Vehicle-finance NBFCHistorical case study · data as of 16 Jul 2026 · published 19 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services — 100-point case study
How Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 16 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: A 1-for-8 rights issue at ₹194 (record date 14 May 2025) took place just before the price window; Yahoo's price history does not appear to adjust for it. Asset-quality figures are from company and press reports (net stage-3 for Q4 FY26 was not disclosed).
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 16 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.63%/day
Bullish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.63% a day — a short-term uptrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +7.3%
Bearish
The 100-session trend line was down (-0.14%/day) and the stock was +7.3% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +21.8%
Bullish
Compared with a year earlier the price was +21.8%. A strong positive year.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 312.42 / 30W 332.98
Neutral
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 341.00→304.05; lows 274.35→288.70
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
26.5
Bullish
ADX at 26.5 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 27.9 / –DI 19.6
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
319.55 (+0.7%)
Bullish
Close of 321.85 was 0.7% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
310.87 (+3.5%)
Bullish
Close of 321.85 was 3.5% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
328.74 (-2.1%)
Bearish
Close of 321.85 was 2.1% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 326.83 / 21E 320.45
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 25 Jun 2026.
The 50-day average was 5.4% below the 200-day. The most recent signal was a death cross on 14 May 2026.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+2.4% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 2.4% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
320 / 311 / 318 / 329
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
330.18 (-2.5%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 330.18; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
53.0
Neutral
RSI at 53.0 was in the neutral 45–55 zone.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 7.09 / signal 7.39
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
3.45 → -0.30
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.54 (bands 288.70–350.40)
Neutral
%B of 0.54 — inside the bands, upper half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 19.3% (65th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 65th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹10.97 (3.4% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹10.97, or 3.4% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
40.1% vs 1Y 36.6%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 40.1%, close to the one-year level of 36.6%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
299.18–342.71
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.57
Neutral
A beta of 1.57 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.44× / 5-day 0.47×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.44× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.47× — lighter than usual participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.81
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 1.81× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹148 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
304.57 / 292.82 / 272.12
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 304.57, 5.7% below the close, then 292.82, 272.12.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
330.92 / 340.75 / 347.00
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 330.92, 2.8% above the close, then 340.75, 347.00.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 326.95 | R1 341.90 | S1 306.90
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 326.95; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 302 | 38.2% 320 | 50.0% 335 | 61.8% 349
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month fall from 396.90 to 272.65, the close was nearest the 38.2% retracement at 320.11.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 412.20 / L 246.35
Neutral
The close was 21.9% below the 52-week high and 30.6% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
3 open; latest gap-down 13 Jul at 338.40
Neutral
There were 3 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 13 Jul 2026, left an open level at 338.40 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 288.70–347.00
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 288.70–347.00.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary red candle
Neutral
On 16 Jul the candle opened 327.00, ranged 320.35–327.30 and closed 321.85: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 301.91–306.82; Tenkan 333.68 / Kijun 310.68
Bullish
Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M +7.7% / 3M +8.0%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 8.0 points over three months and outperformed by 7.7 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M -2.7%
Bearish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 2.7 points behind the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
16 bullish · 8 bearish · 25 neutral · 0 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 304.57, resistance 330.92. This is a description of the chart on 16 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 16 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 16 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
15.6×
Neutral
At ₹321.85 the market valued the company at about ₹44,678 crore, or 15.6× the ₹2,861 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
1.68×
Neutral
Market cap was 1.68× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹26,639 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Revenue (interest earned)
2.13×
Neutral
Market cap was 2.13× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹21,006 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
Profit / Book (earnings power)
10.7%
Neutral
Trailing profit was 10.7% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 1.68× for.
How to read: Information only.
5
Earnings yield
6.4%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹6.4 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
1.37
Neutral
P/E of 15.6 divided by 3-year profit growth of 11.4% a year gives a PEG of 1.37. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
2.33%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹7.5 a share, a 2.33% yield on the ₹321.85 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹44,678 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.45 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹298.31 vs ₹321.85
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹298.31; the price was 8% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+13.6%
Bullish
Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹21,041 crore, +13.6% versus FY25.
NIM — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was 7.50% in Jan–Mar 2026 (as reported). Above ~3.5% is strong for an Indian bank.
Bullish 3.5% or more · Bearish below 3.0% · Neutral 3.0–3.5%.
19
Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)
+27.0%
Bullish
Core interest income after interest expense was ₹2,739 crore, +27.0% year on year (standalone, as reported).
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
1 strength(s) · 3 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 37.4%. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; Company has a low return on equity of 11.1% over last 3 years; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
13 bullish · 1 bearish · 34 neutral · 1 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 16 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 15.6×, P/B 1.68×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 16 Apr 2026 – 16 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
24 Apr 2026Mahindra Finance Q4 FY26: standalone PAT up 55% to Rs 873 crore; final dividend Rs 7.50 — Standalone Q4 PAT Rs 873 cr (+55% YoY), NII Rs 2,739 cr (+27%), NIM 7.5%, GS3 3.4%, CRAR 18.8%, business AUM Rs 1,34,096 cr (+12%). Consolidated FY26 PAT Rs 2,861 cr (+27%). source
25 Apr 2026Mahindra Finance Q4 PAT climbs 55% YoY to Rs 873 cr — Report notes Q4 disbursements Rs 17,184 cr (+11%), collection efficiency 98%, Stage-3 3.4%, Stage-2 4.8%; shares fell 0.88% to Rs 294.30 on BSE. source
12 May 2026Mahindra Finance raises Rs 875 crore via debenture issue — Private placement of 87,500 secured NCDs (base Rs 750 cr + green shoe Rs 125 cr) at a 7.90% fixed coupon. source
19 May 2026Mahindra Finance allots Rs 2,200 crore floating rate NCDs — Company raised Rs 2,200 cr through secured floating-rate NCDs on private placement, following its strong Q4. source
02 Jul 2026Mahindra Finance Q1 FY27 disbursements grow 21% to about Rs 15,560 crore — Business update: Q1 disbursements ~Rs 15,560 cr (+21% YoY), business assets ~Rs 1,37,300 cr (+12%), collection efficiency 95%. source
What happened next (16 Jul 2026 → 16 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹321.85 to ₹311.55 by 16 Oct 2026 (-3.2%) while the Nifty 50 moved -3.8% — outperforming by 0.6 points.
Highest ₹415.00 on 10 Aug 2026; lowest ₹309.20 on 08 Oct 2026.
S1 304.57: held on a closing basis.
S2 292.82: held on a closing basis.
R1 330.92: cleared on a closing basis on 21 Jul 2026.
R2 340.75: cleared on a closing basis on 21 Jul 2026.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and crossed above on 21 Jul 2026.
21 Jul 2026Mahindra Finance Q1 net profit surges 70% to Rs 898.65 crore — Standalone Q1 FY27 PAT Rs 898.65 cr vs Rs 529.50 cr; GS3 3.45% vs 3.85% a year earlier; total income Rs 4,973.95 cr. source
22 Jul 2026M&M Financial shares surge 10% as rally continues after strong results — Stock rose up to 10% after an 8.46% gain the previous session; Q1 profit beat estimates by ~25%, brokers upgraded to Buy. source
22 Jul 2026Mahindra Finance Q1 FY27: NII Rs 2,766 crore, NIM 7.3%, CRAR 18.5% — NII up 21.1% YoY, NIM 7.3% vs 6.7%, business AUM Rs 1,37,449 cr (+12.7%), consolidated PAT Rs 927 cr (+75%). source
02 Oct 2026M&M Financial Services Q2 disbursements rise 22% YoY to Rs 16,490 crore — Q2 FY27 business update: disbursements ~Rs 16,490 cr (+22%), business assets ~Rs 1,46,300 cr (+15%), collection efficiency 97%, Stage-3 3.35-3.45%. source
05 Oct 2026M&M Financial Services jumps as Q2 FY27 disbursements rise 22% — Shares rose 5.12% to Rs 336.50 intraday after the Q2 business update. source
Educational summary. On 16 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -3.2% against -3.8% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 19 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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