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Oil, gas, retail & telecom Historical case study · data as of 30 Jun 2026 · published 03 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

Reliance Industries — 100-point case study

How Reliance Industries looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 30 Jun 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: RELIANCE · BSE: 500325
Close on 30 Jun 2026	₹1,293.90
Market cap then	₹17,50,525 crore
Valuation	P/E 18.3× · P/B 1.94×
Momentum	RSI (14) 43 · 1-year return -13.8%
Next 3 months	-9.8% vs Nifty 50 -6.0% (to 01 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

3 bullish · 21 neutral · 0 caution · 25 bearish — the picture leaned negative.

Fundamental — 50 points

10 bullish · 33 neutral · 5 caution · 1 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 30 Jun 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope +0.10%/day	Bullish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.10% a day — a short-term uptrend.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return -8.4%	Bearish	The 100-session trend line was down (-0.10%/day) and the stock was -8.4% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return -13.8%	Bearish	Compared with a year earlier the price was -13.8%. A weak year for the stock.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 1,338.36 / 30W 1,399.89	Bearish	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 1,371.10→1,344.90; lows 1,312.60→1,253.20	Bearish	The two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	16.3	Neutral	ADX at 16.3 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 17.1 / –DI 25.1	Bearish	–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	1,301.92 (-0.6%)	Bearish	Close of 1,293.90 was 0.6% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	1,344.94 (-3.8%)	Bearish	Close of 1,293.90 was 3.8% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	1,419.69 (-8.9%)	Bearish	Close of 1,293.90 was 8.9% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 1,307.81 / 21E 1,313.57	Bearish	The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 15 May 2026.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bearish	The 50-day average was 5.3% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
13	50-day SMA slope	-1.8% in 20 sessions	Bearish	The 50-day average fell 1.8% over the past month — declining.
14	MA ribbon alignment	1,302 / 1,345 / 1,370 / 1,420	Bearish	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bearish (20 < 50 < 100 < 200).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	1,302.92 (-0.7%)	Bearish	Anchored to the start of June, the volume-weighted average price was 1,302.92; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	42.6	Bearish	RSI at 42.6 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	none	Neutral	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD -8.66 / signal -10.90	Bullish	MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	5.54 → 2.24	Bearish	The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
20	MACD vs zero line	-8.66	Bearish	MACD below zero means the 12-day EMA was below the 26-day EMA — a negative momentum regime.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 55.8 / %D 61.6	Bearish	Slow stochastic at 55.8 was mid-range with %K below %D.
22	Williams %R (14)	-55.6	Neutral	%R of -55.6 put the close in the middle of its 14-day range.
23	CCI (20)	-23	Neutral	CCI at -23 was within the normal ±100 band.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	-1.0%	Neutral	Price changed -1.0% over ten sessions.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.41 (bands 1,256.07–1,347.78)	Neutral	%B of 0.41 — inside the bands, lower half.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 7.0% (21st pct of 6M)	Neutral	Band width was at the 21st percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
27	ATR (14)	₹25.64 (2.0% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹25.64, or 2.0% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	18.6% vs 1Y 20.4%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 18.6%, close to the one-year level of 20.4%.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	1,263.23–1,362.51	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	0.90	Neutral	A beta of 0.90 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 0.92× / 5-day 0.81×	Neutral	The final session traded 0.92× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.81× — normal participation.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 0.78	Bearish	Average volume on up days was 0.78× that on down days — distribution-leaning.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV falling	Bearish	OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	falling (20d)	Bearish	The A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	-0.15	Bearish	CMF at -0.15 indicated net outflows.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	56.5	Bullish	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 56.5.
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹2,210 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹2,210 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — highly liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	1,253.20	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 1,253.20, 3.2% below the close.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	1,344.90 / 1,372.05 / 1,424.78	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 1,344.90, 3.9% above the close, then 1,372.05, 1,424.78.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 1,297.33 \| R1 1,341.47 \| S1 1,249.77	Neutral	Classic pivots from June's high/low/close gave a pivot of 1,297.33; the close was below it.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 1,338 \| 38.2% 1,390 \| 50.0% 1,432 \| 61.8% 1,475	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month fall from 1,611.80 to 1,253.20, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 1,337.83.
42	52-week high / low	H 1,611.80 / L 1,253.20	Bearish	The close was 19.7% below the 52-week high and 3.2% above the 52-week low.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	2 open; latest gap-down 29 Jun at 1,314.60	Neutral	There were 2 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 29 Jun 2026, left an open level at 1,314.60 that price had not revisited.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend	Neutral	Rule-based pattern scan: counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 1,253.20–1,344.90	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 1,253.20–1,344.90.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary red candle	Neutral	On 30 Jun the candle opened 1,306.90, ranged 1,290.00–1,306.90 and closed 1,293.90: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 1,381.25–1,381.70; Tenkan 1,317.45 / Kijun 1,312.15	Bearish	Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M -3.4% / 3M -12.5%	Bearish	The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 12.5 points over three months and underperformed by 3.4 points over one month.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M -9.2%	Bearish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 9.2 points behind the Nifty 50.
50	Technical summary	3 bullish · 25 bearish · 21 neutral · 0 caution	Bearish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 1,253.20, resistance 1,344.90. This is a description of the chart on 30 Jun 2026, not a forecast.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 30 Jun 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 30 Jun 2026 close.

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	18.3×	Neutral	At ₹1,293.90 the market valued the company at about ₹17,50,525 crore, or 18.3× the ₹95,754 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
2	Price / Book	1.94×	Neutral	Market cap was 1.94× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹9,04,030 crore.
3	Price / Sales	1.66×	Neutral	The company was valued at 1.66× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹10,57,219 crore.
4	EV / EBITDA (approx.)	12.0×	Neutral	Enterprise value (market cap + ₹4,02,962 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 12.0× trailing operating profit of ₹1,78,949 crore.
5	Earnings yield	5.5%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹5.5 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	2.05	Caution	P/E of 18.3 divided by 3-year profit growth of 8.9% a year gives a PEG of 2.05. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Note: the Jun 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹15,119 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	0.89%	Neutral	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹11.5 a share, a 0.89% yield on the ₹1,293.90 price.
8	Market capitalisation	₹17,50,525 cr	Neutral	At about ₹17.51 lakh crore the company was a large-cap, among the largest listed companies in India.
9	Graham number vs price	₹1,031.56 vs ₹1,293.90	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹1,031.56; the price was 25% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+9.7%	Neutral	Revenue for FY26 was ₹10,55,780 crore, +9.7% versus FY25.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+12.5%	Bullish	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹2,94,059 crore of revenue, +12.5% on the same quarter a year earlier.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+17.8%	Caution	FY26 net profit was ₹95,754 crore, +17.8% on FY25's ₹81,309 crore. Note: the Jun 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹15,119 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	-8.9%	Caution	Quarterly profit was ₹20,589 crore versus ₹22,611 crore a year earlier (-8.9%). Note: the Jun 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹15,119 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	6.4%	Neutral	Revenue compounded at 6.4% a year from FY23 to FY26.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	8.9%	Neutral	Net profit compounded at 8.9% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: the Jun 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹15,119 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	17.8%	Bullish	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 17.8% a year.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+16.0%	Caution	Reported EPS went from ₹51.47 to ₹59.69 (+16.0%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Note: the Jun 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹15,119 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Operating margin FY26	17%	Neutral	Operating profit (EBITDA) was 17% of sales in FY26 versus 17% in FY25.
19	Operating margin trend (4 quarters)	18% → 18% → 17% → 15%	Bearish	Quarterly margins moved from 18% to 15% over the last four quarters — contracting.
20	Net profit margin FY26	9.1%	Neutral	₹9.1 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26.
21	Return on equity FY26	11.0%	Neutral	FY26 profit was 11.0% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak.
22	ROCE FY26	10%	Neutral	Return on capital employed (debt + equity) was 10% in FY26.
23	Return on assets FY26	4.40%	Neutral	Net profit was 4.40% of total assets.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	22%	Neutral	The company paid about 22% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%.
25	Other income share of pre-tax profit	23%	Neutral	Non-operating 'other income' of ₹28,846 crore made up 23% of pre-tax profit.

D. Balance sheet

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Debt / equity	0.45	Neutral	Borrowings of ₹4,02,962 crore were 0.45× equity — moderate leverage.
27	Debt / EBITDA	2.25×	Neutral	Debt equalled 2.25 years of FY26 operating profit.
28	Interest coverage	5.6×	Neutral	Earnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 5.6 times.
29	Book value growth	+7.2%	Neutral	Shareholders' equity grew +7.2% from ₹8,43,200 crore to ₹9,04,030 crore in FY26.
30	Capital work in progress	₹2,37,686 cr (21% of fixed assets)	Neutral	Projects under construction (CWIP) were 21% of fixed assets — a big expansion pipeline not yet earning.
31	Working capital days	-66 days	Neutral	Working capital tied up equalled -66 days of sales (FY25: -68). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations.
32	Cash conversion cycle	25 days	Neutral	It took 25 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit.
33	Debtor days	20 (FY25 16)	Caution	Customers took 20 days on average to pay, versus 16 a year earlier — a notable stretch in collections.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹1,92,113 cr	Bullish	The business generated ₹1,92,113 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹1,78,703 crore in FY25.
35	Free cash flow FY26	₹70,023 cr	Bullish	After capital spending, free cash flow was ₹70,023 crore.
36	Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)	2.01×	Bullish	Operating cash flow was 2.01× reported profit — profits were well backed by cash.
37	Free-cash-flow yield	4.0%	Bullish	FY26 free cash flow was 4.0% of the snapshot market cap.
38	Free cash flow — 3-year total	₹1,32,314 cr	Bullish	Free cash flow over FY24–FY26 added up to ₹1,32,314 crore.
39	Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)	₹1,22,090 cr	Neutral	Implied capital expenditure was about ₹1,22,090 crore, 11.6% of sales.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	10%	Neutral	The company paid out about 10% of FY26 profit as dividends.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	10% / 11% / 10%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+0.0%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital changed +0.0% (₹13,532 cr → ₹13,532 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	50.00% (-0.10 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 50.00% at Mar 2026 versus 50.10% a year earlier.
44	Foreign institutional holding	18.67% (-0.40 pts YoY)	Neutral	FIIs held 18.67% at Mar 2026, down from 19.07% a year before.
45	Domestic institutional holding	20.46% (+1.10 pts YoY)	Bullish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 20.46%, up from 19.36%.
46	Number of shareholders	44.2 lakh (-7.2% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 47.7 lakh to 44.2 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	7/8	Bullish	Passed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, CFO > net profit, leverage fell, operating margin improved, ROA improved, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: asset turnover improved.
49	Automated screen flags	0 strength(s) · 2 weakness(es)	Neutral	No strengths flagged. Weaknesses: Company has a low return on equity of 8.77% over last 3 years; Dividend payout has been low at 10.2% of profits over last 3 years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
50	Fundamental summary	10 bullish · 1 bearish · 33 neutral · 5 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 30 Jun 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 18.3×, P/B 1.94×. This describes the data, not a recommendation.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 1 Apr – 30 Jun 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

24 Apr 2026 RIL Q4 FY26 results: profit falls YoY, revenue up 12.9%; Rs 6 dividend recommended — Reliance reported Q4 FY26 gross revenue of Rs 3,25,290 crore, up 12.9% YoY, while consolidated net profit fell about 8-9% YoY (Rs 20,589 crore attributable per Chola Securities). The board recommended a dividend of Rs 6 per share. source
28 May 2026 Reliance sets June 19 for 49th AGM; June 5 record date for FY26 dividend — Reliance scheduled its 49th AGM for June 19, 2026 via video conferencing and fixed June 5 as the record date for the Rs 6 per share FY26 dividend. source
08 Jun 2026 Reliance loses about Rs 1.29 lakh crore market cap in 9-day losing streak — The stock fell for nine consecutive sessions to a 52-week low, closing at Rs 1,263.30 on June 8, with market cap dropping from about Rs 18.49 lakh crore to Rs 17.10 lakh crore. Rising crude prices linked to the Middle East conflict were cited. source
19 Jun 2026 Jio IPO officially announced at RIL's 49th AGM — At the 49th AGM, Reliance said the Jio Platforms board approved filing a DRHP for an IPO with a fresh issue of up to 27 crore shares; Reuters put the target at about Rs 36,000 crore (about 2.9% of post-issue equity). source
19 Jun 2026 Jio Platforms files Draft Red Herring Prospectus with SEBI — SEBI's public-issues filings list shows the Jio Platforms Ltd DRHP filed on June 19, 2026. source

What happened next (30 Jun 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹1,293.90 to ₹1,167.70 by 01 Oct 2026 (-9.8%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.0% — underperforming by 3.7 points.
Highest ₹1,345.90 on 20 Jul 2026; lowest ₹1,160.80 on 01 Oct 2026.
S1 1,253.20: broken on a closing basis on 15 Sep 2026.
R1 1,344.90: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 1,372.05: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 17 Jul 2026): revenue ₹3,09,468 crore (+27.0% YoY), net profit ₹23,196 crore (-24.6% YoY), operating margin 15% vs 18% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Shareholding Mar → Jun 2026: Promoters 50.00% → 50.48%, FIIs 18.67% → 17.19%, DIIs 20.46% → 21.10%.

Later news

17 Jul 2026 RIL Q1 FY27: revenue up 25% to Rs 3.12 lakh crore; PAT down 24.6% on high base — Consolidated revenue rose 25.4% YoY to Rs 3,11,850 crore while net profit fell 24.6% YoY to Rs 23,196 crore, as Q1 FY26 included an Rs 8,924 crore one-time gain. Recurring EBITDA rose 10.1% to a record Rs 54,067 crore. source
28 Aug 2026 Jio Platforms receives SEBI observation letter for ~Rs 37,700 crore IPO — Jio Platforms received SEBI's observations on its DRHP on August 28, 2026 for an IPO of up to 27 crore fresh shares (~$3.8 billion), set to be India's largest; proceeds mainly to repay about Rs 27,500 crore of Reliance Jio Infocomm debt. source
21 Sep 2026 RIL selloff wipes nearly Rs 4 lakh crore as shares fall 21% in 2026 — RIL shares were down 21% year-to-date versus about 11% for the Nifty 50. Cited factors include windfall tax on diesel/ATF exports reintroduced in March, oil-price volatility, Middle East conflict and Jio listing concerns. source

Educational summary. On 30 Jun 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -9.8% against -6.0% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Reliance Industries today.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 03 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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