business Standard reported that metal stocks including Hindalco declined in June 2026, attributing the fall to profit-taking after a strong rally in the Nifty Metal index earlier in the year. source

What happened next (02 Jul 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹949.20 to ₹941.85 by 01 Oct 2026 (-0.8%) while the Nifty 50 moved -7.3% — outperforming by 6.5 points.
Highest ₹1,087.95 on 12 Aug 2026; lowest ₹923.50 on 01 Oct 2026.
S1 923.85: held on a closing basis.
S2 892.15: held on a closing basis.
R1 975.27: cleared on a closing basis on 06 Jul 2026.
R2 1,023.95: cleared on a closing basis on 05 Aug 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 15 Sep 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 07 Aug 2026): revenue ₹84,825 crore (+32.1% YoY), net profit ₹7,013 crore (+75.1% YoY), operating margin 16% vs 12% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).

Later news

23 Jul 2026 Hindalco lines up potential Rs 1 trillion investment in India — At the 67th AGM, chairman Kumar Mangalam Birla said Hindalco will invest Rs 50,000 crore over three years and is evaluating another Rs 50,000 crore across upstream and downstream operations. source
07 Aug 2026 Hindalco Q1 FY27 net profit rises 75% to Rs 7,013 crore — Hindalco reported Q1 FY27 consolidated net profit of Rs 7,013 crore, up 75% YoY, with revenue from operations up 32% to Rs 84,825 crore; the company said all four segments posted record quarterly EBITDA. source
07 Aug 2026 Hindalco pursues about Rs 50,000 crore of projects as debt peaks near Rs 80,000 crore — Business Standard reported that Hindalco expects debt to peak at around Rs 80,000 crore while executing roughly Rs 50,000 crore of aluminium, copper and recycling projects. source
27 Aug 2026 Hindalco commissions specialty alumina plant in Karnataka — Hindalco commissioned a super specialty alumina plant in Belagavi, Karnataka with initial capacity of 30,000 tonnes a year, producing a halogen-free flame-retardant material. source

Educational summary. On 02 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture was mixed. Over the next three months the stock moved -0.8% against -7.3% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Hindalco Industries today.

Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 05 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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