Power transmission (PSU)Historical case study · data as of 03 Jul 2026 · published 06 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Power Grid — 100-point case study
How Power Grid looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 03 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Codes
NSE: POWERGRID · BSE: 532898
Close on 03 Jul 2026
₹287.85
Market cap then
₹2,67,613 crore
Valuation
P/E 16.8× · P/B 2.66×
Momentum
RSI (14) 46 · 1-year return -2.0%
Next 3 months
-10.7% vs Nifty 50 -7.1% (to 05 Oct 2026)
Scorecard
Technical — 50 points
10 bullish · 29 neutral · 1 caution · 9 bearish — the picture was mixed.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter's net profit is lifted by a deferred tax credit of about ₹5,180 crore (per Outlook Business); profit before tax was small. Profit-based ratios for that quarter are distorted.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 03 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.02%/day
Neutral
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.02% a day — a flat, sideways phase.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return -2.8%
Neutral
The 100-session trend line was down (-0.03%/day) and the stock was -2.8% over three months, so the medium-term picture was neutral.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -2.0%
Neutral
Compared with a year earlier the price was -2.0%. Little net progress over twelve months.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 295.75 / 30W 288.16
Neutral
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 293.05→295.25; lows 278.40→283.05
Bullish
The two most recent swing points showed higher swing highs and higher swing lows — classic uptrend structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
13.3
Neutral
ADX at 13.3 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 18.0 / –DI 17.6
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
287.56 (+0.1%)
Bullish
Close of 287.85 was 0.1% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
297.98 (-3.4%)
Bearish
Close of 287.85 was 3.4% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
286.37 (+0.5%)
Bullish
Close of 287.85 was 0.5% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 287.74 / 21E 289.01
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 13 May 2026.
The 50-day average was 4.1% above the 200-day. The most recent signal was a golden cross on 20 Mar 2026.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
-1.9% in 20 sessions
Bearish
The 50-day average fell 1.9% over the past month — declining.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
288 / 298 / 299 / 286
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
287.95 (-0.0%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 287.95; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
46.1
Neutral
RSI at 46.1 was in the neutral 45–55 zone.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -2.02 / signal -2.67
Bullish
MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
0.71 → 0.65
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.53 (bands 282.75–292.36)
Neutral
%B of 0.53 — inside the bands, upper half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 3.3% (0th pct of 6M)
Caution
Band width was at the 0th percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown).
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹5.60 (1.9% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹5.60, or 1.9% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
19.3% vs 1Y 19.7%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 19.3%, close to the one-year level of 19.7%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
278.24–299.44
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
0.46
Neutral
A beta of 0.46 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 1.05× / 5-day 1.10×
Neutral
The final session traded 1.05× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.10× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 0.92
Neutral
Average volume on up days was 0.92× that on down days — balanced.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹282 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
285.31 / 272.38 / 264.57
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 285.31, 0.9% below the close, then 272.38, 264.57.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
293.24 / 305.46 / 323.97
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 293.24, 1.9% above the close, then 305.46, 323.97.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 288.02 | R1 291.83 | S1 284.03
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 288.02; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 307 | 38.2% 296 | 50.0% 287 | 61.8% 279
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month rise from 250.00 to 324.95, the close was nearest the 50.0% retracement at 287.48.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 324.95 / L 250.00
Neutral
The close was 11.4% below the 52-week high and 15.1% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
1 open; latest gap-up 03 Feb at 271.20
Neutral
There was 1 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 03 Feb 2026, left an open level at 271.20 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
tight consolidation
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: tight consolidation (20-day range only 4.4%). (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 280.00–295.25
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 280.00–295.25.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary red candle
Neutral
On 03 Jul the candle opened 288.50, ranged 287.10–292.00 and closed 287.85: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 303.38–304.23; Tenkan 289.15 / Kijun 290.70
Bearish
Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -2.7% / 3M -11.5%
Bearish
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 11.5 points over three months and underperformed by 2.7 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M +14.5%
Bullish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 14.5 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
10 bullish · 9 bearish · 29 neutral · 1 caution
Neutral
Across the 49 readings the technical picture was mixed. Levels that mattered: support 285.31, resistance 293.24. This is a description of the chart on 03 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 03 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 03 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
16.8×
Neutral
At ₹287.85 the market valued the company at about ₹2,67,613 crore, or 16.8× the ₹15,928 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
2.66×
Neutral
Market cap was 2.66× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹1,00,494 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
5.73×
Neutral
The company was valued at 5.73× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹46,733 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
12.2×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹1,48,071 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 12.2× trailing operating profit of ₹34,067 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
6.0%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹6.0 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
15.37
Bearish
P/E of 16.8 divided by 3-year profit growth of 1.1% a year gives a PEG of 15.37. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
3.13%
Bullish
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹9 a share, a 3.13% yield on the ₹287.85 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹2,67,613 cr
Neutral
At about ₹2.68 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹204.13 vs ₹287.85
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹204.13; the price was 41% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+2.1%
Neutral
Revenue for FY26 was ₹46,733 crore, +2.1% versus FY25.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
1 strength(s) · 3 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 57.9%. Weaknesses: The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 3.35% over past five years; Tax rate seems low; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
7 bullish · 12 bearish · 29 neutral · 1 caution
Bearish
On the numbers published by 03 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned negative. Valuation: P/E 16.8×, P/B 2.66×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 03 Apr 2026 – 03 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
06 Apr 2026POWERGRID declared successful bidder for Tumkur-II transmission strengthening project in Karnataka — Company won a TBCB tender for 400 kV transmission system strengthening at Tumkur-II (Karnataka) to integrate about 2.7 GW of additional renewable capacity, on a build-own-operate-transfer basis. source
16 May 2026Committee of Directors approves Rs 584 crore of transmission and communication projects — Approved three projects totalling about Rs 584.13 crore: Tuticorin-II substation augmentation and OPGW fibre systems in the Western and Eastern regions, with completion targeted in 2028. source
17 May 2026Q4 FY26 consolidated net profit rises about 10% to Rs 4,546 crore on deferred tax credit — Q4 FY26 consolidated net profit was Rs 4,546.33 crore vs Rs 4,142.87 crore a year earlier, helped by a deferred tax credit of about Rs 5,180 crore; quarterly total income fell to Rs 11,970.69 crore. FY26 net profit was Rs 15,927.95 crore. Final dividend of Rs 1.25/share recommended, on top of Rs 7.75 interim. source
26 Jun 2026Board approves higher borrowing limit and USD 500 million ECB — Board approved raising the borrowing ceiling from Rs 1.80 lakh crore to Rs 2.20 lakh crore (subject to shareholder approval), a USD 500 million external commercial borrowing via Bank of Baroda, and Rs 772.65 crore for upgrading the Udumalpet-Madurai line in Tamil Nadu. source
02 Jul 2026JBIC announces up to JPY 80 billion green loan for Khavda-Nagpur HVDC project — Japan Bank for International Cooperation said it signed (on 17 June 2026) a co-financed loan of up to JPY 80 billion (JBIC portion JPY 48 billion) to POWERGRID for the HVDC line carrying power from Khavda RE park in Gujarat to Nagpur. source
What happened next (03 Jul 2026 → 05 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹287.85 to ₹257.00 by 05 Oct 2026 (-10.7%) while the Nifty 50 moved -7.1% — underperforming by 3.7 points.
Highest ₹294.10 on 04 Aug 2026; lowest ₹252.35 on 01 Oct 2026.
S1 285.31: broken on a closing basis on 07 Jul 2026.
S2 272.38: broken on a closing basis on 06 Aug 2026.
R1 293.24: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 305.46: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 06 Jul 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 05 Aug 2026): revenue ₹11,497 crore (+2.7% YoY), net profit ₹3,598 crore (-0.9% YoY), operating margin 82% vs 81% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
09 Jul 2026POWERGRID receives LoI for Bhadla-III, Ramgarh and Kanpur augmentation project — Selected as successful bidder under TBCB for augmentation and bay extension works at Bhadla-III, Ramgarh PS and Kanpur substations in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, on BOOT basis. source
06 Aug 2026Q1 FY27 consolidated net profit of Rs 3,598 crore, about 1% lower year on year — Results announced on 5 Aug 2026: total income Rs 11,696.72 crore (+2.2% YoY), consolidated net profit Rs 3,598.42 crore (-0.9% YoY); standalone debt-equity 1.41. Shares fell over 2% the next day. source
06 Aug 2026Board approves amalgamation of 27 wholly-owned transmission subsidiaries — Alongside Q1 results, board approved schemes to merge 27 wholly-owned subsidiaries into Powergrid Ghiror Transmission and Powergrid South Olpad Transmission, and approved divesting certain stakes including its equity in CTUIL to Grid Controller of India. source
02 Sep 2026POWERGRID emerges L1 for Barmer HVDC transmission system — Emerged lowest bidder for the Barmer HVDC transmission scheme under TBCB with a quote of about Rs 3,244 crore after cutting its initial quote by about 14% in the e-reverse auction. source
28 Sep 2026POWERGRID wins Rs 430.67 crore Lakadia/Jam Khambhaliya/Jamnagar evacuation system Part-C — Received LoI on 25 Sep 2026 for a common transmission system including a new 765/400/220 kV Alephata substation in Maharashtra; reported as its ninth TBCB win of FY27. source
Educational summary. On 03 Jul 2026 the technical picture was mixed and the fundamental picture leaned negative. Over the next three months the stock moved -10.7% against -7.1% for the Nifty 50. A mixed chart gave no clear message, and the outcome shows why mixed readings are hard to act on. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Power Grid today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 06 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction