Power generation (PSU)Historical case study · data as of 03 Jul 2026 · published 06 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
NTPC — 100-point case study
How NTPC looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 03 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Codes
NSE: NTPC · BSE: 532555
Close on 03 Jul 2026
₹356.45
Market cap then
₹3,45,961 crore
Valuation
P/E 12.6× · P/B 1.70×
Momentum
RSI (14) 41 · 1-year return +6.5%
Next 3 months
-11.6% vs Nifty 50 -7.6% (to 01 Oct 2026)
Scorecard
Technical — 50 points
9 bullish · 28 neutral · 1 caution · 11 bearish — the picture was mixed.
Fundamental — 50 points
13 bullish · 27 neutral · 0 caution · 9 bearish — the picture was mixed.
Price chart
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter shows a large negative tax rate (net profit far above profit before tax), as reported by Screener — likely a tax/deferred-tax adjustment. Treat profit-based ratios for that quarter with care.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 03 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.02%/day
Neutral
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.02% a day — a flat, sideways phase.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return -3.8%
Neutral
The 100-session trend line was down (-0.02%/day) and the stock was -3.8% over three months, so the medium-term picture was neutral.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +6.5%
Neutral
Compared with a year earlier the price was +6.5%. Little net progress over twelve months.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 376.19 / 30W 366.60
Neutral
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 403.10→369.25; lows 346.95→351.45
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
25.9
Bearish
ADX at 25.9 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 13.5 / –DI 22.3
Bearish
–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
357.51 (-0.3%)
Bearish
Close of 356.45 was 0.3% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
378.65 (-5.9%)
Bearish
Close of 356.45 was 5.9% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
356.00 (+0.1%)
Bullish
Close of 356.45 was 0.1% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 357.81 / 21E 361.74
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 19 May 2026.
The 50-day average was 6.4% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
-2.2% in 20 sessions
Bearish
The 50-day average fell 2.2% over the past month — declining.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
358 / 379 / 377 / 356
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
357.29 (-0.2%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 357.29; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
41.1
Bearish
RSI at 41.1 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -5.26 / signal -6.28
Bullish
MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
0.78 → 1.02
Bullish
The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.45 (bands 347.41–367.61)
Neutral
%B of 0.45 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 5.6% (13th pct of 6M)
Caution
Band width was at the 13th percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown).
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹7.55 (2.1% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹7.55, or 2.1% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
21.2% vs 1Y 18.7%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 21.2%, close to the one-year level of 18.7%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
346.89–375.77
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
0.53
Neutral
A beta of 0.53 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.46× / 5-day 1.12×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.46× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.12× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.14
Neutral
Average volume on up days was 1.14× that on down days — balanced.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price fell — volume diverged from price.
About ₹510 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — highly liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
350.13 / 328.14 / 315.55
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 350.13, 1.8% below the close, then 328.14, 315.55.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
370.65 / 385.33 / 395.02
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 370.65, 4.0% above the close, then 385.33, 395.02.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 356.53 | R1 360.77 | S1 352.22
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 356.53; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 393 | 38.2% 379 | 50.0% 368 | 61.8% 357
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month rise from 322.30 to 414.40, the close was nearest the 61.8% retracement at 357.48.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 414.40 / L 315.55
Neutral
The close was 14.0% below the 52-week high and 13.0% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
none
Neutral
No unfilled price gaps in the last six months.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
broad sideways range
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: broad sideways range. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 346.95–369.25
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 346.95–369.25.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary red candle
Neutral
On 03 Jul the candle opened 358.25, ranged 355.45–360.15 and closed 356.45: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 383.20–395.24; Tenkan 360.35 / Kijun 375.02
Bearish
Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -6.5% / 3M -12.5%
Bearish
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 12.5 points over three months and underperformed by 6.5 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M +17.7%
Bullish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 17.7 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
9 bullish · 11 bearish · 28 neutral · 1 caution
Neutral
Across the 49 readings the technical picture was mixed. Levels that mattered: support 350.13, resistance 370.65. This is a description of the chart on 03 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 03 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 03 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
12.6×
Neutral
At ₹356.45 the market valued the company at about ₹3,45,961 crore, or 12.6× the ₹27,545 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
1.70×
Neutral
Market cap was 1.70× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹2,03,176 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
1.85×
Neutral
The company was valued at 1.85× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹1,87,382 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
12.7×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹2,71,005 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 12.7× trailing operating profit of ₹48,470 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
8.0%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹8.0 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
0.73
Bullish
P/E of 12.6 divided by 3-year profit growth of 17.2% a year gives a PEG of 0.73. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
2.48%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹8.85 a share, a 2.48% yield on the ₹356.45 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹3,45,961 cr
Neutral
At about ₹3.46 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹365.61 vs ₹356.45
Bullish
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹365.61; the price was 3% below it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
-0.4%
Bearish
Revenue for FY26 was ₹1,87,385 crore, -0.4% versus FY25.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
1 strength(s) · 3 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 34.3%. Weaknesses: The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 10.9% over past five years; Tax rate seems low; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
13 bullish · 9 bearish · 27 neutral · 0 caution
Neutral
On the numbers published by 03 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture was mixed. Valuation: P/E 12.6×, P/B 1.70×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 03 Apr 2026 – 03 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
08 Apr 2026NTPC and EDF sign non-binding agreement on nuclear cooperation — NTPC and France's EDF entered a non-binding partnership to jointly assess EDF's EPR technology for India, local manufacturing, economics, site identification and workforce training. source
25 May 2026NTPC Q4 FY26 consolidated profit rises 34% to Rs 10,615 crore; final dividend Rs 3.5 recommended — Q4 FY26 consolidated PAT of Rs 10,615 crore; standalone PAT Rs 8,747 crore. Board recommended a final dividend of Rs 3.5/share. Group added a record 9,178 MW net capacity in FY26, reaching 89,108 MW installed. source
28 May 2026NTPC outlines 60 GW renewable target after record FY26 capacity addition — Post-results commentary: FY26 consolidated profit Rs 27,546 crore; plan to invest about Rs 3 lakh crore in renewables through 2032 targeting 60 GW, plus pumped storage and nuclear progress at Mahi Banswara. source
30 Jun 2026Patratu STPP Unit 2 (800 MW) declared commercial — Unit 2 of PVUNL's Patratu Phase-I, an NTPC subsidiary, achieved commercial operation on 25 June 2026, taking group installed capacity to 90,857 MW. source
30 Jun 2026NTPC commissions final 41.6 MW of 176 MW Ramagundam solar project — The last phase of the Telangana solar project was commissioned, completing the 176 MW plant; group installed capacity rose to 90,899 MW. source
03 Jul 2026NTPC REL signs 1,200 MW solar PPA with PTC India — NTPC Renewable Energy (subsidiary of NTPC Green Energy) signed a power purchase agreement to supply 1,200 MW of solar power to PTC India; disclosed to exchanges on 3 July 2026. source
What happened next (03 Jul 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹356.45 to ₹315.10 by 01 Oct 2026 (-11.6%) while the Nifty 50 moved -7.6% — underperforming by 4.0 points.
Highest ₹359.40 on 06 Jul 2026; lowest ₹313.05 on 01 Oct 2026.
S1 350.13: broken on a closing basis on 08 Jul 2026.
S2 328.14: broken on a closing basis on 31 Aug 2026.
R1 370.65: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 385.33: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 07 Jul 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 24 Jul 2026): revenue ₹50,741 crore (+7.8% YoY), net profit ₹6,896 crore (+12.9% YoY), operating margin 32% vs 27% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
06 Jul 2026NTPC declares commercial operation of Ramagundam solar and Bhilai floating solar — Commercial operation declared for the final 41.6 MW at Ramagundam and completion of the 15 MW Bhilai floating solar plant (NTPC-SAIL JV); group installed capacity 90,904 MW. source
24 Jul 2026NTPC Q1 FY27 consolidated profit up 13% to Rs 6,896 crore — Consolidated revenue from operations Rs 50,741 crore (+8% YoY) and PAT Rs 6,896 crore (+13%); standalone PAT Rs 5,342 crore (+12%). Coal plant PLF 76.71% vs national 70.32%. source
30 Jul 2026NTPC lays out Rs 17 trillion investment plan to reach 250 GW by FY2037 — Company targets 150 GW by FY2032 and 250 GW by FY2037, with renewables scaling to 136 GW, coal to about 91 GW and nuclear to 6 GW by 2037. source
19 Sep 2026NTPC Green Energy units declare commercial operation of Gujarat solar and wind capacity — 68.22 MW of the 200 MW Dahod solar project and 9.45 MW Vanki wind project in Kutch declared commercial; NTPC group installed capacity 91,164 MW. source
Educational summary. On 03 Jul 2026 the technical picture was mixed and the fundamental picture was mixed. Over the next three months the stock moved -11.6% against -7.6% for the Nifty 50. A mixed chart gave no clear message, and the outcome shows why mixed readings are hard to act on. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold NTPC today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 06 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction