Public-sector bankHistorical case study · data as of 14 Jul 2026 · published 17 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Indian Overseas Bank — 100-point case study
How Indian Overseas Bank looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 14 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Bank metrics are the bank's standalone figures from its results releases; Screener's consolidated profit is slightly higher. Screener shows annual history only for Mar 2021 onwards, so some long-term growth points show n/a.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 14 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope -0.20%/day
Bearish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.20% a day — a short-term downtrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return -2.9%
Neutral
The 100-session trend line was down (-0.02%/day) and the stock was -2.9% over three months, so the medium-term picture was neutral.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -12.8%
Bearish
Compared with a year earlier the price was -12.8%. A weak year for the stock.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 33.91 / 30W 34.45
Bearish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 34.07→36.53; lows 32.26→33.91
Bullish
The two most recent swing points showed higher swing highs and higher swing lows — classic uptrend structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
15.3
Neutral
ADX at 15.3 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 22.3 / –DI 20.2
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
34.43 (-2.2%)
Bearish
Close of 33.68 was 2.2% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
33.97 (-0.9%)
Bearish
Close of 33.68 was 0.9% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
35.86 (-6.1%)
Bearish
Close of 33.68 was 6.1% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 34.06 / 21E 34.11
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 14 Jul 2026.
The 50-day average was 5.3% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
-0.1% in 20 sessions
Neutral
The 50-day average fell 0.1% over the past month — flattening.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
34 / 34 / 34 / 36
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
34.15 (-1.4%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 34.15; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
45.7
Neutral
RSI at 45.7 was in the neutral 45–55 zone.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -0.00 / signal 0.07
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-0.10 → -0.07
Bullish
The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.18 (bands 33.25–35.61)
Neutral
%B of 0.18 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 6.8% (21st pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 21st percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹0.74 (2.2% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹0.74, or 2.2% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
23.5% vs 1Y 25.8%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 23.5%, close to the one-year level of 25.8%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
32.63–35.59
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.14
Neutral
A beta of 1.14 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.56× / 5-day 0.76×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.56× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.76× — lighter than usual participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.79
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 1.79× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price fell — volume diverged from price.
About ₹15 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — moderately liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
31.38
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 31.38, 7.3% below the close.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
34.08 / 34.67 / 36.10
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 34.08, 1.2% above the close, then 34.67, 36.10.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 33.97 | R1 34.65 | S1 32.99
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 33.97; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 33 | 38.2% 34 | 50.0% 34 | 61.8% 35
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month fall from 37.59 to 31.20, the close was nearest the 38.2% retracement at 33.64.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 41.80 / L 31.20
Neutral
The close was 19.4% below the 52-week high and 7.9% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
none
Neutral
No unfilled price gaps in the last six months.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
broad sideways range
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: broad sideways range. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 33.28–36.53
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 33.28–36.53.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary red candle
Neutral
On 14 Jul the candle opened 33.95, ranged 33.56–34.20 and closed 33.68: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 33.80–33.83; Tenkan 34.11 / Kijun 34.39
Bearish
Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -0.9% / 3M -2.9%
Bearish
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 2.9 points over three months and underperformed by 0.9 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty Bank
3M -5.7%
Bearish
Against its sector index (Nifty Bank) the stock was 5.7 points behind over three months.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
6 bullish · 17 bearish · 26 neutral · 0 caution
Bearish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 31.38, resistance 34.08. This is a description of the chart on 14 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 14 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 14 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
12.0×
Neutral
At ₹33.68 the market valued the company at about ₹64,814 crore, or 12.0× the ₹5,420 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
1.75×
Neutral
Market cap was 1.75× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹36,991 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Revenue (interest earned)
2.03×
Neutral
Market cap was 2.03× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹31,899 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
Profit / Book (earnings power)
14.7%
Neutral
Trailing profit was 14.7% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 1.75× for.
How to read: Information only.
5
Earnings yield
8.4%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹8.4 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
0.32
Bullish
P/E of 12.0 divided by 3-year profit growth of 37.1% a year gives a PEG of 0.32. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
n/a
Neutral
Dividend history in our data window was not available.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹64,814 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.65 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹34.90 vs ₹33.68
Bullish
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹34.90; the price was 3% below it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+13.3%
Bullish
Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹31,896 crore, +13.3% versus FY25.
NIM — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was 3.25% in Jan–Mar 2026 (as reported). Above ~3.5% is strong for an Indian bank.
Bullish 3.5% or more · Bearish below 3.0% · Neutral 3.0–3.5%.
19
Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)
+11.1%
Bullish
Core interest income after interest expense was ₹3,470 crore, +11.1% year on year (standalone, as reported).
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
1 strength(s) · 5 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company has delivered good profit growth of 48.2% CAGR over last 5 years. Weaknesses: Though the company is reporting repeated profits, it is not paying out dividend; Company has low interest coverage ratio; Company has a low return on equity of 12.6% over last 3 years; Contingent liabilities of Rs.1,71,517 Cr; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
21 bullish · 1 bearish · 26 neutral · 1 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 14 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 12.0×, P/B 1.75×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 14 Apr 2026 – 14 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
29 Apr 2026IOB reports Q4 FY26 standalone net profit of Rs 1,505 crore, up 43.2% YoY — Net interest income rose 11.11% to Rs 3,470 crore; gross NPA fell to 1.42% and net NPA to 0.21%; CRAR 19.78%. Total advances grew 24.16% and deposits 18.03% YoY. source
21 May 2026IOB board approves equity raise of up to Rs 5,000 crore for FY27 — The board cleared raising up to Rs 5,000 crore via FPO, rights, QIP or preferential issue, subject to approvals, plus up to Rs 1,000 crore of Basel III Tier II bonds. source
02 Jun 2026IOB receives IFSCA licence for IFSC Banking Unit in GIFT City — The bank received a licence from IFSCA to set up an IFSC Banking Unit at GIFT City, Gujarat, to offer offshore and foreign-currency banking services. source
07 Jul 2026IOB shareholders approve Rs 5,000 crore equity fundraising at 26th AGM — All agenda resolutions were passed at the AGM held by video conference, including authority to raise up to Rs 5,000 crore of equity in FY2026-27. source
14 Jul 2026IOB schedules board meeting on July 20 to approve Q1 FY27 results — The bank intimated that its board would meet on July 20, 2026 to consider results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, followed by an earnings call. source
What happened next (14 Jul 2026 → 15 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹33.68 to ₹30.74 by 15 Oct 2026 (-8.7%) while the Nifty 50 moved -4.4% — underperforming by 4.3 points.
Highest ₹36.20 on 21 Jul 2026; lowest ₹30.06 on 13 Oct 2026.
S1 31.38: broken on a closing basis on 29 Sep 2026.
R1 34.08: cleared on a closing basis on 20 Jul 2026.
R2 34.67: cleared on a closing basis on 20 Jul 2026.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
20 Jul 2026IOB Q1 FY27 net profit rises 49.3% YoY to Rs 1,659 crore — NII rose 34.3% to Rs 3,688 crore; gross NPA 1.33% and net NPA 0.18%; CRAR 19.36%. Advances grew 22.75% and deposits 13.72% YoY. source
24 Jul 2026IOB files Q1 FY27 earnings call transcript; management guides 13-14% minimum credit growth — Management indicated NIM around 3.3-3.4% and said the Rs 5,000 crore equity raise may come in Q3 or Q4 depending on market conditions. source
03 Oct 2026IOB discloses Rs 3,165 crore outstanding debt securities as of Sept 30, 2026 — In a half-yearly disclosure the bank listed four outstanding bonds with coupons from 7.80% to 9.0802%, three carrying call options subject to RBI approval. source
Educational summary. On 14 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -8.7% against -4.4% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Indian Overseas Bank today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 17 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50, Nifty Bank via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
More case studies today
₹496.95close 14 Jul
Railway catering, ticketing & tourism (PSU)NSE: IRCTCData as of 14 Jul 2026