Infrastructure constructionHistorical case study · data as of 22 Jul 2026 · published 25 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Afcons Infrastructure — 100-point case study
How Afcons Infrastructure looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 22 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Screener reports that promoters had pledged their entire holding (about 50% of the company). The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter was a net loss.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 22 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope -0.52%/day
Bearish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.52% a day — a short-term downtrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return -13.7%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.07%/day) and the stock was -13.7% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -32.2%
Bearish
Compared with a year earlier the price was -32.2%. A weak year for the stock.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 312.04 / 30W 319.12
Bearish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 346.50→324.90; lows 289.80→309.15
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
12.8
Neutral
ADX at 12.8 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 20.6 / –DI 26.3
Bearish
–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
303.41 (-4.4%)
Bearish
Close of 289.95 was 4.4% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
313.80 (-7.6%)
Bearish
Close of 289.95 was 7.6% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
352.22 (-17.7%)
Bearish
Close of 289.95 was 17.7% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 294.93 / 21E 301.90
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 18 Jun 2026.
The 50-day average was 10.9% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
-3.5% in 20 sessions
Bearish
The 50-day average fell 3.5% over the past month — declining.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
303 / 314 / 309 / 352
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
298.03 (-2.7%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 298.03; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
38.1
Bearish
RSI at 38.1 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -7.11 / signal -6.13
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-2.36 → -0.98
Bullish
The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.17 (bands 282.84–323.99)
Neutral
%B of 0.17 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 13.6% (45th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 45th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹9.89 (3.4% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹9.89, or 3.4% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
31.7% vs 1Y 31.6%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 31.7%, close to the one-year level of 31.6%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
281.89–320.96
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
0.82
Neutral
A beta of 0.82 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 1.26× / 5-day 3.39×
Neutral
The final session traded 1.26× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 3.39× — heavier than usual participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 12.93
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 12.93× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price fell — volume diverged from price.
About ₹52 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
289.80 / 281.65 / 270.75
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 289.80, 0.1% below the close, then 281.65, 270.75.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
300.95 / 313.70 / 324.90
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 300.95, 3.8% above the close, then 313.70, 324.90.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 296.82 | R1 311.98 | S1 274.78
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 296.82; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 342 | 38.2% 328 | 50.0% 316 | 61.8% 304
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month rise from 265.80 to 366.00, the close was nearest the 61.8% retracement at 304.08.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 479.40 / L 265.80
Neutral
The close was 39.5% below the 52-week high and 9.1% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
none
Neutral
No unfilled price gaps in the last six months.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
pullback inside a larger uptrend
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: pullback inside a larger uptrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 281.65–324.90
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 281.65–324.90.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Hammer-type candle
Bullish
On 22 Jul the candle opened 291.30, ranged 282.15–292.20 and closed 289.95: Hammer-type candle — buyers rejected lower prices. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 318.00–326.12; Tenkan 297.67 / Kijun 305.73
Bearish
Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -7.7% / 3M -11.3%
Bearish
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 11.3 points over three months and underperformed by 7.7 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M -12.9%
Bearish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 12.9 points behind the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
7 bullish · 20 bearish · 21 neutral · 1 caution
Bearish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 289.80, resistance 300.95. This is a description of the chart on 22 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 22 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Jun 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 22 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
42.6×
Neutral
At ₹289.95 the market valued the company at about ₹10,656 crore, or 42.6× the ₹250 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
1.96×
Neutral
Market cap was 1.96× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹5,450 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
0.89×
Neutral
The company was valued at 0.89× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹11,948 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
11.7×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹3,627 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 11.7× trailing operating profit of ₹1,217 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
2.3%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹2.3 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
n/m
Neutral
PEG is not meaningful because 3-year profit growth was -15.2%.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
n/a
Neutral
Dividend history in our data window was not available.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹10,656 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.11 lakh crore the company was a small-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹150.65 vs ₹289.95
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹150.65; the price was 92% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
-4.8%
Bearish
Revenue for FY26 was ₹11,948 crore, -4.8% versus FY25.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
1 strength(s) · 5 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 22.4%. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 4.97% over past five years; Company has a low return on equity of 9.64% over last 3 years; Promoters have pledged 100% of their holding; Cost of borrowing appears high (paraphrased). (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
2 bullish · 16 bearish · 28 neutral · 3 caution
Bearish
On the numbers published by 22 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned negative. Valuation: P/E 42.6×, P/B 1.96×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 22 Apr 2026 – 22 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
11 May 2026Afcons Wins Rs 7,544 Crore Railway Project in Croatia — Afcons was identified as the most suitable bidder for reconstruction and doubling of the Dugo Selo-Novska railway line in Croatia, valued at EUR 677.07 million (about Rs 7,544 crore), its entry into Europe and largest international order. source
20 May 2026Afcons Infrastructure shares extend decline after weak Q4 earnings; brokerages mixed, check target prices — After Q4 FY26 results (revenue down about 19% to ~Rs 2,600 crore, consolidated net loss), shares fell a third session to about Rs 308. Elara downgraded to Sell (TP 282), ICICI Securities Hold (TP 315), Nuvama Buy (TP 398); FY26 order inflow was Rs 4,100 crore vs Rs 20,000 crore guidance; order book Rs 32,500 crore. source
21 May 2026Afcons Wins Rs 53.01 bn Vadhavan Port Breakwater Contract — Afcons won a Rs 5,301 crore contract for breakwater construction at Vadhavan Port covering engineering, procurement and marine works. source
17 Jul 2026Afcons Infrastructure Share Price Rising Today: Stock Jumps 6.03% to Rs 302.60 on 17 July 2026 — Shares rose about 6% intraday (range Rs 281.65-313.70) on heavy volume of about 1.63 crore shares; no confirmed trigger was reported at the time. source
What happened next (22 Jul 2026 → 23 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹289.95 to ₹217.84 by 23 Oct 2026 (-24.9%) while the Nifty 50 moved -5.8% — underperforming by 19.1 points.
Highest ₹304.55 on 15 Sep 2026; lowest ₹216.28 on 23 Oct 2026.
S1 289.80: broken on a closing basis on 23 Jul 2026.
S2 281.65: broken on a closing basis on 28 Jul 2026.
R1 300.95: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 313.70: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 07 Aug 2026): revenue ₹2,671 crore (-20.7% YoY), net profit ₹30 crore (-78.1% YoY), operating margin 9% vs 13% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
06 Aug 2026Afcons Gets Approval For Rs 1,918 Crore Desalinated Water Tunnel Project In Mumbai — Afcons received a Letter of Acceptance from BMC for a Rs 1,918 crore desalinated water conveyance tunnel from Manori to Charkop/Kandivali. source
07 Aug 2026Afcons Press Release: Q1 FY27 results — Q1 FY27 consolidated total income Rs 2,727 crore (-20.3% YoY), EBITDA Rs 263 crore (9.6% margin), PAT Rs 30 crore (-77.9% YoY); order inflow Rs 13,219 crore, order book Rs 43,290 crore. source
15 Sep 2026Afcons Infra Shares Snap Four-Session Fall With Around 19% Rebound — After falling about 13.5% over four sessions, shares rose as much as 19% intraday on heavy volume amid reports on Tata Sons (in which the Shapoorji Pallonji group holds ~18.5%); article also notes a Rs 335.50 crore arbitral award from UPEIDA received on 24 Aug 2026. source
Educational summary. On 22 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned negative. Over the next three months the stock moved -24.9% against -5.8% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Afcons Infrastructure today.
Method designed by our founder, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 25 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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