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Auto components & forgings Historical case study · data as of 10 Jul 2026 · published 13 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

Bharat Forge — 100-point case study

How Bharat Forge looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 10 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: BHARATFORG · BSE: 500493
Close on 10 Jul 2026	₹2,117.00
Market cap then	₹1,01,212 crore
Valuation	P/E 93.7× · P/B 10.56×
Momentum	RSI (14) 58 · 1-year return +71.4%
Next 3 months	-14.3% vs Nifty 50 -7.6% (to 12 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

25 bullish · 20 neutral · 0 caution · 4 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Fundamental — 50 points

11 bullish · 34 neutral · 1 caution · 3 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Data note: Screener did not show quarterly results or shareholding today. Quarterly figures are consolidated, from MarketsMojo and IndiaInfoline (Mar 2026 checked against the NSE filing); 'Other income' is derived and includes exceptional items and associates' share, so it is negative in recent quarters (Jun 2026 includes a ₹358 crore exceptional charge). Shareholding is from ScanX, cross-checked with MarketsMojo and Upstox. Daily prices come from equitypandit.com and stockanalysis.com.

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 10 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope +0.35%/day	Bullish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.35% a day — a short-term uptrend. Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return +18.8%	Bullish	The 100-session trend line was up (+0.20%/day) and the stock was +18.8% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish. Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return +71.4%	Bullish	Compared with a year earlier the price was +71.4%. A strong positive year. Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 2,007.30 / 30W 1,774.95	Bullish	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack. Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 1,988.50→2,238.00; lows 1,870.50→1,877.00	Bullish	The two most recent swing points showed higher swing highs and higher swing lows — classic uptrend structure. Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	28.2	Bullish	ADX at 28.2 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction. Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 21.0 / –DI 12.0	Bullish	+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure. Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	2,095.28 (+1.0%)	Bullish	Close of 2,117.00 was 1.0% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	1,989.79 (+6.4%)	Bullish	Close of 2,117.00 was 6.4% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	1,632.93 (+29.6%)	Bullish	Close of 2,117.00 was 29.6% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 2,119.03 / 21E 2,084.33	Bullish	The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 10 Apr 2026. Bullish 9-day above 21-day · Bearish 9-day below 21-day · No neutral zone.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bullish	The 50-day average was 21.9% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window. Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13	50-day SMA slope	+6.4% in 20 sessions	Bullish	The 50-day average rose 6.4% over the past month — rising. Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14	MA ribbon alignment	2,095 / 1,990 / 1,890 / 1,633	Bullish	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bullish (20 > 50 > 100 > 200). Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	2,126.88 (-0.5%)	Bearish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 2,126.88; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water. Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	58.3	Bullish	RSI at 58.3 showed positive momentum without being overbought. Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	none	Neutral	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price. Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD 44.40 / signal 51.15	Bearish	MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative. Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	2.62 → -6.74	Bearish	The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening. Bullish histogram rising (momentum improving) · Bearish histogram falling (momentum weakening) · No neutral zone.
20	MACD vs zero line	44.40	Bullish	MACD above zero means the 12-day EMA was above the 26-day EMA — a positive momentum regime. Bullish MACD above zero · Bearish MACD below zero · No neutral zone.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 43.3 / %D 45.9	Bearish	Slow stochastic at 43.3 was mid-range with %K below %D. Bullish between 20 and 80 with %K above %D · Bearish between 20 and 80 with %K below %D · Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
22	Williams %R (14)	-61.6	Neutral	%R of -61.6 put the close in the middle of its 14-day range. How to read: Caution above –20 (near the top) or below –80 (near the bottom). Neutral in the middle. This point is never tagged Bullish or Bearish.
23	CCI (20)	45	Neutral	CCI at 45 was within the normal ±100 band. Bullish above +100 (unusually strong upward move) · Bearish below –100 (unusually strong downward move) · Neutral within ±100.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	-1.3%	Neutral	Price changed -1.3% over ten sessions. Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.59 (bands 1,973.31–2,217.26)	Neutral	%B of 0.59 — inside the bands, upper half. How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 11.6% (40th pct of 6M)	Neutral	Band width was at the 40th percentile of the last six months, a normal level. How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27	ATR (14)	₹60.75 (2.9% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹60.75, or 2.9% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect. How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	23.3% vs 1Y 29.7%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 23.3%, below the one-year level of 29.7%. How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	1,966.10–2,209.14	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout. Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	1.27	Neutral	A beta of 1.27 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day. How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 0.35× / 5-day 0.47×	Neutral	The final session traded 0.35× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.47× — lighter than usual participation. How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 1.77	Bullish	Average volume on up days was 1.77× that on down days — accumulation-leaning. Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV rising	Bullish	OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move. Bullish OBV rising · Bearish OBV falling · No neutral zone.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	rising (20d)	Bullish	The A/D line rose, meaning closes tended to be in the upper part of daily ranges on meaningful volume. Bullish A/D line rising · Bearish A/D line falling · No neutral zone.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	0.12	Bullish	CMF at +0.12 indicated net inflows. Bullish above +0.05 (net inflows) · Bearish below –0.05 (net outflows) · Neutral between –0.05 and +0.05.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	71.8	Bullish	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 71.8. Bullish MFI 55–80 · Bearish MFI 20–45 · Neutral 45–55. Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹301 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹301 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid. How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	2,056.10 / 1,873.75 / 1,827.30	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 2,056.10, 3.0% below the close, then 1,873.75, 1,827.30. How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	2,176.10 / 2,238.00	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 2,176.10, 2.8% above the close, then 2,238.00. How to read: Information only.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 2,125.37 \| R1 2,167.73 \| S1 2,074.63	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 2,125.37; the close was below it. How to read: Information only.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 2,022 \| 38.2% 1,889 \| 50.0% 1,781 \| 61.8% 1,673	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month rise from 1,323.80 to 2,238.00, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 2,022.25. How to read: Information only.
42	52-week high / low	H 2,238.00 / L 1,100.50	Neutral	The close was 5.4% below the 52-week high and 92.4% above the 52-week low. Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	3 open; latest gap-up 08 Apr at 1,675.60	Neutral	There were 3 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 08 Apr 2026, left an open level at 1,675.60 that price had not revisited. How to read: Information only.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	rising channel	Bullish	Rule-based pattern scan: rising channel — successive higher highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.) Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 1,912.20–2,238.00	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 1,912.20–2,238.00. Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary red candle	Neutral	On 10 Jul the candle opened 2,143.40, ranged 2,108.10–2,159.90 and closed 2,117.00: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own. Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 1,827.10–1,925.72; Tenkan 2,116.10 / Kijun 2,057.50	Bullish	Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup. Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M +4.3% / 3M +18.0%	Bullish	The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 18.0 points over three months and outperformed by 4.3 points over one month. Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M +50.7%	Bullish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 50.7 points ahead of the Nifty 50. Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50	Technical summary	25 bullish · 4 bearish · 20 neutral · 0 caution	Bullish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 2,056.10, resistance 2,176.10. This is a description of the chart on 10 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 10 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 10 Jul 2026 close.

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	93.7×	Neutral	At ₹2,117.00 the market valued the company at about ₹1,01,212 crore, or 93.7× the ₹1,080 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth. How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2	Price / Book	10.56×	Neutral	Market cap was 10.56× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹9,580 crore. How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3	Price / Sales	6.02×	Neutral	The company was valued at 6.02× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹16,812 crore. How to read: Information only.
4	EV / EBITDA (approx.)	37.1×	Neutral	Enterprise value (market cap + ₹7,309 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 37.1× trailing operating profit of ₹2,927 crore. How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5	Earnings yield	1.1%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹1.1 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds. How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	3.24	Bearish	P/E of 93.7 divided by 3-year profit growth of 28.9% a year gives a PEG of 3.24. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	0.31%	Neutral	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹6.5 a share, a 0.31% yield on the ₹2,117.00 price. Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8	Market capitalisation	₹1,01,212 cr	Neutral	At about ₹1.01 lakh crore the company was a large-cap. How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9	Graham number vs price	₹319.09 vs ₹2,117.00	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹319.09; the price was 563% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number. Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+11.2%	Bullish	Revenue for FY26 was ₹16,812 crore, +11.2% versus FY25. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% (revenue fell) · Neutral 0–10%.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+17.5%	Bullish	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹4,528 crore of revenue, +17.5% on the same quarter a year earlier. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+19.3%	Bullish	FY26 net profit was ₹1,089 crore, +19.3% on FY25's ₹913 crore. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%. Caution if a one-off item distorted the figure.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	-17.5%	Bearish	Quarterly profit was ₹233 crore versus ₹282 crore a year earlier (-17.5%). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	9.2%	Neutral	Revenue compounded at 9.2% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	28.9%	Bullish	Net profit compounded at 28.9% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	21.6%	Bullish	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 21.6% a year. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+14.7%	Bullish	Reported EPS went from ₹19.69 to ₹22.58 (+14.7%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Operating margin FY26	17%	Neutral	Operating profit (EBITDA) was 17% of sales in FY26 versus 18% in FY25. How to read: Information only — normal margins differ a lot by industry.
19	Operating margin trend (4 quarters)	17% → 18% → 17% → 17%	Neutral	Quarterly margins moved from 17% to 17% over the last four quarters — broadly stable. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral when broadly stable.
20	Net profit margin FY26	6.5%	Neutral	₹6.5 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26. How to read: Information only.
21	Return on equity FY26	11.6%	Neutral	FY26 profit was 11.6% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak. Bullish above 18% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–18%. Around 15% or more is generally considered good.
22	ROCE FY26	13%	Neutral	Return on capital employed (debt + equity) was 13% in FY26. Bullish above 20% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–20%.
23	Return on assets FY26	4.90%	Neutral	Net profit was 4.90% of total assets. Bullish banks only: 1.5% or more · Bearish banks only: below 1% · Information only for non-banks.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	35%	Neutral	The company paid about 35% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%. How to read: Information only. India’s base corporate rate is about 25%.
25	Other income share of pre-tax profit	3%	Neutral	Non-operating 'other income' of ₹44 crore made up 3% of pre-tax profit. How to read: Caution above 25% (headline profit leans on non-core income). Neutral otherwise.

D. Balance sheet

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Debt / equity	0.76	Neutral	Borrowings of ₹7,309 crore were 0.76× equity — moderate leverage. Bullish below 0.3 (very low leverage) · Bearish above 1 (high leverage) · Neutral 0.3–1.
27	Debt / EBITDA	2.51×	Neutral	Debt equalled 2.51 years of FY26 operating profit. Bullish below 1× · Bearish above 3× · Neutral 1–3×.
28	Interest coverage	6.2×	Neutral	Earnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 6.2 times. Bullish above 8× · Bearish below 3× · Neutral 3–8×, or not meaningful when interest is negligible.
29	Book value growth	+3.5%	Neutral	Shareholders' equity grew +3.5% from ₹9,254 crore to ₹9,580 crore in FY26. Bullish above 10% (banks: above 12%) · Bearish below 0% (non-banks only) · Neutral otherwise.
30	Capital work in progress	₹1,298 cr (16% of fixed assets)	Neutral	Projects under construction (CWIP) were 16% of fixed assets — a modest pipeline. How to read: Information only. Above 20% means a big expansion pipeline that is not yet earning.
31	Working capital days	-12 days	Neutral	Working capital tied up equalled -12 days of sales (FY25: -27). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations. How to read: Information only. Lower is generally more efficient; negative means suppliers or customers fund the business.
32	Cash conversion cycle	136 days	Neutral	It took 136 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit. How to read: Information only. Shorter is generally better.
33	Debtor days	85 (FY25 70)	Caution	Customers took 85 days on average to pay, versus 70 a year earlier — a notable stretch in collections. How to read: Caution when debtor days rose more than 20% in a year (collections stretching). Neutral otherwise.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹1,487 cr	Neutral	The business generated ₹1,487 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹1,796 crore in FY25. Bullish positive and higher than the year before · Bearish negative · Neutral when positive but lower. Information only for banks.
35	Free cash flow FY26	₹374 cr	Bullish	After capital spending, free cash flow was ₹374 crore. Bullish positive · Bearish negative · Neutral when not available.
36	Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)	1.37×	Bullish	Operating cash flow was 1.37× reported profit — profits were well backed by cash. Bullish above 1× (profits well backed by cash) · Caution below 0.7×. Neutral 0.7–1×.
37	Free-cash-flow yield	0.4%	Neutral	FY26 free cash flow was 0.4% of the snapshot market cap. Bullish above 4% · Neutral at 4% or less.
38	Free cash flow — 3-year total	₹890 cr	Bullish	Free cash flow over FY24–FY26 added up to ₹890 crore. Bullish positive total · Bearish negative total · Neutral when not available.
39	Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)	₹1,113 cr	Neutral	Implied capital expenditure was about ₹1,113 crore, 6.6% of sales. How to read: Information only.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	38%	Neutral	The company paid out about 38% of FY26 profit as dividends. How to read: Information only. High payout suits mature businesses; growing firms often keep more.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	44% / 43% / 38%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year. Bullish paid every year · Neutral when irregular. Never tagged Bearish.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+0.0%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital changed +0.0% (₹96 cr → ₹96 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution. Bullish fell 1% or more (a buyback) · Caution when it rose 1% or more (new shares issued). Neutral when unchanged, or for a bonus/split.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	44.07% (+0.00 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 44.07% at Mar 2026 versus 44.07% a year earlier. Bearish fell more than 1 percentage point in a year · Neutral otherwise. Never tagged Bullish.
44	Foreign institutional holding	14.15% (-1.92 pts YoY)	Bearish	FIIs held 14.15% at Mar 2026, down from 16.07% a year before. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
45	Domestic institutional holding	32.76% (+2.41 pts YoY)	Bullish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 32.76%, up from 30.35%. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
46	Number of shareholders	2.3 lakh (+6.3% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 2.1 lakh to 2.3 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest. How to read: Information only — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares. How to read: Information only. Any sizeable pledge is a risk to note.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	6/8	Neutral	Passed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, CFO > net profit, leverage fell, ROA improved, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: operating margin improved, asset turnover improved. Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49	Automated screen flags	2 strength(s) · 3 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Company has delivered good profit growth of 38.6% CAGR over last 5 years; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 41.6%. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 11.0 times its book value; Company has a low return on equity of 12.2% over last 3 years; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.) How to read: Information only.
50	Fundamental summary	11 bullish · 3 bearish · 34 neutral · 1 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 10 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 93.7×, P/B 10.56×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 10 Apr 2026 – 10 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

07 May 2026 Bharat Forge reports Q4 and FY26 results with Rs 6.50 final dividend — Board announced FY26 results: consolidated revenue about Rs 16,811 crore; Q4 consolidated net profit about Rs 233 crore, down about 17% year on year; a final dividend of Rs 6.50 per share was recommended. source
07 May 2026 Management outlines FY27 growth outlook for Indian operations — CMD Baba Kalyani said the company expects nearly 25% revenue growth in Indian manufacturing operations in FY27; defence order book stood at Rs 10,961 crore at FY26 end. source
04 Jun 2026 Record date fixed for Rs 6.50 final dividend — Record date for the FY26 final dividend set as 3 July 2026; AGM on 11 August 2026; payment on or after 14 August 2026. source
20 Jun 2026 Indian Navy contract worth Rs 425 crore for marine gas turbine generator sets — Ministry of Defence signed a contract with Bharat Forge for twelve 1.25 MW marine gas turbine generator sets, to be completed over five years with at least 60% local content. source

What happened next (10 Jul 2026 → 12 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹2,117.00 to ₹1,815.30 by 12 Oct 2026 (-14.3%) while the Nifty 50 moved -7.6% — underperforming by 6.6 points.
Highest ₹2,295.00 on 10 Aug 2026; lowest ₹1,773.20 on 09 Oct 2026.
S1 2,056.10: broken on a closing basis on 11 Aug 2026.
S2 1,873.75: broken on a closing basis on 05 Oct 2026.
R1 2,176.10: cleared on a closing basis on 17 Jul 2026.
R2 2,238.00: cleared on a closing basis on 07 Aug 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 05 Oct 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 10 Aug 2026): revenue ₹4,640 crore (+18.7% YoY), net profit ₹-90 crore (-131.6% YoY), operating margin 15% vs 17% a year earlier (figures from the sources listed in the data note).

Later news

22 Jul 2026 MoU with Flying Whales for heavy-lift airships in India — Bharat Forge's aerospace division signed an MoU with Flying Whales at Farnborough Airshow 2026 to set up manufacturing and integration of the LCA60T 60-tonne airship in India. source
23 Jul 2026 Kalyani Powertrain agrees to sell 50% stake in REFU Drive — Subsidiary agreed on 22 July 2026 to sell its 50% holding in German JV REFU Drive GmbH to REFU Elektronik for EUR 12,500; completion expected within six weeks. source
05 Aug 2026 Board meeting set for 10 August to consider Q1 results and fund raising — Company intimated a board meeting on 10 August 2026 to approve June-quarter results and consider raising capital through equity, debt or convertible securities. source
10 Aug 2026 Q1 FY27: consolidated net loss of Rs 90 crore on Rs 358 crore exceptional item — Consolidated revenue rose 18.7% to about Rs 4,640 crore; EBITDA about Rs 709 crore; standalone net profit about Rs 321 crore (down 5%). Board approved raising up to Rs 2,500 crore. Shares closed 6.76% lower at Rs 2,112 per the report (NSE close in price data: 2,093.10). source
02 Sep 2026 Kalyani Powertrain completes exit from REFU Drive joint venture — Company disclosed completion of transfer of the 50% stake in REFU Drive GmbH to REFU Elektronik; the stock closed about 1.8% lower that day per the report. source
04 Sep 2026 Kalyani Strategic Systems partners with Thales on 70-mm rockets — KSSL signed a strategic alliance with Thales to manufacture 70-mm rocket systems in India, first rocket targeted for early 2027; defence order book Rs 11,196 crore at 30 June 2026. source

Educational summary. On 10 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -14.3% against -7.6% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Bharat Forge today.

Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 13 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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