Private-sector bankHistorical case study · data as of 30 Jun 2026 · published 03 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
HDFC Bank — 100-point case study
How HDFC Bank looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 30 Jun 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Prices are adjusted for the 1:1 bonus issue of August 2025. HDFC Bank merged with parent HDFC Ltd in July 2023, so multi-year growth rates include the merger.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 30 Jun 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.42%/day
Bullish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.42% a day — a short-term uptrend.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +4.3%
Bearish
The 100-session trend line was down (-0.22%/day) and the stock was +4.3% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -20.3%
Bearish
Compared with a year earlier the price was -20.3%. A weak year for the stock.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 772.50 / 30W 847.41
Neutral
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 801.55→790.85; lows 747.00→732.30
Bearish
The two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
18.7
Neutral
ADX at 18.7 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 24.8 / –DI 17.5
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
770.98 (+3.5%)
Bullish
Close of 797.95 was 3.5% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
773.46 (+3.2%)
Bullish
Close of 797.95 was 3.2% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
895.91 (-10.9%)
Bearish
Close of 797.95 was 10.9% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 788.77 / 21E 778.79
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 16 Jun 2026.
12
Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)
no cross in data window
Bearish
The 50-day average was 13.7% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
13
50-day SMA slope
-0.8% in 20 sessions
Bearish
The 50-day average fell 0.8% over the past month — declining.
14
MA ribbon alignment
771 / 773 / 815 / 896
Bearish
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bearish (20 < 50 < 100 < 200).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
770.16 (+3.6%)
Bullish
Anchored to the start of June, the volume-weighted average price was 770.16; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
59.5
Bullish
RSI at 59.5 showed positive momentum without being overbought.
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
bullish divergence
Bullish
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI made a higher low — selling momentum was fading.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 7.90 / signal 3.93
Bullish
MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
4.11 → 3.97
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
20
MACD vs zero line
7.90
Bullish
MACD above zero means the 12-day EMA was above the 26-day EMA — a positive momentum regime.
21
Stochastic (14,3,3)
%K 89.2 / %D 85.3
Caution
Slow stochastic at 89.2 was in overbought territory (>80).
22
Williams %R (14)
-11.7
Caution
%R of -11.7 put the close near the top of its 14-day range.
23
CCI (20)
93
Neutral
CCI at 93 was within the normal ±100 band.
24
Rate of change (10-day)
+2.7%
Bullish
Price changed +2.7% over ten sessions.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.80 (bands 726.70–815.26)
Neutral
%B of 0.80 — inside the bands, upper half.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 11.5% (67th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 67th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
27
ATR (14)
₹16.28 (2.0% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹16.28, or 2.0% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
22.1% vs 1Y 19.9%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 22.1%, close to the one-year level of 19.9%.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
747.41–811.05
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.26
Neutral
A beta of 1.26 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 1.26× / 5-day 1.12×
Neutral
The final session traded 1.26× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.12× — normal participation.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.21
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 1.21× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
34
Accumulation/Distribution line
rising (20d)
Bullish
The A/D line rose, meaning closes tended to be in the upper part of daily ranges on meaningful volume.
35
Chaikin Money Flow (20)
0.01
Neutral
CMF at +0.01 indicated roughly balanced money flow.
36
Money Flow Index (14)
78.9
Bullish
MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 78.9.
37
Liquidity (avg daily turnover)
₹2,796 cr/day
Neutral
About ₹2,796 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — highly liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
774.79 / 734.47 / 726.65
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 774.79, 3.0% below the close, then 734.47, 726.65.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
819.52 / 848.90 / 941.45
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 819.52, 2.7% above the close, then 848.90, 941.45.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 778.78 | R1 825.27 | S1 751.47
Neutral
Classic pivots from June's high/low/close gave a pivot of 778.78; the close was above it.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 793 | 38.2% 834 | 50.0% 867 | 61.8% 900
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month fall from 1,006.40 to 726.65, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 792.67.
42
52-week high / low
H 1,020.50 / L 726.65
Neutral
The close was 21.8% below the 52-week high and 9.8% above the 52-week low.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
1 open; latest gap-down 19 Mar at 831.60
Neutral
There was 1 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 19 Mar 2026, left an open level at 831.60 that price had not revisited.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 732.30–805.90
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 732.30–805.90.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary red candle
Neutral
On 30 Jun the candle opened 806.10, ranged 792.75–806.10 and closed 797.95: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 773.99–804.02; Tenkan 789.33 / Kijun 769.20
Neutral
Price was inside the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — an undecided Ichimoku setup.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M +5.8% / 3M +0.2%
Neutral
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 0.2 points over three months and outperformed by 5.8 points over one month.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty Bank
3M -5.1%
Bearish
Against its sector index (Nifty Bank) the stock was 5.1 points behind over three months.
50
Technical summary
15 bullish · 9 bearish · 23 neutral · 2 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 774.79, resistance 819.52. This is a description of the chart on 30 Jun 2026, not a forecast.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 30 Jun 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 30 Jun 2026 close.
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
15.5×
Neutral
At ₹797.95 the market valued the company at about ₹12,30,668 crore, or 15.5× the ₹79,219 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
2
Price / Book
2.10×
Neutral
Market cap was 2.10× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹5,86,059 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
3
Price / Revenue (interest earned)
3.53×
Neutral
Market cap was 3.53× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹3,48,615 crore.
4
Profit / Book (earnings power)
13.5%
Neutral
Trailing profit was 13.5% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 2.10× for.
5
Earnings yield
6.4%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹6.4 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
0.79
Caution
P/E of 15.5 divided by 3-year profit growth of 19.7% a year gives a PEG of 0.79. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
1.94%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹15.5 a share, a 1.94% yield on the ₹797.95 price.
8
Market capitalisation
₹12,30,668 cr
Neutral
At about ₹12.31 lakh crore the company was a large-cap, among the largest listed companies in India.
9
Graham number vs price
₹662.69 vs ₹797.95
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹662.69; the price was 20% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+3.6%
Neutral
Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹3,48,615 crore, +3.6% versus FY25.
11
Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)
+0.5%
Neutral
The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹87,182 crore of revenue, +0.5% on the same quarter a year earlier.
12
Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)
+7.9%
Neutral
FY26 net profit was ₹79,219 crore, +7.9% on FY25's ₹73,440 crore.
13
Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)
+9.3%
Neutral
Quarterly profit was ₹21,074 crore versus ₹19,285 crore a year earlier (+9.3%).
14
Revenue CAGR (3 years)
26.9%
Caution
Revenue compounded at 26.9% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
15
Profit CAGR (3 years)
19.7%
Caution
Net profit compounded at 19.7% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
16
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
22.1%
Caution
Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 22.1% a year. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
17
EPS growth FY26 (reported)
+6.8%
Neutral
Reported EPS went from ₹46.26 to ₹49.39 (+6.8%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).
C. Profitability
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
18
Net interest margin (Q4 FY26)
3.38%
Neutral
NIM — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was 3.38% in Jan–Mar 2026 (as reported). Above ~3.5% is strong for an Indian bank.
19
Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)
+3.2%
Bearish
Core interest income after interest expense was ₹33,081 crore, +3.2% year on year (standalone, as reported).
20
Net profit margin FY26
22.7%
Neutral
₹22.7 of every ₹100 of interest-led revenue ended up as net profit in FY26.
21
Return on equity FY26
14.3%
Neutral
FY26 profit was 14.3% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak.
22
Leverage (assets ÷ equity)
8.4×
Neutral
Total assets were 8.4× equity — normal for banks, which fund most assets with deposits.
23
Return on assets FY26
1.61%
Bullish
Net profit was 1.61% of total assets. For banks, ROA above 1% is considered healthy.
24
Effective tax rate FY26
22%
Neutral
The company paid about 22% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%.
25
Q4 FY26 standalone profit (reported)
₹19,221 cr (+9.1%)
Neutral
The bank's own (standalone) Jan–Mar 2026 profit as reported was ₹19,221 crore, +9.1% year on year.
D. Asset quality & capital
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
26
Gross NPA (Q4 FY26)
1.15%
Bullish
Gross non-performing assets were 1.15% of loans — low by Indian standards.
27
Net NPA (Q4 FY26)
0.38%
Bullish
After provisions, net NPAs were 0.38% of loans.
28
CASA ratio
34.1%
Neutral
Low-cost current and savings deposits made up 34.1% of deposits — a higher CASA means cheaper funding.
29
Capital adequacy (CRAR)
19.71%
Bullish
Capital adequacy was 19.71%, comfortably above the RBI minimum of 11.5% (incl. buffer).
30
Loan (advances) growth
+12.0%
Neutral
Advances grew +12.0% year on year (as reported).
31
Deposit growth
+14.4%
Bullish
Deposits grew +14.4% year on year (as reported).
32
Deposit base (consolidated)
₹31.00 lakh cr
Neutral
Consolidated deposits were ₹30,99,638 crore at Mar 2026, +14.3% on a year earlier.
33
Book value growth
+12.3%
Bullish
Equity grew +12.3% to ₹5,86,059 crore — banks need book growth to support loan growth.
E. Cash flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
34
Operating cash flow FY26
₹1,13,506 cr
Neutral
Operating cash flow was ₹1,13,506 crore. For banks this swings with deposit and loan flows, so it says little about profitability.
35
Investing cash flow FY26
₹7,477 cr
Neutral
Investing flows for banks mostly reflect securities and fixed-asset purchases.
36
Financing cash flow FY26
₹-59,005 cr
Neutral
Financing flows reflect borrowings raised/repaid and dividends paid.
37
Net cash flow FY26
₹61,978 cr
Neutral
Overall cash and balances changed by ₹61,978 crore in FY26.
38
Investment book growth
+7.9%
Neutral
The investment portfolio (mostly government securities) moved +7.9% to ₹12,80,216 crore.
39
Loan growth minus deposit growth
-2.4 pts
Neutral
Loans grew 12.0% and deposits 14.4%. Deposit growth kept pace with lending — funding was not a constraint.
F. Dividends & shareholder returns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
40
Dividend payout ratio FY26
31%
Neutral
The company paid out about 31% of FY26 profit as dividends.
41
Dividend consistency (3 years)
23% / 24% / 31%
Bullish
Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year.
42
Share capital change (FY25→FY26)
+101.2%
Neutral
Paid-up equity capital rose +101.2%, consistent with a bonus issue or split — shareholders' ownership was not diluted.
G. Ownership
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
43
Promoter holding
No promoter (widely held)
Neutral
The company has no identified promoter group — ownership is spread among institutions and the public.
44
Foreign institutional holding
44.05% (-4.25 pts YoY)
Bearish
FIIs held 44.05% at Mar 2026, down from 48.30% a year before.
45
Domestic institutional holding
40.14% (+4.46 pts YoY)
Bullish
Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 40.14%, up from 35.68%.
46
Number of shareholders
42.3 lakh (+10.5% YoY)
Neutral
The shareholder count moved from 38.3 lakh to 42.3 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47
Promoter pledge
none reported
Neutral
Not applicable — no promoter group.
H. Quality & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)
Strengths: Company has delivered good profit growth of 18.9% CAGR over last 5 years; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 26.1%; Company's median sales growth is 16.3% of last 10 years. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; Contingent liabilities of Rs.35,61,957 Cr; Earnings include an other income of Rs.1,43,700 Cr. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
50
Fundamental summary
9 bullish · 2 bearish · 34 neutral · 4 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 30 Jun 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 15.5×, P/B 2.10×. This describes the data, not a recommendation.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 1 Apr – 30 Jun 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
03 Apr 2026Dubai regulator finds HDFC Bank's DIFC branch failed to disclose AT1 issues for five years — Economic Times reported that the Dubai regulator found HDFC Bank's DIFC branch kept quiet for five years over the Credit Suisse AT1 bond sales, extending the governance scrutiny that followed the chairman's March resignation. source
18 Apr 2026HDFC Bank Q4 FY26: net profit up 9.1% to Rs 19,221 crore; Rs 13 final dividend — Standalone PAT rose 9.1% YoY to Rs 19,221 crore with NII of Rs 33,081 crore (+3.2%), NIM 3.38% on total assets, gross NPA 1.15% and net NPA 0.38%. The board recommended a final dividend of Rs 13 per share (record date 19 June 2026). source
07 May 2026HDFC Bank governance review by law firms finds no major lapses - report — A review by Trilegal and Wadia Ghandy & Co, commissioned after former chairman Atanu Chakraborty's March resignation, reportedly found no significant governance failings; it was to go to the board and then the RBI. source
27 May 2026HDFC Bank shares fall as deposit-payment report deepens governance scrutiny — Shares fell as much as 2% (to about Rs 764) after The Indian Express reported the bank made Rs 45 crore of payments to Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation, booked as marketing expenses, to secure deposits. source
22 Jun 2026RBI extends Keki Mistry's term as interim chairman; AGM set for 5 August — RBI approved a three-month extension of Keki Mistry as interim part-time chairman until 18 September 2026 or until a regular chairman is appointed; the AGM was fixed for 5 August 2026. source
29 Jun 2026HDFC Bank board approves nomination of Rajiv Kumar as part-time chairman — The board approved former Chief Election Commissioner and Finance Secretary Rajiv Kumar as part-time chairman, subject to RBI approval. source
What happened next (30 Jun 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹797.95 to ₹721.20 by 01 Oct 2026 (-9.6%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.0% — underperforming by 3.6 points.
Highest ₹843.00 on 07 Jul 2026; lowest ₹681.90 on 11 Sep 2026.
S1 774.79: broken on a closing basis on 21 Jul 2026.
S2 734.47: broken on a closing basis on 06 Aug 2026.
R1 819.52: cleared on a closing basis on 06 Jul 2026.
R2 848.90: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Shareholding Mar → Jun 2026: FIIs 44.05% → 41.82%, DIIs 40.14% → 41.75%.
Later news
05 Jul 2026Q1 FY27 business update: gross advances +15.4%, deposits +14.7% — Gross advances rose 15.4% YoY to about Rs 30.61 lakh crore and period-end deposits 14.7% to about Rs 31.71 lakh crore as of 30 June 2026; CASA deposits rose 9.4%. source
15 Jul 2026RBI approves Rajiv Kumar as HDFC Bank part-time chairman — RBI approved Rajiv Kumar's appointment as part-time chairman for three years effective 15 July 2026; Keki Mistry stays on the board as a non-executive director. source
18 Jul 2026HDFC Bank Q1 FY27: net profit up 5% to Rs 19,060 crore; NIM slips to 3.26% — Standalone PAT rose 5.0% YoY to Rs 19,060 crore and NII 6.7% to Rs 33,534 crore; NIM fell to 3.26% from 3.38% in Q4, gross NPA 1.17%, net NPA 0.41%. Shares fell over 5% on the next trading day (20 July). source
10 Sep 2026Bahrain court rejects all seven Credit Suisse AT1 cases against HDFC Bank — Bahrain's High Civil Court dismissed all seven cases by AT1 bond investors, finding insufficient admissible evidence of mis-selling. source
01 Oct 2026RBI approves Anup Bagchi as HDFC Bank MD & CEO from 27 October 2026 — RBI approved former ICICI Prudential Life chief Anup Bagchi as MD & CEO for three years from 27 October 2026, succeeding Sashidhar Jagdishan whose tenure ends 26 October 2026. The stock closed 1.76% higher at Rs 721.20 that day. source
Educational summary. On 30 Jun 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -9.6% against -6.0% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold HDFC Bank today.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 03 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50, Nifty Bank via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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