Public-sector bankHistorical case study · data as of 13 Jul 2026 · published 16 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Indian Bank — 100-point case study
How Indian Bank looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 13 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Codes
NSE: INDIANB · BSE: 532814
Close on 13 Jul 2026
₹842.55
Market cap then
₹1,13,422 crore
Valuation
P/E 9.3× · P/B 1.42×
Momentum
RSI (14) 53 · 1-year return +33.4%
Next 3 months
-0.9% vs Nifty 50 -5.0% (to 15 Oct 2026)
Scorecard
Technical — 50 points
12 bullish · 21 neutral · 1 caution · 15 bearish — the picture was mixed.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Screener had no quarterly or shareholding tables, so quarterly figures are the bank's standalone numbers via MarketsMojo and shareholding is from Upstox; annual figures are consolidated. Note that Q1 FY27 results came out on 10 July 2026 — three days before the snapshot — while this case study treats Q4 FY26 as the latest quarter, so the June-quarter numbers appear under what happened next.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 13 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope -0.41%/day
Bearish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.41% a day — a short-term downtrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return -10.5%
Bearish
The 100-session trend line was down (-0.16%/day) and the stock was -10.5% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +33.4%
Bullish
Compared with a year earlier the price was +33.4%. A strong positive year.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 838.20 / 30W 871.37
Neutral
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 878.00→884.95; lows 805.85→817.45
Bullish
The two most recent swing points showed higher swing highs and higher swing lows — classic uptrend structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
20.6
Bullish
ADX at 20.6 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 28.3 / –DI 19.5
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
831.34 (+1.3%)
Bullish
Close of 842.55 was 1.3% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
833.71 (+1.1%)
Bullish
Close of 842.55 was 1.1% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
848.81 (-0.7%)
Bearish
Close of 842.55 was 0.7% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 820.42 / 21E 825.48
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 29 Jun 2026.
The 50-day average was 1.8% below the 200-day. The most recent signal was a death cross on 06 Jul 2026.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
-4.0% in 20 sessions
Bearish
The 50-day average fell 4.0% over the past month — declining.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
831 / 834 / 875 / 849
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
821.05 (+2.6%)
Bullish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 821.05; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
53.1
Neutral
RSI at 53.1 was in the neutral 45–55 zone.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -7.38 / signal -9.91
Bullish
MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-6.50 → 2.53
Bullish
The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.59 (bands 766.24–896.44)
Neutral
%B of 0.59 — inside the bands, upper half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 15.7% (56th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 56th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹27.12 (3.2% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹27.12, or 3.2% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
41.5% vs 1Y 33.0%
Caution
Annualised 30-day volatility was 41.5%, well above the one-year level of 33.0%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
767.88–881.98
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.41
Neutral
A beta of 1.41 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 1.10× / 5-day 1.78×
Neutral
The final session traded 1.10× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.78× — heavier than usual participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.32
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 1.32× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV falling
Bearish
OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹306 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
833.22 / 807.84 / 765.59
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 833.22, 1.1% below the close, then 807.84, 765.59.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
853.95 / 895.65 / 1,000.45
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 853.95, 1.4% above the close, then 895.65, 1,000.45.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 828.90 | R1 888.55 | S1 782.90
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 828.90; the close was above it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 824 | 38.2% 858 | 50.0% 885 | 61.8% 912
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month fall from 1,000.90 to 769.25, the close was nearest the 38.2% retracement at 857.74.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 1,000.90 / L 606.00
Neutral
The close was 15.8% below the 52-week high and 39.0% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
none
Neutral
No unfilled price gaps in the last six months.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
falling channel
Bearish
Rule-based pattern scan: falling channel — successive lower highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 769.25–884.95
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 769.25–884.95.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Inside bar
Neutral
On 13 Jul the candle opened 868.00, ranged 839.35–871.50 and closed 842.55: Inside bar — range contraction. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 846.70–901.12; Tenkan 822.08 / Kijun 827.10
Bearish
Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -2.5% / 3M -12.4%
Bearish
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 12.4 points over three months and underperformed by 2.5 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty Bank
3M -16.6%
Bearish
Against its sector index (Nifty Bank) the stock was 16.6 points behind over three months.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
12 bullish · 15 bearish · 21 neutral · 1 caution
Neutral
Across the 49 readings the technical picture was mixed. Levels that mattered: support 833.22, resistance 853.95. This is a description of the chart on 13 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 13 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 13 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
9.3×
Neutral
At ₹842.55 the market valued the company at about ₹1,13,422 crore, or 9.3× the ₹12,156 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
1.42×
Neutral
Market cap was 1.42× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹80,043 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Revenue (interest earned)
1.68×
Neutral
Market cap was 1.68× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹67,451 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
Profit / Book (earnings power)
15.2%
Neutral
Trailing profit was 15.2% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 1.42× for.
How to read: Information only.
5
Earnings yield
10.7%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹10.7 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
0.33
Bullish
P/E of 9.3 divided by 3-year profit growth of 28.1% a year gives a PEG of 0.33. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
2.17%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹18.25 a share, a 2.17% yield on the ₹842.55 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹1,13,422 cr
Neutral
At about ₹1.13 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹1,099.11 vs ₹842.55
Bullish
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹1,099.11; the price was 23% below it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+8.8%
Neutral
Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹67,504 crore, +8.8% versus FY25.
NIM — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was 3.35% in Jan–Mar 2026 (as reported). Above ~3.5% is strong for an Indian bank.
Bullish 3.5% or more · Bearish below 3.0% · Neutral 3.0–3.5%.
19
Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)
+11.3%
Bullish
Core interest income after interest expense was ₹7,110 crore, +11.3% year on year (standalone, as reported).
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
2 strength(s) · 5 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company has delivered good profit growth of 30.0% CAGR over last 5 years; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 19.9%. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 11.5% over past five years; Contingent liabilities of Rs.2,66,319 Cr; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost; Working capital days have increased from 46.8 days to 85.5 days. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
12 bullish · 0 bearish · 37 neutral · 0 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 13 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 9.3×, P/B 1.42×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 13 Apr 2026 – 13 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
29 Apr 2026Indian Bank Q4 FY26 net profit rises 5% to Rs 3,103 crore — Indian Bank reported standalone Q4 FY26 net profit of Rs 3,103 crore, up about 5% YoY, with NII up 11.3% to Rs 7,109 crore and gross NPA down to 1.98% from 3.09%. source
29 Apr 2026Indian Bank declares dividend of Rs 18.25 per share for FY26 — Along with Q4 results, the board recommended a dividend of Rs 18.25 per equity share for FY 2025-26; full-year FY26 net profit was Rs 12,156 crore, up 11%. source
02 May 2026Indian Bank announces senior management changes effective May 1 — The bank reassigned Chief General Manager portfolios, elevating Deepak Gupta to CGM for corporate credit, while CGM Sukh Sagar Prasad Roy retired on superannuation. source
03 May 2026Indian Bank trims short-tenor T-Bill linked lending rates by 5 bps — Indian Bank cut its Treasury Bills Linked Lending Rates by 5 basis points for tenors up to six months effective May 3, 2026, leaving MCLR and other benchmark rates unchanged. source
10 Jul 2026Indian Bank Q1 FY27 net profit rises 10% to Rs 3,273 crore — Standalone Q1 FY27 net profit rose 10.1% YoY to Rs 3,273 crore; NII grew 16.9% to Rs 7,435 crore and gross NPA improved to 1.86% from 3.01%. source
10 Jul 2026Indian Bank shares rise sharply after Q1 results — The stock traded about 7% higher intraday on July 10 after the Q1 FY27 results, with domestic NIM at 3.41% and gross advances up 13.9% YoY. source
What happened next (13 Jul 2026 → 15 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹842.55 to ₹835.00 by 15 Oct 2026 (-0.9%) while the Nifty 50 moved -5.0% — outperforming by 4.1 points.
Highest ₹906.70 on 03 Sep 2026; lowest ₹786.85 on 01 Oct 2026.
S1 833.22: broken on a closing basis on 15 Jul 2026.
S2 807.84: broken on a closing basis on 28 Sep 2026.
R1 853.95: cleared on a closing basis on 20 Jul 2026.
R2 895.65: cleared on a closing basis on 12 Aug 2026.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and crossed above on 20 Jul 2026.
19 Aug 2026Indian Bank raises $400 million in long-term dollar funds — Indian Bank disclosed that it raised $400 million through a four-year facility agreement dated August 18, 2026. source
09 Sep 2026Indian Bank discloses bank union strike notice for September-October — The bank informed exchanges of a UFBU strike notice covering September 11, September 28-30 and an open-ended strike from October 26, 2026. source
15 Sep 2026Indian Bank pays Rs 362 crore interest on infrastructure bonds — Indian Bank paid about Rs 362 crore of annual interest on its Long Term Infrastructure Bonds Series I on September 15, 2026. source
02 Oct 2026Indian Bank Q2 FY27 business update: advances up 16.6% YoY — Provisional figures for the September 2026 quarter showed gross advances of Rs 7.23 lakh crore (up 16.6% YoY) and deposits of Rs 8.73 lakh crore (up 12.4% YoY), with domestic CASA at 39.28%. source
Educational summary. On 13 Jul 2026 the technical picture was mixed and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -0.9% against -5.0% for the Nifty 50. A mixed chart gave no clear message, and the outcome shows why mixed readings are hard to act on. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Indian Bank today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 16 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50, Nifty Bank via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
More case studies today
₹756.25close 13 Jul
NBFC (consumer & business loans)NSE: HDBFSData as of 13 Jul 2026