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Private-sector bank Historical case study · data as of 30 Jun 2026 · published 03 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

ICICI Bank — 100-point case study

How ICICI Bank looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 30 Jun 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: ICICIBANK · BSE: 532174
Close on 30 Jun 2026	₹1,375.20
Market cap then	₹9,86,919 crore
Valuation	P/E 17.0× · P/B 2.72×
Momentum	RSI (14) 66 · 1-year return -4.9%
Next 3 months	-4.7% vs Nifty 50 -6.0% (to 01 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

19 bullish · 25 neutral · 2 caution · 3 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Fundamental — 50 points

13 bullish · 33 neutral · 1 caution · 2 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 30 Jun 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope +0.62%/day	Bullish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.62% a day — a short-term uptrend.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return +9.9%	Bearish	The 100-session trend line was down (-0.07%/day) and the stock was +9.9% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return -4.9%	Neutral	Compared with a year earlier the price was -4.9%. Little net progress over twelve months.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 1,300.55 / 30W 1,326.57	Neutral	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 1,301.80→1,362.70; lows 1,223.30→1,213.70	Neutral	The two most recent swing points showed a higher high but a lower low — mixed structure.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	30.0	Bullish	ADX at 30.0 shows a strong trend in force. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 30.9 / –DI 16.0	Bullish	+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	1,318.04 (+4.3%)	Bullish	Close of 1,375.20 was 4.3% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	1,295.97 (+6.1%)	Bullish	Close of 1,375.20 was 6.1% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	1,345.73 (+2.2%)	Bullish	Close of 1,375.20 was 2.2% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 1,360.29 / 21E 1,330.34	Bullish	The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 10 Jun 2026.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bearish	The 50-day average was 3.7% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
13	50-day SMA slope	+1.5% in 20 sessions	Bullish	The 50-day average rose 1.5% over the past month — rising.
14	MA ribbon alignment	1,318 / 1,296 / 1,313 / 1,346	Neutral	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	1,311.79 (+4.8%)	Bullish	Anchored to the start of June, the volume-weighted average price was 1,311.79; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	65.9	Bullish	RSI at 65.9 showed positive momentum without being overbought.
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	bullish divergence	Bullish	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI made a higher low — selling momentum was fading.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD 28.30 / signal 21.57	Bullish	MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	7.07 → 6.72	Bearish	The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
20	MACD vs zero line	28.30	Bullish	MACD above zero means the 12-day EMA was above the 26-day EMA — a positive momentum regime.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 85.7 / %D 88.6	Caution	Slow stochastic at 85.7 was in overbought territory (>80).
22	Williams %R (14)	-21.7	Neutral	%R of -21.7 put the close in the middle of its 14-day range.
23	CCI (20)	95	Neutral	CCI at 95 was within the normal ±100 band.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	+3.6%	Bullish	Price changed +3.6% over ten sessions.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.78 (bands 1,216.50–1,419.58)	Neutral	%B of 0.78 — inside the bands, upper half.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 15.4% (82nd pct of 6M)	Neutral	Band width was at the 82nd percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
27	ATR (14)	₹26.75 (1.9% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹26.75, or 1.9% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	18.4% vs 1Y 18.5%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 18.4%, close to the one-year level of 18.5%.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	1,278.21–1,386.09	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	0.91	Neutral	A beta of 0.91 means the stock tended to move roughly in line with the Nifty 50 day to day.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 1.16× / 5-day 0.97×	Neutral	The final session traded 1.16× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.97× — normal participation.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 1.07	Neutral	Average volume on up days was 1.07× that on down days — balanced.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV rising	Bullish	OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	rising (20d)	Bullish	The A/D line rose, meaning closes tended to be in the upper part of daily ranges on meaningful volume.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	0.13	Bullish	CMF at +0.13 indicated net inflows.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	80.2	Caution	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 80.2 — overbought.
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹2,081 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹2,081 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — highly liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	1,366.87 / 1,231.29 / 1,187.60	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 1,366.87, 0.6% below the close, then 1,231.29, 1,187.60.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	1,415.29 / 1,497.25	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 1,415.29, 2.9% above the close, then 1,497.25.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 1,330.97 \| R1 1,448.23 \| S1 1,257.93	Neutral	Classic pivots from June's high/low/close gave a pivot of 1,330.97; the close was above it.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 1,248 \| 38.2% 1,286 \| 50.0% 1,316 \| 61.8% 1,346	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month fall from 1,443.90 to 1,187.60, the close was nearest the 61.8% retracement at 1,345.99.
42	52-week high / low	H 1,500.00 / L 1,187.60	Neutral	The close was 8.3% below the 52-week high and 15.8% above the 52-week low.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	none	Neutral	No unfilled price gaps in the last six months.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend	Neutral	Rule-based pattern scan: counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 1,213.70–1,404.00	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 1,213.70–1,404.00.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary red candle	Neutral	On 30 Jun the candle opened 1,402.00, ranged 1,366.10–1,402.00 and closed 1,375.20: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 1,278.85–1,290.35; Tenkan 1,367.70 / Kijun 1,308.85	Bullish	Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M +8.1% / 3M +5.7%	Bullish	The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 5.7 points over three months and outperformed by 8.1 points over one month.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty Bank	3M +0.5%	Neutral	Against its sector index (Nifty Bank) the stock was 0.5 points ahead over three months.
50	Technical summary	19 bullish · 3 bearish · 25 neutral · 2 caution	Bullish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 1,366.87, resistance 1,415.29. This is a description of the chart on 30 Jun 2026, not a forecast.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 30 Jun 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 30 Jun 2026 close.

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	17.0×	Neutral	At ₹1,375.20 the market valued the company at about ₹9,86,919 crore, or 17.0× the ₹57,936 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
2	Price / Book	2.72×	Neutral	Market cap was 2.72× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹3,63,060 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
3	Price / Revenue (interest earned)	5.06×	Neutral	Market cap was 5.06× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹1,95,219 crore.
4	Profit / Book (earnings power)	16.0%	Neutral	Trailing profit was 16.0% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 2.72× for.
5	Earnings yield	5.9%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹5.9 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	0.96	Bullish	P/E of 17.0 divided by 3-year profit growth of 17.8% a year gives a PEG of 0.96. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	0.80%	Neutral	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹11 a share, a 0.80% yield on the ₹1,375.20 price.
8	Market capitalisation	₹9,86,919 cr	Neutral	At about ₹9.87 lakh crore the company was a large-cap, among the largest listed companies in India.
9	Graham number vs price	₹958.60 vs ₹1,375.20	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹958.60; the price was 43% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+4.8%	Neutral	Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹1,95,218 crore, +4.8% versus FY25.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+2.5%	Neutral	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹49,594 crore of revenue, +2.5% on the same quarter a year earlier.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+6.2%	Neutral	FY26 net profit was ₹57,936 crore, +6.2% on FY25's ₹54,569 crore.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	+9.2%	Neutral	Quarterly profit was ₹15,681 crore versus ₹14,354 crore a year earlier (+9.2%).
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	17.3%	Bullish	Revenue compounded at 17.3% a year from FY23 to FY26.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	17.8%	Bullish	Net profit compounded at 17.8% a year from FY23 to FY26.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	17.0%	Bullish	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 17.0% a year.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+5.7%	Neutral	Reported EPS went from ₹71.65 to ₹75.71 (+5.7%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Net interest margin (Q4 FY26)	4.32%	Bullish	NIM — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was 4.32% in Jan–Mar 2026 (as reported). Above ~3.5% is strong for an Indian bank.
19	Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)	+8.4%	Neutral	Core interest income after interest expense was ₹22,979 crore, +8.4% year on year (standalone, as reported).
20	Net profit margin FY26	29.7%	Neutral	₹29.7 of every ₹100 of interest-led revenue ended up as net profit in FY26.
21	Return on equity FY26	17.1%	Neutral	FY26 profit was 17.1% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak.
22	Leverage (assets ÷ equity)	8.0×	Neutral	Total assets were 8.0× equity — normal for banks, which fund most assets with deposits.
23	Return on assets FY26	1.99%	Bullish	Net profit was 1.99% of total assets. For banks, ROA above 1% is considered healthy.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	25%	Neutral	The company paid about 25% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%.
25	Q4 FY26 standalone profit (reported)	₹13,702 cr (+8.5%)	Neutral	The bank's own (standalone) Jan–Mar 2026 profit as reported was ₹13,702 crore, +8.5% year on year.

D. Asset quality & capital

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Gross NPA (Q4 FY26)	1.40%	Bullish	Gross non-performing assets were 1.40% of loans — low by Indian standards.
27	Net NPA (Q4 FY26)	0.33%	Bullish	After provisions, net NPAs were 0.33% of loans.
28	CASA ratio	38.6%	Neutral	Low-cost current and savings deposits made up 38.6% of deposits — a higher CASA means cheaper funding.
29	Capital adequacy (CRAR)	17.18%	Bullish	Capital adequacy was 17.18%, comfortably above the RBI minimum of 11.5% (incl. buffer).
30	Loan (advances) growth	+15.8%	Bullish	Advances grew +15.8% year on year (as reported).
31	Deposit growth	+11.4%	Neutral	Deposits grew +11.4% year on year (as reported).
32	Deposit base (consolidated)	₹18.30 lakh cr	Neutral	Consolidated deposits were ₹18,30,020 crore at Mar 2026, +11.5% on a year earlier.
33	Book value growth	+15.7%	Bullish	Equity grew +15.7% to ₹3,63,060 crore — banks need book growth to support loan growth.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹67,325 cr	Neutral	Operating cash flow was ₹67,325 crore. For banks this swings with deposit and loan flows, so it says little about profitability.
35	Investing cash flow FY26	₹-11,708 cr	Neutral	Investing flows for banks mostly reflect securities and fixed-asset purchases.
36	Financing cash flow FY26	₹-4,661 cr	Neutral	Financing flows reflect borrowings raised/repaid and dividends paid.
37	Net cash flow FY26	₹50,957 cr	Neutral	Overall cash and balances changed by ₹50,957 crore in FY26.
38	Investment book growth	-1.8%	Neutral	The investment portfolio (mostly government securities) moved -1.8% to ₹8,70,720 crore.
39	Loan growth minus deposit growth	+4.4 pts	Caution	Loans grew 15.8% and deposits 11.4%. When loans outpace deposits for long, banks must pay up for funding — a margin risk.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	16%	Neutral	The company paid out about 16% of FY26 profit as dividends.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	16% / 15% / 16%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+0.5%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital changed +0.5% (₹1,425 cr → ₹1,432 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	No promoter (widely held)	Neutral	The company has no identified promoter group — ownership is spread among institutions and the public.
44	Foreign institutional holding	34.48% (-11.35 pts YoY)	Bearish	FIIs held 34.48% at Mar 2026, down from 45.83% a year before.
45	Domestic institutional holding	39.94% (-4.83 pts YoY)	Bearish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 39.94%, down from 44.77%.
46	Number of shareholders	20.8 lakh (+9.5% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 19.0 lakh to 20.8 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Not applicable — no promoter group.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	8/8	Bullish	Passed: positive profit, profit grew, ROA ≥ 1%, gross NPA < 3%, net NPA < 1%, CRAR ≥ 14%, ROE ≥ 12%, no meaningful dilution (<3%).
49	Automated screen flags	0 strength(s) · 4 weakness(es)	Neutral	No strengths flagged. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; Contingent liabilities of Rs.65,46,110 Cr; Earnings include an other income of Rs.1,18,852 Cr; Working capital days have increased from 55.4 days to 108 days. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
50	Fundamental summary	13 bullish · 2 bearish · 33 neutral · 1 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 30 Jun 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 17.0×, P/B 2.72×. This describes the data, not a recommendation.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 1 Apr – 30 Jun 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

18 Apr 2026 ICICI Bank Q4 FY26 standalone profit rises 8.5% to Rs 13,702 crore; Rs 12 dividend recommended — Standalone PAT was Rs 13,702 crore (+8.5% YoY) with NII of Rs 22,979 crore (+8.4%) and NIM of 4.32%; gross NPA fell to 1.40% and net NPA to 0.33%. The board recommended a dividend of Rs 12 per share for FY2026. source
18 Apr 2026 ICICI Bank board approves debt fundraising of up to Rs 25,000 crore domestically and USD 1.5 billion overseas — Alongside Q4 results, the board approved domestic debt issuance up to Rs 25,000 crore via private placement and authorised raising up to USD 1.5 billion through overseas bonds, notes or certificates of deposit. source
22 May 2026 RBI approves reappointment of Sandeep Bakhshi as ICICI Bank MD & CEO for two more years — The RBI approved Sandeep Bakhshi's reappointment as CEO & MD for a further two-year term from 4 October 2026 to 3 October 2028; the board had approved the reappointment on 17 January 2026. source
24 Jun 2026 ICICI Bank gets RBI approval to raise stake in ICICI Prudential Life by up to 2% — ICICI Bank received RBI authorisation to acquire up to an additional 2.0% shareholding in ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, keeping its ownership above 50%. source

What happened next (30 Jun 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹1,375.20 to ₹1,310.60 by 01 Oct 2026 (-4.7%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.0% — outperforming by 1.4 points.
Highest ₹1,480.00 on 20 Jul 2026; lowest ₹1,291.00 on 29 Sep 2026.
S1 1,366.87: broken on a closing basis on 15 Sep 2026.
S2 1,231.29: held on a closing basis.
R1 1,415.29: cleared on a closing basis on 06 Jul 2026.
R2 1,497.25: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 15 Sep 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 18 Jul 2026): standalone profit ₹14,805 crore (+15.9% YoY), NIM 4.36%, gross NPA 1.38%, net NPA 0.35%.
Shareholding Mar → Jun 2026: FIIs 34.48% → 33.79%, DIIs 39.94% → 42.32%.

Later news

01 Jul 2026 ICICI Bank fixes 3 August 2026 as record date for Rs 12 final dividend; AGM on 21 August — The bank set Monday 3 August 2026 as the record date for its Rs 12 per share FY26 dividend, subject to approval at the AGM on 21 August 2026 held via video conferencing. source
18 Jul 2026 ICICI Bank Q1 FY27 standalone profit up 15.9% to Rs 14,805 crore; NII up 12.7% — Standalone PAT was Rs 14,805 crore (+15.9% YoY), NII Rs 24,384 crore (+12.7%), NIM 4.36%, gross NPA 1.38% and net NPA 0.35%; total advances grew 19.6% and deposits 14.0% YoY. Consolidated PAT was Rs 15,440 crore. source
18 Jul 2026 ICICI Bank board approves raising up to USD 2.5 billion via overseas debt — The board approved raising up to USD 2.50 billion through bonds, notes or offshore certificates of deposit in overseas markets. source
21 Aug 2026 ICICI Bank board approves revised overseas borrowing limit of up to USD 5 billion — The bank disclosed board approval for a revised borrowing limit of up to USD 5 billion through bonds, notes and offshore certificates of deposit in overseas markets; no issuance details were given. source
02 Sep 2026 ICICI Bank completes purchase of additional 2% stake in ICICI Prudential Life for Rs 1,470 crore — ICICI Bank completed the acquisition of a further 2% stake in ICICI Prudential Life Insurance for Rs 1,470 crore, taking its holding to about 52.8%. source
02 Sep 2026 ICICI Bank discloses USD 17.88 billion of FCNR(B) deposits mobilised under RBI swap facility — The bank reported USD 17.88 billion of gross FCNR(B) deposit mobilisation under the RBI swap facility as of 31 August 2026, and said it issued about USD 3.55 billion of USD bonds in July-August 2026. source

Educational summary. On 30 Jun 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -4.7% against -6.0% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold ICICI Bank today.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 03 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50, Nifty Bank via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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