FMCGHistorical case study · data as of 10 Jul 2026 · published 14 Oct 2026 (96 days later)
Dabur India — 100-point case study
How Dabur India looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 10 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Prices for Sep 2025–Mar 2026 come from equitypandit.com (matched Yahoo exactly where they overlap).
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 10 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.28%/day
Bullish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.28% a day — a short-term uptrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +3.8%
Bearish
The 100-session trend line was down (-0.15%/day) and the stock was +3.8% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -15.1%
Bearish
Compared with a year earlier the price was -15.1%. A weak year for the stock.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 443.56 / 30W 467.42
Bearish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 490.50→438.75; lows 414.60→417.45
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
13.8
Neutral
ADX at 13.8 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 22.1 / –DI 19.5
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
433.66 (+2.3%)
Bullish
Close of 443.50 was 2.3% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
441.94 (+0.4%)
Bullish
Close of 443.50 was 0.4% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
480.37 (-7.7%)
Bearish
Close of 443.50 was 7.7% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 441.21 / 21E 437.36
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 02 Jul 2026.
The 50-day average was 8.0% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
-0.0% in 20 sessions
Neutral
The 50-day average fell 0.0% over the past month — flattening.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
434 / 442 / 453 / 480
Bearish
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bearish (20 < 50 < 100 < 200).
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
443.02 (+0.1%)
Bullish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 443.02; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
54.4
Neutral
RSI at 54.4 was in the neutral 45–55 zone.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 2.47 / signal 0.24
Bullish
MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
3.76 → 2.23
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.73 (bands 412.23–455.10)
Neutral
%B of 0.73 — inside the bands, upper half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 9.9% (40th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 40th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹10.18 (2.3% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹10.18, or 2.3% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
27.6% vs 1Y 23.7%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 27.6%, close to the one-year level of 23.7%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
416.94–457.99
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
0.92
Neutral
A beta of 0.92 means the stock tended to move roughly in line with the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.77× / 5-day 0.94×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.77× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.94× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.60
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 1.60× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹97 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
441.98 / 417.69 / 403.35
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 441.98, 0.3% below the close, then 417.69, 403.35.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
455.88 / 465.00 / 490.50
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 455.88, 2.8% above the close, then 465.00, 490.50.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 440.72 | R1 458.78 | S1 425.43
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 440.72; the close was above it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 434 | 38.2% 453 | 50.0% 469 | 61.8% 484
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month fall from 534.00 to 403.35, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 434.18.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 577.00 / L 403.35
Neutral
The close was 23.1% below the 52-week high and 10.0% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
none
Neutral
No unfilled price gaps in the last six months.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 417.45–456.00
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 417.45–456.00.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Inside bar
Neutral
On 10 Jul the candle opened 444.55, ranged 441.05–447.00 and closed 443.50: Inside bar — range contraction. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 444.56–446.93; Tenkan 438.80 / Kijun 435.30
Bearish
Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -0.6% / 3M +2.9%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 2.9 points over three months and underperformed by 0.6 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M -7.7%
Bearish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 7.7 points behind the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
15 bullish · 10 bearish · 24 neutral · 0 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 441.98, resistance 455.88. This is a description of the chart on 10 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 10 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 10 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
42.1×
Neutral
At ₹443.50 the market valued the company at about ₹78,654 crore, or 42.1× the ₹1,869 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
6.89×
Neutral
Market cap was 6.89× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹11,419 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
5.96×
Neutral
The company was valued at 5.96× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹13,193 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
32.6×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹1,287 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 32.6× trailing operating profit of ₹2,450 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
2.4%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹2.4 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
13.19
Bearish
P/E of 42.1 divided by 3-year profit growth of 3.2% a year gives a PEG of 13.19. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
1.80%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹8 a share, a 1.80% yield on the ₹443.50 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹78,654 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.79 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹123.56 vs ₹443.50
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹123.56; the price was 259% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+5.0%
Neutral
Revenue for FY26 was ₹13,193 crore, +5.0% versus FY25.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
1 strength(s) · 1 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 70.1%. Weaknesses: The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 6.65% over past five years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
10 bullish · 5 bearish · 34 neutral · 0 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 10 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 42.1×, P/B 6.89×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 10 Apr 2026 – 10 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
07 May 2026Dabur Q4FY26: Cons PAT Rises 15% YoY; ₹5.50 Dividend Announced — Dabur reported Q4 FY26 revenue from operations of ₹3,038 crore, up 7.3% year on year, with India FMCG growing 9.5%. The board recommended a final dividend of ₹5.50 per share for FY26. source
08 May 2026Dabur India stock surges 4% after Q4 results — Shares rose about 3.7% to ₹487.60 on BSE after Q4 FY26 results, and management raised its India revenue growth guidance to low double digits. Brokerage views were mixed, ranging from Buy to Neutral. source
04 Jun 2026Dabur India promoters hold 1.175 billion shares in FY26 — Promoters and persons acting in concert held 1,175,004,985 equity shares as of 31 March 2026, and disclosed no encumbrance of shares during FY26. source
23 Jun 2026Dabur India Limited sets July 17 record date for dividend — Dabur fixed 17 July 2026 as the record date for the FY26 final dividend, subject to shareholder approval. The 51st AGM is scheduled for 6 August 2026 by video conference. source
03 Jul 2026Dabur India expects double-digit Q1 revenue and profit growth — In its Q1 FY27 business update, Dabur said it expects double-digit consolidated revenue and profit growth, with rural demand outpacing urban and international business up in the high teens in rupee terms. source
What happened next (10 Jul 2026 → 12 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹443.50 to ₹374.40 by 12 Oct 2026 (-15.6%) while the Nifty 50 moved -7.6% — underperforming by 8.0 points.
Highest ₹442.75 on 13 Jul 2026; lowest ₹368.05 on 09 Sep 2026.
S1 441.98: broken on a closing basis on 13 Jul 2026.
S2 417.69: broken on a closing basis on 04 Aug 2026.
R1 455.88: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 465.00: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 29 Jul 2026): revenue ₹3,764 crore (+10.5% YoY), net profit ₹586 crore (+15.4% YoY), operating margin 20% vs 20% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
30 Jul 2026Dabur India Share Price Falls Over 2% After Q1 FY27 Earnings Results — Dabur reported Q1 FY27 results on 29 July 2026, with net profit of ₹586.16 crore, up 15.3% year on year, and total income up 11%. The stock traded about 2% lower the next day. source
04 Aug 2026FSSAI bars Dabur from selling food products with misleading '100%' claims — The food regulator FSSAI ordered Dabur to stop selling food products such as honey, cow ghee, edible oils and coconut water carrying '100%' claims, and asked for an action-taken report within 15 days. source
07 Aug 2026Delhi HC stays FSSAI order restricting Dabur's use of '100%' product claims — The Delhi High Court stayed the FSSAI order that had restricted Dabur from selling food products with '100%' claims. source
22 Sep 2026Dabur to consider September-quarter results and interim dividend on November 4 — Dabur informed the exchanges that its board will meet on 4 November 2026 to consider Q2 FY27 results and an interim dividend for FY27. source
25 Sep 2026Dabur gets NCLT's nod to absorb Ayurvedic hair oil brand Sesa Care — The NCLT New Delhi bench approved the amalgamation of Sesa Care Private Limited into Dabur India, which takes effect after statutory filings and the scheme's other conditions are met. source
06 Oct 2026Dabur India share price gains over 2% after Q2 FY27 performance update — Dabur said it expects double-digit revenue and PAT growth for the September 2026 quarter, while inflation and geopolitical tensions weighed on operating margins. The stock traded about 2.4% higher intraday. source
Educational summary. On 10 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -15.6% against -7.6% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Dabur India today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 14 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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