Private-sector bankHistorical case study · data as of 10 Jul 2026 · published 14 Oct 2026 (96 days later)
Federal Bank — 100-point case study
How Federal Bank looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 10 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Fundamentals use Screener's standalone page (the consolidated page was out of date). Bank metrics come from the bank's results coverage; Q4 FY26 headline NIM of 3.74% includes one-offs (about 3.20% without).
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 10 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.21%/day
Bullish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.21% a day — a short-term uptrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +16.0%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.16%/day) and the stock was +16.0% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +56.3%
Bullish
Compared with a year earlier the price was +56.3%. A strong positive year.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 307.98 / 30W 288.43
Bullish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 298.45→334.30; lows 277.10→318.20
Bullish
The two most recent swing points showed higher swing highs and higher swing lows — classic uptrend structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
33.9
Bullish
ADX at 33.9 shows a strong trend in force. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 17.0 / –DI 11.4
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
325.15 (+1.4%)
Bullish
Close of 329.85 was 1.4% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
305.57 (+7.9%)
Bullish
Close of 329.85 was 7.9% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
269.32 (+22.5%)
Bullish
Close of 329.85 was 22.5% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 328.12 / 21E 322.66
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 26 May 2026.
The 50-day average was 13.5% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+5.7% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 5.7% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
325 / 306 / 294 / 269
Bullish
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bullish (20 > 50 > 100 > 200).
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
329.56 (+0.1%)
Bullish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 329.56; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
64.5
Bullish
RSI at 64.5 showed positive momentum without being overbought.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 6.94 / signal 7.85
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-0.12 → -0.91
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.74 (bands 315.54–334.75)
Neutral
%B of 0.74 — inside the bands, upper half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 5.9% (10th pct of 6M)
Caution
Band width was at the 10th percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown).
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹6.44 (2.0% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹6.44, or 2.0% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
18.4% vs 1Y 24.2%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 18.4%, below the one-year level of 24.2%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
310.60–335.75
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
0.93
Neutral
A beta of 0.93 means the stock tended to move roughly in line with the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.75× / 5-day 0.59×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.75× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.59× — lighter than usual participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.38
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 1.38× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹235 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
318.20 / 280.08 / 256.21
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 318.20, 3.7% below the close, then 280.08, 256.21.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
334.30
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 334.30, 1.3% above the close.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 329.05 | R1 335.10 | S1 323.80
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 329.05; the close was above it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 313 | 38.2% 299 | 50.0% 288 | 61.8% 277
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month rise from 242.30 to 334.30, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 312.59.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 334.30 / L 185.11
Bullish
The close was 1.3% below the 52-week high and 78.2% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
1 open; latest gap-up 08 Apr at 276.90
Neutral
There was 1 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 08 Apr 2026, left an open level at 276.90 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
rising channel
Bullish
Rule-based pattern scan: rising channel — successive higher highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 307.05–334.30
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 307.05–334.30.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Doji
Neutral
On 10 Jul the candle opened 330.30, ranged 327.85–332.50 and closed 329.85: Doji — indecision. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 278.08–291.46; Tenkan 328.65 / Kijun 314.98
Bullish
Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M +1.8% / 3M +15.1%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 15.1 points over three months and outperformed by 1.8 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty Bank
3M +11.8%
Bullish
Against its sector index (Nifty Bank) the stock was 11.8 points ahead over three months.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
27 bullish · 3 bearish · 18 neutral · 1 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 318.20, resistance 334.30. This is a description of the chart on 10 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 10 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 10 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
19.8×
Neutral
At ₹329.85 the market valued the company at about ₹81,503 crore, or 19.8× the ₹4,117 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
2.11×
Neutral
Market cap was 2.11× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹38,705 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Revenue (interest earned)
2.94×
Neutral
Market cap was 2.94× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹27,696 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
Profit / Book (earnings power)
10.6%
Neutral
Trailing profit was 10.6% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 2.11× for.
How to read: Information only.
5
Earnings yield
5.1%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹5.1 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
1.80
Neutral
P/E of 19.8 divided by 3-year profit growth of 11.0% a year gives a PEG of 1.80. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
0.36%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹1.2 a share, a 0.36% yield on the ₹329.85 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹81,503 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.82 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹242.33 vs ₹329.85
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹242.33; the price was 36% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+5.0%
Neutral
Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹27,695 crore, +5.0% versus FY25.
NIM — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was 3.74% in Jan–Mar 2026 (as reported). Above ~3.5% is strong for an Indian bank.
Bullish 3.5% or more · Bearish below 3.0% · Neutral 3.0–3.5%.
19
Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)
+33.4%
Bullish
Core interest income after interest expense was ₹3,173 crore, +33.4% year on year (standalone, as reported).
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
0 strength(s) · 5 weakness(es)
Neutral
No strengths flagged. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; Company has a low return on equity of 12.8% over last 3 years; Contingent liabilities of Rs.2,99,409 Cr; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost; Dividend payout has been low at 7.44% of profits over last 3 years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
14 bullish · 0 bearish · 35 neutral · 0 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 10 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 19.8×, P/B 2.11×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 10 Apr 2026 – 10 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
29 Apr 2026Federal Bank Q4 FY26 net profit rises 22% to Rs 1,259 crore — Federal Bank reported standalone Q4 FY26 net profit of Rs 1,259.1 crore, up about 22% year on year, with gross NPA at 1.62% and net NPA at 0.20%. The board recommended a final dividend of Rs 1.20 per share. source
30 Apr 2026Federal Bank to acquire Standard Chartered India retail credit card portfolio — Federal Bank's board approved acquiring a select retail credit card receivables portfolio from Standard Chartered Bank, India, and the agreement was signed on May 4, 2026. source
08 May 2026RBI approves Kotak Mahindra Bank acquiring up to 9.99% of Federal Bank — Federal Bank disclosed that the Reserve Bank of India approved Kotak Mahindra Bank acquiring up to 9.99% of its share capital or voting rights, subject to applicable regulations. source
16 May 2026Federal Bank gets RBI nod for new joint statutory auditors for FY27 — The RBI approved Price Waterhouse LLP and K S Aiyar & Co as Federal Bank's joint statutory auditors for FY 2026-27, subject to shareholder approval at the AGM. source
25 May 2026Federal Bank to attend BofA India Conference 2026 — Federal Bank informed exchanges it would meet analysts and investors at the BofA India Conference in Mumbai on June 3, 2026, with no formal presentation planned. source
08 Jun 2026IFC-linked entities cut Federal Bank stake to 5.28% — Disclosures showed entities linked to the International Finance Corporation sold about 4.75 crore Federal Bank shares between November 2024 and June 5, 2026, reducing their combined stake from 7.32% to 5.28%. source
What happened next (10 Jul 2026 → 13 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹329.85 to ₹329.50 by 13 Oct 2026 (-0.1%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.1% — outperforming by 6.0 points.
Highest ₹371.70 on 03 Aug 2026; lowest ₹313.75 on 01 Oct 2026.
S1 318.20: broken on a closing basis on 30 Sep 2026.
S2 280.08: held on a closing basis.
R1 334.30: cleared on a closing basis on 17 Jul 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
17 Jul 2026Federal Bank Q1 FY27 net profit up 37% to Rs 1,177 crore — Federal Bank reported Q1 FY27 standalone net profit of Rs 1,176.93 crore, up 36.6% year on year, with NII up 26% and net NPA at 0.18%. The board also approved raising up to Rs 10,000 crore via debt instruments. source
21 Aug 2026Federal Bank board approves up to $500 million GIFT City bond issue — Federal Bank's board approved raising up to $500 million through foreign currency bonds via its GIFT City IFSC Banking Unit, in one or more tranches with tenor up to five years. source
21 Aug 2026Federal Bank shareholders approve FY26 accounts and dividend at 95th AGM — At its 95th AGM, held online, shareholders approved all resolutions including the FY26 financial statements and a final dividend of Rs 1.20 per share. source
25 Aug 2026Federal Bank shares fall about 4% on Jana Small Finance Bank deal reports — Federal Bank shares fell nearly 4% after media reports said the lender was in advanced talks to acquire a controlling stake in Jana Small Finance Bank; no deal had been formally announced at the time. source
28 Sep 2026Federal Bank appoints Virat Sunil Diwanji as Executive Director — Federal Bank appointed Virat Sunil Diwanji, formerly of Kotak Mahindra Group, as Executive Director for three years effective October 12, 2026, following RBI approval. source
Educational summary. On 10 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -0.1% against -6.1% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Federal Bank today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 14 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50, Nifty Bank via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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