Life insuranceHistorical case study · data as of 02 Jul 2026 · published 05 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
HDFC Life — 100-point case study
How HDFC Life looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 02 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: HDFC Life is an insurer: Screener's 'Sales' line is premium and investment income, and ratios built for manufacturers (operating margin, working-capital days, debt/equity) say little about an insurer. Industry measures such as VNB margin and solvency ratio are not covered here. 14.5 crore new shares were allotted to HDFC Bank on 16 Jun 2026.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 02 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.21%/day
Bullish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.21% a day — a short-term uptrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return -6.4%
Bearish
The 100-session trend line was down (-0.24%/day) and the stock was -6.4% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -27.6%
Bearish
Compared with a year earlier the price was -27.6%. A weak year for the stock.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 590.80 / 30W 654.27
Bearish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 624.05→605.00; lows 594.05→543.00
Bearish
The two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
13.4
Neutral
ADX at 13.4 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 22.4 / –DI 28.0
Bearish
–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
575.86 (-0.8%)
Bearish
Close of 571.35 was 0.8% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
592.22 (-3.5%)
Bearish
Close of 571.35 was 3.5% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
691.18 (-17.3%)
Bearish
Close of 571.35 was 17.3% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 579.14 / 21E 582.14
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 30 Jun 2026.
The 50-day average was 14.3% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
-2.0% in 20 sessions
Bearish
The 50-day average fell 2.0% over the past month — declining.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
576 / 592 / 626 / 691
Bearish
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bearish (20 < 50 < 100 < 200).
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
570.41 (+0.2%)
Bullish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 570.41; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
42.0
Bearish
RSI at 42.0 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -3.89 / signal -4.05
Bullish
MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
3.64 → 0.15
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.43 (bands 545.60–606.11)
Neutral
%B of 0.43 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 10.5% (56th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 56th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹12.26 (2.1% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹12.26, or 2.1% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
22.6% vs 1Y 21.5%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 22.6%, close to the one-year level of 21.5%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
558.37–605.32
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
0.90
Neutral
A beta of 0.90 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.40× / 5-day 1.25×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.40× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.25× — heavier than usual participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 0.79
Bearish
Average volume on up days was 0.79× that on down days — distribution-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV falling
Bearish
OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹165 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
555.10 / 543.00
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 555.10, 2.9% below the close, then 543.00.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
590.00 / 605.00 / 626.67
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 590.00, 3.3% above the close, then 605.00, 626.67.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 570.88 | R1 576.97 | S1 565.27
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 570.88; the close was above it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 599 | 38.2% 633 | 50.0% 661 | 61.8% 689
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month fall from 779.90 to 543.00, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 598.91.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 820.75 / L 543.00
Neutral
The close was 30.4% below the 52-week high and 5.2% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
2 open; latest gap-up 15 Jun at 557.85
Neutral
There were 2 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 15 Jun 2026, left an open level at 557.85 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 543.00–605.00
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 543.00–605.00.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary red candle
Neutral
On 02 Jul the candle opened 574.30, ranged 569.05–576.50 and closed 571.35: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 606.16–617.15; Tenkan 584.90 / Kijun 583.52
Bearish
Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -4.4% / 3M -12.3%
Bearish
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 12.3 points over three months and underperformed by 4.4 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M -17.6%
Bearish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 17.6 points behind the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
3 bullish · 23 bearish · 23 neutral · 0 caution
Bearish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 555.10, resistance 590.00. This is a description of the chart on 02 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 02 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 02 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
65.0×
Neutral
At ₹571.35 the market valued the company at about ₹1,24,178 crore, or 65.0× the ₹1,911 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
7.00×
Neutral
Market cap was 7.00× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹17,750 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
1.25×
Neutral
The company was valued at 1.25× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹99,432 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
112.3×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹3,099 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 112.3× trailing operating profit of ₹1,133 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
1.5%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹1.5 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
5.50
Bearish
P/E of 65.0 divided by 3-year profit growth of 11.8% a year gives a PEG of 5.50. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
0.37%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹2.1 a share, a 0.37% yield on the ₹571.35 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹1,24,178 cr
Neutral
At about ₹1.24 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹127.11 vs ₹571.35
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹127.11; the price was 349% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+2.6%
Neutral
Revenue for FY26 was ₹99,432 crore, +2.6% versus FY25.
Revenue compounded at 12.3% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15
Profit CAGR (3 years)
11.8%
Neutral
Net profit compounded at 11.8% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
6.8%
Neutral
Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 6.8% a year. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17
EPS growth FY26 (reported)
+5.4%
Neutral
Reported EPS went from ₹8.41 to ₹8.86 (+5.4%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
1 strength(s) · 5 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 25.3%. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 5.93 times its book value; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 6.81% over past five years; Tax rate appears low; Company has a low return on equity of 11.1% over last 3 years; Earnings include an other income of Rs.931 Cr. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
8 bullish · 3 bearish · 37 neutral · 1 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 02 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 65.0×, P/B 7.00×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 02 Apr 2026 – 02 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
16 Apr 2026HDFC Life Q4 FY26 PAT rises ~5% YoY to Rs 497 crore; final dividend of Rs 2.10 recommended — HDFC Life reported Q4 FY26 profit after tax of about Rs 497.5 crore (up ~4.7% YoY) and FY26 PAT of about Rs 1,910 crore (up ~6%). Net premium income for the quarter was about Rs 25,998 crore (up ~9%); FY26 value of new business was about Rs 4,034 crore (up ~2%). The board recommended a final dividend of Rs 2.10 per share, subject to shareholder approval. source
17 Apr 2026HDFC Bank board approves Rs 1,000 crore investment in HDFC Life via preferential issue — HDFC Bank's board approved investing up to Rs 1,000 crore in its subsidiary HDFC Life through a preferential equity issue, possibly in one or more tranches and subject to regulatory approval. source
12 Jun 2026HDFC Life fixes June 19 as record date for Rs 2.10 final dividend — HDFC Life set June 19, 2026 as the record date for its FY26 final dividend of Rs 2.10 per share, subject to approval at its 26th AGM scheduled for July 16, 2026. source
16 Jun 2026HDFC Life allots about 1.45 crore shares to HDFC Bank for Rs 1,000 crore — HDFC Life allotted 1,45,23,906 equity shares to promoter HDFC Bank on a preferential basis at Rs 688.52 per share (about Rs 1,000 crore), taking total equity shares to about 217.25 crore. source
25 Jun 2026HDFC Life annual report: FY26 premiums up 12%, retail protection up 43% — HDFC Life's FY26 annual disclosures cited 12% growth in total premiums, 43% growth in retail protection, PAT of about Rs 1,910 crore, AUM of about Rs 3.75 lakh crore and embedded value of about Rs 62,139 crore. source
What happened next (02 Jul 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹571.35 to ₹534.20 by 01 Oct 2026 (-6.5%) while the Nifty 50 moved -7.3% — outperforming by 0.8 points.
Highest ₹588.00 on 16 Jul 2026; lowest ₹508.70 on 10 Sep 2026.
S1 555.10: broken on a closing basis on 09 Jul 2026.
S2 543.00: broken on a closing basis on 04 Aug 2026.
R1 590.00: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 605.00: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 15 Jul 2026): revenue ₹33,759 crore (+14.6% YoY), net profit ₹611 crore (+11.5% YoY), operating margin 2% vs 2% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
15 Jul 2026HDFC Life Q1 FY27 PAT up 12% to about Rs 611 crore; VNB margin steady at ~25% — For April-June 2026, HDFC Life reported PAT of about Rs 611 crore (up ~12% YoY), value of new business of about Rs 879 crore (up ~9%) with VNB margin around 25%, APE up ~9% and AUM of about Rs 4.01 lakh crore. source
16 Jul 2026HDFC Life shares slip despite Q1 beat as brokerages stay cautious — A day after results, the stock declined intraday. Net premium rose about 14% to roughly Rs 16,548 crore. Motilal Oswal kept Buy (target Rs 690) and JM Financial kept Add (target Rs 640). source
09 Sep 2026HDFC Bank and HDFC Life hit fresh 52-week lows, down about 30% in 2026 — HDFC Life traded near Rs 519, down about 31% year-to-date, hitting a 52-week low; the report cited slower business growth and macro concerns including high crude oil prices and rate-hike worries. source
24 Sep 2026HDFC Life shares fall 6.16% to close at Rs 526.90 — The stock closed at Rs 526.90, down 6.16% on the day with an intraday low of Rs 514, near its 52-week low of Rs 509; the report did not state a specific trigger. source
Educational summary. On 02 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -6.5% against -7.3% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold HDFC Life today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 05 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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