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FMCG Historical case study · data as of 30 Jun 2026 · published 03 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

Hindustan Unilever — 100-point case study

How Hindustan Unilever looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 30 Jun 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

CodesNSE: HINDUNILVR · BSE: 500696
Close on 30 Jun 2026₹2,118.20
Market cap then₹4,97,690 crore
ValuationP/E 33.0× · P/B 10.21×
MomentumRSI (14) 41 · 1-year return -7.7%
Next 3 months-13.3% vs Nifty 50 -6.0% (to 01 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

5 bullish · 21 neutral · 1 caution · 22 bearish — the picture leaned negative.

Fundamental — 50 points

6 bullish · 35 neutral · 6 caution · 2 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

1,7722,0302,2882,5472,805Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26R2 2,218R1 2,155S1 2,111S2 2,066Snapshot 30 JunWhat happened next →
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Price history is not adjusted for the ice-cream demerger (Kwality Wall's, ex-date 5 Dec 2025, when the price dropped about 5%). Readings that reach back before that date — the 1-year return, 200-day average, 52-week high — overstate the decline.

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 30 Jun 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

A. Trend

#PointReadingTagCommentary
1Short-term trend (20 days)slope +0.18%/dayBullishOver the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.18% a day — a short-term uptrend.
2Medium-term trend (~5 months)3M return +1.6%BearishThe 100-session trend line was down (-0.08%/day) and the stock was +1.6% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
3Long-term trend (1 year)1Y return -7.7%NeutralCompared with a year earlier the price was -7.7%. Little net progress over twelve months. (Caution: the series includes the Dec 2025 demerger price drop, which is not a market move.)
4Weekly chart trend10W 2,194.52 / 30W 2,244.94BearishOn the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week.
5Swing structure (highs/lows)last highs 2,408.00→2,224.60; lows 2,211.60→2,065.70BearishThe two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure.
6ADX (14) — trend strength15.6NeutralADX at 15.6 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
7+DI vs –DI+DI 19.9 / –DI 23.7Bearish–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.

B. Moving averages

#PointReadingTagCommentary
8Price vs 20-day SMA2,150.97 (-1.5%)BearishClose of 2,118.20 was 1.5% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
9Price vs 50-day SMA2,216.80 (-4.4%)BearishClose of 2,118.20 was 4.4% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
10Price vs 200-day SMA2,336.32 (-9.3%)BearishClose of 2,118.20 was 9.3% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative. (Caution: the series includes the Dec 2025 demerger price drop, which is not a market move.)
119 / 21 EMA crossover9E 2,158.60 / 21E 2,167.27BearishThe 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 24 Jun 2026.
12Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)no cross in data windowBearishThe 50-day average was 5.1% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window. (Caution: the series includes the Dec 2025 demerger price drop, which is not a market move.)
1350-day SMA slope+0.7% in 20 sessionsBullishThe 50-day average rose 0.7% over the past month — rising.
14MA ribbon alignment2,151 / 2,217 / 2,226 / 2,336BearishThe 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bearish (20 < 50 < 100 < 200). (Caution: the series includes the Dec 2025 demerger price drop, which is not a market move.)
15Monthly anchored VWAP2,144.48 (-1.2%)BearishAnchored to the start of June, the volume-weighted average price was 2,144.48; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.

C. Momentum

#PointReadingTagCommentary
16RSI (14)40.8BearishRSI at 40.8 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
17RSI divergence (last 40 days)bullish divergenceBullishComparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI made a higher low — selling momentum was fading.
18MACD line vs signalMACD -10.21 / signal -9.69BearishMACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
19MACD histogram (5-day change)7.69 → -0.52BearishThe histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
20MACD vs zero line-10.21BearishMACD below zero means the 12-day EMA was below the 26-day EMA — a negative momentum regime.
21Stochastic (14,3,3)%K 33.9 / %D 47.6BearishSlow stochastic at 33.9 was mid-range with %K below %D.
22Williams %R (14)-96.4Caution%R of -96.4 put the close near the bottom of its 14-day range.
23CCI (20)-48NeutralCCI at -48 was within the normal ±100 band.
24Rate of change (10-day)-1.8%NeutralPrice changed -1.8% over ten sessions.

D. Volatility

#PointReadingTagCommentary
25Bollinger Band position (%B)%B 0.29 (bands 2,071.96–2,229.98)Neutral%B of 0.29 — inside the bands, lower half.
26Bollinger width / squeezewidth 7.3% (19th pct of 6M)NeutralBand width was at the 19th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
27ATR (14)₹42.74 (2.0% of price)NeutralA typical day's range was about ₹42.74, or 2.0% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
28Historical volatility (30-day)19.7% vs 1Y 20.7%NeutralAnnualised 30-day volatility was 19.7%, close to the one-year level of 20.7%.
29Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)2,085.37–2,247.61NeutralThe close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
30Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)0.61NeutralA beta of 0.61 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.

E. Volume & money flow

#PointReadingTagCommentary
31Volume vs 20-day averagelast day 1.56× / 5-day 0.97×NeutralThe final session traded 1.56× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.97× — normal participation.
32Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)ratio 1.16BullishAverage volume on up days was 1.16× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
33On-Balance Volume (20d)OBV fallingBearishOBV fell over the month while price rose — volume diverged from price.
34Accumulation/Distribution linefalling (20d)BearishThe A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume.
35Chaikin Money Flow (20)-0.04NeutralCMF at -0.04 indicated roughly balanced money flow.
36Money Flow Index (14)55.1BullishMFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 55.1.
37Liquidity (avg daily turnover)₹326 cr/dayNeutralAbout ₹326 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.

F. Price levels

#PointReadingTagCommentary
38Support levels (S1/S2/S3)2,111.40 / 2,065.70 / 2,027.90NeutralNearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 2,111.40, 0.3% below the close, then 2,065.70, 2,027.90.
39Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)2,154.70 / 2,218.50 / 2,310.00NeutralNearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 2,154.70, 1.7% above the close, then 2,218.50, 2,310.00.
40Monthly pivot points (for next month)P 2,136.17 | R1 2,206.63 | S1 2,047.73NeutralClassic pivots from June's high/low/close gave a pivot of 2,136.17; the close was below it.
41Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)23.6% 2,130 | 38.2% 2,197 | 50.0% 2,251 | 61.8% 2,305NeutralMeasuring the 6-month fall from 2,479.60 to 2,022.50, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 2,130.38.
4252-week high / lowH 2,750.00 / L 2,022.50BearishThe close was 23.0% below the 52-week high and 4.7% above the 52-week low. (Caution: the series includes the Dec 2025 demerger price drop, which is not a market move.)
43Unfilled price gaps (6M)noneNeutralNo unfilled price gaps in the last six months.

G. Patterns

#PointReadingTagCommentary
44Price structure / chart patterncounter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrendNeutralRule-based pattern scan: counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
45Breakout / breakdown (20-day)range 2,065.70–2,224.60NeutralThe close was inside the prior 20-day range of 2,065.70–2,224.60.
46Latest candlestickBearish marubozu-type candleBearishOn 30 Jun the candle opened 2,151.00, ranged 2,114.20–2,151.30 and closed 2,118.20: Bearish marubozu-type candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
47Ichimoku Cloudcloud 2,215.25–2,257.55; Tenkan 2,169.40 / Kijun 2,151.90BearishPrice was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.

H. Relative strength & summary

#PointReadingTagCommentary
48Relative strength vs Nifty 501M -3.0% / 3M -2.6%BearishThe stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 2.6 points over three months and underperformed by 3.0 points over one month.
49Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)6M +1.0%NeutralNo sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 1.0 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
50Technical summary5 bullish · 22 bearish · 21 neutral · 1 cautionBearishAcross the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 2,111.40, resistance 2,154.70. This is a description of the chart on 30 Jun 2026, not a forecast.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 30 Jun 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 30 Jun 2026 close.

A. Valuation

#PointReadingTagCommentary
1P/E (trailing 12 months)33.0×NeutralAt ₹2,118.20 the market valued the company at about ₹4,97,690 crore, or 33.0× the ₹15,059 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
2Price / Book10.21×NeutralMarket cap was 10.21× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹48,739 crore.
3Price / Sales7.72×NeutralThe company was valued at 7.72× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹64,468 crore.
4EV / EBITDA (approx.)33.2×NeutralEnterprise value (market cap + ₹1,478 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 33.2× trailing operating profit of ₹15,039 crore.
5Earnings yield3.0%NeutralThe inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹3.0 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)2.35CautionP/E of 33.0 divided by 3-year profit growth of 14.1% a year gives a PEG of 2.35. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Note: the Dec 2024 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹733 crore; the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹4,048 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
7Dividend yield (trailing 12M)1.94%NeutralDividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹41 a share, a 1.94% yield on the ₹2,118.20 price.
8Market capitalisation₹4,97,690 crNeutralAt about ₹4.98 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
9Graham number vs price₹546.93 vs ₹2,118.20NeutralBenjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹546.93; the price was 287% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.

B. Growth

#PointReadingTagCommentary
10Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)+5.1%NeutralRevenue for FY26 was ₹64,468 crore, +5.1% versus FY25.
11Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)+7.6%NeutralThe Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹16,351 crore of revenue, +7.6% on the same quarter a year earlier.
12Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)+41.1%CautionFY26 net profit was ₹15,059 crore, +41.1% on FY25's ₹10,671 crore. Note: the Dec 2024 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹733 crore; the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹4,048 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
13Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)+21.0%CautionQuarterly profit was ₹2,994 crore versus ₹2,475 crore a year earlier (+21.0%). Note: the Dec 2024 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹733 crore; the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹4,048 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
14Revenue CAGR (3 years)2.1%BearishRevenue compounded at 2.1% a year from FY23 to FY26.
15Profit CAGR (3 years)14.1%CautionNet profit compounded at 14.1% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: the Dec 2024 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹733 crore; the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹4,048 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
16Revenue CAGR (5 years)6.5%NeutralOver five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 6.5% a year.
17EPS growth FY26 (reported)+41.2%CautionReported EPS went from ₹45.32 to ₹64.01 (+41.2%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Note: the Dec 2024 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹733 crore; the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹4,048 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.

C. Profitability

#PointReadingTagCommentary
18Operating margin FY2623%NeutralOperating profit (EBITDA) was 23% of sales in FY26 versus 24% in FY25.
19Operating margin trend (4 quarters)23% → 24% → 23% → 23%NeutralQuarterly margins moved from 23% to 23% over the last four quarters — broadly stable.
20Net profit margin FY2623.4%Neutral₹23.4 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26.
21Return on equity FY2630.7%BullishFY26 profit was 30.7% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak.
22ROCE FY2628%BullishReturn on capital employed (debt + equity) was 28% in FY26.
23Return on assets FY2618.89%NeutralNet profit was 18.89% of total assets.
24Effective tax rate FY2617%NeutralThe company paid about 17% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%.
25Other income share of pre-tax profit27%CautionNon-operating 'other income' of ₹4,923 crore made up 27% of pre-tax profit — a large share, so core earnings were lower than headline profit.

D. Balance sheet

#PointReadingTagCommentary
26Debt / equity0.03BullishBorrowings of ₹1,478 crore were 0.03× equity — very low leverage.
27Debt / EBITDA0.10×BullishDebt equalled 0.10 years of FY26 operating profit.
28Interest coverage45.4×BullishEarnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 45.4 times.
29Book value growth-1.3%BearishShareholders' equity grew -1.3% from ₹49,402 crore to ₹48,739 crore in FY26.
30Capital work in progress₹880 cr (2% of fixed assets)NeutralProjects under construction (CWIP) were 2% of fixed assets — a modest pipeline.
31Working capital days-23 daysNeutralWorking capital tied up equalled -23 days of sales (FY25: -34). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations.
32Cash conversion cycle-89 daysNeutralIt took -89 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit.
33Debtor days19 (FY25 23)NeutralCustomers took 19 days on average to pay, versus 23 a year earlier.

E. Cash flow

#PointReadingTagCommentary
34Operating cash flow FY26₹10,999 crNeutralThe business generated ₹10,999 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹11,886 crore in FY25.
35Free cash flow FY26n/aNeutralFree cash flow line not available on source page.
36Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)0.73×NeutralOperating cash flow was 0.73× reported profit — reasonable cash backing.
37Free-cash-flow yieldn/aNeutralNot available.
38Free cash flow — 3-year totaln/aNeutralNot available.
39Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)n/aNeutralNot available.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#PointReadingTagCommentary
40Dividend payout ratio FY2664%NeutralThe company paid out about 64% of FY26 profit as dividends.
41Dividend consistency (3 years)96% / 117% / 64%BullishPayout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year.
42Share capital change (FY25→FY26)+0.0%NeutralPaid-up equity capital changed +0.0% (₹235 cr → ₹235 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution.

G. Ownership

#PointReadingTagCommentary
43Promoter holding61.90% (+0.00 pts YoY)NeutralPromoters owned 61.90% at Mar 2026 versus 61.90% a year earlier.
44Foreign institutional holding10.10% (-0.52 pts YoY)NeutralFIIs held 10.10% at Mar 2026, down from 10.62% a year before.
45Domestic institutional holding16.33% (+0.85 pts YoY)NeutralMutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 16.33%, up from 15.48%.
46Number of shareholders11.1 lakh (-10.3% YoY)NeutralThe shareholder count moved from 12.3 lakh to 11.1 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47Promoter pledgenone reportedNeutralOur source showed no pledged promoter shares.

H. Quality & summary

#PointReadingTagCommentary
48Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)6/8NeutralPassed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, leverage fell, ROA improved, asset turnover improved, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: CFO > net profit, operating margin improved.
49Automated screen flags2 strength(s) · 3 weakness(es)NeutralStrengths: Company is almost debt free; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 92.4%. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 8.85 times its book value; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 6.51% over past five years; Earnings include an other income of Rs.4,933 Cr. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
50Fundamental summary6 bullish · 2 bearish · 35 neutral · 6 cautionBullishOn the numbers published by 30 Jun 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 33.0×, P/B 10.21×. This describes the data, not a recommendation.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 1 Apr – 30 Jun 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

What happened next (30 Jun 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)

Later news

Educational summary. On 30 Jun 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -13.3% against -6.0% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Hindustan Unilever today.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 03 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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