Packaged foods (FMCG)Historical case study · data as of 03 Jul 2026 · published 06 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Nestlé India — 100-point case study
How Nestlé India looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 03 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Nestlé India issued 1:1 bonus shares (ex-date 8 Aug 2025); prices are bonus-adjusted. The company moved from a January–December to an April–March financial year, so the year labelled Mar 2024 covers 15 months and multi-year growth comparisons are less reliable.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 03 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.12%/day
Bullish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.12% a day — a short-term uptrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +24.3%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.16%/day) and the stock was +24.3% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +22.2%
Bullish
Compared with a year earlier the price was +22.2%. A strong positive year.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 1,425.52 / 30W 1,323.06
Bullish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 1,454.90→1,430.70; lows 1,370.60→1,380.60
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
17.5
Neutral
ADX at 17.5 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 23.6 / –DI 11.9
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
1,407.62 (+3.7%)
Bullish
Close of 1,459.80 was 3.7% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
1,424.39 (+2.5%)
Bullish
Close of 1,459.80 was 2.5% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
1,295.87 (+12.7%)
Bullish
Close of 1,459.80 was 12.7% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 1,425.09 / 21E 1,414.00
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 01 Jul 2026.
The 50-day average was 9.9% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+5.4% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 5.4% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
1,408 / 1,424 / 1,339 / 1,296
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
1,447.70 (+0.8%)
Bullish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 1,447.70; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
61.9
Bullish
RSI at 61.9 showed positive momentum without being overbought.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 8.70 / signal 2.23
Bullish
MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-1.84 → 6.48
Bullish
The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 1.02 (bands 1,357.68–1,457.57)
Caution
%B of 1.02 — close above the upper band, an overextended move.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 7.1% (45th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 45th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹31.09 (2.1% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹31.09, or 2.1% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
20.9% vs 1Y 20.7%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 20.9%, close to the one-year level of 20.7%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
1,352.50–1,476.46
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
0.61
Neutral
A beta of 0.61 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.99× / 5-day 1.33×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.99× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.33× — heavier than usual participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.07
Neutral
Average volume on up days was 1.07× that on down days — balanced.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
Measuring the 6-month rise from 1,159.40 to 1,498.10, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 1,418.17.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 1,498.10 / L 1,084.70
Bullish
The close was 2.6% below the 52-week high and 34.6% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
none
Neutral
No unfilled price gaps in the last six months.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
rising channel
Bullish
Rule-based pattern scan: rising channel — successive higher highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 1,370.60–1,462.30
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 1,370.60–1,462.30.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary green candle
Neutral
On 03 Jul the candle opened 1,448.00, ranged 1,442.80–1,463.70 and closed 1,459.80: Ordinary green candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M +1.2% / 3M +15.6%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 15.6 points over three months and outperformed by 1.2 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M +23.0%
Bullish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 23.0 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
25 bullish · 2 bearish · 19 neutral · 3 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 1,379.45, resistance 1,498.10. This is a description of the chart on 03 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 03 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 03 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
80.7×
Neutral
At ₹1,459.80 the market valued the company at about ₹2,82,359 crore, or 80.7× the ₹3,499 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
54.75×
Neutral
Market cap was 54.75× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹5,157 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
12.19×
Neutral
The company was valued at 12.19× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹23,155 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
53.7×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹444 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 53.7× trailing operating profit of ₹5,263 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
1.2%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹1.2 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
n/m
Neutral
PEG is not meaningful because 3-year profit growth was not available. Note: the Sep 2024 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹190 crore; the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹170 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
0.82%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹12 a share, a 0.82% yield on the ₹1,459.80 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹2,82,359 cr
Neutral
At about ₹2.82 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹104.17 vs ₹1,459.80
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹104.17; the price was 1301% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+14.6%
Bullish
Revenue for FY26 was ₹23,155 crore, +14.6% versus FY25.
FY26 net profit was ₹3,499 crore, +9.1% on FY25's ₹3,208 crore. Note: the Sep 2024 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹190 crore; the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹170 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%. Caution if a one-off item distorted the figure.
13
Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)
+27.3%
Caution
Quarterly profit was ₹1,111 crore versus ₹873 crore a year earlier (+27.3%). Note: the Sep 2024 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹190 crore; the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹170 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15
Profit CAGR (3 years)
n/a
Neutral
Not available. Note: the Sep 2024 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹190 crore; the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹170 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
n/a
Neutral
Not available.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17
EPS growth FY26 (reported)
+9.1%
Neutral
Reported EPS went from ₹16.63 to ₹18.15 (+9.1%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Note: the Sep 2024 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹190 crore; the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹170 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
4 strength(s) · 1 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company has reduced debt; Company is almost debt free; Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 89.6%; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 75.4%. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 48.5 times its book value. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
16 bullish · 0 bearish · 32 neutral · 1 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 03 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 80.7×, P/B 54.75×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 03 Apr 2026 – 03 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
21 Apr 2026Nestle India Q4 FY26 profit rises about 27%; Rs 5 final dividend recommended — For the March 2026 quarter, consolidated revenue from operations was about Rs 6,748 crore (up ~23% YoY) and net profit Rs 1,110.9 crore versus Rs 873.5 crore a year earlier. FY26 net profit was about Rs 3,499 crore. The board recommended a final dividend of Rs 5, taking FY26 dividend to Rs 12. Shares closed about 7% higher on the day. source
22 Apr 2026Nestle India sets July 10 record date for FY26 final dividend — The company fixed 10 July 2026 as the record date for the Rs 5 final dividend, payable from 30 July 2026 subject to approval at the AGM on 3 July 2026. Together with the Rs 7 interim paid in February, FY26 dividend totals Rs 12 versus Rs 13.5 in FY25. source
08 Jun 2026Annual report shows royalty to Swiss parent above Rs 1,000 crore in FY26 — According to the FY26 annual report, Nestle India paid Rs 1,024.5 crore in royalty to Societe des Produits Nestle S.A., about 4.5% of net sales and 13.9% more than the Rs 899 crore paid in FY25. source
03 Jul 2026Board declares Rs 2 special dividend on AGM day — On 3 July 2026, the day of its 67th AGM, the board declared a special dividend of Rs 2 per share from retained earnings, with the same 10 July record date as the Rs 5 final dividend and payment from 30 July. source
What happened next (03 Jul 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹1,459.80 to ₹1,307.70 by 01 Oct 2026 (-10.4%) while the Nifty 50 moved -7.6% — underperforming by 2.8 points.
Highest ₹1,553.00 on 07 Aug 2026; lowest ₹1,295.00 on 01 Oct 2026.
S1 1,379.45: broken on a closing basis on 15 Sep 2026.
S2 1,264.28: held on a closing basis.
R1 1,498.10: cleared on a closing basis on 29 Jul 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 24 Sep 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 22 Jul 2026): revenue ₹6,378 crore (+25.2% YoY), net profit ₹959 crore (+48.2% YoY), operating margin 24% vs 21% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
22 Jul 2026Nestle India Q1 FY27 profit up about 48%; revenue up 25% — For the June 2026 quarter, consolidated revenue from operations was Rs 6,378 crore (up 25.2% YoY) and consolidated net profit Rs 958.7 crore versus Rs 646.6 crore. All four product groups grew in double digits. Shares touched a record high near Rs 1,510 after the results. source
04 Aug 2026Investor presentation outlines FY26 volume growth and distribution expansion — At an analyst and investor meet on 4 August 2026, the company reported 14.9% standalone revenue growth in FY26 with 10.7% volume growth, reach of about 6.2 million outlets by June 2026, and marketing spend of about Rs 1,220 crore in FY26. source
24 Aug 2026Nestle India discloses one-on-one institutional investor meeting — Under SEBI disclosure rules, the company informed exchanges of a one-on-one meeting with an institutional investor in Mumbai on 31 August 2026. source
02 Sep 2026Shares decline for a second straight session — The stock fell for a second consecutive session in early September; the report found no company-specific trigger and noted the premium valuation (P/E around 73). source
Educational summary. On 03 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -10.4% against -7.6% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Nestlé India today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 06 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction