Private-sector bankHistorical case study · data as of 13 Jul 2026 · published 16 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
IDFC First Bank — 100-point case study
How IDFC First Bank looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 13 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Screener had no quarterly or shareholding tables, so quarterly figures are the bank's standalone numbers via MarketsMojo and shareholding is from Pocketful. The 23 Feb 2026 fall of about 16% was a real price move, not a corporate action.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 13 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.16%/day
Bullish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.16% a day — a short-term uptrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +23.4%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.12%/day) and the stock was +23.4% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +7.1%
Neutral
Compared with a year earlier the price was +7.1%. Little net progress over twelve months.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 75.65 / 30W 74.93
Bullish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 73.08→81.46; lows 66.69→66.16
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a higher high but a lower low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
37.6
Bullish
ADX at 37.6 shows a strong trend in force. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 27.2 / –DI 14.8
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
79.23 (+1.7%)
Bullish
Close of 80.58 was 1.7% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
73.91 (+9.0%)
Bullish
Close of 80.58 was 9.0% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
75.50 (+6.7%)
Bullish
Close of 80.58 was 6.7% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 79.82 / 21E 78.39
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 17 Apr 2026.
The 50-day average was 2.1% below the 200-day. The most recent signal was a death cross on 30 Mar 2026.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+7.9% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 7.9% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
79 / 74 / 71 / 75
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
79.89 (+0.9%)
Bullish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 79.89; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
61.5
Bullish
RSI at 61.5 showed positive momentum without being overbought.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 1.82 / signal 2.04
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-0.05 → -0.22
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.79 (bands 76.92–81.55)
Neutral
%B of 0.79 — inside the bands, upper half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 5.9% (10th pct of 6M)
Caution
Band width was at the 10th percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown).
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹1.83 (2.3% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹1.83, or 2.3% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
26.0% vs 1Y 31.6%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 26.0%, close to the one-year level of 31.6%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
74.88–82.16
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.29
Neutral
A beta of 1.29 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.57× / 5-day 0.63×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.57× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.63× — lighter than usual participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 0.88
Neutral
Average volume on up days was 0.88× that on down days — balanced.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹192 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
78.42 / 71.74 / 67.70
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 78.42, 2.8% below the close, then 71.74, 67.70.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
82.18 / 86.17
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 82.18, 2.0% above the close, then 86.17.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 79.94 | R1 82.41 | S1 78.11
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 79.94; the close was above it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 65 | 38.2% 69 | 50.0% 72 | 61.8% 76
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month fall from 86.79 to 58.08, the close was nearest the 61.8% retracement at 75.82.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 87.00 / L 58.08
Neutral
The close was 7.4% below the 52-week high and 38.7% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
4 open; latest gap-up 10 Jul at 79.75
Neutral
There were 4 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 10 Jul 2026, left an open level at 79.75 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
rising channel
Bullish
Rule-based pattern scan: rising channel — successive higher highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 73.35–81.77
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 73.35–81.77.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Inside bar
Neutral
On 13 Jul the candle opened 79.99, ranged 79.86–80.79 and closed 80.58: Inside bar — range contraction. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 65.58–70.11; Tenkan 79.62 / Kijun 76.44
Bullish
Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M +5.9% / 3M +21.6%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 21.6 points over three months and outperformed by 5.9 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty Bank
3M +17.4%
Bullish
Against its sector index (Nifty Bank) the stock was 17.4 points ahead over three months.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
20 bullish · 5 bearish · 23 neutral · 1 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 78.42, resistance 82.18. This is a description of the chart on 13 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 13 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 13 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
42.4×
Neutral
At ₹80.58 the market valued the company at about ₹69,348 crore, or 42.4× the ₹1,636 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
1.47×
Neutral
Market cap was 1.47× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹47,116 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Revenue (interest earned)
1.71×
Neutral
Market cap was 1.71× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹40,549 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
Profit / Book (earnings power)
3.5%
Neutral
Trailing profit was 3.5% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 1.47× for.
How to read: Information only.
5
Earnings yield
2.4%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹2.4 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
n/m
Neutral
PEG is not meaningful because 3-year profit growth was -13.5%.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
n/a
Neutral
Dividend history in our data window was not available.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹69,348 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.69 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹48.40 vs ₹80.58
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹48.40; the price was 67% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+11.1%
Bullish
Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹40,549 crore, +11.1% versus FY25.
NIM — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was 5.93% in Jan–Mar 2026 (as reported). Above ~3.5% is strong for an Indian bank.
Bullish 3.5% or more · Bearish below 3.0% · Neutral 3.0–3.5%.
19
Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)
+15.7%
Bullish
Core interest income after interest expense was ₹5,677 crore, +15.7% year on year (standalone, as reported).
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
0 strength(s) · 6 weakness(es)
Neutral
No strengths flagged. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; Tax rate seems low; Company has a low return on equity of 5.64% over last 3 years; Contingent liabilities of Rs.4,40,995 Cr; Earnings include an other income of Rs.7,874 Cr; Dividend payout has been low at 8.54% of profits over last 3 years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
12 bullish · 5 bearish · 31 neutral · 1 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 13 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 42.4×, P/B 1.47×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 13 Apr 2026 – 13 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
25 Apr 2026IDFC FIRST Bank reports Q4 FY26 results; net profit Rs 319 crore — Standalone Q4 FY26 net profit rose 4.9% YoY to Rs 318.9 crore and NII rose 15.7% to Rs 5,677 crore; GNPA improved to 1.61% and NNPA to 0.48%. Profit included a one-off fraud-related expense. source
27 Apr 2026Q4 FY26: NII up 15.7% to Rs 5,677 crore, NIM at 5.93% — Coverage of the bank's Q4 FY26 numbers noted NIM of 5.93% versus 5.95% a year earlier and gross NPA down to 1.61% from 1.89%. source
22 May 2026IDFC FIRST Bank schedules Q4 FY26 analyst and investor meets — The bank disclosed meetings with analysts and institutional investors from May 27 to June 8, 2026 in Mumbai, Singapore and London. source
22 Jun 2026IDFC First Bank shares rise for third straight session — The stock traded near Rs 80.8, up 2.7% intraday, having gained about 16% over the prior month. source
03 Jul 2026Q1 FY27 business update: deposits up 17.7%, CASA ratio 50.8% — Provisional figures showed total deposits of Rs 3,11,874 crore (+17.7% YoY) and loans and advances of Rs 3,05,488 crore (+20.6% YoY) as of June 30, 2026. source
What happened next (13 Jul 2026 → 15 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹80.58 to ₹79.07 by 15 Oct 2026 (-1.9%) while the Nifty 50 moved -5.0% — outperforming by 3.1 points.
Highest ₹89.61 on 23 Sep 2026; lowest ₹78.01 on 08 Oct 2026.
S1 78.42: held on a closing basis.
S2 71.74: held on a closing basis.
R1 82.18: cleared on a closing basis on 27 Jul 2026.
R2 86.17: cleared on a closing basis on 13 Aug 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
25 Jul 2026IDFC FIRST Bank Q1 FY27 net profit rises 132% to Rs 1,075 crore — Standalone net profit was Rs 1,074.96 crore versus Rs 462.57 crore a year earlier; GNPA eased to 1.51% and NNPA to 0.44%. source
19 Aug 2026IDFC FIRST Bank makes maiden US$ bond issuance — The bank accessed international debt markets with a 3-year senior fixed-rate US dollar bond at a 5.625% coupon, its first such issue. source
03 Sep 2026IDFC FIRST Bank discloses mobilisation of FCNR(B) deposits — In a Regulation 30 filing the bank reported raising about US$3.57 billion from NRI customers under the RBI FCNR(B) swap window. source
05 Oct 2026Q2 FY27 business update: advances up 20.4%, deposits up 17% — Provisional domestic loans and advances were Rs 3,13,864 crore (+20.4% YoY) and domestic deposits Rs 3,23,697 crore (+17.0%), with CASA ratio at 51.3%. source
12 Oct 2026Board meeting on October 24 to consider Q2 FY27 results — The bank informed exchanges that its board will meet on October 24, 2026 to approve results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. source
Educational summary. On 13 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -1.9% against -5.0% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold IDFC First Bank today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 16 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50, Nifty Bank via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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