FMCG & cigarettes Historical case study · data as of 30 Jun 2026 · published 03 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

ITC — 100-point case study

How ITC looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 30 Jun 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: ITC · BSE: 500875
Close on 30 Jun 2026	₹286.95
Market cap then	₹3,59,423 crore
Valuation	P/E 17.1× · P/B 4.96×
Momentum	RSI (14) 43 · 1-year return -31.1%
Next 3 months	-10.8% vs Nifty 50 -6.0% (to 01 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

9 bullish · 20 neutral · 0 caution · 20 bearish — the picture leaned negative.

Fundamental — 50 points

13 bullish · 27 neutral · 5 caution · 4 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Data note: FY25 and the Jan–Mar 2025 quarter include a large one-off gain linked to the ITC Hotels demerger (Jan 2025), which makes FY26 profit growth look much worse than the underlying business.

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 30 Jun 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope +0.24%/day	Bullish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.24% a day — a short-term uptrend.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return -1.5%	Bearish	The 100-session trend line was down (-0.11%/day) and the stock was -1.5% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return -31.1%	Bearish	Compared with a year earlier the price was -31.1%. A weak year for the stock.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 295.56 / 30W 317.15	Bearish	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 314.25→294.55; lows 300.10→275.05	Bearish	The two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	15.9	Neutral	ADX at 15.9 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 18.3 / –DI 21.9	Bearish	–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	286.25 (+0.2%)	Bullish	Close of 286.95 was 0.2% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	297.52 (-3.6%)	Bearish	Close of 286.95 was 3.6% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	348.09 (-17.6%)	Bearish	Close of 286.95 was 17.6% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 289.30 / 21E 290.03	Bearish	The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 25 May 2026.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bearish	The 50-day average was 14.5% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
13	50-day SMA slope	-1.6% in 20 sessions	Bearish	The 50-day average fell 1.6% over the past month — declining.
14	MA ribbon alignment	286 / 298 / 303 / 348	Bearish	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bearish (20 < 50 < 100 < 200).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	284.55 (+0.8%)	Bullish	Anchored to the start of June, the volume-weighted average price was 284.55; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	42.7	Bearish	RSI at 42.7 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	bullish divergence	Bullish	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI made a higher low — selling momentum was fading.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD -1.61 / signal -2.52	Bullish	MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	1.57 → 0.91	Bearish	The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
20	MACD vs zero line	-1.61	Bearish	MACD below zero means the 12-day EMA was below the 26-day EMA — a negative momentum regime.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 68.1 / %D 73.3	Bearish	Slow stochastic at 68.1 was mid-range with %K below %D.
22	Williams %R (14)	-47.8	Neutral	%R of -47.8 put the close in the middle of its 14-day range.
23	CCI (20)	28	Neutral	CCI at 28 was within the normal ±100 band.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	-0.3%	Neutral	Price changed -0.3% over ten sessions.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.53 (bands 276.26–296.25)	Neutral	%B of 0.53 — inside the bands, upper half.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 7.0% (25th pct of 6M)	Neutral	Band width was at the 25th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
27	ATR (14)	₹4.57 (1.6% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹4.57, or 1.6% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	18.8% vs 1Y 19.5%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 18.8%, close to the one-year level of 19.5%.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	281.24–298.54	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	0.56	Neutral	A beta of 0.56 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 1.28× / 5-day 0.78×	Neutral	The final session traded 1.28× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.78× — lighter than usual participation.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 0.99	Neutral	Average volume on up days was 0.99× that on down days — balanced.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV rising	Bullish	OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	rising (20d)	Bullish	The A/D line rose, meaning closes tended to be in the upper part of daily ranges on meaningful volume.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	0.15	Bullish	CMF at +0.15 indicated net inflows.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	60.5	Bullish	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 60.5.
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹404 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹404 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	275.05	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 275.05, 4.3% below the close.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	294.55 / 311.72 / 326.92	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 294.55, 2.6% above the close, then 311.72, 326.92.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 285.52 \| R1 295.98 \| S1 276.48	Neutral	Classic pivots from June's high/low/close gave a pivot of 285.52; the close was above it.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 307 \| 38.2% 326 \| 50.0% 342 \| 61.8% 358	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month fall from 409.50 to 275.05, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 306.78.
42	52-week high / low	H 427.00 / L 275.05	Bearish	The close was 32.8% below the 52-week high and 4.3% above the 52-week low.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	2 open; latest gap-down 27 May at 301.10	Neutral	There were 2 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 27 May 2026, left an open level at 301.10 that price had not revisited.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend	Neutral	Rule-based pattern scan: counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 275.05–294.55	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 275.05–294.55.
46	Latest candlestick	Bearish engulfing	Bearish	On 30 Jun the candle opened 291.50, ranged 285.50–291.60 and closed 286.95: Bearish engulfing. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 302.45–308.09; Tenkan 290.02 / Kijun 291.02	Bearish	Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M -1.3% / 3M -5.6%	Bearish	The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 5.6 points over three months and underperformed by 1.3 points over one month.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M -20.4%	Bearish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 20.4 points behind the Nifty 50.
50	Technical summary	9 bullish · 20 bearish · 20 neutral · 0 caution	Bearish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 275.05, resistance 294.55. This is a description of the chart on 30 Jun 2026, not a forecast.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 30 Jun 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 30 Jun 2026 close.

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	17.1×	Neutral	At ₹286.95 the market valued the company at about ₹3,59,423 crore, or 17.1× the ₹21,018 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
2	Price / Book	4.96×	Neutral	Market cap was 4.96× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹72,507 crore.
3	Price / Sales	4.56×	Neutral	The company was valued at 4.56× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹78,869 crore.
4	EV / EBITDA (approx.)	13.2×	Neutral	Enterprise value (market cap + ₹2,399 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 13.2× trailing operating profit of ₹27,318 crore.
5	Earnings yield	5.8%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹5.8 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	6.65	Caution	P/E of 17.1 divided by 3-year profit growth of 2.6% a year gives a PEG of 6.65. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Note: the Mar 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹15,391 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	5.05%	Bullish	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹14.5 a share, a 5.05% yield on the ₹286.95 price.
8	Market capitalisation	₹3,59,423 cr	Neutral	At about ₹3.59 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
9	Graham number vs price	₹147.84 vs ₹286.95	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹147.84; the price was 94% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+4.7%	Neutral	Revenue for FY26 was ₹78,868 crore, +4.7% versus FY25.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	-5.0%	Bearish	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹17,825 crore of revenue, -5.0% on the same quarter a year earlier.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	-40.0%	Caution	FY26 net profit was ₹21,018 crore, -40.0% on FY25's ₹35,052 crore. Note: the Mar 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹15,391 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	-72.4%	Caution	Quarterly profit was ₹5,470 crore versus ₹19,808 crore a year earlier (-72.4%). Note: the Mar 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹15,391 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	3.6%	Bearish	Revenue compounded at 3.6% a year from FY23 to FY26.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	2.6%	Caution	Net profit compounded at 2.6% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: the Mar 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹15,391 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	9.9%	Neutral	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 9.9% a year.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	-40.5%	Caution	Reported EPS went from ₹27.77 to ₹16.51 (-40.5%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Note: the Mar 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹15,391 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Operating margin FY26	35%	Neutral	Operating profit (EBITDA) was 35% of sales in FY26 versus 34% in FY25.
19	Operating margin trend (4 quarters)	32% → 34% → 34% → 39%	Bullish	Quarterly margins moved from 32% to 39% over the last four quarters — expanding.
20	Net profit margin FY26	26.6%	Neutral	₹26.6 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26.
21	Return on equity FY26	29.5%	Bullish	FY26 profit was 29.5% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak.
22	ROCE FY26	39%	Bullish	Return on capital employed (debt + equity) was 39% in FY26.
23	Return on assets FY26	22.45%	Neutral	Net profit was 22.45% of total assets.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	25%	Neutral	The company paid about 25% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%.
25	Other income share of pre-tax profit	9%	Neutral	Non-operating 'other income' of ₹2,523 crore made up 9% of pre-tax profit.

D. Balance sheet

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Debt / equity	0.03	Bullish	Borrowings of ₹2,399 crore were 0.03× equity — very low leverage.
27	Debt / EBITDA	0.09×	Bullish	Debt equalled 0.09 years of FY26 operating profit.
28	Interest coverage	330.8×	Bullish	Earnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 330.8 times.
29	Book value growth	+3.5%	Neutral	Shareholders' equity grew +3.5% from ₹70,030 crore to ₹72,507 crore in FY26.
30	Capital work in progress	₹1,602 cr (7% of fixed assets)	Neutral	Projects under construction (CWIP) were 7% of fixed assets — a modest pipeline.
31	Working capital days	47 days	Neutral	Working capital tied up equalled 47 days of sales (FY25: 45). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations.
32	Cash conversion cycle	164 days	Neutral	It took 164 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit.
33	Debtor days	18 (FY25 23)	Neutral	Customers took 18 days on average to pay, versus 23 a year earlier.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹18,464 cr	Bullish	The business generated ₹18,464 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹17,627 crore in FY25.
35	Free cash flow FY26	₹16,332 cr	Bullish	After capital spending, free cash flow was ₹16,332 crore.
36	Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)	0.88×	Neutral	Operating cash flow was 0.88× reported profit — reasonable cash backing.
37	Free-cash-flow yield	4.5%	Bullish	FY26 free cash flow was 4.5% of the snapshot market cap.
38	Free cash flow — 3-year total	₹45,580 cr	Bullish	Free cash flow over FY24–FY26 added up to ₹45,580 crore.
39	Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)	₹2,132 cr	Neutral	Implied capital expenditure was about ₹2,132 crore, 2.7% of sales.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	88%	Neutral	The company paid out about 88% of FY26 profit as dividends.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	84% / 52% / 88%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+0.2%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital changed +0.2% (₹1,251 cr → ₹1,253 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	No promoter (widely held)	Neutral	The company has no identified promoter group — ownership is spread among institutions and the public.
44	Foreign institutional holding	34.83% (-5.04 pts YoY)	Bearish	FIIs held 34.83% at Mar 2026, down from 39.87% a year before.
45	Domestic institutional holding	49.15% (+3.96 pts YoY)	Bullish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 49.15%, up from 45.19%.
46	Number of shareholders	40.4 lakh (+10.8% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 36.5 lakh to 40.4 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Not applicable — no promoter group.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	4/8	Bearish	Passed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, operating margin improved, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: CFO > net profit, leverage fell, ROA improved, asset turnover improved.
49	Automated screen flags	4 strength(s) · 1 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Company is almost debt free; Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 5.67%; Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 35.2%; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 74.5%. Weaknesses: The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 9.87% over past five years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
50	Fundamental summary	13 bullish · 4 bearish · 27 neutral · 5 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 30 Jun 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 17.1×, P/B 4.96×. This describes the data, not a recommendation.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 1 Apr – 30 Jun 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

01 Apr 2026 Navin Agarwal joins ITC board as SUUTI nominee; Dr. Alok Pande steps down — Appointment of Navin Agarwal (Non-Executive Director representing SUUTI, 3-year term) and resignation of Dr. Alok Pande took effect on 1 April 2026; the change was approved by the board on 29 January 2026. source
21 May 2026 ITC Q4 FY26: consolidated PAT Rs 5,470 crore, Rs 8 final dividend recommended — Consolidated PAT rose 6.1% YoY to Rs 5,470 crore (vs Rs 5,155 crore) and gross revenue rose 17.1% to Rs 23,626 crore; FY26 PAT was Rs 21,018 crore and total FY26 dividend Rs 14.50/share including the Rs 6.50 interim. source
21 May 2026 ITC fixes 27 May 2026 as record date for Rs 8 final dividend — ITC announced 27 May 2026 as the record date for its Rs 8 per share final dividend for FY26; Yahoo shows the stock going ex-dividend Rs 8 on 27 May 2026. source
22 May 2026 ITC shares slip after Q4; net cigarette sales fall 22% as excise bites — Shares fell 1.74% to Rs 302.65 on 22 May; Motilal Oswal noted gross cigarette sales up 30% YoY to Rs 11,950 crore but net cigarette sales down 22% to Rs 5,950 crore after the excise increase. Brokerages were mostly Neutral/Hold (MOSL target Rs 335, Nuvama cut to Rs 350). source
05 Jun 2026 Motilal Oswal: ITC needs ~35% cigarette price hike for EBIT neutrality — With shares down 23% in 2026 at about Rs 280, Motilal Oswal estimated a 35% price hike would be needed to offset the tax increase, expected a 10% cigarette volume decline in FY27 and kept a Neutral rating with a Rs 300 target. source

What happened next (30 Jun 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹286.95 to ₹255.90 by 01 Oct 2026 (-10.8%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.0% — underperforming by 4.8 points.
Highest ₹292.55 on 03 Aug 2026; lowest ₹254.65 on 01 Oct 2026.
S1 275.05: broken on a closing basis on 17 Aug 2026.
R1 294.55: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 311.72: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 31 Jul 2026): revenue ₹19,114 crore (-11.1% YoY), net profit ₹4,509 crore (-15.6% YoY), operating margin 27% vs 32% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Shareholding Mar → Jun 2026: FIIs 34.83% → 34.23%, DIIs 49.15% → 49.13%.

Later news

23 Jul 2026 ITC holds AGM; FY26 final dividend payout window 24-29 July — ITC's AGM was held on 23 July 2026; the Rs 8 final dividend (record date 27 May 2026) was payable 24-29 July 2026 once approved by shareholders. source
31 Jul 2026 ITC Q1 FY27 consolidated profit falls 15.6% to Rs 4,508.79 crore; revenue up 27.6% — Consolidated PAT fell 15.6% YoY to Rs 4,508.79 crore while revenue from operations rose 27.64% to Rs 29,523.3 crore; the cigarette segment was hit by a steep excise duty hike, while FMCG-Others revenue rose 15% to Rs 6,687 crore with PBIT up 21% to Rs 485 crore. source
03 Aug 2026 ITC jumps up to 4% as cigarette volumes beat expectations — Shares rose as much as 4.11% to Rs 292.55 (highest since 23 June) after brokerages said cigarette volumes were stronger than feared despite standalone net profit falling 27% to Rs 3,579 crore. source
23 Sep 2026 ITC shares down ~27% in 2026; brokerage targets range Rs 290-440 — At Rs 269.20, ITC was down 27.17% YTD and 46% over two years, with FII holding falling from 40.5% (June 2024) to 34.2% (June 2026); targets ranged from Systematix Rs 290 to 360 One Rs 440. source

Educational summary. On 30 Jun 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -10.8% against -6.0% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold ITC today.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 03 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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