Diversified financial servicesHistorical case study · data as of 09 Jul 2026 · published 12 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Aditya Birla Capital — 100-point case study
How Aditya Birla Capital looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 09 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Financial figures are standalone (Screener's consolidated page was out of date when collected), so insurance and AMC subsidiaries are not fully reflected. Price history combines Yahoo Finance and EquityPandit (exact match on overlapping days).
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 09 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.64%/day
Bullish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.64% a day — a short-term uptrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +28.8%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.18%/day) and the stock was +28.8% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +45.4%
Bullish
Compared with a year earlier the price was +45.4%. A strong positive year.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 372.16 / 30W 349.23
Bullish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 375.95→369.80; lows 339.45→334.80
Bearish
The two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
28.1
Bullish
ADX at 28.1 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 25.1 / –DI 20.1
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
383.99 (+3.5%)
Bullish
Close of 397.35 was 3.5% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
365.62 (+8.7%)
Bullish
Close of 397.35 was 8.7% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
339.93 (+16.9%)
Bullish
Close of 397.35 was 16.9% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 394.67 / 21E 384.85
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 15 Jun 2026.
The 50-day average was 7.6% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+6.4% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 6.4% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
384 / 366 / 348 / 340
Bullish
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bullish (20 > 50 > 100 > 200).
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
398.47 (-0.3%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 398.47; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
58.5
Bullish
RSI at 58.5 showed positive momentum without being overbought.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 10.97 / signal 10.83
Bullish
MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
1.94 → 0.14
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.69 (bands 349.34–418.64)
Neutral
%B of 0.69 — inside the bands, upper half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 18.0% (79th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 79th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹11.53 (2.9% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹11.53, or 2.9% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
38.8% vs 1Y 33.1%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 38.8%, close to the one-year level of 33.1%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
362.24–408.98
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.69
Neutral
A beta of 1.69 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.61× / 5-day 0.95×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.61× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.95× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.26
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 1.26× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹186 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
340.06 / 322.83 / 317.00
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 340.06, 16.8% below the close, then 322.83, 317.00.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
399.35 / 410.70
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 399.35, 0.5% above the close, then 410.70.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 397.35 | R1 410.70 | S1 384.00
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 397.35; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 382 | 38.2% 364 | 50.0% 349 | 61.8% 335
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month rise from 287.70 to 410.70, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 381.67.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 410.70 / L 243.00
Bullish
The close was 3.3% below the 52-week high and 63.5% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
3 open; latest gap-down 08 Jul at 404.60
Neutral
There were 3 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 08 Jul 2026, left an open level at 404.60 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
rising channel
Bullish
Rule-based pattern scan: rising channel — successive higher highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 334.80–410.70
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 334.80–410.70.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Inside bar
Neutral
On 09 Jul the candle opened 386.80, ranged 386.70–401.35 and closed 397.35: Inside bar — range contraction. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 331.82–356.50; Tenkan 397.35 / Kijun 372.75
Bullish
Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M +10.0% / 3M +25.2%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 25.2 points over three months and outperformed by 10.0 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M +19.4%
Bullish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 19.4 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
26 bullish · 4 bearish · 19 neutral · 0 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 340.06, resistance 399.35. This is a description of the chart on 09 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 09 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 09 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
35.0×
Neutral
At ₹397.35 the market valued the company at about ₹1,08,704 crore, or 35.0× the ₹3,109 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
3.79×
Neutral
Market cap was 3.79× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹28,702 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Revenue (interest earned)
6.22×
Neutral
Market cap was 6.22× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹17,473 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
Profit / Book (earnings power)
10.8%
Neutral
Trailing profit was 10.8% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 3.79× for.
How to read: Information only.
5
Earnings yield
2.9%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹2.9 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
0.19
Caution
P/E of 35.0 divided by 3-year profit growth of 180.4% a year gives a PEG of 0.19. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
n/a
Neutral
Dividend history in our data window was not available.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹1,08,704 cr
Neutral
At about ₹1.09 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹163.79 vs ₹397.35
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹163.79; the price was 143% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+13.0%
Bullish
Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹17,473 crore, +13.0% versus FY25.
Revenue compounded at 328.6% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15
Profit CAGR (3 years)
180.4%
Caution
Net profit compounded at 180.4% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
176.6%
Caution
Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 176.6% a year. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17
EPS growth FY26 (reported)
+4.7%
Neutral
Reported EPS went from ₹11.34 to ₹11.87 (+4.7%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
1 strength(s) · 4 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company has delivered good profit growth of 112% CAGR over last 5 years. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 3.47 times its book value; Though the company is reporting repeated profits, it is not paying out dividend; Company has low interest coverage ratio; Company has a low return on equity of 13.5% over last 3 years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
7 bullish · 0 bearish · 38 neutral · 4 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 09 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 35.0×, P/B 3.79×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 09 Apr 2026 – 09 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
04 May 2026Aditya Birla Capital reports Q4 FY26 results; consolidated profit up 30% to Rs 1,124 crore — For the quarter ended March 2026, consolidated revenue rose 12% YoY to Rs 15,877 crore and consolidated PAT rose 30% to Rs 1,124 crore; FY26 consolidated PAT was Rs 3,797 crore. The total lending portfolio crossed Rs 2 lakh crore. source
20 May 2026Board approves Rs 4,000 crore preferential equity issue at Rs 356.02 per share — The board approved raising Rs 4,000 crore via a preferential issue to Grasim Industries (Rs 2,880 crore), International Finance Corporation (Rs 920 crore) and Suryaja Investments (Rs 200 crore), subject to shareholder approval at an EGM on June 12, 2026. source
12 Jun 2026Shareholders approve preferential issue at EGM — Shareholders passed three special resolutions at an extraordinary general meeting authorising the preferential allotment to Grasim, IFC and Suryaja Investments, with over 99% of votes cast in favour. source
23 Jun 2026Aditya Birla Capital allots 11.24 crore shares in preferential issue — The company allotted 11,23,53,236 equity shares at Rs 356.02 each to Grasim Industries, Suryaja Investments and International Finance Corporation, completing the Rs 4,000 crore equity raise. source
What happened next (09 Jul 2026 → 09 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹397.35 to ₹380.70 by 09 Oct 2026 (-4.2%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.0% — outperforming by 1.8 points.
Highest ₹430.70 on 03 Aug 2026; lowest ₹367.80 on 08 Oct 2026.
S1 340.06: held on a closing basis.
S2 322.83: held on a closing basis.
R1 399.35: cleared on a closing basis on 10 Jul 2026.
R2 410.70: cleared on a closing basis on 03 Aug 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
24 Jul 2026Aditya Birla Capital allots Rs 260 crore of non-convertible debentures — The company allotted 26,000 secured, listed NCDs worth Rs 260 crore on a private placement basis, carrying an 8.10% annual coupon and maturing on September 7, 2029. source
31 Jul 2026Q1 FY27 results: consolidated net profit up 40% to Rs 1,175 crore — For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, consolidated net profit rose 40% YoY to about Rs 1,175 crore and consolidated revenue rose 29% to Rs 14,731 crore; the total lending portfolio grew 32% YoY to Rs 2,19,289 crore. source
03 Aug 2026Shares hit record high of Rs 430.70 after Q1 results — The stock rose more than 6% intraday to a record Rs 430.70 in the first session after the Q1 FY27 results announcement. source
06 Aug 2026Company publishes Q1 FY27 earnings call transcript — Aditya Birla Capital published the transcript of its July 31, 2026 conference call on results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. source
Educational summary. On 09 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -4.2% against -6.0% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Aditya Birla Capital today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 12 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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