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IT services Historical case study · data as of 30 Jun 2026 · published 03 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

Tata Consultancy Services — 100-point case study

How Tata Consultancy Services looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 30 Jun 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

CodesNSE: TCS · BSE: 532540
Close on 30 Jun 2026₹2,031.50
Market cap then₹7,35,014 crore
ValuationP/E 14.9× · P/B 6.85×
MomentumRSI (14) 33 · 1-year return -41.3%
Next 3 months+2.1% vs Nifty 50 -6.0% (to 01 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

1 bullish · 12 neutral · 3 caution · 33 bearish — the picture leaned negative.

Fundamental — 50 points

15 bullish · 32 neutral · 0 caution · 2 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

1,8862,3102,7333,1573,581Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26R2 2,378R1 2,231S1 2,019Snapshot 30 JunWhat happened next →
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 30 Jun 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

A. Trend

#PointReadingTagCommentary
1Short-term trend (20 days)slope -0.51%/dayBearishOver the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.51% a day — a short-term downtrend.
2Medium-term trend (~5 months)3M return -15.3%BearishThe 100-session trend line was down (-0.31%/day) and the stock was -15.3% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
3Long-term trend (1 year)1Y return -41.3%BearishCompared with a year earlier the price was -41.3%. A weak year for the stock.
4Weekly chart trend10W 2,232.00 / 30W 2,623.78BearishOn the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week.
5Swing structure (highs/lows)last highs 2,457.40→2,231.00; lows 2,206.40→2,110.00BearishThe two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure.
6ADX (14) — trend strength22.3BearishADX at 22.3 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
7+DI vs –DI+DI 16.9 / –DI 36.5Bearish–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.

B. Moving averages

#PointReadingTagCommentary
8Price vs 20-day SMA2,165.73 (-6.2%)BearishClose of 2,031.50 was 6.2% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
9Price vs 50-day SMA2,299.14 (-11.6%)BearishClose of 2,031.50 was 11.6% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
10Price vs 200-day SMA2,790.55 (-27.2%)BearishClose of 2,031.50 was 27.2% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
119 / 21 EMA crossover9E 2,106.40 / 21E 2,164.10BearishThe 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 24 Apr 2026.
12Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)no cross in data windowBearishThe 50-day average was 17.6% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
1350-day SMA slope-4.7% in 20 sessionsBearishThe 50-day average fell 4.7% over the past month — declining.
14MA ribbon alignment2,166 / 2,299 / 2,461 / 2,791BearishThe 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bearish (20 < 50 < 100 < 200).
15Monthly anchored VWAP2,193.14 (-7.4%)BearishAnchored to the start of June, the volume-weighted average price was 2,193.14; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.

C. Momentum

#PointReadingTagCommentary
16RSI (14)32.5BearishRSI at 32.5 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
17RSI divergence (last 40 days)bullish divergenceBullishComparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI made a higher low — selling momentum was fading.
18MACD line vs signalMACD -63.35 / signal -58.63BearishMACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
19MACD histogram (5-day change)-3.80 → -4.72BearishThe histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
20MACD vs zero line-63.35BearishMACD below zero means the 12-day EMA was below the 26-day EMA — a negative momentum regime.
21Stochastic (14,3,3)%K 17.6 / %D 19.4CautionSlow stochastic at 17.6 was in oversold territory (<20).
22Williams %R (14)-94.0Caution%R of -94.0 put the close near the bottom of its 14-day range.
23CCI (20)-132BearishCCI at -132 signalled an unusually strong downward deviation (<–100).
24Rate of change (10-day)-6.0%BearishPrice changed -6.0% over ten sessions.

D. Volatility

#PointReadingTagCommentary
25Bollinger Band position (%B)%B 0.11 (bands 1,991.53–2,339.93)Neutral%B of 0.11 — inside the bands, lower half.
26Bollinger width / squeezewidth 16.1% (78th pct of 6M)NeutralBand width was at the 78th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
27ATR (14)₹61.77 (3.0% of price)NeutralA typical day's range was about ₹61.77, or 3.0% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
28Historical volatility (30-day)39.4% vs 1Y 25.2%CautionAnnualised 30-day volatility was 39.4%, well above the one-year level of 25.2%.
29Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)2,036.56–2,282.82BearishThe close was below the lower channel — a strong trending push.
30Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)0.82NeutralA beta of 0.82 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.

E. Volume & money flow

#PointReadingTagCommentary
31Volume vs 20-day averagelast day 1.22× / 5-day 0.93×NeutralThe final session traded 1.22× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.93× — normal participation.
32Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)ratio 0.63BearishAverage volume on up days was 0.63× that on down days — distribution-leaning.
33On-Balance Volume (20d)OBV fallingBearishOBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move.
34Accumulation/Distribution linefalling (20d)BearishThe A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume.
35Chaikin Money Flow (20)-0.09BearishCMF at -0.09 indicated net outflows.
36Money Flow Index (14)44.0BearishMFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 44.0.
37Liquidity (avg daily turnover)₹1,229 cr/dayNeutralAbout ₹1,229 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — highly liquid.

F. Price levels

#PointReadingTagCommentary
38Support levels (S1/S2/S3)2,018.80NeutralNearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 2,018.80, 0.6% below the close.
39Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)2,231.00 / 2,377.60 / 2,468.50NeutralNearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 2,231.00, 9.8% above the close, then 2,377.60, 2,468.50.
40Monthly pivot points (for next month)P 2,169.23 | R1 2,319.67 | S1 1,881.07NeutralClassic pivots from June's high/low/close gave a pivot of 2,169.23; the close was below it.
41Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)23.6% 2,333 | 38.2% 2,527 | 50.0% 2,684 | 61.8% 2,841NeutralMeasuring the 6-month fall from 3,350.00 to 2,018.80, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 2,332.96.
4252-week high / lowH 3,489.90 / L 2,018.80BearishThe close was 41.8% below the 52-week high and 0.6% above the 52-week low.
43Unfilled price gaps (6M)4 open; latest gap-down 19 Jun at 2,182.00NeutralThere were 4 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 19 Jun 2026, left an open level at 2,182.00 that price had not revisited.

G. Patterns

#PointReadingTagCommentary
44Price structure / chart patternfalling channelBearishRule-based pattern scan: falling channel — successive lower highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
45Breakout / breakdown (20-day)range 2,055.00–2,457.40BearishThe close was breakdown below the prior 20-day range of 2,055.00–2,457.40 — a range break.
46Latest candlestickOrdinary red candleNeutralOn 30 Jun the candle opened 2,090.00, ranged 2,018.80–2,104.30 and closed 2,031.50: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
47Ichimoku Cloudcloud 2,360.45–2,420.70; Tenkan 2,124.90 / Kijun 2,238.10BearishPrice was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.

H. Relative strength & summary

#PointReadingTagCommentary
48Relative strength vs Nifty 501M -11.4% / 3M -19.5%BearishThe stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 19.5 points over three months and underperformed by 11.4 points over one month.
49Relative strength vs Nifty IT3M -4.0%BearishAgainst its sector index (Nifty IT) the stock was 4.0 points behind over three months.
50Technical summary1 bullish · 33 bearish · 12 neutral · 3 cautionBearishAcross the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 2,018.80, resistance 2,231.00. This is a description of the chart on 30 Jun 2026, not a forecast.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 30 Jun 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 30 Jun 2026 close.

A. Valuation

#PointReadingTagCommentary
1P/E (trailing 12 months)14.9×NeutralAt ₹2,031.50 the market valued the company at about ₹7,35,014 crore, or 14.9× the ₹49,454 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms.
2Price / Book6.85×NeutralMarket cap was 6.85× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹1,07,240 crore.
3Price / Sales2.75×NeutralThe company was valued at 2.75× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹2,67,021 crore.
4EV / EBITDA (approx.)10.3×NeutralEnterprise value (market cap + ₹11,283 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 10.3× trailing operating profit of ₹72,398 crore.
5Earnings yield6.7%NeutralThe inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹6.7 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)2.78BearishP/E of 14.9 divided by 3-year profit growth of 5.3% a year gives a PEG of 2.78. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
7Dividend yield (trailing 12M)5.41%BullishDividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹110 a share, a 5.41% yield on the ₹2,031.50 price.
8Market capitalisation₹7,35,014 crNeutralAt about ₹7.35 lakh crore the company was a large-cap, among the largest listed companies in India.
9Graham number vs price₹954.75 vs ₹2,031.50NeutralBenjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹954.75; the price was 113% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.

B. Growth

#PointReadingTagCommentary
10Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)+4.6%NeutralRevenue for FY26 was ₹2,67,021 crore, +4.6% versus FY25.
11Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)+9.6%NeutralThe Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹70,698 crore of revenue, +9.6% on the same quarter a year earlier.
12Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)+1.3%NeutralFY26 net profit was ₹49,454 crore, +1.3% on FY25's ₹48,797 crore.
13Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)+12.1%BullishQuarterly profit was ₹13,784 crore versus ₹12,293 crore a year earlier (+12.1%).
14Revenue CAGR (3 years)5.8%NeutralRevenue compounded at 5.8% a year from FY23 to FY26.
15Profit CAGR (3 years)5.3%NeutralNet profit compounded at 5.3% a year from FY23 to FY26.
16Revenue CAGR (5 years)10.2%NeutralOver five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 10.2% a year.
17EPS growth FY26 (reported)+1.3%NeutralReported EPS went from ₹134.20 to ₹136.01 (+1.3%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).

C. Profitability

#PointReadingTagCommentary
18Operating margin FY2627%NeutralOperating profit (EBITDA) was 27% of sales in FY26 versus 26% in FY25.
19Operating margin trend (4 quarters)27% → 27% → 27% → 27%NeutralQuarterly margins moved from 27% to 27% over the last four quarters — broadly stable.
20Net profit margin FY2618.5%Neutral₹18.5 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26.
21Return on equity FY2649.0%BullishFY26 profit was 49.0% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak.
22ROCE FY2663%BullishReturn on capital employed (debt + equity) was 63% in FY26.
23Return on assets FY2627.30%NeutralNet profit was 27.30% of total assets.
24Effective tax rate FY2624%NeutralThe company paid about 24% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%.
25Other income share of pre-tax profit-0%NeutralNon-operating 'other income' of ₹-124 crore made up -0% of pre-tax profit.

D. Balance sheet

#PointReadingTagCommentary
26Debt / equity0.11BullishBorrowings of ₹11,283 crore were 0.11× equity — very low leverage.
27Debt / EBITDA0.16×BullishDebt equalled 0.16 years of FY26 operating profit.
28Interest coverage54.4×BullishEarnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 54.4 times.
29Book value growth+13.2%BullishShareholders' equity grew +13.2% from ₹94,756 crore to ₹1,07,240 crore in FY26.
30Capital work in progress₹2,665 cr (9% of fixed assets)NeutralProjects under construction (CWIP) were 9% of fixed assets — a modest pipeline.
31Working capital days38 daysNeutralWorking capital tied up equalled 38 days of sales (FY25: 34). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations.
32Cash conversion cycle93 daysNeutralIt took 93 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit.
33Debtor days93 (FY25 84)NeutralCustomers took 93 days on average to pay, versus 84 a year earlier.

E. Cash flow

#PointReadingTagCommentary
34Operating cash flow FY26₹52,094 crBullishThe business generated ₹52,094 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹48,908 crore in FY25.
35Free cash flow FY26₹48,013 crBullishAfter capital spending, free cash flow was ₹48,013 crore.
36Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)1.05×BullishOperating cash flow was 1.05× reported profit — profits were well backed by cash.
37Free-cash-flow yield6.5%BullishFY26 free cash flow was 6.5% of the snapshot market cap.
38Free cash flow — 3-year total₹1,34,695 crBullishFree cash flow over FY24–FY26 added up to ₹1,34,695 crore.
39Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)₹4,081 crNeutralImplied capital expenditure was about ₹4,081 crore, 1.5% of sales.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#PointReadingTagCommentary
40Dividend payout ratio FY2681%NeutralThe company paid out about 81% of FY26 profit as dividends.
41Dividend consistency (3 years)58% / 94% / 81%BullishPayout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year.
42Share capital change (FY25→FY26)+0.0%NeutralPaid-up equity capital changed +0.0% (₹362 cr → ₹362 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution.

G. Ownership

#PointReadingTagCommentary
43Promoter holding71.77% (+0.00 pts YoY)NeutralPromoters owned 71.77% at Mar 2026 versus 71.77% a year earlier.
44Foreign institutional holding9.66% (-2.38 pts YoY)BearishFIIs held 9.66% at Mar 2026, down from 12.04% a year before.
45Domestic institutional holding13.34% (+1.85 pts YoY)BullishMutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 13.34%, up from 11.49%.
46Number of shareholders24.5 lakh (+15.8% YoY)NeutralThe shareholder count moved from 21.2 lakh to 24.5 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47Promoter pledgenone reportedNeutralOur source showed no pledged promoter shares.

H. Quality & summary

#PointReadingTagCommentary
48Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)5/8NeutralPassed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, CFO > net profit, operating margin improved, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: leverage fell, ROA improved, asset turnover improved.
49Automated screen flags3 strength(s) · 2 weakness(es)NeutralStrengths: Stock provides good dividend yield at 3.08%; Company maintains strong ROE track record (3-year ROE: 51.9%); Healthy dividend payout maintained at 77.5%. Weaknesses: Stock trading at 7.00 times book value; Poor sales growth delivered: 10.2% over past five years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
50Fundamental summary15 bullish · 2 bearish · 32 neutral · 0 cautionBullishOn the numbers published by 30 Jun 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 14.9×, P/B 6.85×. This describes the data, not a recommendation.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 1 Apr – 30 Jun 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

What happened next (30 Jun 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)

Later news

Educational summary. On 30 Jun 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved +2.1% against -6.0% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Tata Consultancy Services today.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 03 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50, Nifty IT via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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