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Public-sector bank Historical case study · data as of 30 Jun 2026 · published 03 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

State Bank of India — 100-point case study

How State Bank of India looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 30 Jun 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: SBIN · BSE: 500112
Close on 30 Jun 2026	₹1,026.90
Market cap then	₹9,48,006 crore
Valuation	P/E 10.9× · P/B 1.59×
Momentum	RSI (14) 54 · 1-year return +25.2%
Next 3 months	-7.1% vs Nifty 50 -6.0% (to 01 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

15 bullish · 28 neutral · 0 caution · 6 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Fundamental — 50 points

13 bullish · 31 neutral · 2 caution · 3 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 30 Jun 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope +0.40%/day	Bullish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.40% a day — a short-term uptrend.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return -0.4%	Bearish	The 100-session trend line was down (-0.17%/day) and the stock was -0.4% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return +25.2%	Bullish	Compared with a year earlier the price was +25.2%. A strong positive year.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 1,006.68 / 30W 1,044.72	Neutral	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 1,108.00→978.80; lows 933.90→937.20	Neutral	The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	14.5	Neutral	ADX at 14.5 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 22.4 / –DI 21.4	Bullish	+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	1,011.91 (+1.5%)	Bullish	Close of 1,026.90 was 1.5% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	1,019.12 (+0.8%)	Bullish	Close of 1,026.90 was 0.8% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	1,001.28 (+2.6%)	Bullish	Close of 1,026.90 was 2.6% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 1,029.92 / 21E 1,017.87	Bullish	The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 12 Jun 2026.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bullish	The 50-day average was 1.8% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
13	50-day SMA slope	-1.3% in 20 sessions	Bearish	The 50-day average fell 1.3% over the past month — declining.
14	MA ribbon alignment	1,012 / 1,019 / 1,063 / 1,001	Neutral	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	1,002.76 (+2.4%)	Bullish	Anchored to the start of June, the volume-weighted average price was 1,002.76; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	54.3	Neutral	RSI at 54.3 was in the neutral 45–55 zone.
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	none	Neutral	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD 10.12 / signal 6.76	Bullish	MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	7.11 → 3.36	Bearish	The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
20	MACD vs zero line	10.12	Bullish	MACD above zero means the 12-day EMA was above the 26-day EMA — a positive momentum regime.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 72.2 / %D 79.4	Bearish	Slow stochastic at 72.2 was mid-range with %K below %D.
22	Williams %R (14)	-45.7	Neutral	%R of -45.7 put the close in the middle of its 14-day range.
23	CCI (20)	59	Neutral	CCI at 59 was within the normal ±100 band.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	+0.6%	Neutral	Price changed +0.6% over ten sessions.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.64 (bands 958.72–1,065.10)	Neutral	%B of 0.64 — inside the bands, upper half.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 10.5% (40th pct of 6M)	Neutral	Band width was at the 40th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
27	ATR (14)	₹19.98 (1.9% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹19.98, or 1.9% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	17.0% vs 1Y 22.4%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 17.0%, below the one-year level of 22.4%.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	980.09–1,056.82	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	1.05	Neutral	A beta of 1.05 means the stock tended to move roughly in line with the Nifty 50 day to day.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 0.78× / 5-day 0.93×	Neutral	The final session traded 0.78× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.93× — normal participation.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 1.13	Neutral	Average volume on up days was 1.13× that on down days — balanced.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV rising	Bullish	OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	rising (20d)	Bullish	The A/D line rose, meaning closes tended to be in the upper part of daily ranges on meaningful volume.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	0.11	Bullish	CMF at +0.11 indicated net inflows.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	57.5	Bullish	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 57.5.
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹1,436 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹1,436 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — highly liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	977.47 / 938.52 / 857.25	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 977.47, 5.1% below the close, then 938.52, 857.25.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	1,045.70 / 1,084.20 / 1,114.47	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 1,045.70, 1.8% above the close, then 1,084.20, 1,114.47.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 1,006.50 \| R1 1,075.80 \| S1 957.60	Neutral	Classic pivots from June's high/low/close gave a pivot of 1,006.50; the close was above it.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 1,005 \| 38.2% 1,049 \| 50.0% 1,084 \| 61.8% 1,120	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month fall from 1,234.70 to 933.90, the close was nearest the 38.2% retracement at 1,048.81.
42	52-week high / low	H 1,234.70 / L 786.55	Neutral	The close was 16.8% below the 52-week high and 30.6% above the 52-week low.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	2 open; latest gap-down 09 Mar at 1,138.00	Neutral	There were 2 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 09 Mar 2026, left an open level at 1,138.00 that price had not revisited.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend	Neutral	Rule-based pattern scan: counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 937.20–1,055.40	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 937.20–1,055.40.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary red candle	Neutral	On 30 Jun the candle opened 1,040.00, ranged 1,025.05–1,044.00 and closed 1,026.90: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 998.94–1,058.55; Tenkan 1,034.43 / Kijun 996.30	Neutral	Price was inside the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — an undecided Ichimoku setup.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M +5.1% / 3M -4.5%	Bearish	The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 4.5 points over three months and outperformed by 5.1 points over one month.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty Bank	3M -9.8%	Bearish	Against its sector index (Nifty Bank) the stock was 9.8 points behind over three months.
50	Technical summary	15 bullish · 6 bearish · 28 neutral · 0 caution	Bullish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 977.47, resistance 1,045.70. This is a description of the chart on 30 Jun 2026, not a forecast.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 30 Jun 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 30 Jun 2026 close.

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	10.9×	Neutral	At ₹1,026.90 the market valued the company at about ₹9,48,006 crore, or 10.9× the ₹86,666 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms.
2	Price / Book	1.59×	Neutral	Market cap was 1.59× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹5,96,131 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
3	Price / Revenue (interest earned)	1.84×	Neutral	Market cap was 1.84× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹5,15,235 crore.
4	Profit / Book (earnings power)	14.5%	Neutral	Trailing profit was 14.5% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 1.59× for.
5	Earnings yield	9.1%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹9.1 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	0.75	Bullish	P/E of 10.9 divided by 3-year profit growth of 14.5% a year gives a PEG of 0.75. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	1.69%	Neutral	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹17.35 a share, a 1.69% yield on the ₹1,026.90 price.
8	Market capitalisation	₹9,48,006 cr	Neutral	At about ₹9.48 lakh crore the company was a large-cap, among the largest listed companies in India.
9	Graham number vs price	₹1,167.89 vs ₹1,026.90	Bullish	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹1,167.89; the price was 12% below it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+5.0%	Neutral	Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹5,14,933 crore, +5.0% versus FY25.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+3.3%	Neutral	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹1,31,080 crore of revenue, +3.3% on the same quarter a year earlier.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+7.6%	Neutral	FY26 net profit was ₹86,666 crore, +7.6% on FY25's ₹80,523 crore.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	+0.6%	Neutral	Quarterly profit was ₹20,508 crore versus ₹20,379 crore a year earlier (+0.6%).
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	13.6%	Bullish	Revenue compounded at 13.6% a year from FY23 to FY26.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	14.5%	Bullish	Net profit compounded at 14.5% a year from FY23 to FY26.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	13.1%	Bullish	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 13.1% a year.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+3.8%	Neutral	Reported EPS went from ₹86.91 to ₹90.24 (+3.8%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Net interest margin (Q4 FY26)	2.81%	Bearish	NIM — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was 2.81% in Jan–Mar 2026 (as reported). Above ~3.5% is strong for an Indian bank.
19	Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)	+4.1%	Bearish	Core interest income after interest expense was ₹44,380 crore, +4.1% year on year (standalone, as reported).
20	Net profit margin FY26	16.8%	Neutral	₹16.8 of every ₹100 of interest-led revenue ended up as net profit in FY26.
21	Return on equity FY26	16.0%	Neutral	FY26 profit was 16.0% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak.
22	Leverage (assets ÷ equity)	14.0×	Neutral	Total assets were 14.0× equity — normal for banks, which fund most assets with deposits.
23	Return on assets FY26	1.04%	Neutral	Net profit was 1.04% of total assets. For banks, ROA above 1% is considered healthy.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	25%	Neutral	The company paid about 25% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%.
25	Q4 FY26 standalone profit (reported)	₹19,684 cr (+5.6%)	Neutral	The bank's own (standalone) Jan–Mar 2026 profit as reported was ₹19,684 crore, +5.6% year on year.

D. Asset quality & capital

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Gross NPA (Q4 FY26)	1.49%	Bullish	Gross non-performing assets were 1.49% of loans — low by Indian standards.
27	Net NPA (Q4 FY26)	0.39%	Bullish	After provisions, net NPAs were 0.39% of loans.
28	CASA ratio	39.5%	Neutral	Low-cost current and savings deposits made up 39.5% of deposits — a higher CASA means cheaper funding.
29	Capital adequacy (CRAR)	15.40%	Neutral	Capital adequacy was 15.40%, comfortably above the RBI minimum of 11.5% (incl. buffer).
30	Loan (advances) growth	+16.9%	Bullish	Advances grew +16.9% year on year (as reported).
31	Deposit growth	+11.0%	Neutral	Deposits grew +11.0% year on year (as reported).
32	Deposit base (consolidated)	₹60.43 lakh cr	Neutral	Consolidated deposits were ₹60,43,097 crore at Mar 2026, +11.1% on a year earlier.
33	Book value growth	+22.4%	Bullish	Equity grew +22.4% to ₹5,96,131 crore — banks need book growth to support loan growth.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹38,097 cr	Neutral	Operating cash flow was ₹38,097 crore. For banks this swings with deposit and loan flows, so it says little about profitability.
35	Investing cash flow FY26	₹9,240 cr	Neutral	Investing flows for banks mostly reflect securities and fixed-asset purchases.
36	Financing cash flow FY26	₹-3,427 cr	Neutral	Financing flows reflect borrowings raised/repaid and dividends paid.
37	Net cash flow FY26	₹43,910 cr	Neutral	Overall cash and balances changed by ₹43,910 crore in FY26.
38	Investment book growth	+7.0%	Neutral	The investment portfolio (mostly government securities) moved +7.0% to ₹23,59,502 crore.
39	Loan growth minus deposit growth	+5.8 pts	Caution	Loans grew 16.9% and deposits 11.0%. When loans outpace deposits for long, banks must pay up for funding — a margin risk.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	19%	Neutral	The company paid out about 19% of FY26 profit as dividends.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	18% / 18% / 19%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+3.5%	Caution	Paid-up equity capital changed +3.5% (₹892 cr → ₹923 cr). A fall indicates a buyback; a rise indicates new shares were issued.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	55.52% (-1.91 pts YoY)	Bearish	Promoters owned 55.52% at Mar 2026 versus 57.43% a year earlier.
44	Foreign institutional holding	11.41% (+1.47 pts YoY)	Bullish	FIIs held 11.41% at Mar 2026, up from 9.94% a year before.
45	Domestic institutional holding	26.11% (+1.19 pts YoY)	Bullish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 26.11%, up from 24.92%.
46	Number of shareholders	37.6 lakh (-1.6% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 38.3 lakh to 37.6 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	7/8	Bullish	Passed: positive profit, profit grew, ROA ≥ 1%, gross NPA < 3%, net NPA < 1%, CRAR ≥ 14%, ROE ≥ 12%. Failed: no meaningful dilution (<3%).
49	Automated screen flags	1 strength(s) · 4 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 18.6%. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; Contingent liabilities of Rs.43,52,830 Cr; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost; Earnings include an other income of Rs.1,99,967 Cr. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
50	Fundamental summary	13 bullish · 3 bearish · 31 neutral · 2 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 30 Jun 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 10.9×, P/B 1.59×. This describes the data, not a recommendation.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 1 Apr – 30 Jun 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

20 Apr 2026 SBI top Nifty/Sensex gainer, rises 3.7% intraday — SBI shares rose up to 3.7% to Rs 1,120.95 on NSE, led by PSU bank momentum and anticipation ahead of Q4 results after a strong Q3 (Rs 21,028 crore profit). source
08 May 2026 SBI Q4 FY26 profit up 5.6% to Rs 19,684 crore; NIM falls; stock drops over 7% — Standalone Q4 net profit rose 5.58% YoY to Rs 19,684 crore and NII rose 4.13% to Rs 44,380 crore, while whole-bank NIM fell to 2.81%; gross NPA improved to 1.49%. Board declared a Rs 17.35 dividend; FY26 profit was Rs 80,032 crore. source
12 May 2026 SBI m-cap falls over Rs 1 lakh crore in three sessions after Q4 miss — Shares fell about 11% over three sessions after results missed estimates on margin compression; HDFC Securities and PL Capital kept Buy but cut targets to Rs 1,195 and Rs 1,200. source
12 May 2026 SBI board panel approves examining up to USD 2 billion fund raise in FY27 — The Executive Committee of the Central Board approved examining long-term fund raising of up to USD 2 billion via Reg-S/144A bonds in FY27. FIIs raised their stake to 11.41% in the March 2026 quarter from 10.34%. source
16 May 2026 SBI shareholders elect four directors to Central Board — Sandhya Shekhar, K.R. Ashok, Khurshed Rustom Dordi and Sandeep Natwarlal Shah were elected for a term from 26 June 2026 to 25 June 2029. source
02 Jun 2026 SBI shares fall for fifth straight session; MOFSL keeps Buy with Rs 1,300 target — The stock fell 1.02% to Rs 943.45 on BSE, its fifth straight decline; Motilal Oswal retained Buy, noting top-20 NPA concentration fell to 11.8% at Mar-26 from 29.1%. source
19 Jun 2026 SBI board approves record Rs 60,000 crore bond fund raising for FY27 — SBI approved raising up to Rs 60,000 crore in FY27 through long-term, Basel III AT1 and Tier 2 bonds, versus Rs 18,500 crore raised via domestic bonds in FY26. source

What happened next (30 Jun 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹1,026.90 to ₹954.10 by 01 Oct 2026 (-7.1%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.0% — underperforming by 1.0 points.
Highest ₹1,124.50 on 07 Aug 2026; lowest ₹945.80 on 01 Oct 2026.
S1 977.47: broken on a closing basis on 15 Sep 2026.
S2 938.52: held on a closing basis.
R1 1,045.70: cleared on a closing basis on 01 Jul 2026.
R2 1,084.20: cleared on a closing basis on 06 Aug 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 23 Jul 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 07 Aug 2026): standalone profit ₹21,121 crore (+10.2% YoY), NIM 2.86%, gross NPA 1.47%, net NPA 0.38%.
Shareholding Mar → Jun 2026: Promoters 55.52% → 55.47%, FIIs 11.41% → 10.81%, DIIs 26.11% → 26.52%.

Later news

14 Jul 2026 SBI Funds Management IPO opens; SBI completes USD 200 million bond tap — The IPO of SBI's asset-management arm (SBI holds 61.86%, Amundi 38.14%) opened on 14 July; SBI also tapped USD 200 million of SOFR+100 bp floating-rate notes maturing July 2029. source
17 Jul 2026 SBI Funds Management IPO subscribed 41.66 times; to list on July 21 — The Rs 9,813 crore offer-for-sale was priced at Rs 574 (top of Rs 545-574 band); SBI sold 8.43 crore shares and Amundi 8.66 crore shares. source
07 Aug 2026 SBI Q1 FY27 net profit rises 10% to Rs 21,121 crore; NII up 15% — Standalone net profit rose 10.23% YoY to Rs 21,121 crore and NII rose 14.88% to Rs 46,992 crore; gross NPA improved to 1.47% and net NPA to 0.38%, with advances up 18.63% and deposits up 9.73%. source
07 Aug 2026 SBI chairman sees 14-15% loan growth in FY27 — Chairman C S Setty guided for 14-15% loan growth and 10-11% deposit growth in FY27, citing broad-based credit demand; excess SLR stood at Rs 3.09 lakh crore at 30 June 2026. source
14 Sep 2026 SBI releases Investor Day presentation ahead of institutional meetings — SBI filed its investor presentation for group meetings with institutional investors in Gurugram on 15 September 2026. source

Educational summary. On 30 Jun 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -7.1% against -6.0% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold State Bank of India today.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 03 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50, Nifty Bank via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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