Private-sector bankHistorical case study · data as of 14 Jul 2026 · published 17 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
IndusInd Bank — 100-point case study
How IndusInd Bank looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 14 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Q4 FY25 was a loss, so year-on-year profit growth for Q4 FY26 is not meaningful. Promoters had pledged a large share of their holding, as disclosed on Screener.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 14 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.59%/day
Bullish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.59% a day — a short-term uptrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +20.0%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.10%/day) and the stock was +20.0% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +15.0%
Bullish
Compared with a year earlier the price was +15.0%. A strong positive year.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 938.70 / 30W 899.93
Bullish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 953.50→1,038.00; lows 881.00→900.15
Bullish
The two most recent swing points showed higher swing highs and higher swing lows — classic uptrend structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
31.8
Bullish
ADX at 31.8 shows a strong trend in force. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 33.2 / –DI 16.1
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
959.42 (+4.0%)
Bullish
Close of 997.35 was 4.0% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
930.44 (+7.2%)
Bullish
Close of 997.35 was 7.2% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
866.41 (+15.1%)
Bullish
Close of 997.35 was 15.1% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 993.67 / 21E 966.84
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 12 Jun 2026.
The 50-day average was 7.4% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+5.2% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 5.2% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
959 / 930 / 898 / 866
Bullish
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bullish (20 > 50 > 100 > 200).
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
993.45 (+0.4%)
Bullish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 993.45; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
60.6
Bullish
RSI at 60.6 showed positive momentum without being overbought.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 26.54 / signal 21.38
Bullish
MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
8.58 → 5.16
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.73 (bands 877.93–1,040.91)
Neutral
%B of 0.73 — inside the bands, upper half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 17.0% (79th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 79th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹25.50 (2.6% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹25.50, or 2.6% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
30.4% vs 1Y 28.6%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 30.4%, close to the one-year level of 28.6%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
917.33–1,019.82
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.45
Neutral
A beta of 1.45 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.31× / 5-day 0.68×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.31× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.68× — lighter than usual participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.41
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 1.41× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹243 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
902.61 / 875.77 / 833.57
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 902.61, 10.5% below the close, then 875.77, 833.57.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
1,038.00
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 1,038.00, 4.1% above the close.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 987.47 | R1 1,047.88 | S1 936.93
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 987.47; the close was above it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 970 | 38.2% 928 | 50.0% 894 | 61.8% 860
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month rise from 750.50 to 1,038.00, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 970.15.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 1,038.00 / L 710.60
Bullish
The close was 3.9% below the 52-week high and 40.4% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
2 open; latest gap-up 15 Apr at 822.20
Neutral
There were 2 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 15 Apr 2026, left an open level at 822.20 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
rising channel
Bullish
Rule-based pattern scan: rising channel — successive higher highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 900.15–1,038.00
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 900.15–1,038.00.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary red candle
Neutral
On 14 Jul the candle opened 1,008.90, ranged 994.10–1,009.00 and closed 997.35: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 854.20–913.09; Tenkan 984.80 / Kijun 959.50
Bullish
Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M +6.9% / 3M +20.0%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 20.0 points over three months and outperformed by 6.9 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty Bank
3M +17.3%
Bullish
Against its sector index (Nifty Bank) the stock was 17.3 points ahead over three months.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
29 bullish · 2 bearish · 18 neutral · 0 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 902.61, resistance 1,038.00. This is a description of the chart on 14 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 14 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 14 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
87.4×
Neutral
At ₹997.35 the market valued the company at about ₹77,708 crore, or 87.4× the ₹889 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
1.18×
Neutral
Market cap was 1.18× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹65,740 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Revenue (interest earned)
1.68×
Neutral
Market cap was 1.68× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹46,251 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
Profit / Book (earnings power)
1.4%
Neutral
Trailing profit was 1.4% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 1.18× for.
How to read: Information only.
5
Earnings yield
1.1%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹1.1 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
n/m
Neutral
PEG is not meaningful because 3-year profit growth was -50.8%.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
0.15%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹1.5 a share, a 0.15% yield on the ₹997.35 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹77,708 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.78 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹465.41 vs ₹997.35
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹465.41; the price was 114% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
-5.0%
Bearish
Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹46,251 crore, -5.0% versus FY25.
NIM — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was 3.39% in Jan–Mar 2026 (as reported). Above ~3.5% is strong for an Indian bank.
Bullish 3.5% or more · Bearish below 3.0% · Neutral 3.0–3.5%.
19
Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)
+43.4%
Bullish
Core interest income after interest expense was ₹4,371 crore, +43.4% year on year (standalone, as reported).
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
1 strength(s) · 7 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Stock is trading at 1.04 times its book value. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 9.79% over past five years; Promoter holding is low: 15.8%; Company has a low return on equity of 6.60% over last 3 years; Contingent liabilities of Rs.12,08,438 Cr; Promoters have pledged 42.8% of their holding; Company has been maintaining a low dividend payout of 9.15% over last 3 years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
3 bullish · 9 bearish · 37 neutral · 0 caution
Bearish
On the numbers published by 14 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned negative. Valuation: P/E 87.4×, P/B 1.18×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 14 Apr 2026 – 14 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
24 Apr 2026IndusInd Bank reports Q4 FY26 net profit of Rs 594 crore — IndusInd Bank reported a Q4 FY26 net profit of Rs 594 crore against a net loss of Rs 2,329 crore a year earlier; NII was Rs 4,371 crore and gross NPA 3.43%. source
24 Apr 2026IndusInd Bank Q4 FY26 press release: NIM 3.39%, CRAR 17.48% — The bank's results press release reported NIM of 3.39%, CASA ratio of 31.24%, CRAR of 17.48%, advances of Rs 3,15,871 crore and deposits of Rs 3,99,931 crore as of 31 March 2026. source
25 May 2026IndusInd Bank to meet analysts and investors at Citi India Conference on June 4 — The bank disclosed an in-person meeting with analysts and institutional investors in Mumbai on 4 June 2026 as part of the Citi India Conference 2026. source
09 Jul 2026IndusInd Bank board to consider Q1 FY27 results and fundraising on July 22 — The board scheduled a 22 July 2026 meeting to approve Q1 FY27 results, fix the 32nd AGM date and consider raising funds via long-term bonds and equity instruments such as QIPs, ADRs and GDRs. source
What happened next (14 Jul 2026 → 15 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹997.35 to ₹885.40 by 15 Oct 2026 (-11.2%) while the Nifty 50 moved -4.4% — underperforming by 6.8 points.
Highest ₹1,077.85 on 22 Jul 2026; lowest ₹845.70 on 13 Oct 2026.
S1 902.61: broken on a closing basis on 29 Sep 2026.
S2 875.77: broken on a closing basis on 07 Oct 2026.
R1 1,038.00: cleared on a closing basis on 21 Jul 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 24 Sep 2026.
22 Jul 2026IndusInd Bank Q1 FY27 profit rises 72% YoY to Rs 1,037 crore — Consolidated net profit was Rs 1,037 crore versus Rs 604 crore a year earlier; NII was Rs 4,685 crore, gross NPA eased to 3.25% and net NPA to 0.95%. source
23 Jul 2026IndusInd Bank shares fall in early trade after Q1 FY27 results — The stock traded about 4.3% lower in early trade on 23 July 2026, with an intraday low of Rs 1,015.10 against the previous close of Rs 1,069.30. source
05 Aug 2026RBI approves two new executive directors at IndusInd Bank — The RBI approved the appointment of Ganesh Sankaran and Jagdeep Mallareddy as whole-time Executive Directors for three years, effective 4 August 2026. source
30 Sep 2026IndusInd Bank to announce Q2 FY27 results on October 23 — The board will meet on 23 October 2026 to approve results for the quarter and half-year ended 30 September 2026; the trading window is closed from 1 to 25 October. source
06 Oct 2026IndusInd Bank Q2 FY27 business update: advances Rs 3.62 lakh crore — The quarterly update released on 5 October reported net advances of Rs 3,62,393 crore and deposits of Rs 4,29,038 crore as of 30 September 2026, with CASA ratio at 28.0% versus 30.7% a year earlier. source
Educational summary. On 14 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned negative. Over the next three months the stock moved -11.2% against -4.4% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold IndusInd Bank today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 17 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50, Nifty Bank via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction