Railway construction (PSU)Historical case study · data as of 17 Jul 2026 · published 22 Oct 2026 (97 days later)
Rail Vikas Nigam — 100-point case study
How Rail Vikas Nigam looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 17 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 17 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope -0.43%/day
Bearish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.43% a day — a short-term downtrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return -23.3%
Bearish
The 100-session trend line was down (-0.28%/day) and the stock was -23.3% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -40.9%
Bearish
Compared with a year earlier the price was -40.9%. A weak year for the stock.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 244.71 / 30W 287.30
Bearish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 311.45→251.38; lows 221.55→223.56
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
22.6
Bearish
ADX at 22.6 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 21.6 / –DI 30.3
Bearish
–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
234.12 (-3.7%)
Bearish
Close of 225.44 was 3.7% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
248.65 (-9.3%)
Bearish
Close of 225.44 was 9.3% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
298.87 (-24.6%)
Bearish
Close of 225.44 was 24.6% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 228.80 / 21E 233.61
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 14 May 2026.
The 50-day average was 16.8% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
-8.7% in 20 sessions
Bearish
The 50-day average fell 8.7% over the past month — declining.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
234 / 249 / 268 / 299
Bearish
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bearish (20 < 50 < 100 < 200).
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
231.05 (-2.4%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 231.05; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
35.2
Bearish
RSI at 35.2 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -5.88 / signal -6.07
Bullish
MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
0.45 → 0.19
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.16 (bands 221.23–247.01)
Neutral
%B of 0.16 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 11.0% (12th pct of 6M)
Caution
Band width was at the 12th percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown).
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹5.77 (2.6% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹5.77, or 2.6% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
29.7% vs 1Y 34.1%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 29.7%, close to the one-year level of 34.1%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
222.38–243.98
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.54
Neutral
A beta of 1.54 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.82× / 5-day 0.86×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.82× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.86× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.81
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 1.81× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV falling
Bearish
OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹112 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
222.56
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 222.56, 1.3% below the close.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
236.89 / 251.38 / 274.62
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 236.89, 5.1% above the close, then 251.38, 274.62.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 230.06 | R1 236.57 | S1 218.94
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 230.06; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 253 | 38.2% 272 | 50.0% 287 | 61.8% 303
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month fall from 352.80 to 221.55, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 252.53.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 400.70 / L 221.55
Bearish
The close was 43.7% below the 52-week high and 1.8% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
4 open; latest gap-down 26 May at 272.00
Neutral
There were 4 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 26 May 2026, left an open level at 272.00 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
falling channel
Bearish
Rule-based pattern scan: falling channel — successive lower highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 223.56–251.38
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 223.56–251.38.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary red candle
Neutral
On 17 Jul the candle opened 227.40, ranged 224.50–227.89 and closed 225.44: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 254.81–269.43; Tenkan 230.22 / Kijun 236.47
Bearish
Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -9.1% / 3M -23.9%
Bearish
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 23.9 points over three months and underperformed by 9.1 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M -28.2%
Bearish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 28.2 points behind the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
2 bullish · 28 bearish · 16 neutral · 3 caution
Bearish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 222.56, resistance 236.89. This is a description of the chart on 17 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 17 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 17 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
54.0×
Neutral
At ₹225.44 the market valued the company at about ₹47,068 crore, or 54.0× the ₹871 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
4.79×
Neutral
Market cap was 4.79× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹9,822 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
2.31×
Neutral
The company was valued at 2.31× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹20,412 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
68.3×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹4,818 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 68.3× trailing operating profit of ₹760 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
1.9%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹1.9 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
n/m
Neutral
PEG is not meaningful because 3-year profit growth was -13.4%.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
1.21%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹2.72 a share, a 1.21% yield on the ₹225.44 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹47,068 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.47 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹66.45 vs ₹225.44
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹66.45; the price was 239% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+2.5%
Neutral
Revenue for FY26 was ₹20,412 crore, +2.5% versus FY25.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
1 strength(s) · 6 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 32.4%. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 4.08 times its book value; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 5.79% over past five years; Company has a low return on equity of 13.8% over last 3 years; Earnings include an other income of Rs.779 Cr; Debtor days have increased from 48.8 to 96.0 days; Working capital days have increased from 57.1 days to 98.0 days. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
3 bullish · 10 bearish · 33 neutral · 3 caution
Bearish
On the numbers published by 17 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned negative. Valuation: P/E 54.0×, P/B 4.79×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 17 Apr 2026 – 17 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
17 Apr 2026RVNL emerges L1 bidder for Rs 967.92 crore East Coast Railway bridges project; shares rise 4.44% — RVNL disclosed on 16 April 2026 that it was the lowest bidder for Rs 967.92 crore (incl. GST) of bridge works on the 3rd/4th line of the Bhadrak-Vizianagaram section, with a 3-year EPC timeline. The stock rose about 4.4% intraday on 17 April. source
22 May 2026RVNL wins orders worth about Rs 1,002 crore from NMDC and West Central Railway — RVNL received an NMDC letter of acceptance for Rs 758.07 crore of railway siding and civil works linked to Bacheli capacity expansion, and was L1 for a Rs 244.32 crore West Central Railway electrification upgradation job. source
25 May 2026RVNL Q4 FY26 consolidated profit falls about 60% YoY despite 4% revenue growth — Q4 FY26 consolidated net profit fell to about Rs 181.66 crore from Rs 455.39 crore, while revenue rose about 4% to Rs 6,696 crore; FY26 net profit fell 32% to Rs 870.66 crore. The board recommended a final dividend of Rs 0.71 per share. source
08 Jun 2026RVNL wins Rs 221.33 crore signalling upgrade project from South East Central Railway — RVNL received a letter of acceptance for about Rs 221.33 crore to replace panel interlocking with electronic interlocking and upgrade power systems at 17 stations in Bilaspur Division, on EPC basis over 730 days. source
17 Jul 2026RVNL signs MoU with Government of Goa for infrastructure project development — RVNL announced an MoU under which it will act as Project Executing Agency for infrastructure projects in Goa. The stock traded around Rs 225.69 on NSE that afternoon. source
What happened next (17 Jul 2026 → 21 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹225.44 to ₹188.41 by 21 Oct 2026 (-16.4%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.3% — underperforming by 10.2 points.
Highest ₹236.76 on 07 Aug 2026; lowest ₹186.80 on 21 Oct 2026.
S1 222.56: broken on a closing basis on 28 Jul 2026.
R1 236.89: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 251.38: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 11 Aug 2026): revenue ₹4,321 crore (+10.5% YoY), net profit ₹160 crore (+19.4% YoY), operating margin 4% vs 1% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
21 Jul 2026RVNL shares face worst year since listing — Business Today reported RVNL was down about 38% year-to-date in 2026, closing at Rs 225.25 near its 52-week low of Rs 221.75, after a 60% fall in Q4 profit and negative FY26 operating cash flow. source
11 Aug 2026Rail Vikas Nigam Q1 FY27 net profit rises 18.7%, revenue up 10.5% — For the quarter ended 30 June 2026, RVNL reported consolidated net profit of Rs 159.52 crore versus Rs 134.36 crore a year earlier, and revenue from operations of Rs 4,321.23 crore versus Rs 3,908.77 crore. source
25 Aug 2026RVNL 23rd AGM: shareholders approve Rs 0.71 final dividend — At its 23rd AGM, RVNL shareholders approved a final dividend of Rs 0.71 per share for FY26 and reviewed FY26 financial performance. source
10 Sep 2026RVNL secures Rs 903 crore contract from SJVN Thermal for Buxar power project — RVNL won a contract of about Rs 903 crore from SJVN Thermal for work at the Buxar power project in Bihar. source
20 Sep 2026RVNL secures Rs 404.88 crore East Coast Railway order for third line works — RVNL received an order of about Rs 404.88 crore from East Coast Railway for third railway line works. source
Educational summary. On 17 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned negative. Over the next three months the stock moved -16.4% against -6.3% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Rail Vikas Nigam today.
Method designed by our founder, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 22 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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