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Sugar & ethanol Historical case study · data as of 24 Jul 2026 · published 27 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

Balrampur Chini Mills — 100-point case study

How Balrampur Chini Mills looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 24 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: BALRAMCHIN · BSE: 500038
Close on 24 Jul 2026	₹610.15
Market cap then	₹12,908 crore
Valuation	P/E 34.1× · P/B 3.12×
Momentum	RSI (14) 64 · 1-year return +2.6%
Next 3 months	+4.9% vs Nifty 50 -4.9% (to 23 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

26 bullish · 20 neutral · 1 caution · 2 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Fundamental — 50 points

7 bullish · 31 neutral · 4 caution · 7 bearish — the picture was mixed.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Data note: Sugar companies have seasonal quarters (crushing runs roughly Nov–Apr), so quarter-on-quarter comparisons can swing sharply.

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 24 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope +0.72%/day	Bullish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.72% a day — a short-term uptrend. Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return +12.9%	Bullish	The 100-session trend line was up (+0.23%/day) and the stock was +12.9% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish. Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return +2.6%	Neutral	Compared with a year earlier the price was +2.6%. Little net progress over twelve months. Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 553.14 / 30W 499.68	Bullish	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack. Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 559.90→570.00; lows 510.15→523.00	Bullish	The two most recent swing points showed higher swing highs and higher swing lows — classic uptrend structure. Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	43.2	Bullish	ADX at 43.2 shows a strong trend in force. ADX measures strength only, not direction. Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 30.9 / –DI 7.8	Bullish	+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure. Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	581.72 (+4.9%)	Bullish	Close of 610.15 was 4.9% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	555.55 (+9.8%)	Bullish	Close of 610.15 was 9.8% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	487.46 (+25.2%)	Bullish	Close of 610.15 was 25.2% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 604.16 / 21E 585.76	Bullish	The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 30 Jun 2026. Bullish 9-day above 21-day · Bearish 9-day below 21-day · No neutral zone.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	last golden cross 05 May 2026	Bullish	The 50-day average was 14.0% above the 200-day. The most recent signal was a golden cross on 05 May 2026. Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13	50-day SMA slope	+4.7% in 20 sessions	Bullish	The 50-day average rose 4.7% over the past month — rising. Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14	MA ribbon alignment	582 / 556 / 527 / 487	Bullish	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bullish (20 > 50 > 100 > 200). Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	593.37 (+2.8%)	Bullish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 593.37; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit. Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	63.7	Bullish	RSI at 63.7 showed positive momentum without being overbought. Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	none	Neutral	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price. Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD 18.81 / signal 16.07	Bullish	MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive. Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	3.61 → 2.74	Bearish	The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening. Bullish histogram rising (momentum improving) · Bearish histogram falling (momentum weakening) · No neutral zone.
20	MACD vs zero line	18.81	Bullish	MACD above zero means the 12-day EMA was above the 26-day EMA — a positive momentum regime. Bullish MACD above zero · Bearish MACD below zero · No neutral zone.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 70.0 / %D 74.2	Bearish	Slow stochastic at 70.0 was mid-range with %K below %D. Bullish between 20 and 80 with %K above %D · Bearish between 20 and 80 with %K below %D · Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
22	Williams %R (14)	-36.7	Neutral	%R of -36.7 put the close in the middle of its 14-day range. How to read: Caution above –20 (near the top) or below –80 (near the bottom). Neutral in the middle. This point is never tagged Bullish or Bearish.
23	CCI (20)	92	Neutral	CCI at 92 was within the normal ±100 band. Bullish above +100 (unusually strong upward move) · Bearish below –100 (unusually strong downward move) · Neutral within ±100.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	+7.6%	Bullish	Price changed +7.6% over ten sessions. Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.77 (bands 529.43–634.01)	Neutral	%B of 0.77 — inside the bands, upper half. How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 18.0% (90th pct of 6M)	Neutral	Band width was at the 90th percentile of the last six months, so volatility was elevated. How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27	ATR (14)	₹19.07 (3.1% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹19.07, or 3.1% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect. How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	31.9% vs 1Y 32.4%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 31.9%, close to the one-year level of 32.4%. How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	548.25–625.78	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout. Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	0.37	Neutral	A beta of 0.37 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day. How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 0.31× / 5-day 1.24×	Neutral	The final session traded 0.31× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.24× — heavier than usual participation. How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 2.79	Bullish	Average volume on up days was 2.79× that on down days — accumulation-leaning. Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV rising	Bullish	OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move. Bullish OBV rising · Bearish OBV falling · No neutral zone.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	rising (20d)	Bullish	The A/D line rose, meaning closes tended to be in the upper part of daily ranges on meaningful volume. Bullish A/D line rising · Bearish A/D line falling · No neutral zone.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	0.04	Neutral	CMF at +0.04 indicated roughly balanced money flow. Bullish above +0.05 (net inflows) · Bearish below –0.05 (net outflows) · Neutral between –0.05 and +0.05.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	80.3	Caution	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 80.3 — overbought. Bullish MFI 55–80 · Bearish MFI 20–45 · Neutral 45–55. Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹45 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹45 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — moderately liquid. How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	555.20 / 530.34 / 511.83	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 555.20, 9.9% below the close, then 530.34, 511.83. How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	641.95	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 641.95, 5.2% above the close. How to read: Information only.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 597.88 \| R1 654.22 \| S1 553.82	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 597.88; the close was above it. How to read: Information only.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 583 \| 38.2% 547 \| 50.0% 518 \| 61.8% 488	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month rise from 393.55 to 641.95, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 583.33. How to read: Information only.
42	52-week high / low	H 641.95 / L 393.55	Bullish	The close was 5.0% below the 52-week high and 55.0% above the 52-week low. Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	1 open; latest gap-up 03 Feb at 425.60	Neutral	There was 1 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 03 Feb 2026, left an open level at 425.60 that price had not revisited. How to read: Information only.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	rising channel	Bullish	Rule-based pattern scan: rising channel — successive higher highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.) Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 523.00–641.95	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 523.00–641.95. Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46	Latest candlestick	Inside bar	Neutral	On 24 Jul the candle opened 612.00, ranged 607.25–620.50 and closed 610.15: Inside bar — range contraction. Single candles are weak signals on their own. Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 516.50–543.41; Tenkan 612.12 / Kijun 582.48	Bullish	Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup. Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M +14.7% / 3M +14.6%	Bullish	The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 14.6 points over three months and outperformed by 14.7 points over one month. Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M +52.4%	Bullish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 52.4 points ahead of the Nifty 50. Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50	Technical summary	26 bullish · 2 bearish · 20 neutral · 1 caution	Bullish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 555.20, resistance 641.95. This is a description of the chart on 24 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 24 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Jun 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 24 Jul 2026 close.

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	34.1×	Neutral	At ₹610.15 the market valued the company at about ₹12,908 crore, or 34.1× the ₹379 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth. How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2	Price / Book	3.12×	Neutral	Market cap was 3.12× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹4,138 crore. How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3	Price / Sales	2.06×	Neutral	The company was valued at 2.06× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹6,271 crore. How to read: Information only.
4	EV / EBITDA (approx.)	21.7×	Neutral	Enterprise value (market cap + ₹3,170 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 21.7× trailing operating profit of ₹741 crore. How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5	Earnings yield	2.9%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹2.9 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds. How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	3.41	Caution	P/E of 34.1 divided by 3-year profit growth of 10.0% a year gives a PEG of 3.41. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Note: the Sep 2024 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹73 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons. Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	0.57%	Neutral	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹3.5 a share, a 0.57% yield on the ₹610.15 price. Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8	Market capitalisation	₹12,908 cr	Neutral	At about ₹0.13 lakh crore the company was a small-cap. How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9	Graham number vs price	₹280.78 vs ₹610.15	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹280.78; the price was 117% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number. Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+15.8%	Bullish	Revenue for FY26 was ₹6,271 crore, +15.8% versus FY25. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% (revenue fell) · Neutral 0–10%.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+6.6%	Neutral	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹1,604 crore of revenue, +6.6% on the same quarter a year earlier. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	-13.5%	Caution	FY26 net profit was ₹378 crore, -13.5% on FY25's ₹437 crore. Note: the Sep 2024 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹73 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%. Caution if a one-off item distorted the figure.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	-30.1%	Caution	Quarterly profit was ₹160 crore versus ₹229 crore a year earlier (-30.1%). Note: the Sep 2024 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹73 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	10.4%	Neutral	Revenue compounded at 10.4% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	10.0%	Neutral	Net profit compounded at 10.0% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: the Sep 2024 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹73 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	5.4%	Neutral	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 5.4% a year. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	-13.4%	Caution	Reported EPS went from ₹21.64 to ₹18.74 (-13.4%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Note: the Sep 2024 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹73 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Operating margin FY26	12%	Neutral	Operating profit (EBITDA) was 12% of sales in FY26 versus 13% in FY25. How to read: Information only — normal margins differ a lot by industry.
19	Operating margin trend (4 quarters)	9% → 7% → 14% → 18%	Bullish	Quarterly margins moved from 9% to 18% over the last four quarters — expanding. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral when broadly stable.
20	Net profit margin FY26	6.0%	Neutral	₹6.0 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26. How to read: Information only.
21	Return on equity FY26	9.5%	Bearish	FY26 profit was 9.5% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak. Bullish above 18% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–18%. Around 15% or more is generally considered good.
22	ROCE FY26	9%	Bearish	Return on capital employed (debt + equity) was 9% in FY26. Bullish above 20% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–20%.
23	Return on assets FY26	4.50%	Neutral	Net profit was 4.50% of total assets. Bullish banks only: 1.5% or more · Bearish banks only: below 1% · Information only for non-banks.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	32%	Neutral	The company paid about 32% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%. How to read: Information only. India’s base corporate rate is about 25%.
25	Other income share of pre-tax profit	12%	Neutral	Non-operating 'other income' of ₹68 crore made up 12% of pre-tax profit. How to read: Caution above 25% (headline profit leans on non-core income). Neutral otherwise.

D. Balance sheet

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Debt / equity	0.77	Neutral	Borrowings of ₹3,170 crore were 0.77× equity — moderate leverage. Bullish below 0.3 (very low leverage) · Bearish above 1 (high leverage) · Neutral 0.3–1.
27	Debt / EBITDA	4.24×	Bearish	Debt equalled 4.24 years of FY26 operating profit. Bullish below 1× · Bearish above 3× · Neutral 1–3×.
28	Interest coverage	8.3×	Bullish	Earnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 8.3 times. Bullish above 8× · Bearish below 3× · Neutral 3–8×, or not meaningful when interest is negligible.
29	Book value growth	+9.0%	Neutral	Shareholders' equity grew +9.0% from ₹3,795 crore to ₹4,138 crore in FY26. Bullish above 10% (banks: above 12%) · Bearish below 0% (non-banks only) · Neutral otherwise.
30	Capital work in progress	₹1,747 cr (67% of fixed assets)	Neutral	Projects under construction (CWIP) were 67% of fixed assets — a big expansion pipeline not yet earning. How to read: Information only. Above 20% means a big expansion pipeline that is not yet earning.
31	Working capital days	22 days	Neutral	Working capital tied up equalled 22 days of sales (FY25: 50). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations. How to read: Information only. Lower is generally more efficient; negative means suppliers or customers fund the business.
32	Cash conversion cycle	236 days	Neutral	It took 236 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit. How to read: Information only. Shorter is generally better.
33	Debtor days	10 (FY25 10)	Neutral	Customers took 10 days on average to pay, versus 10 a year earlier. How to read: Caution when debtor days rose more than 20% in a year (collections stretching). Neutral otherwise.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹599 cr	Bullish	The business generated ₹599 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹425 crore in FY25. Bullish positive and higher than the year before · Bearish negative · Neutral when positive but lower. Information only for banks.
35	Free cash flow FY26	₹-346 cr	Bearish	After capital spending, free cash flow was ₹-346 crore. Bullish positive · Bearish negative · Neutral when not available.
36	Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)	1.58×	Bullish	Operating cash flow was 1.58× reported profit — profits were well backed by cash. Bullish above 1× (profits well backed by cash) · Caution below 0.7×. Neutral 0.7–1×.
37	Free-cash-flow yield	-2.7%	Neutral	FY26 free cash flow was -2.7% of the snapshot market cap. Bullish above 4% · Neutral at 4% or less.
38	Free cash flow — 3-year total	₹-844 cr	Bearish	Free cash flow over FY24–FY26 added up to ₹-844 crore. Bullish positive total · Bearish negative total · Neutral when not available.
39	Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)	₹945 cr	Neutral	Implied capital expenditure was about ₹945 crore, 15.1% of sales. How to read: Information only.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	19%	Neutral	The company paid out about 19% of FY26 profit as dividends. How to read: Information only. High payout suits mature businesses; growing firms often keep more.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	11% / 14% / 19%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year. Bullish paid every year · Neutral when irregular. Never tagged Bearish.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+0.0%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital changed +0.0% (₹20 cr → ₹20 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution. Bullish fell 1% or more (a buyback) · Caution when it rose 1% or more (new shares issued). Neutral when unchanged, or for a bonus/split.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	42.86% (-0.01 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 42.86% at Jun 2026 versus 42.87% a year earlier. Bearish fell more than 1 percentage point in a year · Neutral otherwise. Never tagged Bullish.
44	Foreign institutional holding	9.33% (-2.66 pts YoY)	Bearish	FIIs held 9.33% at Jun 2026, down from 11.99% a year before. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
45	Domestic institutional holding	29.09% (+1.07 pts YoY)	Bullish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 29.09%, up from 28.02%. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
46	Number of shareholders	1.9 lakh (-0.6% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 1.9 lakh to 1.9 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest. How to read: Information only — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares. How to read: Information only. Any sizeable pledge is a risk to note.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	4/8	Bearish	Passed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, CFO > net profit, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: leverage fell, operating margin improved, ROA improved, asset turnover improved. Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49	Automated screen flags	1 strength(s) · 5 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Company has reduced working capital requirements from 43.8 days to 21.8 days. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 3.12 times its book value; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 5.44% over past five years; Company has a low return on equity of 11.0% over last 3 years; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost; Dividend payout has been low at 14.6% of profits over last 3 years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.) How to read: Information only.
50	Fundamental summary	7 bullish · 7 bearish · 31 neutral · 4 caution	Neutral	On the numbers published by 24 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture was mixed. Valuation: P/E 34.1×, P/B 3.12×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 24 Apr 2026 – 24 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

24 Apr 2026 Balrampur Chini Mills announces Rs 160 crore lactogypsum processing plant at Kumbhi — The company announced a Rs 160 crore lactogypsum processing plant at its Kumbhi complex in Uttar Pradesh, alongside board approvals for a Rs 450 crore preferential issue at Rs 483 per share and up to Rs 200 crore of NCDs; the PLA project cost estimate was revised to Rs 3,080 crore from Rs 2,850 crore. source
11 May 2026 Balrampur Chini raises Rs 450 crore to fund new PLA and lactogypsum plants in UP — Report that the company is raising Rs 450 crore via a preferential share issue, with promoters investing nearly Rs 200 crore, to fund the lactogypsum plant, higher PLA capex and general corporate purposes. source
15 May 2026 Balrampur Chini Q4 FY26: FY revenue up 15.8% to Rs 6,271 crore; Q4 EBITDA falls 22% — Consolidated FY26 revenue was Rs 6,271.15 crore (+15.8%). Q4 EBITDA fell 22% to Rs 284.8 crore, which management attributed to an ~8% rise in state-mandated cane prices and weak distillery performance; PLA plant targeted to start in Q3 FY27. source
18 May 2026 Balrampur Chini Mills holds Q4 FY26 earnings call — Management held its Q4 and full-year FY26 earnings conference call on May 18, 2026. source
23 Jun 2026 Balrampur Chini Mills secures listing approval for 93.2 lakh preferential shares — NSE and BSE granted listing approval for 9,316,771 equity shares (face value Re 1) issued on a preferential basis to promoters and non-promoters at Rs 483 per share. source

What happened next (24 Jul 2026 → 23 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹610.15 to ₹639.90 by 23 Oct 2026 (+4.9%) while the Nifty 50 moved -4.9% — outperforming by 9.8 points.
Highest ₹780.95 on 20 Aug 2026; lowest ₹582.15 on 31 Jul 2026.
S1 555.20: held on a closing basis.
S2 530.34: held on a closing basis.
R1 641.95: cleared on a closing basis on 03 Aug 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 11 Aug 2026): revenue ₹1,637 crore (+6.2% YoY), net profit ₹44 crore (-15.4% YoY), operating margin 7% vs 9% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).

Later news

11 Aug 2026 Balrampur Chini Q1 FY27: net profit falls 14.5% to Rs 44.1 crore, margins contract — For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue rose 6% YoY to Rs 1,636.8 crore while net profit fell 14.5% to Rs 44.1 crore; EBITDA fell 15% to Rs 114 crore and margin narrowed to 6.96% from 8.71%. Vartika Shukla was appointed an additional independent director. source
20 Aug 2026 Balrampur Chini shares jump to record high as sugar prices rise — The stock rose as much as 13% intraday to a record high after the Centre capped sugar inventories for large bulk buyers at 15 days of consumption (Sep 1-Nov 30, 2026); ex-mill sugar prices were Rs 5,400-5,500/quintal vs about Rs 3,900 a year earlier. source
24 Sep 2026 Balrampur Chini Mills receives Rs 75 crore BioE3 grant for PLA co-polymer R&D facility — BIRAC under the Department of Biotechnology awarded INR 750 million in grant assistance for a 100 TPA PLA co-polymer pilot R&D facility at the company's Kumbhi complex in Uttar Pradesh. source
19 Oct 2026 Indian sugar stocks slide as government halts sugar diversion to ethanol — Sugar stocks including Balrampur Chini fell 2-6% in early trade after the government directed oil marketing companies to cut sugar diversion for ethanol to zero for the 2026/27 supply year, aiming to ease record-high sugar prices. source

Educational summary. On 24 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture was mixed. Over the next three months the stock moved +4.9% against -4.9% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Balrampur Chini Mills today.

Method designed by our founder, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 27 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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