Railway catering, ticketing & tourism (PSU)Historical case study · data as of 14 Jul 2026 · published 17 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation — 100-point case study
How Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 14 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 14 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope -0.28%/day
Bearish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.28% a day — a short-term downtrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return -8.4%
Bearish
The 100-session trend line was down (-0.15%/day) and the stock was -8.4% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -35.5%
Bearish
Compared with a year earlier the price was -35.5%. A weak year for the stock.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 516.98 / 30W 563.57
Bearish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 547.65→535.00; lows 503.00→507.40
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
16.1
Neutral
ADX at 16.1 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 16.4 / –DI 23.8
Bearish
–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
509.43 (-2.4%)
Bearish
Close of 496.95 was 2.4% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
523.58 (-5.1%)
Bearish
Close of 496.95 was 5.1% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
610.04 (-18.5%)
Bearish
Close of 496.95 was 18.5% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 502.25 / 21E 508.26
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 14 May 2026.
The 50-day average was 14.2% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
-2.4% in 20 sessions
Bearish
The 50-day average fell 2.4% over the past month — declining.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
509 / 524 / 539 / 610
Bearish
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bearish (20 < 50 < 100 < 200).
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
502.73 (-1.2%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 502.73; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
37.0
Bearish
RSI at 37.0 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
bullish divergence
Bullish
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI made a higher low — selling momentum was fading.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -6.71 / signal -6.42
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-0.69 → -0.29
Bullish
The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.16 (bands 490.85–528.01)
Neutral
%B of 0.16 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 7.3% (32nd pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 32nd percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹8.47 (1.7% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹8.47, or 1.7% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
18.0% vs 1Y 21.1%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 18.0%, close to the one-year level of 21.1%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
492.06–523.52
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.07
Neutral
A beta of 1.07 means the stock tended to move roughly in line with the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 1.36× / 5-day 1.08×
Neutral
The final session traded 1.36× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.08× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.02
Neutral
Average volume on up days was 1.02× that on down days — balanced.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV falling
Bearish
OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹42 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — moderately liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
492.65
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 492.65, 0.9% below the close.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
513.90 / 531.15 / 545.77
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 513.90, 3.4% above the close, then 531.15, 545.77.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 502.28 | R1 508.57 | S1 490.67
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 502.28; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 536 | 38.2% 563 | 50.0% 585 | 61.8% 606
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month fall from 676.50 to 492.65, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 536.04.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 798.60 / L 492.65
Bearish
The close was 37.8% below the 52-week high and 0.9% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
2 open; latest gap-down 27 May at 536.30
Neutral
There were 2 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 27 May 2026, left an open level at 536.30 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
falling channel
Bearish
Rule-based pattern scan: falling channel — successive lower highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 496.00–529.85
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 496.00–529.85.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary red candle
Neutral
On 14 Jul the candle opened 500.10, ranged 496.05–501.40 and closed 496.95: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 533.74–536.97; Tenkan 504.95 / Kijun 513.85
Bearish
Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -6.5% / 3M -8.4%
Bearish
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 8.4 points over three months and underperformed by 6.5 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M -18.1%
Bearish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 18.1 points behind the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
2 bullish · 26 bearish · 19 neutral · 2 caution
Bearish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 492.65, resistance 513.90. This is a description of the chart on 14 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 14 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 14 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
28.5×
Neutral
At ₹496.95 the market valued the company at about ₹39,726 crore, or 28.5× the ₹1,393 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
9.22×
Neutral
Market cap was 9.22× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹4,309 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
7.62×
Neutral
The company was valued at 7.62× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹5,215 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
23.9×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹81 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 23.9× trailing operating profit of ₹1,665 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
3.5%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹3.5 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
2.49
Bearish
P/E of 28.5 divided by 3-year profit growth of 11.5% a year gives a PEG of 2.49. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
1.91%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹9.5 a share, a 1.91% yield on the ₹496.95 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹39,726 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.40 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹145.38 vs ₹496.95
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹145.38; the price was 242% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+11.6%
Bullish
Revenue for FY26 was ₹5,215 crore, +11.6% versus FY25.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
3 strength(s) · 1 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company is almost debt free; Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 36.8%; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 49.0%. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 8.66 times its book value. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
13 bullish · 4 bearish · 32 neutral · 0 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 14 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 28.5×, P/B 9.22×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 14 Apr 2026 – 14 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
26 May 2026IRCTC reports Q4 FY26 results; net profit declines year on year, final dividend of Rs 0.50 recommended — Q4 FY26 revenue from operations was about Rs 1,459.7 crore (up about 15% YoY); PAT was about Rs 326.4 crore versus Rs 357.5 crore a year earlier. The board recommended a final dividend of Rs 0.50 per share. source
12 Jun 2026Railway Minister says upgraded IRCTC ticket booking website to launch by July 15, 2026 — Ashwini Vaishnaw announced at an event in Rajasthan that a new IRCTC website with an improved booking system would be ready by July 15, 2026, after students raised issues with the current platform including CAPTCHA. source
15 Jun 2026IRCTC CFO Sudhir Kumar repatriated; Rajneesh Narain takes over as Director (Finance) — Per a regulatory filing, CFO Sudhir Kumar was relieved on June 15, 2026 under a Railway Board order dated June 3; Rajneesh Narain was appointed Additional Director (Finance) from the same date. source
24 Jun 2026IRCTC CMD Sanjay Kumar Jain resigns; Railways Ministry accepts exit effective July 20 — Sanjay Kumar Jain, CMD since February 2024, resigned citing personal reasons; the Ministry of Railways accepted it in a communication dated June 22, effective July 20, 2026. source
What happened next (14 Jul 2026 → 15 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹496.95 to ₹469.35 by 15 Oct 2026 (-5.6%) while the Nifty 50 moved -4.4% — underperforming by 1.2 points.
Highest ₹527.00 on 10 Aug 2026; lowest ₹446.50 on 16 Sep 2026.
S1 492.65: broken on a closing basis on 28 Jul 2026.
R1 513.90: cleared on a closing basis on 06 Aug 2026.
R2 531.15: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 12 Aug 2026): revenue ₹1,370 crore (+18.1% YoY), net profit ₹330 crore (-0.3% YoY), operating margin 28% vs 34% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
20 Jul 2026Rahul Himalian takes additional charge as IRCTC CMD — Rahul Himalian, Director (Tourism & Marketing), was given additional charge of Chairman and Managing Director from July 20, 2026 until a regular CMD is appointed. source
12 Aug 2026IRCTC Q1 FY27 results: revenue up 18%, net profit flat at about Rs 330 crore — Board approved unaudited Q1 FY27 results on August 12, 2026: revenue from operations Rs 1,369.53 crore (up 18.1% YoY), net profit Rs 329.86 crore versus Rs 330.45 crore; total expenses rose 28.4%. source
05 Sep 2026IRCTC sets 27th AGM for September 29, record date September 22 for final dividend — IRCTC scheduled its AGM by video conference on September 29, 2026 and fixed September 22, 2026 as the record date for the FY26 final dividend. source
29 Sep 2026IRCTC holds 27th AGM; final dividend of Rs 0.50 per share declared — Shareholders approved FY26 financial statements and a final dividend of Rs 0.50 per share, and appointments including Rajneesh Narain as Director (Finance). source
Educational summary. On 14 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -5.6% against -4.4% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 17 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction