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Oil refining & marketing (PSU) Historical case study · data as of 13 Jul 2026 · published 16 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation — 100-point case study

How Hindustan Petroleum Corporation looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 13 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: HINDPETRO · BSE: 500104
Close on 13 Jul 2026	₹391.60
Market cap then	₹83,220 crore
Valuation	P/E 4.6× · P/B 1.27×
Momentum	RSI (14) 49 · 1-year return -10.2%
Next 3 months	-11.0% vs Nifty 50 -5.0% (to 15 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

9 bullish · 25 neutral · 1 caution · 14 bearish — the picture leaned negative.

Fundamental — 50 points

14 bullish · 33 neutral · 0 caution · 2 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Data note: Fundamentals are consolidated (Screener). Standalone and consolidated profits differ noticeably — for example, Q4 FY26 profit was about ₹4,902 crore standalone versus ₹6,065 crore consolidated.

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 13 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope -0.10%/day	Bearish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.10% a day — a short-term downtrend. Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return +9.4%	Neutral	The 100-session trend line was down (-0.03%/day) and the stock was +9.4% over three months, so the medium-term picture was neutral. Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return -10.2%	Bearish	Compared with a year earlier the price was -10.2%. A weak year for the stock. Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 391.14 / 30W 401.66	Neutral	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages. Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 412.55→420.00; lows 361.10→388.50	Bullish	The two most recent swing points showed higher swing highs and higher swing lows — classic uptrend structure. Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	13.6	Neutral	ADX at 13.6 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction. Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 26.6 / –DI 30.1	Bearish	–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement. Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	397.95 (-1.6%)	Bearish	Close of 391.60 was 1.6% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	388.94 (+0.7%)	Bullish	Close of 391.60 was 0.7% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	421.31 (-7.1%)	Bearish	Close of 391.60 was 7.1% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 395.02 / 21E 394.48	Bullish	The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 15 Jun 2026. Bullish 9-day above 21-day · Bearish 9-day below 21-day · No neutral zone.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bearish	The 50-day average was 7.7% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window. Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13	50-day SMA slope	+3.9% in 20 sessions	Bullish	The 50-day average rose 3.9% over the past month — rising. Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14	MA ribbon alignment	398 / 389 / 386 / 421	Neutral	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range. Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	393.87 (-0.6%)	Bearish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 393.87; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water. Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	48.9	Neutral	RSI at 48.9 was in the neutral 45–55 zone. Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	none	Neutral	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price. Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD 1.63 / signal 2.94	Bearish	MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative. Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	0.14 → -1.31	Bearish	The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening. Bullish histogram rising (momentum improving) · Bearish histogram falling (momentum weakening) · No neutral zone.
20	MACD vs zero line	1.63	Bullish	MACD above zero means the 12-day EMA was above the 26-day EMA — a positive momentum regime. Bullish MACD above zero · Bearish MACD below zero · No neutral zone.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 27.3 / %D 26.8	Bullish	Slow stochastic at 27.3 was mid-range with %K above %D. Bullish between 20 and 80 with %K above %D · Bearish between 20 and 80 with %K below %D · Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
22	Williams %R (14)	-76.4	Neutral	%R of -76.4 put the close in the middle of its 14-day range. How to read: Caution above –20 (near the top) or below –80 (near the bottom). Neutral in the middle. This point is never tagged Bullish or Bearish.
23	CCI (20)	-102	Bearish	CCI at -102 signalled an unusually strong downward deviation (<–100). Bullish above +100 (unusually strong upward move) · Bearish below –100 (unusually strong downward move) · Neutral within ±100.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	+0.5%	Neutral	Price changed +0.5% over ten sessions. Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.27 (bands 384.44–411.47)	Neutral	%B of 0.27 — inside the bands, lower half. How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 6.8% (0th pct of 6M)	Caution	Band width was at the 0th percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown). How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27	ATR (14)	₹11.25 (2.9% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹11.25, or 2.9% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect. How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	37.3% vs 1Y 35.0%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 37.3%, close to the one-year level of 35.0%. How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	372.78–416.47	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout. Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	1.61	Neutral	A beta of 1.61 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day. How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 1.17× / 5-day 1.26×	Neutral	The final session traded 1.17× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.26× — heavier than usual participation. How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 0.73	Bearish	Average volume on up days was 0.73× that on down days — distribution-leaning. Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV rising	Bullish	OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move. Bullish OBV rising · Bearish OBV falling · No neutral zone.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	falling (20d)	Bearish	The A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume. Bullish A/D line rising · Bearish A/D line falling · No neutral zone.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	-0.21	Bearish	CMF at -0.21 indicated net outflows. Bullish above +0.05 (net inflows) · Bearish below –0.05 (net outflows) · Neutral between –0.05 and +0.05.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	46.0	Neutral	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 46.0. Bullish MFI 55–80 · Bearish MFI 20–45 · Neutral 45–55. Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹246 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹246 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid. How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	384.88 / 362.75 / 340.80	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 384.88, 1.7% below the close, then 362.75, 340.80. How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	411.17 / 435.90 / 459.15	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 411.17, 5.0% above the close, then 435.90, 459.15. How to read: Information only.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 393.85 \| R1 404.85 \| S1 380.60	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 393.85; the close was below it. How to read: Information only.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 362 \| 38.2% 390 \| 50.0% 412 \| 61.8% 435	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month fall from 508.45 to 316.20, the close was nearest the 38.2% retracement at 389.64. How to read: Information only.
42	52-week high / low	H 508.45 / L 316.20	Neutral	The close was 23.0% below the 52-week high and 23.8% above the 52-week low. Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	6 open; latest gap-down 13 Jul at 394.40	Neutral	There were 6 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 13 Jul 2026, left an open level at 394.40 that price had not revisited. How to read: Information only.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	broad sideways range	Neutral	Rule-based pattern scan: broad sideways range. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.) Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 372.00–420.00	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 372.00–420.00. Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary green candle	Neutral	On 13 Jul the candle opened 388.25, ranged 385.55–394.15 and closed 391.60: Ordinary green candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own. Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 364.38–389.89; Tenkan 394.98 / Kijun 390.55	Bullish	Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup. Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M +2.6% / 3M +7.6%	Bullish	The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 7.6 points over three months and outperformed by 2.6 points over one month. Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M -13.0%	Bearish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 13.0 points behind the Nifty 50. Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50	Technical summary	9 bullish · 14 bearish · 25 neutral · 1 caution	Bearish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 384.88, resistance 411.17. This is a description of the chart on 13 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 13 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 13 Jul 2026 close.

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	4.6×	Neutral	At ₹391.60 the market valued the company at about ₹83,220 crore, or 4.6× the ₹18,046 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms. How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2	Price / Book	1.27×	Neutral	Market cap was 1.27× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹65,556 crore. How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3	Price / Sales	0.19×	Neutral	The company was valued at 0.19× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹4,41,771 crore. How to read: Information only.
4	EV / EBITDA (approx.)	4.6×	Neutral	Enterprise value (market cap + ₹55,964 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 4.6× trailing operating profit of ₹30,522 crore. How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5	Earnings yield	21.7%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹21.7 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds. How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	n/m	Neutral	PEG is not meaningful because 3-year profit growth was not available. Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	3.96%	Bullish	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹15.5 a share, a 3.96% yield on the ₹391.60 price. Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8	Market capitalisation	₹83,220 cr	Neutral	At about ₹0.83 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap. How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9	Graham number vs price	₹767.72 vs ₹391.60	Bullish	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹767.72; the price was 49% below it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number. Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+1.8%	Neutral	Revenue for FY26 was ₹4,41,771 crore, +1.8% versus FY25. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% (revenue fell) · Neutral 0–10%.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+4.8%	Neutral	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹1,14,937 crore of revenue, +4.8% on the same quarter a year earlier. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+167.9%	Bullish	FY26 net profit was ₹18,047 crore, +167.9% on FY25's ₹6,736 crore. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%. Caution if a one-off item distorted the figure.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	+77.6%	Bullish	Quarterly profit was ₹6,065 crore versus ₹3,415 crore a year earlier (+77.6%). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	0.1%	Bearish	Revenue compounded at 0.1% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	n/a	Neutral	Not available. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	13.6%	Bullish	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 13.6% a year. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+167.9%	Bullish	Reported EPS went from ₹31.66 to ₹84.81 (+167.9%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Operating margin FY26	7%	Neutral	Operating profit (EBITDA) was 7% of sales in FY26 versus 4% in FY25. How to read: Information only — normal margins differ a lot by industry.
19	Operating margin trend (4 quarters)	7% → 7% → 6% → 8%	Neutral	Quarterly margins moved from 7% to 8% over the last four quarters — broadly stable. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral when broadly stable.
20	Net profit margin FY26	4.1%	Neutral	₹4.1 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26. How to read: Information only.
21	Return on equity FY26	30.9%	Bullish	FY26 profit was 30.9% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak. Bullish above 18% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–18%. Around 15% or more is generally considered good.
22	ROCE FY26	22%	Bullish	Return on capital employed (debt + equity) was 22% in FY26. Bullish above 20% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–20%.
23	Return on assets FY26	8.89%	Neutral	Net profit was 8.89% of total assets. Bullish banks only: 1.5% or more · Bearish banks only: below 1% · Information only for non-banks.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	24%	Neutral	The company paid about 24% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%. How to read: Information only. India’s base corporate rate is about 25%.
25	Other income share of pre-tax profit	16%	Neutral	Non-operating 'other income' of ₹3,736 crore made up 16% of pre-tax profit. How to read: Caution above 25% (headline profit leans on non-core income). Neutral otherwise.

D. Balance sheet

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Debt / equity	0.85	Neutral	Borrowings of ₹55,964 crore were 0.85× equity — moderate leverage. Bullish below 0.3 (very low leverage) · Bearish above 1 (high leverage) · Neutral 0.3–1.
27	Debt / EBITDA	1.83×	Neutral	Debt equalled 1.83 years of FY26 operating profit. Bullish below 1× · Bearish above 3× · Neutral 1–3×.
28	Interest coverage	8.0×	Neutral	Earnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 8.0 times. Bullish above 8× · Bearish below 3× · Neutral 3–8×, or not meaningful when interest is negligible.
29	Book value growth	+28.2%	Bullish	Shareholders' equity grew +28.2% from ₹51,144 crore to ₹65,556 crore in FY26. Bullish above 10% (banks: above 12%) · Bearish below 0% (non-banks only) · Neutral otherwise.
30	Capital work in progress	₹8,033 cr (8% of fixed assets)	Neutral	Projects under construction (CWIP) were 8% of fixed assets — a modest pipeline. How to read: Information only. Above 20% means a big expansion pipeline that is not yet earning.
31	Working capital days	-29 days	Neutral	Working capital tied up equalled -29 days of sales (FY25: -35). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations. How to read: Information only. Lower is generally more efficient; negative means suppliers or customers fund the business.
32	Cash conversion cycle	14 days	Neutral	It took 14 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit. How to read: Information only. Shorter is generally better.
33	Debtor days	6 (FY25 10)	Neutral	Customers took 6 days on average to pay, versus 10 a year earlier. How to read: Caution when debtor days rose more than 20% in a year (collections stretching). Neutral otherwise.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹36,111 cr	Bullish	The business generated ₹36,111 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹14,231 crore in FY25. Bullish positive and higher than the year before · Bearish negative · Neutral when positive but lower. Information only for banks.
35	Free cash flow FY26	n/a	Neutral	Free cash flow line not available on source page. Bullish positive · Bearish negative · Neutral when not available.
36	Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)	2.00×	Bullish	Operating cash flow was 2.00× reported profit — profits were well backed by cash. Bullish above 1× (profits well backed by cash) · Caution below 0.7×. Neutral 0.7–1×.
37	Free-cash-flow yield	n/a	Neutral	Not available. Bullish above 4% · Neutral at 4% or less.
38	Free cash flow — 3-year total	n/a	Neutral	Not available. Bullish positive total · Bearish negative total · Neutral when not available.
39	Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)	n/a	Neutral	Not available. How to read: Information only.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	29%	Neutral	The company paid out about 29% of FY26 profit as dividends. How to read: Information only. High payout suits mature businesses; growing firms often keep more.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	28% / 33% / 29%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year. Bullish paid every year · Neutral when irregular. Never tagged Bearish.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+0.0%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital changed +0.0% (₹2,128 cr → ₹2,128 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution. Bullish fell 1% or more (a buyback) · Caution when it rose 1% or more (new shares issued). Neutral when unchanged, or for a bonus/split.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	54.90% (+0.00 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 54.90% at Mar 2026 versus 54.90% a year earlier. Bearish fell more than 1 percentage point in a year · Neutral otherwise. Never tagged Bullish.
44	Foreign institutional holding	17.26% (+4.71 pts YoY)	Bullish	FIIs held 17.26% at Mar 2026, up from 12.55% a year before. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
45	Domestic institutional holding	19.58% (-3.97 pts YoY)	Bearish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 19.58%, down from 23.55%. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
46	Number of shareholders	5.0 lakh (-5.0% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 5.3 lakh to 5.0 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest. How to read: Information only — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares. How to read: Information only. Any sizeable pledge is a risk to note.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	7/8	Bullish	Passed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, CFO > net profit, leverage fell, operating margin improved, ROA improved, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: asset turnover improved. Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49	Automated screen flags	5 strength(s) · 2 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Company has reduced debt; Stock is trading at 1.13 times its book value; Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 6.96%; Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 27.8%; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 29.9%. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; Earnings include an other income of Rs.4,001 Cr. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.) How to read: Information only.
50	Fundamental summary	14 bullish · 2 bearish · 33 neutral · 0 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 13 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 4.6×, P/B 1.27×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 13 Apr 2026 – 13 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

21 Apr 2026 Fire at HPCL Rajasthan Refinery a day before scheduled PM inauguration — A fire broke out on April 20, 2026 at the HPCL Rajasthan Refinery (HRRL) at Pachpadra, Balotra, and a probe was launched; the planned inauguration was postponed. source
26 Apr 2026 HPCL attributes refinery fire to leak, expects restart in second half of May — HPCL said a suspected leak from a pressure gauge in the crude distillation unit caused the April 20 fire at its Rajasthan JV refinery, with restoration expected to take three to four weeks. source
13 May 2026 HPCL Q4 FY26 consolidated profit rises to Rs 6,065 crore; final dividend of Rs 19.25 announced — Consolidated net profit for Jan-Mar 2026 was Rs 6,065 crore versus Rs 3,415 crore a year earlier, with GRM of $14.27/bbl. The board recommended a final dividend of Rs 19.25 per share with record date August 14, 2026. source
01 Jun 2026 Two HPCL executive directors retire on superannuation — HPCL disclosed the retirement, effective June 1, 2026, of its executive director for business development and the executive director of the Visakh refinery. source
18 Jun 2026 HPCL restarts Rajasthan refinery crude unit after April fire — HPCL said the crude distillation unit at HRRL was restored and restarted, with the refinery producing BS-VI diesel, LPG, petcoke and naphtha. source
23 Jun 2026 HPCL says HRRL has begun commercial operations — HPCL informed exchanges that its Rajasthan refinery joint venture HRRL commenced commercial operations as of June 22, 2026. source
04 Jul 2026 PM inaugurates Rs 79,459-crore HPCL Rajasthan Refinery — The 9 MMTPA Pachpadra refinery, 74% owned by HPCL and 26% by the Rajasthan government, was inaugurated; it is India's first greenfield refinery in about a decade. source

What happened next (13 Jul 2026 → 15 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹391.60 to ₹348.50 by 15 Oct 2026 (-11.0%) while the Nifty 50 moved -5.0% — underperforming by 6.0 points.
Highest ₹409.95 on 21 Jul 2026; lowest ₹323.25 on 09 Oct 2026.
S1 384.88: broken on a closing basis on 24 Jul 2026.
S2 362.75: broken on a closing basis on 02 Sep 2026.
R1 411.17: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 435.90: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 22 Jul 2026): revenue ₹1,40,584 crore (+26.9% YoY), net profit ₹-12,265 crore (-398.3% YoY), operating margin -11% vs 7% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).

Later news

22 Jul 2026 HPCL reports Rs 11,526 crore standalone net loss in Q1 FY27 — For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, HPCL reported a standalone net loss of Rs 11,526 crore as total expenses rose to Rs 1,63,853 crore; revenue included Rs 1,980 crore LPG under-recovery compensation. Consolidated loss per Screener was Rs 12,265 crore. source
03 Aug 2026 What drove Q1 FY27 losses at HPCL, BPCL and IOC — Higher crude prices linked to the US-Iran conflict compressed fuel marketing margins and LPG under-recoveries rose to about Rs 510 per cylinder; HPCL had the highest marketing exposure of the three. source
17 Aug 2026 HPCL accepts resignation of executive director Amol Taori — HPCL disclosed the resignation of executive director Amol Taori. source
26 Aug 2026 HPCL AGM approves Rs 19.25 final dividend; director appointments see some dissent — At its 74th AGM, shareholders approved the FY26 final dividend with 99.21% support, while several director appointments drew 13-16% votes against. source

Educational summary. On 13 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -11.0% against -5.0% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Hindustan Petroleum Corporation today.

Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 16 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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