Biologics & biosimilarsHistorical case study · data as of 10 Jul 2026 · published 13 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Biocon — 100-point case study
How Biocon looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 10 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
9 bullish · 31 neutral · 1 caution · 8 bearish — the picture was mixed.
Price chart
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Screener did not show quarterly results or shareholding today. Quarterly figures are consolidated, from MarketsMojo cross-checked against Biocon's own fact sheets and press release; profit is shown including minority interest. Shareholding is from Value Research (only from Jun 2025). Daily prices come from equitypandit.com (cross-checked with stockanalysis.com and Investing.com), so no dividend-adjusted close is available. 14 Jul 2026 saw large block deals (reported Mylan stake sale).
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 10 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope -0.07%/day
Neutral
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.07% a day — a flat, sideways phase.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +19.6%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.14%/day) and the stock was +19.6% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +12.4%
Bullish
Compared with a year earlier the price was +12.4%. A strong positive year.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 417.77 / 30W 388.87
Bullish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 440.40→432.15; lows 405.80→406.75
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
14.6
Neutral
ADX at 14.6 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 22.8 / –DI 21.1
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
416.06 (+0.6%)
Bullish
Close of 418.50 was 0.6% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
411.79 (+1.6%)
Bullish
Close of 418.50 was 1.6% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
384.57 (+8.8%)
Bullish
Close of 418.50 was 8.8% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 413.04 / 21E 414.60
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 08 Jul 2026.
The 50-day average was 7.1% above the 200-day. The most recent signal was a golden cross on 20 May 2026.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+6.3% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 6.3% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
416 / 412 / 392 / 385
Bullish
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bullish (20 > 50 > 100 > 200).
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
415.89 (+0.6%)
Bullish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 415.89; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
53.2
Neutral
RSI at 53.2 was in the neutral 45–55 zone.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -0.25 / signal 1.42
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-0.09 → -1.67
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.59 (bands 402.02–430.11)
Neutral
%B of 0.59 — inside the bands, upper half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 6.8% (26th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 26th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹11.90 (2.8% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹11.90, or 2.8% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
23.2% vs 1Y 26.2%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 23.2%, close to the one-year level of 26.2%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
389.79–439.46
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
0.78
Neutral
A beta of 0.78 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 1.12× / 5-day 1.03×
Neutral
The final session traded 1.12× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.03× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.02
Neutral
Average volume on up days was 1.02× that on down days — balanced.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹161 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
407.92 / 391.30 / 384.60
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 407.92, 2.6% below the close, then 391.30, 384.60.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
424.25 / 435.30
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 424.25, 1.4% above the close, then 435.30.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 415.03 | R1 435.22 | S1 398.32
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 415.03; the close was above it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 416 | 38.2% 401 | 50.0% 389 | 61.8% 377
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month rise from 337.70 to 440.40, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 416.16.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 440.40 / L 331.00
Bullish
The close was 5.0% below the 52-week high and 26.4% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
2 open; latest gap-up 06 May at 370.90
Neutral
There were 2 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 06 May 2026, left an open level at 370.90 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
pullback inside a larger uptrend
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: pullback inside a larger uptrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 394.85–432.15
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 394.85–432.15.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary green candle
Neutral
On 10 Jul the candle opened 407.20, ranged 404.00–419.80 and closed 418.50: Ordinary green candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 389.05–410.41; Tenkan 413.30 / Kijun 413.50
Bullish
Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -3.3% / 3M +18.8%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 18.8 points over three months and underperformed by 3.3 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M +13.9%
Bullish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 13.9 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
18 bullish · 6 bearish · 25 neutral · 0 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 407.92, resistance 424.25. This is a description of the chart on 10 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 10 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 10 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
184.1×
Neutral
At ₹418.50 the market valued the company at about ₹67,906 crore, or 184.1× the ₹369 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
2.00×
Neutral
Market cap was 2.00× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹34,031 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
4.01×
Neutral
The company was valued at 4.01× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹16,927 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
24.1×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹15,434 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 24.1× trailing operating profit of ₹3,455 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
0.5%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹0.5 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
n/m
Neutral
PEG is not meaningful because 3-year profit growth was -16.9%.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
0.12%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹0.5 a share, a 0.12% yield on the ₹418.50 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹67,906 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.68 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹103.56 vs ₹418.50
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹103.56; the price was 304% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+10.9%
Bullish
Revenue for FY26 was ₹16,927 crore, +10.9% versus FY25.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
0 strength(s) · 5 weakness(es)
Neutral
No strengths flagged. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; Promoter holding has decreased over last quarter: -9.54%; Company has a low return on equity of 3.51% over last 3 years; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost; Dividend payout has been low at 10.9% of profits over last 3 years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
9 bullish · 8 bearish · 31 neutral · 1 caution
Neutral
On the numbers published by 10 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture was mixed. Valuation: P/E 184.1×, P/B 2.00×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 10 Apr 2026 – 10 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
21 Apr 2026Health Canada grants approval for two Biocon denosumab biosimilars — Biocon announced Health Canada issued a Notice of Compliance for denosumab biosimilars BOSAYA and VEVZUA, referencing Amgen's Prolia and Xgeva (item as listed in a Goodwin biosimilars roundup). source
08 May 2026Biocon reports Q4 FY26 results; board recommends final dividend — Consolidated Q4 net profit was Rs 198.6 crore versus Rs 459.4 crore a year earlier after an exceptional item of Rs 80.4 crore; revenue from operations was Rs 4,516.6 crore. The board recommended a Rs 0.50 per share final dividend with a 3 July 2026 record date. source
08 May 2026Biocon FY26 revenue crosses Rs 16,900 crore on biosimilar growth — FY26 operating revenue was Rs 16,927 crore; biosimilars revenue was Rs 10,431 crore, up 16%, and the company said it completed integration of its biosimilars and generics businesses. source
03 Jul 2026Record date for Biocon final dividend of Rs 0.50 per share — Dividend of Rs 0.50 per share for FY2025-26 listed with 3 July 2026 as the date, payable by 31 August 2026. source
What happened next (10 Jul 2026 → 12 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹418.50 to ₹346.35 by 12 Oct 2026 (-17.2%) while the Nifty 50 moved -7.6% — underperforming by 9.6 points.
Highest ₹447.15 on 16 Jul 2026; lowest ₹343.95 on 09 Oct 2026.
S1 407.92: broken on a closing basis on 01 Sep 2026.
S2 391.30: broken on a closing basis on 11 Sep 2026.
R1 424.25: cleared on a closing basis on 14 Jul 2026.
R2 435.30: cleared on a closing basis on 14 Jul 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 07 Sep 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 05 Aug 2026): revenue ₹4,336 crore (+10.0% YoY), net profit ₹137 crore (+53.4% YoY), operating margin 20% vs 19% a year earlier (figures from the sources listed in the data note).
Later news
14 Jul 2026Block deals in Biocon: reported Mylan stake sale of up to 5.64% — About 4.6 crore shares traded on each of NSE and BSE at Rs 400 (Rs 1,839 crore per exchange); the seller was reported as Mylan (Viatris unit) per sources; shares rose about 5% intraday to Rs 430.95. source
03 Aug 2026Biocon launches aflibercept biosimilar YESAFILI in the US — Biocon announced US commercial launch of YESAFILI (aflibercept-jbvf), a biosimilar to Regeneron's EYLEA 2 mg, following a 2025 settlement; reported by Goodwin on 21 Aug 2026. source
05 Aug 2026Biocon reports Q1 FY27 results — Consolidated revenue from operations rose 10% to Rs 4,336 crore and net profit was Rs 141 crore versus Rs 31 crore a year earlier; biosimilars revenue rose 16% to Rs 2,855 crore while research services fell 16% to Rs 736 crore; finance costs fell 23%. (Results date 5 Aug per Trendlyne listing; coverage published 6 Aug.) source
25 Aug 2026Biocon Biologics gets Japan approval for pegfilgrastim biosimilar — Japan's MHLW approved Biocon Biologics' pegfilgrastim biosimilar (reference: Neulasta); Sandoz K.K. will be the exclusive marketing partner in Japan. source
31 Aug 2026Biocon schedules virtual analyst meeting for 4 September — Under SEBI Regulation 30(6), Biocon announced a virtual meeting with analysts and credit investors on 4 Sept 2026 as part of the Nomura Asian Credit Corporate Day; no unpublished price-sensitive information to be shared. source
Educational summary. On 10 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture was mixed. Over the next three months the stock moved -17.2% against -7.6% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Biocon today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 13 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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₹514.00close 10 Jul
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