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NBFC (consumer & business loans) Historical case study · data as of 13 Jul 2026 · published 16 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

HDB Financial Services — 100-point case study

How HDB Financial Services looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 13 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: HDBFS · BSE: 544429
Close on 13 Jul 2026	₹756.25
Market cap then	₹62,813 crore
Valuation	P/E 24.7× · P/B 3.04×
Momentum	RSI (14) 66 · 1-year return -10.6%
Next 3 months	-28.7% vs Nifty 50 -5.0% (to 15 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

22 bullish · 20 neutral · 3 caution · 4 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Fundamental — 50 points

13 bullish · 34 neutral · 1 caution · 1 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Data note: Listed on 2 July 2025, so price history before the snapshot is about one year (253 trading days). Screener had no quarterly or shareholding tables for this stock; quarterly figures come from stockanalysis.com (some rows n/a) and shareholding from Upstox. Lender metrics (stage-3 assets, NIM, CRAR) are from the company's results releases; the Q1 FY27 CRAR comes from a secondary summary.

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 13 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope +0.35%/day	Bullish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.35% a day — a short-term uptrend. Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return +22.2%	Bullish	The 100-session trend line was up (+0.07%/day) and the stock was +22.2% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish. Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return -10.6%	Bearish	Compared with a year earlier the price was -10.6%. A weak year for the stock. Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 699.77 / 30W 691.83	Bullish	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack. Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 694.10→759.80; lows 654.05→613.20	Neutral	The two most recent swing points showed a higher high but a lower low — mixed structure. Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	31.0	Bullish	ADX at 31.0 shows a strong trend in force. ADX measures strength only, not direction. Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 26.9 / –DI 14.8	Bullish	+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure. Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	732.37 (+3.3%)	Bullish	Close of 756.25 was 3.3% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	690.52 (+9.5%)	Bullish	Close of 756.25 was 9.5% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	709.79 (+6.5%)	Bullish	Close of 756.25 was 6.5% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 742.85 / 21E 725.79	Bullish	The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 16 Jun 2026. Bullish 9-day above 21-day · Bearish 9-day below 21-day · No neutral zone.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bearish	The 50-day average was 2.7% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window. Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13	50-day SMA slope	+5.8% in 20 sessions	Bullish	The 50-day average rose 5.8% over the past month — rising. Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14	MA ribbon alignment	732 / 691 / 675 / 710	Neutral	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range. Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	742.26 (+1.9%)	Bullish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 742.26; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit. Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	66.2	Bullish	RSI at 66.2 showed positive momentum without being overbought. Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	none	Neutral	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price. Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD 19.34 / signal 19.65	Bearish	MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative. Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	1.61 → -0.31	Bearish	The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening. Bullish histogram rising (momentum improving) · Bearish histogram falling (momentum weakening) · No neutral zone.
20	MACD vs zero line	19.34	Bullish	MACD above zero means the 12-day EMA was above the 26-day EMA — a positive momentum regime. Bullish MACD above zero · Bearish MACD below zero · No neutral zone.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 83.2 / %D 72.7	Caution	Slow stochastic at 83.2 was in overbought territory (>80). Bullish between 20 and 80 with %K above %D · Bearish between 20 and 80 with %K below %D · Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
22	Williams %R (14)	-7.6	Caution	%R of -7.6 put the close near the top of its 14-day range. How to read: Caution above –20 (near the top) or below –80 (near the bottom). Neutral in the middle. This point is never tagged Bullish or Bearish.
23	CCI (20)	93	Neutral	CCI at 93 was within the normal ±100 band. Bullish above +100 (unusually strong upward move) · Bearish below –100 (unusually strong downward move) · Neutral within ±100.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	+0.5%	Neutral	Price changed +0.5% over ten sessions. Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.80 (bands 693.05–771.68)	Neutral	%B of 0.80 — inside the bands, upper half. How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 10.7% (37th pct of 6M)	Neutral	Band width was at the 37th percentile of the last six months, a normal level. How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27	ATR (14)	₹20.10 (2.7% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹20.10, or 2.7% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect. How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	32.1% vs 1Y 25.6%	Caution	Annualised 30-day volatility was 32.1%, well above the one-year level of 25.6%. How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	687.03–767.29	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout. Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	1.12	Neutral	A beta of 1.12 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day. How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 0.44× / 5-day 0.51×	Neutral	The final session traded 0.44× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.51× — lighter than usual participation. How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 3.37	Bullish	Average volume on up days was 3.37× that on down days — accumulation-leaning. Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV rising	Bullish	OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move. Bullish OBV rising · Bearish OBV falling · No neutral zone.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	rising (20d)	Bullish	The A/D line rose, meaning closes tended to be in the upper part of daily ranges on meaningful volume. Bullish A/D line rising · Bearish A/D line falling · No neutral zone.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	0.24	Bullish	CMF at +0.24 indicated net inflows. Bullish above +0.05 (net inflows) · Bearish below –0.05 (net outflows) · Neutral between –0.05 and +0.05.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	75.2	Bullish	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 75.2. Bullish MFI 55–80 · Bearish MFI 20–45 · Neutral 45–55. Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹82 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹82 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid. How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	734.89 / 704.42 / 686.52	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 734.89, 2.9% below the close, then 704.42, 686.52. How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	772.33	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 772.33, 2.1% above the close. How to read: Information only.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 742.95 \| R1 772.85 \| S1 726.35	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 742.95; the close was above it. How to read: Information only.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 610 \| 38.2% 645 \| 50.0% 672 \| 61.8% 700	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month fall from 788.95 to 555.30, the close was nearest the 61.8% retracement at 699.70. How to read: Information only.
42	52-week high / low	H 863.80 / L 555.30	Neutral	The close was 12.5% below the 52-week high and 36.2% above the 52-week low. Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	2 open; latest gap-up 15 Jun at 647.10	Neutral	There were 2 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 15 Jun 2026, left an open level at 647.10 that price had not revisited. How to read: Information only.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	rising channel	Bullish	Rule-based pattern scan: rising channel — successive higher highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.) Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 627.10–759.80	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 627.10–759.80. Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary green candle	Neutral	On 13 Jul the candle opened 749.00, ranged 743.00–758.95 and closed 756.25: Ordinary green candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own. Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 639.62–670.77; Tenkan 736.30 / Kijun 686.50	Bullish	Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup. Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M +16.8% / 3M +20.3%	Bullish	The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 20.3 points over three months and outperformed by 16.8 points over one month. Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M +6.2%	Bullish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 6.2 points ahead of the Nifty 50. Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50	Technical summary	22 bullish · 4 bearish · 20 neutral · 3 caution	Bullish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 734.89, resistance 772.33. This is a description of the chart on 13 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 13 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 13 Jul 2026 close.

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	24.7×	Neutral	At ₹756.25 the market valued the company at about ₹62,813 crore, or 24.7× the ₹2,544 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple. How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2	Price / Book	3.04×	Neutral	Market cap was 3.04× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹20,664 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick. How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3	Price / Revenue (interest earned)	3.41×	Neutral	Market cap was 3.41× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹18,430 crore. How to read: Information only.
4	Profit / Book (earnings power)	12.3%	Neutral	Trailing profit was 12.3% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 3.04× for. How to read: Information only.
5	Earnings yield	4.0%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹4.0 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds. How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	2.71	Bearish	P/E of 24.7 divided by 3-year profit growth of 9.1% a year gives a PEG of 2.71. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	0.53%	Neutral	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹4 a share, a 0.53% yield on the ₹756.25 price. Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8	Market capitalisation	₹62,813 cr	Neutral	At about ₹0.63 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap. How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9	Graham number vs price	₹414.03 vs ₹756.25	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹414.03; the price was 83% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number. Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+13.1%	Bullish	Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹18,430 crore, +13.1% versus FY25. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% (revenue fell) · Neutral 0–10%.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+11.2%	Bullish	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹4,745 crore of revenue, +11.2% on the same quarter a year earlier. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+16.9%	Bullish	FY26 net profit was ₹2,544 crore, +16.9% on FY25's ₹2,176 crore. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%. Caution if a one-off item distorted the figure.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	+41.4%	Bullish	Quarterly profit was ₹751 crore versus ₹531 crore a year earlier (+41.4%). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	14.1%	Bullish	Revenue compounded at 14.1% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	9.1%	Neutral	Net profit compounded at 9.1% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	11.0%	Neutral	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 11.0% a year. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+12.1%	Bullish	Reported EPS went from ₹27.34 to ₹30.64 (+12.1%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Net interest margin (Q4 FY26)	8.23%	Bullish	NIM — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was 8.23% in Jan–Mar 2026 (as reported). Above ~3.5% is strong for an Indian bank. Bullish 3.5% or more · Bearish below 3.0% · Neutral 3.0–3.5%.
19	Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)	+21.6%	Bullish	Core interest income after interest expense was ₹2,399 crore, +21.6% year on year (standalone, as reported). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 5% · Neutral 5–10%.
20	Net profit margin FY26	13.8%	Neutral	₹13.8 of every ₹100 of interest-led revenue ended up as net profit in FY26. How to read: Information only.
21	Return on equity FY26	13.9%	Neutral	FY26 profit was 13.9% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak. Bullish above 18% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–18%. Around 15% or more is generally considered good.
22	Leverage (assets ÷ equity)	6.0×	Neutral	Total assets were 6.0× equity — normal for banks, which fund most assets with deposits. How to read: Information only — banks normally run high leverage.
23	Return on assets FY26	2.06%	Bullish	Net profit was 2.06% of total assets. For banks, ROA above 1% is considered healthy. Bullish banks only: 1.5% or more · Bearish banks only: below 1% · Information only for non-banks.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	25%	Neutral	The company paid about 25% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%. How to read: Information only. India’s base corporate rate is about 25%.
25	Q4 FY26 standalone profit (reported)	₹751 cr (+41.4%)	Bullish	The bank's own (standalone) Jan–Mar 2026 profit as reported was ₹751 crore, +41.4% year on year. Bullish above 12% year on year · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–12%.

D. Asset quality & capital

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Gross NPA (Q4 FY26)	2.44%	Neutral	Gross non-performing assets were 2.44% of loans — elevated. Bullish below 2% · Bearish above 4% · Neutral 2–4%.
27	Net NPA (Q4 FY26)	1.09%	Neutral	After provisions, net NPAs were 1.09% of loans. Bullish below 0.6% · Bearish above 1.5% · Neutral 0.6–1.5%.
28	CASA ratio	n/a	Neutral	Not reported in our sources for this period. Bullish above 40% · Bearish below 30% · Neutral 30–40%.
29	Capital adequacy (CRAR)	21.40%	Bullish	Capital adequacy was 21.40%, comfortably above the RBI minimum of 11.5% (incl. buffer). Bullish above 16% · Bearish below 13% · Neutral 13–16%. RBI minimum incl. buffer is 11.5%.
30	Loan (advances) growth	+10.7%	Neutral	Advances grew +10.7% year on year (as reported). Bullish above 14% · Bearish below 8% · Neutral 8–14%.
31	Deposit growth	n/a	Neutral	Not reported in our sources for this period. Bullish above 12% · Bearish below 7% · Neutral 7–12%.
32	Borrowings (consolidated)	₹99,230 cr	Neutral	Borrowings were ₹99,230 crore at Mar 2026 — lenders that don't take deposits fund their loans this way. How to read: Information only.
33	Book value growth	+30.6%	Bullish	Equity grew +30.6% to ₹20,664 crore — banks need book growth to support loan growth. Bullish above 10% (banks: above 12%) · Bearish below 0% (non-banks only) · Neutral otherwise.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹-8,606 cr	Neutral	Operating cash flow was ₹-8,606 crore. For banks this swings with deposit and loan flows, so it says little about profitability. Bullish positive and higher than the year before · Bearish negative · Neutral when positive but lower. Information only for banks.
35	Investing cash flow FY26	₹-1,772 cr	Neutral	Investing flows for banks mostly reflect securities and fixed-asset purchases. How to read: Information only — for banks these swing with deposit and loan flows.
36	Financing cash flow FY26	₹10,673 cr	Neutral	Financing flows reflect borrowings raised/repaid and dividends paid. How to read: Information only — for banks these swing with deposit and loan flows.
37	Net cash flow FY26	₹296 cr	Neutral	Overall cash and balances changed by ₹296 crore in FY26. How to read: Information only — for banks these swing with deposit and loan flows.
38	Investment book growth	+81.9%	Neutral	The investment portfolio (mostly government securities) moved +81.9% to ₹3,748 crore. How to read: Information only.
39	Loan growth minus deposit growth	n/a	Neutral	Not available. How to read: Caution when loans grew more than 4 points faster than deposits (funding pressure). Neutral otherwise.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	13%	Neutral	The company paid out about 13% of FY26 profit as dividends. How to read: Information only. High payout suits mature businesses; growing firms often keep more.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	10% / 11% / 13%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year. Bullish paid every year · Neutral when irregular. Never tagged Bearish.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+4.3%	Caution	Paid-up equity capital changed +4.3% (₹796 cr → ₹830 cr). A fall indicates a buyback; a rise indicates new shares were issued. Bullish fell 1% or more (a buyback) · Caution when it rose 1% or more (new shares issued). Neutral when unchanged, or for a bonus/split.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	74.12% (+0.00 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 74.12% at Mar 2026 versus 74.12% a year earlier. Bearish fell more than 1 percentage point in a year · Neutral otherwise. Never tagged Bullish.
44	Foreign institutional holding	3.01% (-0.54 pts YoY)	Neutral	FIIs held 3.01% at Mar 2026, down from 3.55% a year before. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
45	Domestic institutional holding	12.28% (+0.18 pts YoY)	Neutral	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 12.28%, up from 12.10%. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
46	Number of shareholders	n/a	Neutral	Not available in our sources for this period. How to read: Information only — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares. How to read: Information only. Any sizeable pledge is a risk to note.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	6/8	Neutral	Passed: positive profit, profit grew, ROA ≥ 1%, gross NPA < 3%, CRAR ≥ 14%, ROE ≥ 12%. Failed: net NPA < 1%, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49	Automated screen flags	0 strength(s) · 5 weakness(es)	Neutral	No strengths flagged. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 2.72 times its book value; Company has low interest coverage ratio; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 11.0% over past five years; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost; Dividend payout has been low at 11.2% of profits over last 3 years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.) How to read: Information only.
50	Fundamental summary	13 bullish · 1 bearish · 34 neutral · 1 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 13 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 24.7×, P/B 3.04×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 13 Apr 2026 – 13 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

15 Apr 2026 HDB Financial Services Q4 FY26 net profit rises 41% YoY to Rs 751 crore — Standalone PAT rose to Rs 751 crore from Rs 531 crore; NII grew 21.6% to Rs 2,399 crore and AUM rose 10.7% to Rs 1,18,733 crore. Gross Stage-3 was 2.44% and a final dividend of Rs 2 per share was declared. source
16 Apr 2026 HDB Financial shares rise after Q4 results — Shares rose sharply in trade on 16 April 2026 following the March-quarter results; NIM was reported at 8.2% versus 7.6% a year earlier. source
01 Jun 2026 HDB Financial Services schedules 19th AGM on June 25, 2026 — The company set its AGM for 25 June 2026 via video conference, with 18 June 2026 as record date for the proposed final dividend of Rs 2 per share for FY26. source
30 Jun 2026 HDB Financial Services to issue near 3-year bonds, bankers say — Reuters reported via MarketScreener that the company planned a bond issue of nearly three-year tenor. source
06 Jul 2026 HDB Financial Services plans to raise Rs 700 crore via 25th tranche of NCDs — The company intimated exchanges of a plan to raise INR 7,000 million through the 25th tranche of secured non-convertible debentures. source

What happened next (13 Jul 2026 → 15 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹756.25 to ₹539.10 by 15 Oct 2026 (-28.7%) while the Nifty 50 moved -5.0% — underperforming by 23.7 points.
Highest ₹786.55 on 16 Jul 2026; lowest ₹536.70 on 15 Oct 2026.
S1 734.89: broken on a closing basis on 17 Jul 2026.
S2 704.42: broken on a closing basis on 23 Jul 2026.
R1 772.33: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 22 Jul 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 15 Jul 2026): reported profit ₹785 crore (+38.3% YoY), NIM 8.35%, gross NPA 2.34%, net NPA 1.04%.

Later news

14 Jul 2026 Jimmy Tata ceases to be non-executive director of HDB Financial Services — The company announced the cessation of Jimmy Tata as a non-executive, non-independent director and committee member. source
15 Jul 2026 HDB Financial Services Q1 FY27 net profit rises 38.3% YoY to Rs 785 crore — NII rose 19.9% to Rs 2,509 crore and AUM grew 11.3% to Rs 1,22,048 crore; gross Stage-3 improved to 2.34% from 2.56% a year earlier. source
04 Sep 2026 HDB Financial Services plans Rs 2,000 crore 29th NCD tranche — The company intimated exchanges of a plan to raise INR 20,000 million via the 29th tranche of secured NCDs. source
29 Sep 2026 HDB Financial Services Company Secretary resigns — Dipti Jayesh Khandelwal resigned as Company Secretary and Head Legal, effective 30 October 2026. source
07 Oct 2026 HDB Financial Services board to meet October 14 for Q2 results and interim dividend — The board scheduled a 14 October 2026 meeting to consider Q2/H1 FY27 results and an interim dividend for FY27. source
14 Oct 2026 HDB Financial Services reports Q2 FY27 results — Reuters reported a rise in quarterly profit on loan demand and lower provisions; the stock closed 7.6% lower on 15 October. source

Educational summary. On 13 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -28.7% against -5.0% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold HDB Financial Services today.

Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 16 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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