Online beauty & fashion retailHistorical case study · data as of 10 Jul 2026 · published 14 Oct 2026 (96 days later)
FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) — 100-point case study
How FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 10 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Screener only served an outdated copy for this company, so consolidated financial statements come from Marketsmojo and shareholding from Dhan/Upstox, mapped to Screener-style rows. FY26 ratios and growth boxes are n/a.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 10 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.85%/day
Bullish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.85% a day — a short-term uptrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +29.9%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.18%/day) and the stock was +29.9% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +52.0%
Bullish
Compared with a year earlier the price was +52.0%. A strong positive year.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 286.46 / 30W 265.73
Bullish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 279.25→285.60; lows 259.05→257.80
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a higher high but a lower low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
44.7
Bullish
ADX at 44.7 shows a strong trend in force. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 34.0 / –DI 6.1
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
303.08 (+8.9%)
Bullish
Close of 330.10 was 8.9% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
282.06 (+17.0%)
Bullish
Close of 330.10 was 17.0% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
261.81 (+26.1%)
Bullish
Close of 330.10 was 26.1% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 316.44 / 21E 303.87
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 15 Jun 2026.
The 50-day average was 7.7% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+7.0% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 7.0% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
303 / 282 / 269 / 262
Bullish
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bullish (20 > 50 > 100 > 200).
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
317.62 (+3.9%)
Bullish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 317.62; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
77.9
Caution
RSI at 77.9 was overbought (≥70) — strong momentum but stretched.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 12.99 / signal 11.33
Bullish
MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
1.65 → 1.66
Bullish
The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.91 (bands 270.03–336.14)
Neutral
%B of 0.91 — inside the bands, upper half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 21.8% (80th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 80th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹8.37 (2.5% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹8.37, or 2.5% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
29.7% vs 1Y 28.8%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 29.7%, close to the one-year level of 28.8%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
287.83–321.67
Bullish
The close was above the upper channel — a strong trending push.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.07
Neutral
A beta of 1.07 means the stock tended to move roughly in line with the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.99× / 5-day 0.88×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.99× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.88× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 2.21
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 2.21× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹322 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
300.15 / 257.82 / 249.05
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 300.15, 10.0% below the close, then 257.82, 249.05.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
none above
Neutral
No swing-high resistance above within a year — the stock was near its highs.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 322.22 | R1 338.83 | S1 313.48
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 322.22; the close was above it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 308 | 38.2% 293 | 50.0% 281 | 61.8% 270
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month rise from 232.00 to 330.95, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 307.60.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 330.95 / L 197.62
Bullish
The close was 0.3% below the 52-week high and 67.0% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
none
Neutral
No unfilled price gaps in the last six months.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
rising channel
Bullish
Rule-based pattern scan: rising channel — successive higher highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 259.35–325.90
Bullish
The close was breakout above the prior 20-day range of 259.35–325.90 — a range break.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary green candle
Neutral
On 10 Jul the candle opened 328.00, ranged 324.65–330.95 and closed 330.10: Ordinary green candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 258.83–272.16; Tenkan 316.23 / Kijun 294.38
Bullish
Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M +21.5% / 3M +29.1%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 29.1 points over three months and outperformed by 21.5 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M +31.6%
Bullish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 31.6 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
30 bullish · 0 bearish · 15 neutral · 4 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 300.15, resistance n/a. This is a description of the chart on 10 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 10 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 10 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
463.7×
Neutral
At ₹330.10 the market valued the company at about ₹94,563 crore, or 463.7× the ₹204 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
67.47×
Neutral
Market cap was 67.47× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹1,402 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
9.44×
Neutral
The company was valued at 9.44× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹10,022 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
126.7×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹747 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 126.7× trailing operating profit of ₹752 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
0.2%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹0.2 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
4.47
Bearish
P/E of 463.7 divided by 3-year profit growth of 103.7% a year gives a PEG of 4.47. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
n/a
Neutral
Dividend history in our data window was not available.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹94,563 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.95 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹8.85 vs ₹330.10
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹8.85; the price was 3629% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+26.1%
Bullish
Revenue for FY26 was ₹10,022 crore, +26.1% versus FY25.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
0 strength(s) · 0 weakness(es)
Neutral
No strengths flagged. No weaknesses flagged. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
15 bullish · 2 bearish · 32 neutral · 0 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 10 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 463.7×, P/B 67.47×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 10 Apr 2026 – 10 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
21 May 2026Nykaa Q4 FY26 results: revenue up 28%, FY26 revenue crosses $1 billion — FSN E-Commerce Ventures reported Q4 FY26 consolidated revenue of Rs 2,648 crore, up 28% year on year, and net profit of about Rs 79 crore. Full-year FY26 profit rose 183% to about Rs 204 crore. source
12 Jun 2026Nykaa shares rise over 5% amid market rally after FY26 results — Nykaa shares gained about 5.5% on June 12, 2026, attributed to a broad market rally and post-results re-rating. The report cites FY26 revenue of Rs 10,022 crore and fashion segment breakeven in Q4 FY26. source
18 Jun 2026Nykaa hits 52-week high after Investor Day FY30 roadmap — Shares rose as much as 7.1% to a 52-week high after the company laid out its FY30 strategy at its Annual Investor Day, targeting over $5 billion GMV in beauty and lifestyle by FY30. The stock closed about 6% higher. source
06 Jul 2026Nykaa Q1 FY27 business update projects about 30% revenue growth — Nykaa said it expects roughly 30% year-on-year consolidated revenue growth for Q1 FY27, led by a recovery in its fashion business. Shares rose over 3% to a 52-week high on BSE. source
What happened next (10 Jul 2026 → 13 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹330.10 to ₹338.00 by 13 Oct 2026 (+2.4%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.1% — outperforming by 8.5 points.
Highest ₹349.55 on 31 Aug 2026; lowest ₹316.00 on 01 Oct 2026.
S1 300.15: held on a closing basis.
S2 257.82: held on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 04 Aug 2026): revenue ₹2,782 crore (+29.1% YoY), net profit ₹80 crore (+226.0% YoY), operating margin 8% vs 7% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
04 Aug 2026Nykaa Q1 FY27: net profit more than triples to about Rs 80 crore, revenue up 29% — For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, consolidated revenue rose 29.1% to Rs 2,782 crore and net profit to Rs 79.7 crore; EBITDA grew 67.8% to Rs 236 crore. GMV rose 34% to Rs 5,590 crore. source
05 Aug 2026Nykaa shares touch 52-week high after Q1 FY27 earnings, then pare gains — Shares hit a 52-week high of Rs 348 on August 5, 2026 following the Q1 results before paring gains. Brokerages including HSBC, Nomura and Jefferies commented on growth and margin expansion. source
05 Sep 2026Nykaa completes purchase of additional 24.2% stake in Earth Rhythm — FSN E-Commerce Ventures completed the acquisition of an additional 24.2% stake in its subsidiary Earth Rhythm Private Limited, following board approval on May 21, 2026. source
05 Oct 2026Nykaa shares rise 6% on Q2 FY27 business update — Shares rose as much as 6.1% on BSE after the company said it expects consolidated GMV growth in the high twenties and revenue growth in the late twenties for Q2 FY27. source
Educational summary. On 10 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved +2.4% against -6.1% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 14 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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