Private-sector bankHistorical case study · data as of 21 Jul 2026 · published 24 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Yes Bank — 100-point case study
How Yes Bank looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 21 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Yes Bank has no identified promoter group, so promoter-holding points are marked as not applicable. The 14.5% fall on 15 Oct 2026 followed the Supreme Court ruling on the 2020 AT1 bond write-off — a legal event, not a corporate action. Capital adequacy (CRAR) was not found in our sources.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 21 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope -0.38%/day
Bearish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.38% a day — a short-term downtrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +16.6%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.30%/day) and the stock was +16.6% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +14.8%
Bullish
Compared with a year earlier the price was +14.8%. A strong positive year.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 23.67 / 30W 21.64
Neutral
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 23.77→25.78; lows 22.18→23.32
Bullish
The two most recent swing points showed higher swing highs and higher swing lows — classic uptrend structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
18.3
Neutral
ADX at 18.3 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 14.7 / –DI 27.1
Bearish
–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
24.03 (-3.7%)
Bearish
Close of 23.14 was 3.7% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
23.39 (-1.1%)
Bearish
Close of 23.14 was 1.1% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
21.83 (+6.0%)
Bullish
Close of 23.14 was 6.0% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 23.52 / 21E 23.72
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 14 Jul 2026.
The 50-day average was 7.1% above the 200-day. The most recent signal was a golden cross on 17 Jun 2026.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+7.0% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 7.0% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
24 / 23 / 22 / 22
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
23.79 (-2.7%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 23.79; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
43.4
Bearish
RSI at 43.4 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -0.06 / signal 0.12
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-0.20 → -0.19
Bullish
The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.13 (bands 22.84–25.21)
Neutral
%B of 0.13 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 9.9% (21st pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 21st percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹0.56 (2.4% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹0.56, or 2.4% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
31.7% vs 1Y 27.6%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 31.7%, close to the one-year level of 27.6%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
22.66–24.78
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.23
Neutral
A beta of 1.23 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.91× / 5-day 0.91×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.91× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.91× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.08
Neutral
Average volume on up days was 1.08× that on down days — balanced.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV falling
Bearish
OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹204 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
22.24 / 21.01 / 19.72
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 22.24, 4.1% below the close, then 21.01, 19.72.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
23.59 / 24.79 / 25.38
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 23.59, 2.0% above the close, then 24.79, 25.38.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 23.55 | R1 24.38 | S1 22.30
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 23.55; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 24 | 38.2% 23 | 50.0% 21 | 61.8% 20
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month rise from 17.20 to 25.78, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 23.76.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 25.78 / L 17.20
Neutral
The close was 10.2% below the 52-week high and 34.5% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
3 open; latest gap-up 25 May at 21.97
Neutral
There were 3 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 25 May 2026, left an open level at 21.97 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
pullback inside a larger uptrend
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: pullback inside a larger uptrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 22.71–25.56
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 22.71–25.56.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Inside bar
Neutral
On 21 Jul the candle opened 22.95, ranged 22.95–23.31 and closed 23.14: Inside bar — range contraction. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 20.48–22.61; Tenkan 23.37 / Kijun 24.25
Bullish
Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -9.7% / 3M +17.4%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 17.4 points over three months and underperformed by 9.7 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty Bank
3M +14.4%
Bullish
Against its sector index (Nifty Bank) the stock was 14.4 points ahead over three months.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
10 bullish · 15 bearish · 23 neutral · 1 caution
Bearish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 22.24, resistance 23.59. This is a description of the chart on 21 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 21 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Jun 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 21 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
20.7×
Neutral
At ₹23.14 the market valued the company at about ₹72,728 crore, or 20.7× the ₹3,512 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
1.42×
Neutral
Market cap was 1.42× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹51,158 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Revenue (interest earned)
2.41×
Neutral
Market cap was 2.41× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹30,209 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
Profit / Book (earnings power)
6.9%
Neutral
Trailing profit was 6.9% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 1.42× for.
How to read: Information only.
5
Earnings yield
4.8%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹4.8 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
0.30
Bullish
P/E of 20.7 divided by 3-year profit growth of 68.4% a year gives a PEG of 0.30. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
n/a
Neutral
Dividend history in our data window was not available.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹72,728 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.73 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹20.23 vs ₹23.14
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹20.23; the price was 14% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
-2.3%
Bearish
Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹30,208 crore, -2.3% versus FY25.
NIM — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was 2.70% in Jan–Mar 2026 (as reported). Above ~3.5% is strong for an Indian bank.
Bullish 3.5% or more · Bearish below 3.0% · Neutral 3.0–3.5%.
19
Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)
+16.0%
Bullish
Core interest income after interest expense was ₹2,638 crore, +16.0% year on year (standalone, as reported).
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
2 strength(s) · 7 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Stock is trading at 0.94 times its book value; Company has delivered good profit growth of 24.6% CAGR over last 5 years. Weaknesses: Though the company is reporting repeated profits, it is not paying out dividend; Company has low interest coverage ratio; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 8.55% over past five years; Company has a low return on equity of 5.33% over last 3 years; Contingent liabilities of Rs.12,24,826 Cr; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost; Earnings include an other income of Rs.7,358 Cr. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
11 bullish · 5 bearish · 33 neutral · 0 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 21 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 20.7×, P/B 1.42×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 21 Apr 2026 – 21 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
15 Jun 2026YES Bank shares climb 7% in two sessions after Q4 FY26 results — Shares rose 3.26% to close at Rs 23.77, up 6.93% over two sessions, with the move linked to Q4 FY26 profit growth (net profit Rs 1,068.42 crore, up 44.7% YoY) and improved asset quality. source
17 Jun 2026Yes Bank rises for fourth session after Northern Arc MoU — Northern Arc Capital announced an MoU with Yes Bank on 15 June 2026 to help deploy credit through its network of 368 originator partners; the stock rose about 13% over four sessions. source
18 Jun 2026YES Bank hits fresh 52-week high of Rs 25.78 — The stock touched an intraday 52-week high of Rs 25.78, extending a five-session rally of about 16% and recovering roughly 50% from its 30 March 2026 low of Rs 17.20. source
29 Jun 2026Board approves fundraising of up to Rs 16,000 crore — The board approved raising up to Rs 7,500 crore via equity and up to Rs 8,500 crore via debt securities, subject to shareholder approval at the AGM on 19 August; equity dilution is capped at 10% of existing share capital. source
30 Jun 2026CareEdge upgrades Yes Bank's long-term bond ratings — CareEdge Ratings upgraded the long-term ratings on Yes Bank's infrastructure and Tier II bonds with a Stable outlook, citing advances growth, lower gross NPA (1.30%) and SMBC's 24.90% stake. source
18 Jul 2026Q1 FY27 net profit rises 33.7% to Rs 1,071 crore — Standalone net profit for April-June 2026 was Rs 1,070.99 crore, up 33.7% YoY; NII rose 17.5% to Rs 2,786.46 crore, with gross NPA at 1.3% and net NPA at 0.2%. source
What happened next (21 Jul 2026 → 23 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹23.14 to ₹15.80 by 23 Oct 2026 (-31.7%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.6% — underperforming by 25.2 points.
Highest ₹24.10 on 16 Sep 2026; lowest ₹15.64 on 23 Oct 2026.
S1 22.24: broken on a closing basis on 28 Aug 2026.
S2 21.01: broken on a closing basis on 29 Sep 2026.
R1 23.59: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 24.79: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 28 Sep 2026.
08 Oct 2026Q2 FY27 business update: loans up 23.8%, deposits up 19.5% — Loans reached Rs 309,675 crore (up 23.8% YoY) and deposits Rs 354,084 crore (up 19.5% YoY) at end-September 2026, while the CASA ratio fell to 30% from 32.7% in Q1 FY27; results were set for 17 October. source
15 Oct 2026Shares fall 14% after Supreme Court ruling on AT1 bonds — The stock fell about 14% intraday to a 52-week low of Rs 16.96 after the Supreme Court upheld the Bombay High Court ruling that set aside the 2020 write-off of the bank's AT1 bonds; media reports cited a possible payout of about Rs 15,600 crore. source
16 Oct 2026Bank says AT1 ruling may cut CET1 by about 250 bps — Yes Bank said the proforma impact of the AT1 judgment on its CET1 ratio is expected to be about 250 bps, with Tier 1 at 14.0% proforma; shares fell a further ~3% and several brokerages kept sell/underweight ratings. source
17 Oct 2026Q2 FY27 results: net profit up 63-65% YoY — Yes Bank reported Q2 FY27 results on 17 October 2026: standalone net profit of about Rs 1,080 crore (up 65% YoY) with NII of Rs 2,822 crore (up 22.7%); consolidated PAT was Rs 1,084.08 crore. source
Educational summary. On 21 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -31.7% against -6.6% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Yes Bank today.
Method designed by our founder, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 24 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50, Nifty Bank via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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