Fertilisers (PSU)Historical case study · data as of 10 Jul 2026 · published 14 Oct 2026 (96 days later)
Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore — 100-point case study
How Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 10 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Screener's page was out of date, so FY26 and recent quarterly and shareholding figures come from tapetide.com (matches Screener on overlapping years; Mar 2026 quarter checked against the NSE filing). These are effectively standalone figures.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 10 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope -0.56%/day
Bearish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.56% a day — a short-term downtrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +4.6%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.18%/day) and the stock was +4.6% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -7.8%
Neutral
Compared with a year earlier the price was -7.8%. Little net progress over twelve months.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 882.51 / 30W 843.95
Neutral
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 938.40→1,058.60; lows 852.00→851.00
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a higher high but a lower low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
13.1
Neutral
ADX at 13.1 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 22.1 / –DI 24.4
Bearish
–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
893.83 (-4.3%)
Bearish
Close of 855.55 was 4.3% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
888.52 (-3.7%)
Bearish
Close of 855.55 was 3.7% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
862.08 (-0.8%)
Bearish
Close of 855.55 was 0.8% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 866.44 / 21E 879.19
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 29 Jun 2026.
The 50-day average was 3.1% above the 200-day. The most recent signal was a golden cross on 11 Jun 2026.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+1.9% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 1.9% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
894 / 889 / 848 / 862
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
870.87 (-1.8%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 870.87; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
42.6
Bearish
RSI at 42.6 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -9.84 / signal -4.10
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-4.68 → -5.73
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.25 (bands 815.98–971.68)
Neutral
%B of 0.25 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 17.4% (62nd pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 62nd percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹30.34 (3.5% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹30.34, or 3.5% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
44.3% vs 1Y 40.4%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 44.3%, close to the one-year level of 40.4%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
821.60–935.69
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.21
Neutral
A beta of 1.21 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.10× / 5-day 0.12×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.10× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.12× — lighter than usual participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 3.80
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 3.80× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price fell — volume diverged from price.
About ₹98 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
771.97 / 744.77 / 652.10
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 771.97, 10.8% below the close, then 744.77, 652.10.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
891.84 / 928.34 / 996.60
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 891.84, 4.2% above the close, then 928.34, 996.60.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 864.35 | R1 888.20 | S1 831.70
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 864.35; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 963 | 38.2% 903 | 50.0% 855 | 61.8% 807
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month rise from 652.10 to 1,058.60, the close was nearest the 50.0% retracement at 855.35.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 1,058.60 / L 652.10
Neutral
The close was 19.2% below the 52-week high and 31.2% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
none
Neutral
No unfilled price gaps in the last six months.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
pullback inside a larger uptrend
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: pullback inside a larger uptrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 840.50–1,058.60
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 840.50–1,058.60.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Shooting-star-type candle
Bearish
On 10 Jul the candle opened 850.20, ranged 850.20–869.80 and closed 855.55: Shooting-star-type candle — sellers rejected higher prices. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 844.85–893.21; Tenkan 868.75 / Kijun 949.55
Neutral
Price was inside the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — an undecided Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -9.4% / 3M +3.7%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 3.7 points over three months and underperformed by 9.4 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M +2.1%
Bullish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 2.1 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
7 bullish · 14 bearish · 25 neutral · 3 caution
Bearish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 771.97, resistance 891.84. This is a description of the chart on 10 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 10 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 10 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
-1,384.0×
Neutral
At ₹855.55 the market valued the company at about ₹55,360 crore, or -1384.0× the ₹-40 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
41.01×
Neutral
Market cap was 41.01× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹1,350 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
9.67×
Neutral
The company was valued at 9.67× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹5,724 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
860.1×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹3,985 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 860.1× trailing operating profit of ₹69 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
-0.1%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹-0.1 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
n/m
Neutral
PEG is not meaningful because 3-year profit growth was not available. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2023, Mar 2026, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
0.05%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹0.39 a share, a 0.05% yield on the ₹855.55 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹55,360 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.55 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
n/m
Neutral
Not meaningful with negative earnings or book value.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+41.3%
Bullish
Revenue for FY26 was ₹5,724 crore, +41.3% versus FY25.
Revenue compounded at -2.6% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2023, Mar 2026, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15
Profit CAGR (3 years)
n/a
Neutral
Not available. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2023, Mar 2026, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
11.9%
Neutral
Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 11.9% a year. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2023, Mar 2026, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17
EPS growth FY26 (reported)
-195.3%
Bearish
Reported EPS went from ₹0.64 to ₹-0.61 (-195.3%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
3 strength(s) · 4 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company is expected to give good quarter; Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 27.4%; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 40.2%. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 42.4 times its book value; Company has low interest coverage ratio; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 7.90% over past five years; Earnings include an other income of Rs.219 Cr. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
3 bullish · 14 bearish · 32 neutral · 0 caution
Bearish
On the numbers published by 10 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned negative. Valuation: P/E -1384.0×, P/B 41.01×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 10 Apr 2026 – 10 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
27 Apr 2026FACT gets government approval for DAP manufacturing — The government approved di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) manufacturing at FACT's existing Udyogamandal facility in Kochi under the Nutrient Based Subsidy scheme; the approval was communicated on 24 April 2026. source
06 May 2026Dr. Aruna Kamineni steps down as Independent Director — Dr. Aruna Kamineni retired as Non-Official Independent Director at the close of 4 May 2026 after completing her one-year term, also leaving the Audit and Nomination & Remuneration Committees. source
15 May 2026FACT commences DAP production at Udyogamandal plant — FACT began producing DAP at its Udyogamandal plant from 15 May 2026 after receiving government permission in April 2026. source
30 May 2026FACT Q4 FY26 results: revenue rises, profit falls — For the March 2026 quarter (board meeting 29 May 2026) standalone revenue was about Rs 1,484 crore versus Rs 1,053 crore a year earlier, while net profit fell to about Rs 3.2 crore from Rs 71 crore; FY26 ended with a net loss of about Rs 40 crore. source
30 May 2026FACT appoints Pradeepkumar C as Chief Financial Officer — The board approved the appointment of Pradeepkumar C, a Cost and Management Accountant who was previously FACT's CFO in 2019, as CFO effective 29 May 2026. source
02 Jun 2026Director (Technical) K. Jayachandran retires — Dr. K. Jayachandran ceased to be Director (Technical) on 31 May 2026 on completion of his tenure (superannuation), disclosed under SEBI LODR Regulation 30. source
What happened next (10 Jul 2026 → 12 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹855.55 to ₹731.20 by 12 Oct 2026 (-14.5%) while the Nifty 50 moved -7.6% — underperforming by 6.9 points.
Highest ₹920.00 on 25 Aug 2026; lowest ₹715.10 on 08 Oct 2026.
S1 771.97: broken on a closing basis on 15 Sep 2026.
S2 744.77: broken on a closing basis on 01 Oct 2026.
R1 891.84: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 928.34: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and crossed above on 25 Aug 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 14 Aug 2026): revenue ₹1,253 crore (+20.1% YoY), net profit ₹-62 crore (-1650.0% YoY), operating margin -2% vs 2% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
28 Jul 2026FACT appoints Sajo K.F. as Director (Technical) — The Department of Fertilizers appointed Sajo K.F., a former Chief General Manager, as Director (Technical) of FACT for a term up to 31 May 2028. source
14 Aug 2026FACT reports Q1 FY27 net loss — For the June 2026 quarter FACT reported a net loss of about Rs 62 crore against a small profit a year earlier, with revenue higher year on year (about Rs 1,253 crore vs Rs 1,043 crore) and an operating (EBITDA) loss. source
25 Aug 2026FACT shares rise about 11.7% in a session — FACT shares rose about 11.7% to around Rs 876 on 25 August 2026 on heavy volume; the report did not identify a company-specific catalyst. A Rs 15.21 crore NSE block trade was also reported that day. source
10 Sep 2026FACT faces higher input costs as sulphur prices rise — A news headline on 10 September 2026 reported that FACT faces higher input costs as sulphur prices rose sharply. source
Educational summary. On 10 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned negative. Over the next three months the stock moved -14.5% against -7.6% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 14 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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Fertilisers & crop protectionNSE: COROMANDELData as of 10 Jul 2026