Coal mining (PSU)Historical case study · data as of 02 Jul 2026 · published 05 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Coal India — 100-point case study
How Coal India looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 02 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Prices from Yahoo Finance to 28 Aug 2026; later rows from stockanalysis.com and equitypandit.com (cross-checked on overlapping dates). The government sold a 2% stake through an offer for sale in late May 2026, cutting promoter holding from 63.13% to 61.13%.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 02 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope -0.39%/day
Bearish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.39% a day — a short-term downtrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return -1.4%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.06%/day) and the stock was -1.4% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +13.4%
Bullish
Compared with a year earlier the price was +13.4%. A strong positive year.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 455.59 / 30W 438.61
Neutral
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 491.25→484.45; lows 428.40→439.65
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
18.9
Neutral
ADX at 18.9 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 14.4 / –DI 24.9
Bearish
–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
450.43 (-2.6%)
Bearish
Close of 438.90 was 2.6% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
457.68 (-4.1%)
Bearish
Close of 438.90 was 4.1% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
421.92 (+4.0%)
Bullish
Close of 438.90 was 4.0% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 441.91 / 21E 448.12
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 11 Jun 2026.
The 50-day average was 8.5% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+0.2% in 20 sessions
Neutral
The 50-day average rose 0.2% over the past month — flattening.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
450 / 458 / 449 / 422
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
436.59 (+0.5%)
Bullish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 436.59; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
41.4
Bearish
RSI at 41.4 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -5.86 / signal -4.50
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-2.11 → -1.37
Bullish
The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.27 (bands 425.50–475.36)
Neutral
%B of 0.27 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 11.1% (64th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 64th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹10.27 (2.3% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹10.27, or 2.3% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
21.4% vs 1Y 22.3%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 21.4%, close to the one-year level of 22.3%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
428.49–466.99
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
0.26
Neutral
A beta of 0.26 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.61× / 5-day 1.02×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.61× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.02× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.82
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 1.82× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV falling
Bearish
OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹366 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
433.89 / 412.56 / 393.05
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 433.89, 1.2% below the close, then 412.56, 393.05.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
439.45 / 462.09 / 474.00
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 439.45, 0.1% above the close, then 462.09, 474.00.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 437.23 | R1 441.67 | S1 434.47
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 437.23; the close was above it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 469 | 38.2% 455 | 50.0% 443 | 61.8% 432
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month rise from 395.50 to 491.25, the close was nearest the 50.0% retracement at 443.38.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 491.25 / L 368.65
Neutral
The close was 10.7% below the 52-week high and 19.1% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
none
Neutral
No unfilled price gaps in the last six months.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
pullback inside a larger uptrend
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: pullback inside a larger uptrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 432.00–484.45
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 432.00–484.45.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Doji
Neutral
On 02 Jul the candle opened 438.40, ranged 432.80–440.00 and closed 438.90: Doji — indecision. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 459.38–461.70; Tenkan 443.40 / Kijun 456.42
Bearish
Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -10.0% / 3M -7.3%
Bearish
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 7.3 points over three months and underperformed by 10.0 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M +17.3%
Bullish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 17.3 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
8 bullish · 16 bearish · 24 neutral · 1 caution
Bearish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 433.89, resistance 439.45. This is a description of the chart on 02 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 02 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 02 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
8.7×
Neutral
At ₹438.90 the market valued the company at about ₹2,70,740 crore, or 8.7× the ₹31,125 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
2.27×
Neutral
Market cap was 2.27× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹1,19,102 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
1.75×
Neutral
The company was valued at 1.75× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹1,54,520 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
6.9×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹14,072 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 6.9× trailing operating profit of ₹41,308 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
11.5%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹11.5 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
n/m
Neutral
PEG is not meaningful because 3-year profit growth was -0.7%.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
6.02%
Bullish
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹26.4 a share, a 6.02% yield on the ₹438.90 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹2,70,740 cr
Neutral
At about ₹2.71 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹468.19 vs ₹438.90
Bullish
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹468.19; the price was 6% below it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
-0.5%
Bearish
Revenue for FY26 was ₹1,68,400 crore, -0.5% versus FY25.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
3 strength(s) · 1 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 6.30%; Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 37.9%; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 46.8%. Weaknesses: Promoter holding has decreased over last quarter: -2.00%. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
17 bullish · 6 bearish · 25 neutral · 1 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 02 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 8.7×, P/B 2.27×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 02 Apr 2026 – 02 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
27 Apr 2026Coal India Q4 FY26 net profit rises 12% YoY to Rs 10,908 crore; final dividend of Rs 5.25 declared — Revenue from operations rose about 6% YoY to Rs 46,490 crore in the March 2026 quarter. Full-year FY26 profit fell about 12% to Rs 31,071 crore on higher expenses including wage revision costs. Board recommended a final dividend of Rs 5.25 per share. source
26 May 2026Government announces offer for sale of up to 2% stake in Coal India at Rs 412 floor price — Base offer of 1% (6.16 crore shares) plus a 1% green-shoe option; non-retail bidding on May 27 and retail on May 29. Floor price was about 10% below the prior close. source
29 May 2026Coal India OFS closes; government exercises green-shoe to sell 2% stake — Non-retail portion was subscribed about 4 times and retail portion about 1.3 times; the government exercised the green-shoe option, taking the sale to 2% of paid-up equity (12.32 crore shares). source
01 Jun 2026Coal India May 2026 production falls 11.6% YoY; offtake up 2.2% — Production was 56.1 MT in May 2026 versus 63.5 MT a year earlier, while offtake rose to 66.7 MT from 65.2 MT. source
01 Jul 2026Coal India June 2026 offtake rises 7.5% YoY; production marginally lower — June production was 57.4 MT (down 0.6% YoY) and offtake 65.8 MT (up 7.5%). Q1 FY27 cumulative production was 169.6 MT and offtake 197.7 MT. source
What happened next (02 Jul 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹438.90 to ₹420.40 by 01 Oct 2026 (-4.2%) while the Nifty 50 moved -7.3% — outperforming by 3.0 points.
Highest ₹445.45 on 03 Jul 2026; lowest ₹395.80 on 20 Aug 2026.
S1 433.89: broken on a closing basis on 06 Jul 2026.
S2 412.56: broken on a closing basis on 28 Jul 2026.
R1 439.45: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 462.09: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 28 Jul 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 27 Jul 2026): revenue ₹46,255 crore (+7.8% YoY), net profit ₹8,850 crore (+0.7% YoY), operating margin 26% vs 29% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
27 Jul 2026Coal India Q1 FY27 net profit up 0.7% to Rs 8,850 crore; interim dividend of Rs 5.50 — Revenue from operations rose about 8% YoY to Rs 46,255 crore; EPS Rs 14.36. Production fell 7% to 169.63 MT while offtake rose 4% to 197.86 MT. Interim dividend Rs 5.50 per share with record date July 31, 2026. source
02 Sep 2026Coal India shares rise as August coal supplies grow 5.5% YoY — August 2026 supplies were 60.6 MT (up 5.5% YoY) while production fell 5.7% to 47.5 MT; average e-auction premium was 59% in August. Reports also cited subsidiary Mahanadi Coalfields filing papers for a proposed IPO. source
04 Sep 2026Coal India record date for Rs 5.25 final dividend after AGM on August 31 — The company scheduled its 52nd AGM for August 31, 2026 to approve the FY26 final dividend of Rs 5.25 per share, with September 4, 2026 as the record date. source
01 Oct 2026Coal India September 2026 production up 9.2%, offtake up 12.5% YoY — September production was 53.5 MT and offtake 61.2 MT. For April-September 2026, production was 321 MT (down 2.5%) and offtake 384.2 MT (up 7.6%). source
Educational summary. On 02 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -4.2% against -7.3% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Coal India today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 05 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction