Today › Commercial vehicles › Ashok Leyland

Commercial vehicles Historical case study · data as of 09 Jul 2026 · published 12 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

Ashok Leyland — 100-point case study

How Ashok Leyland looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 09 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: ASHOKLEY · BSE: 500477
Close on 09 Jul 2026	₹155.19
Market cap then	₹91,194 crore
Valuation	P/E 25.6× · P/B 6.95×
Momentum	RSI (14) 47 · 1-year return +23.7%
Next 3 months	-6.5% vs Nifty 50 -6.0% (to 09 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

7 bullish · 25 neutral · 1 caution · 16 bearish — the picture leaned negative.

Fundamental — 50 points

16 bullish · 29 neutral · 4 caution · 0 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Data note: Financial figures are standalone (Screener's consolidated page was out of date when collected), so the Hinduja Leyland Finance subsidiary is not included. Prices are adjusted for the 1:1 bonus issue (ex-date 16 Jul 2025).

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 09 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope +0.36%/day	Bullish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.36% a day — a short-term uptrend. Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return +1.5%	Bearish	The 100-session trend line was down (-0.32%/day) and the stock was +1.5% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish. Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return +23.7%	Bullish	Compared with a year earlier the price was +23.7%. A strong positive year. Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 157.00 / 30W 174.19	Bearish	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week. Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 165.80→160.89; lows 138.03→150.30	Neutral	The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure. Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	16.2	Neutral	ADX at 16.2 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction. Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 23.7 / –DI 25.8	Bearish	–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement. Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	157.72 (-1.6%)	Bearish	Close of 155.19 was 1.6% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	156.58 (-0.9%)	Bearish	Close of 155.19 was 0.9% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	165.18 (-6.0%)	Bearish	Close of 155.19 was 6.0% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 159.60 / 21E 158.06	Bullish	The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 18 Jun 2026. Bullish 9-day above 21-day · Bearish 9-day below 21-day · No neutral zone.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	last death cross 05 Jun 2026	Bearish	The 50-day average was 5.2% below the 200-day. The most recent signal was a death cross on 05 Jun 2026. Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13	50-day SMA slope	-2.4% in 20 sessions	Bearish	The 50-day average fell 2.4% over the past month — declining. Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14	MA ribbon alignment	158 / 157 / 170 / 165	Neutral	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range. Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	162.07 (-4.2%)	Bearish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 162.07; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water. Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	46.8	Neutral	RSI at 46.8 was in the neutral 45–55 zone. Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	none	Neutral	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price. Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD 1.43 / signal 1.30	Bullish	MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive. Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	1.56 → 0.13	Bearish	The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening. Bullish histogram rising (momentum improving) · Bearish histogram falling (momentum weakening) · No neutral zone.
20	MACD vs zero line	1.43	Bullish	MACD above zero means the 12-day EMA was above the 26-day EMA — a positive momentum regime. Bullish MACD above zero · Bearish MACD below zero · No neutral zone.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 47.7 / %D 67.0	Bearish	Slow stochastic at 47.7 was mid-range with %K below %D. Bullish between 20 and 80 with %K above %D · Bearish between 20 and 80 with %K below %D · Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
22	Williams %R (14)	-71.7	Neutral	%R of -71.7 put the close in the middle of its 14-day range. How to read: Caution above –20 (near the top) or below –80 (near the bottom). Neutral in the middle. This point is never tagged Bullish or Bearish.
23	CCI (20)	-25	Neutral	CCI at -25 was within the normal ±100 band. Bullish above +100 (unusually strong upward move) · Bearish below –100 (unusually strong downward move) · Neutral within ±100.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	+0.2%	Neutral	Price changed +0.2% over ten sessions. Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.40 (bands 145.65–169.78)	Neutral	%B of 0.40 — inside the bands, lower half. How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 15.3% (29th pct of 6M)	Neutral	Band width was at the 29th percentile of the last six months, a normal level. How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27	ATR (14)	₹5.15 (3.3% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹5.15, or 3.3% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect. How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	46.5% vs 1Y 36.3%	Caution	Annualised 30-day volatility was 46.5%, well above the one-year level of 36.3%. How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	147.97–168.32	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout. Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	1.88	Neutral	A beta of 1.88 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day. How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 0.59× / 5-day 0.59×	Neutral	The final session traded 0.59× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.59× — lighter than usual participation. How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 1.53	Bullish	Average volume on up days was 1.53× that on down days — accumulation-leaning. Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV rising	Bullish	OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move. Bullish OBV rising · Bearish OBV falling · No neutral zone.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	falling (20d)	Bearish	The A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume. Bullish A/D line rising · Bearish A/D line falling · No neutral zone.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	-0.07	Bearish	CMF at -0.07 indicated net outflows. Bullish above +0.05 (net inflows) · Bearish below –0.05 (net outflows) · Neutral between –0.05 and +0.05.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	54.4	Neutral	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 54.4. Bullish MFI 55–80 · Bearish MFI 20–45 · Neutral 45–55. Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹462 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹462 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid. How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	149.53 / 143.46 / 138.38	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 149.53, 3.8% below the close, then 143.46, 138.38. How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	160.89 / 165.95 / 172.86	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 160.89, 3.7% above the close, then 165.95, 172.86. How to read: Information only.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 159.25 \| R1 163.49 \| S1 150.95	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 159.25; the close was below it. How to read: Information only.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 156 \| 38.2% 168 \| 50.0% 177 \| 61.8% 186	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month fall from 215.42 to 138.03, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 156.29. How to read: Information only.
42	52-week high / low	H 215.42 / L 114.96	Neutral	The close was 28.0% below the 52-week high and 35.0% above the 52-week low. Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	1 open; latest gap-up 12 Jun at 140.90	Neutral	There was 1 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 12 Jun 2026, left an open level at 140.90 that price had not revisited. How to read: Information only.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend	Neutral	Rule-based pattern scan: counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.) Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 138.03–167.55	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 138.03–167.55. Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary red candle	Neutral	On 09 Jul the candle opened 157.10, ranged 155.01–158.85 and closed 155.19: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own. Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 157.40–162.26; Tenkan 161.28 / Kijun 152.79	Bearish	Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup. Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M +4.8% / 3M -2.2%	Bearish	The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 2.2 points over three months and outperformed by 4.8 points over one month. Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M -5.1%	Bearish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 5.1 points behind the Nifty 50. Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50	Technical summary	7 bullish · 16 bearish · 25 neutral · 1 caution	Bearish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 149.53, resistance 160.89. This is a description of the chart on 09 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 09 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 09 Jul 2026 close.

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	25.6×	Neutral	At ₹155.19 the market valued the company at about ₹91,194 crore, or 25.6× the ₹3,566 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple. How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2	Price / Book	6.95×	Neutral	Market cap was 6.95× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹13,113 crore. How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3	Price / Sales	2.07×	Neutral	The company was valued at 2.07× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹44,007 crore. How to read: Information only.
4	EV / EBITDA (approx.)	16.1×	Neutral	Enterprise value (market cap + ₹1,195 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 16.1× trailing operating profit of ₹5,733 crore. How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5	Earnings yield	3.9%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹3.9 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds. How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	0.69	Caution	P/E of 25.6 divided by 3-year profit growth of 37.2% a year gives a PEG of 0.69. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-249 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2023, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it. Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	2.26%	Neutral	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹3.5 a share, a 2.26% yield on the ₹155.19 price. Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8	Market capitalisation	₹91,194 cr	Neutral	At about ₹0.91 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap. How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9	Graham number vs price	₹55.20 vs ₹155.19	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹55.20; the price was 181% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number. Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+13.6%	Bullish	Revenue for FY26 was ₹44,007 crore, +13.6% versus FY25. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% (revenue fell) · Neutral 0–10%.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+18.9%	Bullish	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹14,160 crore of revenue, +18.9% on the same quarter a year earlier. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+8.0%	Neutral	FY26 net profit was ₹3,566 crore, +8.0% on FY25's ₹3,303 crore. Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-249 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%. Caution if a one-off item distorted the figure.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	+12.8%	Caution	Quarterly profit was ₹1,405 crore versus ₹1,246 crore a year earlier (+12.8%). Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-249 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	6.8%	Neutral	Revenue compounded at 6.8% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2023, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	37.2%	Caution	Net profit compounded at 37.2% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-249 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2023, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	23.5%	Caution	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 23.5% a year. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2023, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+8.0%	Neutral	Reported EPS went from ₹5.62 to ₹6.07 (+8.0%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹-249 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Operating margin FY26	13%	Neutral	Operating profit (EBITDA) was 13% of sales in FY26 versus 13% in FY25. How to read: Information only — normal margins differ a lot by industry.
19	Operating margin trend (4 quarters)	11% → 12% → 13% → 15%	Bullish	Quarterly margins moved from 11% to 15% over the last four quarters — expanding. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral when broadly stable.
20	Net profit margin FY26	8.1%	Neutral	₹8.1 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26. How to read: Information only.
21	Return on equity FY26	29.0%	Bullish	FY26 profit was 29.0% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak. Bullish above 18% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–18%. Around 15% or more is generally considered good.
22	ROCE FY26	38%	Bullish	Return on capital employed (debt + equity) was 38% in FY26. Bullish above 20% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–20%.
23	Return on assets FY26	12.47%	Neutral	Net profit was 12.47% of total assets. Bullish banks only: 1.5% or more · Bearish banks only: below 1% · Information only for non-banks.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	26%	Neutral	The company paid about 26% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%. How to read: Information only. India’s base corporate rate is about 25%.
25	Other income share of pre-tax profit	-1%	Neutral	Non-operating 'other income' of ₹-33 crore made up -1% of pre-tax profit. How to read: Caution above 25% (headline profit leans on non-core income). Neutral otherwise.

D. Balance sheet

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Debt / equity	0.09	Bullish	Borrowings of ₹1,195 crore were 0.09× equity — very low leverage. Bullish below 0.3 (very low leverage) · Bearish above 1 (high leverage) · Neutral 0.3–1.
27	Debt / EBITDA	0.21×	Bullish	Debt equalled 0.21 years of FY26 operating profit. Bullish below 1× · Bearish above 3× · Neutral 1–3×.
28	Interest coverage	29.3×	Bullish	Earnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 29.3 times. Bullish above 8× · Bearish below 3× · Neutral 3–8×, or not meaningful when interest is negligible.
29	Book value growth	+13.8%	Bullish	Shareholders' equity grew +13.8% from ₹11,519 crore to ₹13,113 crore in FY26. Bullish above 10% (banks: above 12%) · Bearish below 0% (non-banks only) · Neutral otherwise.
30	Capital work in progress	₹479 cr (7% of fixed assets)	Neutral	Projects under construction (CWIP) were 7% of fixed assets — a modest pipeline. How to read: Information only. Above 20% means a big expansion pipeline that is not yet earning.
31	Working capital days	-48 days	Neutral	Working capital tied up equalled -48 days of sales (FY25: -46). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations. How to read: Information only. Lower is generally more efficient; negative means suppliers or customers fund the business.
32	Cash conversion cycle	-32 days	Neutral	It took -32 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit. How to read: Information only. Shorter is generally better.
33	Debtor days	24 (FY25 27)	Neutral	Customers took 24 days on average to pay, versus 27 a year earlier. How to read: Caution when debtor days rose more than 20% in a year (collections stretching). Neutral otherwise.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹4,792 cr	Neutral	The business generated ₹4,792 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹7,819 crore in FY25. Bullish positive and higher than the year before · Bearish negative · Neutral when positive but lower. Information only for banks.
35	Free cash flow FY26	₹3,814 cr	Bullish	After capital spending, free cash flow was ₹3,814 crore. Bullish positive · Bearish negative · Neutral when not available.
36	Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)	1.34×	Bullish	Operating cash flow was 1.34× reported profit — profits were well backed by cash. Bullish above 1× (profits well backed by cash) · Caution below 0.7×. Neutral 0.7–1×.
37	Free-cash-flow yield	4.2%	Bullish	FY26 free cash flow was 4.2% of the snapshot market cap. Bullish above 4% · Neutral at 4% or less.
38	Free cash flow — 3-year total	₹12,731 cr	Bullish	Free cash flow over FY24–FY26 added up to ₹12,731 crore. Bullish positive total · Bearish negative total · Neutral when not available.
39	Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)	₹978 cr	Neutral	Implied capital expenditure was about ₹978 crore, 2.2% of sales. How to read: Information only.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	58%	Neutral	The company paid out about 58% of FY26 profit as dividends. How to read: Information only. High payout suits mature businesses; growing firms often keep more.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	56% / 56% / 58%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year. Bullish paid every year · Neutral when irregular. Never tagged Bearish.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+99.7%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital rose +99.7%, consistent with a bonus issue or split — shareholders' ownership was not diluted. Bullish fell 1% or more (a buyback) · Caution when it rose 1% or more (new shares issued). Neutral when unchanged, or for a bonus/split.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	51.51% (-0.01 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 51.51% at Mar 2026 versus 51.52% a year earlier. Bearish fell more than 1 percentage point in a year · Neutral otherwise. Never tagged Bullish.
44	Foreign institutional holding	24.57% (+1.07 pts YoY)	Bullish	FIIs held 24.57% at Mar 2026, up from 23.50% a year before. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
45	Domestic institutional holding	13.06% (-1.00 pts YoY)	Neutral	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 13.06%, down from 14.06%. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
46	Number of shareholders	15.0 lakh (+4.0% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 14.4 lakh to 15.0 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest. How to read: Information only — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	40.1	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares. How to read: Information only. Any sizeable pledge is a risk to note.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	7/8	Bullish	Passed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, CFO > net profit, leverage fell, operating margin improved, asset turnover improved, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: ROA improved. Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49	Automated screen flags	4 strength(s) · 1 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Company is almost debt free; Company has delivered good profit growth of 68.8% CAGR over last 5 years; Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 30.3%; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 56.2%. Weaknesses: Promoters have pledged 40.1% of their holding. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.) How to read: Information only.
50	Fundamental summary	16 bullish · 0 bearish · 29 neutral · 4 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 09 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 25.6×, P/B 6.95×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 09 Apr 2026 – 09 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

04 May 2026 Ashok Leyland April 2026 sales rise 9% to 14,646 units — Total sales were 14,646 units in April 2026 versus 13,421 a year earlier; domestic sales rose 14% to 14,242 units. source
26 May 2026 Ashok Leyland gets 715-vehicle order from VRL Logistics — The company announced an order for 715 vehicles from VRL Logistics. source
28 May 2026 Ashok Leyland Q4 FY26 profit rises 13% to Rs 1,405 crore; Rs 2.50 interim dividend — The board approved FY26 results with revenue of Rs 44,007 crore (up 14%) and net profit of Rs 3,566 crore, and declared a second interim dividend of Rs 2.50 per share (record date June 3). source
29 May 2026 Ashok Leyland reappoints Dheeraj Hinduja as Executive Chairman — The board approved the reappointment of Dheeraj Hinduja as Executive Chairman, alongside other board decisions announced with the Q4 results. source
02 Jun 2026 Ashok Leyland May 2026 sales report — CMV360 reported May 2026 total CV sales of 13,288 units, up about 4% year on year, with LCV sales up 15% and M&HCV sales down 4%. source
01 Jul 2026 Ashok Leyland June 2026 sales rise 25% to 19,194 units — Total June sales rose 25% year on year to 19,194 units; truck volumes grew 44% while domestic bus sales fell 28%. source

What happened next (09 Jul 2026 → 09 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹155.19 to ₹145.06 by 09 Oct 2026 (-6.5%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.0% — underperforming by 0.5 points.
Highest ₹182.70 on 13 Aug 2026; lowest ₹143.65 on 09 Oct 2026.
S1 149.53: broken on a closing basis on 07 Oct 2026.
S2 143.46: held on a closing basis.
R1 160.89: cleared on a closing basis on 31 Jul 2026.
R2 165.95: cleared on a closing basis on 31 Jul 2026.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and crossed above on 03 Aug 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 14 Aug 2026): revenue ₹9,634 crore (+10.4% YoY), net profit ₹609 crore (+2.5% YoY), operating margin 10% vs 11% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).

Later news

13 Jul 2026 Arbitral tribunal awards Rs 222.65 crore to Ashok Leyland in DTC dispute — An arbitral tribunal awarded Rs 222.65 crore to the company in its dispute with Delhi Transport Corporation and rejected a Rs 136 crore counterclaim. source
14 Aug 2026 Ashok Leyland Q1 FY27 profit rises 3% to Rs 609 crore; revenue up 10% — Standalone net profit was Rs 609 crore on revenue of Rs 9,634 crore; EBITDA margin fell about 100 bps to 10.1% while volumes hit a Q1 record of 48,763 units. source
14 Aug 2026 Ashok Leyland approves Rs 825 crore investments in Optare and Hinduja Housing Finance — The board approved investments totalling Rs 825 crore in subsidiaries Optare and Hinduja Housing Finance. source
01 Sep 2026 Ashok Leyland August 2026 sales rise 38% to 21,038 units — Total August sales rose 38% to 21,038 units, with domestic M&HCV truck volumes up 60%. source
01 Oct 2026 Ashok Leyland September 2026 sales rise 30% to 21,105 units — Total CV sales were 21,105 units in September, up 30% year on year; M&HCV trucks rose 44% and exports rose 51%. source

Educational summary. On 09 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -6.5% against -6.0% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Ashok Leyland today.

Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 12 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

More case studies today

₹3,626.10close 09 Jul

Two-wheeler makerNSE: TVSMOTORData as of 09 Jul 2026

TVS Motor Company — 100-point case study

Technical

Fundamental

What happened next (3 months): +6.6% vs Nifty 50 -6.0%

Technical: positiveFundamental: positiveP/E 54.1×P/B 18.01×RSI 591Y +27.7%

₹1,381.20close 09 Jul

Alcoholic beveragesNSE: UNITDSPRData as of 09 Jul 2026

United Spirits — 100-point case study

Technical

Fundamental

What happened next (3 months): -1.1% vs Nifty 50 -6.0%

Technical: positiveFundamental: positiveP/E 54.7×P/B 11.22×RSI 571Y +0.8%

₹1,100.20close 09 Jul

Wealth & asset managementNSE: 360ONEData as of 09 Jul 2026

360 ONE WAM — 100-point case study

Technical

Fundamental

What happened next (3 months): -4.7% vs Nifty 50 -6.0%

Technical: positiveFundamental: negativeP/E 36.9×P/B 4.56×RSI 501Y -7.9%