Renewable-energy lender (government NBFC)Historical case study · data as of 14 Jul 2026 · published 17 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency — 100-point case study
How Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 14 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: IREDA does not take deposits, so CASA and deposit-growth points show n/a; loan-book growth is used in place of advances growth. Some Q4 FY26 lender metrics (NII, NIM) were not found in a source and show n/a.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 14 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope -0.19%/day
Bearish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.19% a day — a short-term downtrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return -1.3%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.06%/day) and the stock was -1.3% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -23.2%
Bearish
Compared with a year earlier the price was -23.2%. A weak year for the stock.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 126.65 / 30W 127.58
Bearish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 135.50→133.19; lows 122.50→117.75
Bearish
The two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
16.2
Neutral
ADX at 16.2 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 27.0 / –DI 26.0
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
126.51 (-3.5%)
Bearish
Close of 122.08 was 3.5% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
127.14 (-4.0%)
Bearish
Close of 122.08 was 4.0% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
133.78 (-8.7%)
Bearish
Close of 122.08 was 8.7% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 124.63 / 21E 125.56
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 08 Jul 2026.
The 50-day average was 5.0% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
-0.5% in 20 sessions
Bearish
The 50-day average fell 0.5% over the past month — declining.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
127 / 127 / 125 / 134
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
125.10 (-2.4%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 125.10; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
42.2
Bearish
RSI at 42.2 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -0.77 / signal -0.34
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-0.37 → -0.43
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.05 (bands 121.59–131.43)
Neutral
%B of 0.05 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 7.8% (4th pct of 6M)
Caution
Band width was at the 4th percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown).
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹3.07 (2.5% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹3.07, or 2.5% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
28.0% vs 1Y 30.4%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 28.0%, close to the one-year level of 30.4%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
119.51–131.52
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.42
Neutral
A beta of 1.42 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 1.05× / 5-day 0.95×
Neutral
The final session traded 1.05× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.95× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.47
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 1.47× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price fell — volume diverged from price.
About ₹65 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
118.06 / 112.07 / 109.33
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 118.06, 3.4% below the close, then 112.07, 109.33.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
125.67 / 129.69 / 135.49
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 125.67, 2.9% above the close, then 129.69, 135.49.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 124.27 | R1 127.98 | S1 118.36
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 124.27; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 118 | 38.2% 123 | 50.0% 128 | 61.8% 132
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month fall from 146.90 to 108.65, the close was nearest the 38.2% retracement at 123.26.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 170.16 / L 108.65
Neutral
The close was 28.3% below the 52-week high and 12.4% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
2 open; latest gap-up 12 Jun at 119.40
Neutral
There were 2 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 12 Jun 2026, left an open level at 119.40 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
pullback inside a larger uptrend
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: pullback inside a larger uptrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 120.55–133.19
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 120.55–133.19.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary red candle
Neutral
On 14 Jul the candle opened 123.60, ranged 121.50–124.19 and closed 122.08: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 125.75–129.55; Tenkan 125.36 / Kijun 125.47
Bearish
Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -1.9% / 3M -1.3%
Neutral
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 1.3 points over three months and underperformed by 1.9 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M -7.2%
Bearish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 7.2 points behind the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
5 bullish · 21 bearish · 21 neutral · 2 caution
Bearish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 118.06, resistance 125.67. This is a description of the chart on 14 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 14 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 14 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
18.3×
Neutral
At ₹122.08 the market valued the company at about ₹34,343 crore, or 18.3× the ₹1,874 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
2.49×
Neutral
Market cap was 2.49× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹13,785 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Revenue (interest earned)
4.13×
Neutral
Market cap was 4.13× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹8,310 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
Profit / Book (earnings power)
13.6%
Neutral
Trailing profit was 13.6% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 2.49× for.
How to read: Information only.
5
Earnings yield
5.5%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹5.5 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
n/m
Neutral
PEG is not meaningful because 3-year profit growth was not available. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
0.49%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹0.6 a share, a 0.49% yield on the ₹122.08 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹34,343 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.34 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹85.70 vs ₹122.08
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹85.70; the price was 42% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+23.4%
Bullish
Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹8,339 crore, +23.4% versus FY25.
Not available. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15
Profit CAGR (3 years)
n/a
Neutral
Not available. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
26.1%
Caution
Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 26.1% a year. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17
EPS growth FY26 (reported)
+5.5%
Neutral
Reported EPS went from ₹6.32 to ₹6.67 (+5.5%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
0 strength(s) · 2 weakness(es)
Neutral
No strengths flagged. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
8 bullish · 3 bearish · 36 neutral · 2 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 14 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 18.3×, P/B 2.49×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 14 Apr 2026 – 14 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
22 Apr 2026IREDA shares rise about 9% to Rs 140.45 after two-session decline — The stock closed 8.96% higher at Rs 140.45 on heavy volume; the report cited the company's FY26 business update showing loan sanctions up 9% to Rs 51,883 crore, disbursements up 16% to Rs 34,946 crore and the loan book up 22% to Rs 93,075 crore. source
29 May 2026IREDA Q4 FY26 net profit slips about 1.8% YoY to around Rs 493 crore — In results released on Friday 29 May, quarterly profit was Rs 492.63-492.75 crore versus about Rs 501.6 crore a year earlier; the year-end loan book was Rs 93,069 crore, up 22%. source
01 Jun 2026IREDA reports FY26 profit of Rs 1,873 crore; gross NPA 3.49%, CRAR 20.59% — Full-year FY26 profit rose about 10%, net worth reached Rs 13,781 crore, gross and net NPA stood at 3.49% and 1.29%, and capital adequacy improved to 20.59% from 17.77%; a final dividend was recommended subject to shareholder approval. source
02 Jun 2026IREDA shares fall up to 8% in two sessions after Q4 results — The stock fell 5.9% on 1 June and touched an intraday low of Rs 122.90 on 2 June following the Q4 FY26 results. source
What happened next (14 Jul 2026 → 16 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹122.08 to ₹108.80 by 16 Oct 2026 (-10.9%) while the Nifty 50 moved -3.8% — underperforming by 7.1 points.
Highest ₹123.90 on 03 Aug 2026; lowest ₹103.41 on 08 Oct 2026.
S1 118.06: broken on a closing basis on 12 Aug 2026.
S2 112.07: broken on a closing basis on 09 Sep 2026.
R1 125.67: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 129.69: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 03 Aug 2026): reported profit ₹337 crore (+37.0% YoY), NIM 3.75%, gross NPA 3.76%, net NPA 1.23%.
Later news
03 Aug 2026IREDA Q1 FY27 standalone profit up 37% to Rs 337 crore; loan book Rs 94,936 crore — Profit after tax rose to Rs 337 crore from Rs 247 crore, the loan book grew 19% YoY, revenue from operations rose 15% to Rs 2,250 crore, and net NPA improved to 1.23% from 2.06%. source
22 Aug 2026IREDA sets 11 September record date for Rs 0.75 final dividend; four senior managers cease to be SMP — The proposed FY26 final dividend of Rs 0.75 per share, subject to AGM approval, takes the total FY26 dividend to Rs 1.35 including the Rs 0.60 interim; four project-division managers ceased to be senior management personnel effective 22 August. source
29 Sep 2026IREDA holds 39th AGM, releases first ESG report — At its 39th annual general meeting the company reported an FY26 loan book of Rs 93,069 crore and released its first ESG report for FY2025-26. source
Educational summary. On 14 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -10.9% against -3.8% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 17 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction