IT infrastructure & digital servicesHistorical case study · data as of 24 Jul 2026 · published 27 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Black Box — 100-point case study
How Black Box looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 24 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 24 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope -1.26%/day
Bearish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 1.26% a day — a short-term downtrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +42.0%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.82%/day) and the stock was +42.0% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +51.7%
Bullish
Compared with a year earlier the price was +51.7%. A strong positive year.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 958.62 / 30W 686.89
Neutral
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 1,085.00→1,000.00; lows 946.90→903.70
Bearish
The two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
37.2
Bearish
ADX at 37.2 shows a strong trend in force. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 8.0 / –DI 31.6
Bearish
–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
894.46 (-13.0%)
Bearish
Close of 778.45 was 13.0% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
953.31 (-18.3%)
Bearish
Close of 778.45 was 18.3% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
644.90 (+20.7%)
Bullish
Close of 778.45 was 20.7% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 825.09 / 21E 877.21
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 08 Jul 2026.
The 50-day average was 47.8% above the 200-day. The most recent signal was a golden cross on 30 Apr 2026.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+12.0% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 12.0% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
894 / 953 / 754 / 645
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
894.12 (-12.9%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 894.12; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
27.3
Caution
RSI at 27.3 was oversold (≤30) — weak but stretched to the downside, where bounces often occur.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -44.93 / signal -28.76
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-17.03 → -16.17
Bullish
The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.10 (bands 749.89–1,039.03)
Neutral
%B of 0.10 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 32.3% (77th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 77th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹41.40 (5.3% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹41.40, or 5.3% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
36.0% vs 1Y 43.4%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 36.0%, close to the one-year level of 43.4%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
795.58–953.36
Bearish
The close was below the lower channel — a strong trending push.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.09
Neutral
A beta of 1.09 means the stock tended to move roughly in line with the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.65× / 5-day 1.00×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.65× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.00× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 0.91
Neutral
Average volume on up days was 0.91× that on down days — balanced.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV falling
Bearish
OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹30 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — moderately liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
541.65 / 519.06 / 491.24
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 541.65, 43.7% below the close, then 519.06, 491.24.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
966.00 / 1,000.00 / 1,085.00
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 966.00, 24.1% above the close, then 1,000.00, 1,085.00.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 845.82 | R1 932.63 | S1 691.63
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 845.82; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 948 | 38.2% 851 | 50.0% 774 | 61.8% 696
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month rise from 444.30 to 1,103.00, the close was nearest the 50.0% retracement at 773.65.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 1,103.00 / L 435.05
Neutral
The close was 29.4% below the 52-week high and 78.9% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
2 open; latest gap-up 28 Apr at 581.00
Neutral
There were 2 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 28 Apr 2026, left an open level at 581.00 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
pullback inside a larger uptrend
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: pullback inside a larger uptrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 759.00–1,012.90
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 759.00–1,012.90.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Doji
Neutral
On 24 Jul the candle opened 778.70, ranged 769.35–786.85 and closed 778.45: Doji — indecision. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 775.20–977.17; Tenkan 831.50 / Kijun 922.00
Neutral
Price was inside the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — an undecided Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -20.0% / 3M +43.7%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 43.7 points over three months and underperformed by 20.0 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty IT
3M +46.5%
Bullish
Against its sector index (Nifty IT) the stock was 46.5 points ahead over three months.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
8 bullish · 16 bearish · 21 neutral · 4 caution
Bearish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 541.65, resistance 966.00. This is a description of the chart on 24 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 24 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Jun 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 24 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
63.4×
Neutral
At ₹778.45 the market valued the company at about ₹13,827 crore, or 63.4× the ₹218 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
10.74×
Neutral
Market cap was 10.74× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹1,287 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
2.19×
Neutral
The company was valued at 2.19× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹6,323 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
26.3×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹1,153 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 26.3× trailing operating profit of ₹570 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
1.6%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹1.6 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
0.58
Bullish
P/E of 63.4 divided by 3-year profit growth of 108.6% a year gives a PEG of 0.58. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
0.13%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹1 a share, a 0.13% yield on the ₹778.45 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹13,827 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.14 lakh crore the company was a small-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹141.45 vs ₹778.45
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹141.45; the price was 450% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+5.9%
Neutral
Revenue for FY26 was ₹6,322 crore, +5.9% versus FY25.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
1 strength(s) · 4 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 34.6%. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 11.1 times its book value; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 6.23% over past five years; Tax rate seems low; Debtor days have increased from 41.2 to 66.6 days. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
10 bullish · 3 bearish · 33 neutral · 3 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 24 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 63.4×, P/B 10.74×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 24 Apr 2026 – 24 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
13 May 2026Black Box completes acquisition of Brazil's 2S Inovações Tecnológicas — Black Box said its acquisition of 100% of Brazil-based digital infrastructure and networking firm 2S Inovações Tecnológicas became effective May 1, 2026, strengthening its Latin America presence; the business is expected to add nearly Rs 500 crore in annualised revenue. source
26 May 2026Black Box reports Q4 FY26 results; FY26 order bookings cross $1 billion — Q4 FY26 revenue was Rs 1,691 crore (+9% YoY) and PAT Rs 65 crore (+7%). FY26 revenue was Rs 6,322 crore and PAT Rs 218 crore; order backlog ended at about $792 million (+57% YoY). The board recommended a final dividend of Rs 1 per share. source
26 May 2026Black Box board approves enabling resolution to raise up to Rs 2,500 crore — The board approved a general authority to raise up to Rs 2,500 crore through equity and debt instruments, subject to shareholder approval at an EGM scheduled for June 19, 2026. source
19 Jun 2026Black Box shareholders approve Rs 2,500 crore fundraise and higher borrowing limits — At the June 19, 2026 EGM, shareholders approved raising up to Rs 2,500 crore via securities issuance and passed a special resolution increasing borrowing limits and permitting creation of security over company assets. source
What happened next (24 Jul 2026 → 23 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹778.45 to ₹805.10 by 23 Oct 2026 (+3.4%) while the Nifty 50 moved -4.9% — outperforming by 8.3 points.
Highest ₹952.00 on 14 Oct 2026; lowest ₹709.15 on 02 Sep 2026.
S1 541.65: held on a closing basis.
S2 519.06: held on a closing basis.
R1 966.00: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 1,000.00: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 12 Aug 2026): revenue ₹1,718 crore (+23.9% YoY), net profit ₹56 crore (+19.1% YoY), operating margin 9% vs 8% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
12 Aug 2026Black Box board approves Q1 FY27 results; record date set for final dividend — Q1 FY27 revenue from operations was Rs 1,718.50 crore and net profit Rs 55.92 crore. The board proposed reclassifying authorised share capital, fixed the 40th AGM for September 16, 2026, and set August 28, 2026 as record date for the Rs 1 final dividend. Auditors noted FEMA-related delays in some import payments and export proceeds. source
13 Aug 2026Black Box shares rise up to 9% on Q1 earnings and Rs 1,240 crore US data centre order — Shares hit an intraday high of Rs 842 after the company reported Q1 revenue up 24% to Rs 1,718 crore and won a $131 million (about Rs 1,240 crore) order from a new US Tier-1 hyperscaler. Management guided FY27 order bookings of $1.3-1.5 billion. source
07 Sep 2026Black Box shares post biggest gain in 19 weeks despite weak market — The stock rose about 9% intraday to Rs 780 from Rs 712.15, with volume about 95% above its 20-day average, while the Sensex and Nifty declined. The report cited buying near the 200-day moving average and the recent data centre order. source
Educational summary. On 24 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved +3.4% against -4.9% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Black Box today.
Method designed by our founder, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 27 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50, Nifty IT via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
More case studies today
₹977.05close 24 Jul
Shrimp feed & seafood processingNSE: AVANTIFEEDData as of 24 Jul 2026